Mine that Bird is great

[jognlope]

because he was 2nd to Rachel. PErsonally I dont' give a sheet about Rachel winning. Do not cut down MTB from here on. He's great. Do I sound pouty? I am. I wanted MTB to beat her ass.

[RaceBookJoe]

because he was 2nd to Rachel. PErsonally I dont' give a sheet about Rachel winning. Do not cut down MTB from here on. He's great. Do I sound pouty? I am. I wanted MTB to beat her ass.

I hope he runs in the Belmont...that might be his race. rbj

[jjschade]

They could have caught her.

[Tom]

She ran like a girl.

[Canadian]

Glad to see the horse vindicated.

[toussaud]

mine that bird will go off at 3/5 in the belmont and beat the lioving crap out of that field. rachael won't run

[judd]

musket man allways in the money $

[toussaud]

you know who feels like a freakin idiot? me.

I had a trifecta ticket with Rachael, mine that bird, and papa clem.

How in the hell do you leave off a horse that has never finished out of the money I don't know but I did it.

[PaceAdvantage]

If Mine That Bird is great, what does that make Rachel Alexandra?

Freakin' amazing?

[jognlope]

hey you have two out of three....

[Pace Cap'n]

MTB is great enough to have passed all horses not named Rachael Alexandra in two straight races, most of them twice.

[toussaud]

hey you have two out of three....
but didn't bet the exacta like a dummie.

i made a nice profit on rachael so all is not lost but still. that's money in the wind

[Greyfox]

Except for a traffic problem and a pause Mine That Bird would have won.

[jognlope]

I'm so mad I could probably knock off 10 consults and 5 H&Ps in 20 minutes (urgh)

[lagavulin62]

I wish I could find a replay for that race. it looked to me it was all on smith. started off too slow, waited too late, and I need to see it again to know for sure but looked like he was running outside when making his move but then turned inside? someone please verify what happened. whatever I still think it was all on the jockey and he should have won.

[The Judge]

No Rachel the horse would be 2 for 2 and a big favorite to win the Belmont. He would have been worthy in my book to be a triple crown winner.

With a better trip he catches her, having said that she's huge and is a monster, did what was necessary to win, with-stood early pressure from Big Drama who ran a good race after the stall incident.

[lagavulin62]

I know everyone will disagree with me but this race proves to me the idiot I feel borel is. mtb lost the race and probably would have won had he had a better ride. this horse gets rested and he should be the best horse in the belmont. borel could be riding the best triple crown hopeful in a long time but he gave it all up for a filly? he's lucky he didn't lose this race. so he now has 2 triple crown wins on two separate horses when he might be running for the triple crown. well who gives a sheeeeeeeeeeeet. total dumb arse!!!

[depalma113]

Except for a traffic problem and a pause Mine That Bird would have won.

Yeah, and if the filly didn't turn 6 furlongs in 1:11, he is nowhere near her at the finish.

[Marshall Bennett]

Except for a traffic problem and a pause Mine That Bird would have won.
Yeah , I think especially when he steadied at the head of the stretch cost him that losing margin .

[Boris]

I wish I could find a replay for that race. it looked to me it was all on smith. started off too slow, waited too late, and I need to see it again to know for sure but looked like he was running outside when making his move but then turned inside? someone please verify what happened. whatever I still think it was all on the jockey and he should have won.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UmpYI6emqGo

[PaceAdvantage]

Except for a traffic problem and a pause Mine That Bird would have won.Yeah, and if RA didn't have to go in 23 and 23 and change the first two quarters while being dogged the entire way, she would have won by 5....

[tucker6]

Except for a traffic problem and a pause Mine That Bird would have won.
That's bull and you know it. They ran the Preakness and MTB finished SECOND. He didn't win. Period. When you run your races from the back of the pack, "traffic" is normal. I've watched the race several times already, and his trip really didn't have any traffic problems. Just the normal BS you get when 13 horses run. I like MTB, but he lost. Quit dreaming up excuses for him. He lost. I hope he does well in the Belmont.

[toussaud]

Yeah, and if RA didn't have to go in 23 and 23 and change the first two quarters while being dogged the entire way, she would have won by 5....

correct. if she gets to set 23/47 or 48 fractions she romps

[InsideThePylons-MW]

When you run your races from the back of the pack, "traffic" is normal.

Agree 100%

I've watched the race several times already, and his trip really didn't have any traffic problems.

Disagree 100%

[Boris]

Yeah, and if RA didn't have to go in 23 and 23 and change the first two quarters while being dogged the entire way, she would have won by 5....
I thought JV would have alot more help, but he did a good job. Pushed her a path wide at least on the first turn.

[JustRalph]

I don't know what race some of you guys were watching. I thought she was much the best. Mine that Bird was flattening out the last few jumps and I think she could have gone on pretty decent............but that's just me.........

