View Full Version : Would MTB have won with Borel in the irons?
Saratoga_Mike
05-16-2009, 08:20 PM
RA was ultra-impressive, but I have to wonder if MTB would have won the race with a ground-saving, patented Borel ride? Congrats to RA and MTB-backers. She proved herself to be a truly special filly, and he proved the Derby wasn't a fluke. I was wrong on both counts.
Rapid Grey
05-16-2009, 08:25 PM
Actually I think Mike Smith is a better fit for RA than Calvin is, and vice versa of course with MTB.
Saratoga_Mike
05-16-2009, 08:26 PM
Actually I think Mike Smith is a better fit for RA than Calvin is, and vice versa of course with MTB.
Even today?
Greyfox
05-16-2009, 08:28 PM
They took the rail away from MTB today. He had no choice but to circle.
Calvin would have had to do the same today if he were aboard.
Rapid Grey
05-16-2009, 08:46 PM
Even today?
Don't think it would have mattered.
If you would have switched jockeys today I think Smith takes RA back a little more than Borel did, likely a half length off of Big Drama rather than leading down the backstretch. Would have softened the pace up a bit and saved more horse for the stretch.
Also think that Borel would have found a way to save more ground than Smith did, he always does. Would have still had the closing punch but don't think he would have caught the winner.
Just think Smith is better on a front-running type and Borel better on the one run closer.
OFFandRUNNING10
05-16-2009, 08:51 PM
there was no other route for MTB to take besides the one he did so no Borel wouldnt have made a difference. If he would have tried to run him up the rail he would have finished 6th
Robert Fischer
05-16-2009, 09:21 PM
both of these horses improved once Borel starting working them in the mornings.
Valuist
05-16-2009, 09:24 PM
There is one obvious question: if you are an owner or trainer and you insist on getting a rider who saves ground, why would you have Mike Smith ride your horse?
ghostyapper
05-16-2009, 09:28 PM
There is one obvious question: if you are an owner or trainer and you insist on getting a rider who saves ground, why would you have Mike Smith ride your horse?
It's gotta be b/c he's from new mexico. Everyone knows smith has been afraid of the rail for 20 years.
Oaklawn
05-16-2009, 09:59 PM
RA was ultra-impressive, but I have to wonder if MTB would have won the race with a ground-saving, patented Borel ride? Congrats to RA and MTB-backers. She proved herself to be a truly special filly, and he proved the Derby wasn't a fluke. I was wrong on both counts.
I was definitely thinking that very thing after the race. Mike went wide and if you look at the overhead replay, there was a brief opening on the rail at the top of the stretch that I know Borel would have charged into, Mike hesitated and it was gone.
NY BRED
05-16-2009, 10:10 PM
. Mike went wide and if you look at the overhead e was a brief opening on the rail at the top of the stretch that I know Borel would have charged into, Mike hesitated and it was gone.[/QUOTE]
right on, this could have been a legitimate Triple Crown contender...:bang:
pandy
05-17-2009, 12:06 AM
They took the rail away from MTB today. He had no choice but to circle.
Calvin would have had to do the same today if he were aboard.
You're right, Mike said after the race that he took a look inside and there was no way that was going to work today. He did a good job, he's a great rider.
Burls
05-17-2009, 03:04 AM
You can get a good look at MTB's race here, and judge for yourself.
http://www.truveo.com/preakness-overhead-cam/id/4057527187
812crew
05-17-2009, 03:59 AM
You can get a good look at MTB's race here, and judge for yourself.
http://www.truveo.com/preakness-overhead-cam/id/4057527187
That MTB iso-cam is awesome stuff! That guy can just flat out run his guts out when he wants to. I never thought he'd come close to equalling what he did last week, but I thought he was great today. Some unfortunate traffic problems at key moments got him second, but if Smith had been able to punch the holes perfectly, I really think MTB would have gotten there (not to say Borel could have done better. Who knows, really). Thanks for the link. I love this little guy! As happy as I was to see RA win it, I felt a little sad afterward, because MTB had more to give, he just ran out of room.
lamboguy
05-17-2009, 07:31 AM
That MTB iso-cam is awesome stuff! That guy can just flat out run his guts out when he wants to. I never thought he'd come close to equalling what he did last week, but I thought he was great today. Some unfortunate traffic problems at key moments got him second, but if Smith had been able to punch the holes perfectly, I really think MTB would have gotten there (not to say Borel could have done better. Who knows, really). Thanks for the link. I love this little guy! As happy as I was to see RA win it, I felt a little sad afterward, because MTB had more to give, he just ran out of room.
good observation. truly if rachel does run in the belmont she will be unbeatable no matter who rides her or the bird. but the bird is a great great horse in his own right. both bird and rachel will be better next time out.
there is no doubt that bird will be in the belmont, we will have to see with rachel how she eats and trains for her next step.
proximity
05-17-2009, 08:09 AM
i think the better question is if mine that bird would have won with steve asmussen training him?
let's face it, this (and the 5 pounds off) was the difference in the race.....
