Vulnerable Chalk List for Wednesday 4-30

[midnight]

The following list of horses should NOT be played. Instead, look for something else in the race. Each horse has morning line odds of 5-2 or less, and they all have problems. A few will win, but overall, betting horses on this list will lead to a very low ROI (in the area of 0.50 for every 1.00).


RACE Track SC Horse Name

8 AQU 1 Parnell Square
8 BEU 3 Hutzelhawk
5 CT 8 Klassic Kordell
9 CT 7 This Is I Know
2 DEL 5 Smile Pretty
4 HOL 5 Mr Freckles
6 IND 2 Brown Screen
2 SUF 8 Michael's Pine
6 BM 6 Our Gal Irish

[Zaf]

Interesting , Would you care to elaborate on what sort of problems ?

ZAFONIC

[midnight]

By "Problems", I mean that the horses have some flaw in their form cycle, their running style vs. the pace matchup today, their raw ability vs. the field, or some other thing that gives them far less of a chance of winning (in my opinion) than the odds they will be going off at.

Results today:

8 BEU 3 Hutzelhawk -- 3-1 6th -- raced yesterday. It got stuck in today's list by mistake.


RACE Track SC Horse Name

8 AQU 1 Parnell Square 7-2 6th
5 CT 8 Klassic Kordell 5-2 2nd
9 CT 7 This Is I Know 5-1 3rd
2 DEL 5 Smile Pretty 5-2 2nd
4 HOL 5 Mr Freckles 4-1 5th
6 IND 2 Brown Screen 5-1 2nd
2 SUF 8 Michael's Pine 5-1 2nd
6 BM 6 Our Gal Irish 5-2 6th


Even though none of them won, they did very well compared to how these type of horses usually do. It's not unusual to have eight horses, a $6.00 winner, and all the rest out of the money. Of course they do win sometimes, but overall, their ROI is horrible.

[Zaf]

This is good information. How is it generated?

ZAFONIC

[midnight]

The program looks for a horse that is 5-2 or less on the morning line and either:

1) Has a bad form cycle analysis (the program uses various alogrithms for this)

2) Does not have the ability to match up to the field (power rating not in top 3)

3) Has a running style that does not match up to the pace scenario today (example: E in a race with two faster E's).

4) Has some other defect that has a low ROI.

[ponyplayer]

Cool. :cool:

[Zaf]

Originally posted by midnight
The program looks for a horse that is 5-2 or less on the morning line and either:

1) Has a bad form cycle analysis (the program uses various alogrithms for this)

2) Does not have the ability to match up to the field (power rating not in top 3)

3) Has a running style that does not match up to the pace scenario today (example: E in a race with two faster E's).

4) Has some other defect that has a low ROI.

Is this your program ? It it for sale ?

ZAFONIC

[midnight]

The program isn't for sale.

I'm working on duplicating the same features of the program in HTR. If I can manage this, I'll have Ken Massa program my version with these built in and an export file to do MS Access research with.