I saw a typical race with a big closer who almost gets there.............happens all the time............... it all depends on pace

[tucker6]

I know everyone will disagree with me but this race proves to me the idiot I feel borel is. mtb lost the race and probably would have won had he had a better ride. this horse gets rested and he should be the best horse in the belmont. borel could be riding the best triple crown hopeful in a long time but he gave it all up for a filly? he's lucky he didn't lose this race. so he now has 2 triple crown wins on two separate horses when he might be running for the triple crown. well who gives a sheeeeeeeeeeeet. total dumb arse!!!
You are correct. I disagree with you. MTB got a good ride. Tell me what you believe Smith did that would be considered a "bad ride". Why is Borel "lucky"? Because he took RA to the lead as he should?? Because he fended off numerous attacks successfully??? Because he won the race???? You people are unbelievable. Calvin took the honorable route and stayed with a horse he's been on for some time and loves, literally. I bet Calvin's bank account agrees with you as well. NOT.

[ghostyapper]

correct. if she gets to set 23/47 or 48 fractions she romps

and if MTB doesn't go 4 paths wider than she does on the turn he wins

[ghostyapper]

I love it how with MTB being a closer "traffic problems are expected" but with RA being a front runner/stalker fast fractions are a major excuse?

[cmoore]

I don't know what race some of you guys were watching. I thought she was much the best. Mine that Bird was flattening out the last few jumps and I think she could have gone on pretty decent............but that's just me.........

I saw a typical race with a big closer who almost gets there.............happens all the time............... it all depends on pace

Flattening out..He was gaining every stride..Maybe Calvin shut down Rachel or stopped urging her..But by the overhead view..Mine That Bird was gaining not flattening out..Did she have more in the tank..Don't know..If she runs in the Belmont..We'll all know.

Prediction....Mine That Bird runs by them all in the Belmont..This horse can run all day long.

[menifee]

Everybody is right. The pace was quick and she ran a very tough race. It was not suicidal though.

He ran a great race too. He made that one great run. He did encounter traffic trouble and lost ground, but not that much to say he would have caught her without it.

If they meet in the Belmont it would be an interesting race. I think he would have a hard time catching her if she runs her top race, but he is a legitimate horse.

[toussaud]

in the gallop out he wasn't close. I don't think he passes her. maybe at a mile and a half I don't know.

but rachael just won the preakness. today is her day.

[ghostyapper]

in the gallop out he wasn't close. I don't think he passes her. maybe at a mile and a half I don't know.

but rachael just won the preakness. today is her day.

The gallop out is meaningless.

[ghostyapper]

Everybody is right. The pace was quick and she ran a very tough race. It was not suicidal though.

He ran a great race too. He made that one great run. He did encounter traffic trouble and lost ground, but not that much to say he would have caught her without it.

If they meet in the Belmont it would be an interesting race. I think he would have a hard time catching her if she runs her top race, but he is a legitimate horse.

Very well said. Obviously RA is a great horse and might be the best in the country but for those to have the opinion that no horse was in her class before the race and use the preakness to prove this are flat out wrong.

MTB can def run with her

[tucker6]

Very well said. Obviously RA is a great horse and might be the best in the country but for those to have the opinion that no horse was in her class before the race and use the preakness to prove this are flat out wrong.

MTB can def run with her
Good post yourself. MTB and RA are proving to be the class of this class.. What's up with FF?? Man, that colt is killing me. I am offically off that bandwagon.

[PaceAdvantage]

The gallop out is meaningless.I don't agree...

In any event, MTB is a much smaller horse, and I think these two races take a much bigger toll on MTB...

Plus, the Belmont is much kinder to RA's running style compared to MTB....

If they both meet in the Belmont, MTB has no chance against RA, unless she completely hates the surface.

[WinterTriangle]

you know who feels like a freakin idiot? me.

I had a trifecta ticket with Rachael, mine that bird, and papa clem.

How in the hell do you leave off a horse that has never finished out of the money I don't know but I did it.

Well, I started THAT topic here, about Musket Man (and Big Drama) never finishing out of the money in *any* race:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57816

and all I got was sarcasm returned. :rolleyes:

[ghostyapper]

I don't agree...

In any event, MTB is a much smaller horse, and I think these two races take a much bigger toll on MTB...

Plus, the Belmont is much kinder to RA's running style compared to MTB....

If they both meet in the Belmont, MTB has no chance against RA, unless she completely hates the surface.

Just cause a horse is smaller does not mean 3 races in 5 weeks will take more out of them than bigger horses. Some smaller horses recover quicker than bigger horses.

I'm not worried about MTB being tired in 3 weeks, at least no more than rachel is. No matter what anyone wants to say rachel had a real test today and she lost her invincibility. I'd take MTB to turn the tables on her in the belmont, they'll finish the same place their respective sire's finished.

[ghostyapper]

Good post yourself. MTB and RA are proving to be the class of this class.. What's up with FF?? Man, that colt is killing me. I am offically off that bandwagon.

Very disappointed in FF. I really liked him heading into the TC series and he's thrown in 2 awful races. Hopefully he can come back stronger in the summer. He's bred for the belmont but I don't see how they can send him with his current form.