I think MTB wins with Borel. Even if he merely worked out a similar trip to Smith it would mean somebody other than Borel rides RA. And let's face it, Borel wasn't a passenger yesterday -- he knows her best and gave her the perfect ride from a tough post and got just enough out of her. Borel, to me anyway, seemed to show nervous relief post-race. I think he was surprised that she wasn't dominant. Even suggesting she didn't handle the surface too well. :rolleyes:
So to all those yearning for a Triple Crown winner -- Borel is your villain. ;)
He alone had the power to keep that dream alive this year. Ah, but Calvin is in love with the filly. :)
Bruddah
05-17-2009, 12:34 PM
If you watch the ISO Cam replay, it is obvious MTB wins this race if the race was longer. RA had gone as far as she could go. MTB was barely blowing when pulled up on the backside.
I don't think you can blame Mike smith's ride. The distance was just to short for MTB. RA was puking the bit in the last 50 yds of the Preakness. She's a great great filly but will be beaten handily in the Belmont, if she runs. Personally, I hope she doesn't. Her reputation is golden now, only to be tarnished in the Belmont. (JMHO)
Cangamble
05-17-2009, 12:38 PM
I have to think that knowing a horse is worth something especially going a distance of ground. There is no doubt in my mind that if Borel stuck with the Bird, the Bird would have run at least slightly better, and Rachel would have run slightly worse.
bishlap
05-17-2009, 01:28 PM
Mike Smith has never won a race on the rail in his life. Borel would have won the Preakness on MTB. However, Smith is a class act and dates a fine filly, so he shouldn't care too much what I think.
JustRalph
05-17-2009, 07:37 PM
If Borel was on Bird..........no way in hell he gets the rail............
they would have blocked it worse
812crew
05-17-2009, 07:41 PM
If Borel was on Bird..........no way in hell he gets the rail............
they would have blocked it worse
I totally agree. No way would they let him ride a duplicate race from the derby. John Velazquez was gunning for Borel even though he was on RA, forcing him to go much wider on the first turn than I think Borel wanted.
raybo
05-17-2009, 09:05 PM
If you watch the ISO Cam replay, it is obvious MTB wins this race if the race was longer. RA had gone as far as she could go. MTB was barely blowing when pulled up on the backside.
I don't think you can blame Mike smith's ride. The distance was just to short for MTB. RA was puking the bit in the last 50 yds of the Preakness. She's a great great filly but will be beaten handily in the Belmont, if she runs. Personally, I hope she doesn't. Her reputation is golden now, only to be tarnished in the Belmont. (JMHO)
Agreed, RA will not win the Belmont, MTB could very well do it though. His form appears to not have been hurt at all, and possibly will improve slightly. I don't think a softer pace will hurt MTB either, if the pace is too soft MTB will not lay last early. He has the best late run I've seen in quite some time, and, at 1 1/2m that will be a huge advantage.
IMO, RA will probably run but I think it might be a mistake for several reasons, among them: future financials, possible injuries, could dominate almost any race for fillies for quite some time to come, etc., etc.
Bettowin
05-17-2009, 10:31 PM
Watching to overhead MTB is starting to swing out and could have followed Musket Man on the inside and got through IMO but I had to watch it three times and didn't have to decide in a split second:) IMO, Borel would have tried to take MTB through on the inside and probably saved a lenght or two but that is pure speculation.
OFFandRUNNING10
05-17-2009, 10:44 PM
Watching to overhead MTB is starting to swing out and could have followed Musket Man on the inside and got through IMO but I had to watch it three times and didn't have to decide in a split second:) IMO, Borel would have tried to take MTB through on the inside and probably saved a lenght or two but that is pure speculation.
MTB already had a horse inside of him by the time any lane opened up on the rail especially to follow musket man through. Smith made the right choice with what was presented in front of him at that time. If he would have waited for some type of rail trip that may or may not have opened up he would have been further back before being able to make any type of move. Just accept the fact that he didnt get the absolute perfect trip and came up a little short today.
PaceAdvantage
05-18-2009, 12:52 AM
If you watch the ISO Cam replay, it is obvious MTB wins this race if the race was longer.Not obvious to me...after the wire is quite telling in this regard.
Watcher
05-18-2009, 12:59 AM
Not obvious to me...after the wire is quite telling in this regard.
I agree. Someone I was watching with started saying "MTB wins it if this is the Derby"...
However, the gallop out told a different story.
toussaud
05-18-2009, 01:00 AM
this is a silly arguement. if all 6F races were 12F, the horse that took them from gate to wire prob ably would ont have held on, but that does not mean he wasn't the best horse that day. he won the freaking race.
the race was 9.5 furlongs, and rachael got there first, therefore she won the race. I frankley do not care "well if the race were 2 furlongs longer"... becuase then you get into all possible senerios.. hell for all we know if the race was 12F musket man could have gotten up.
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