[Greyfox]

Quit dreaming up excuses for him. .

I'm not dreaming up excuses for Mine That Bird.
Why would I do that? I had bet Rachel and three runners that didn't show up.
I didn't have Mine That Bird on any of my tickets. I thought he was a one time trick pony.
It turns out he wasn't. I'm simply stating what I saw.

[Derbyman32]

I don't agree...

In any event, MTB is a much smaller horse, and I think these two races take a much bigger toll on MTB...

Plus, the Belmont is much kinder to RA's running style compared to MTB....

If they both meet in the Belmont, MTB has no chance against RA, unless she completely hates the surface.

I gotta agree the Belmont typically favors horses who run like Rachel not a big run like Mine That Bird, today was his shot at beating her and he came up a little short.

[lagavulin62]

You are correct. I disagree with you. MTB got a good ride. Tell me what you believe Smith did that would be considered a "bad ride". Why is Borel "lucky"? Because he took RA to the lead as he should?? Because he fended off numerous attacks successfully??? Because he won the race???? You people are unbelievable. Calvin took the honorable route and stayed with a horse he's been on for some time and loves, literally. I bet Calvin's bank account agrees with you as well. NOT.


the ride was lost letting him sit back so long in such a short race.should have been at least to half the field at the half mile mark. I thought he cut him in, it's hard to tell on the tv when they keep switching back and forth but looks like at the last turn he had him where he needed to be but again should have had him up at earlier points. I wasn't commenting on borel's ride, only saying he's lucky mtb didn't catch him. had smith had him up earlier then mtb would have been able to challenge. I've been betting horses long enough to know that there always is a race behind the leaders, especially the last furlong. but you don't really think mtb's race was simply a horse overtaking beaten horses do you? you can at least give him more than that. if you think thats what it was you're going to be dissapointed come the belmont. i'd like to see that filly(rachel) run an everyday claiming "whoever can get to the half mile first" race in new york. you know that would never work there, or do you? as far as money goes, these guys are doing fine when they get to the level of borel. when you got a chance for history money plays no part, especially when you already have it. why don't you have a few words with steve cauthen. or better yet ask those jockeys who have come so close. desormoux comes to mind. do you think he was doing it for money? as far as loyalty goes, I doubt rachel would have kicked him had he decided to stay on mtb. and also for a single triple crown race we are talking the preakness. the bottom tier of triple crown races. if you could only win one of the three how many times do you think the preakness would be the first choice. some of you guys need to get a grip. all the gambling, handicapping, loyalty makes sense the rest of the year but for these three races you need to throw all that crap away and just enjoy it.

[GMB@BP]

I gotta agree the Belmont typically favors horses who run like Rachel not a big run like Mine That Bird, today was his shot at beating her and he came up a little short.

all races favor a horse with the style like RA.....it takes an exceptional horse to come from the back and have to loop horses, weave in and out yet win every time, none of those out there really.

[tucker6]

the ride was lost letting him sit back so long in such a short race.should have been at least to half the field at the half mile mark. I thought he cut him in, it's hard to tell on the tv when they keep switching back and forth but looks like at the last turn he had him where he needed to be but again should have had him up at earlier points. I wasn't commenting on borel's ride, only saying he's lucky mtb didn't catch him. had smith had him up earlier then mtb would have been able to challenge. I've been betting horses long enough to know that there always is a race behind the leaders, especially the last furlong. but you don't really think mtb's race was simply a horse overtaking beaten horses do you? you can at least give him more than that. if you think thats what it was you're going to be dissapointed come the belmont. i'd like to see that filly(rachel) run an everyday claiming "whoever can get to the half mile first" race in new york. you know that would never work there, or do you? as far as money goes, these guys are doing fine when they get to the level of borel. when you got a chance for history money plays no part, especially when you already have it. why don't you have a few words with steve cauthen. or better yet ask those jockeys who have come so close. desormoux comes to mind. do you think he was doing it for money? as far as loyalty goes, I doubt rachel would have kicked him had he decided to stay on mtb. and also for a single triple crown race we are talking the preakness. the bottom tier of triple crown races. if you could only win one of the three how many times do you think the preakness would be the first choice. some of you guys need to get a grip. all the gambling, handicapping, loyalty makes sense the rest of the year but for these three races you need to throw all that crap away and just enjoy it.
Listen, I like MTB too. But, he appears to be a one trick pony. When he is asked to rate or be on the lead, he can't do it. He likes a 4 furlong race at the end of a gallop. That wins at times (KD), but if you get caught in any traffic, you're toast. I don't think he had that bad of a trip, and almost won. If he had, I would have been rooting him on at the Belmont.

[fmolf]

both horses made a believer out of me!...as did pretender papa clem!....i had papa over ff ..mm...potn.....talk about a one trick pony!.....can't wait to see who's running in the belmont....smith could have given mtb a better ride ...in hindsight trying to go inside might have cost him his legitimate shot to catch her..most closers win out on the middle of the track away from traffic

[lagavulin62]

Listen, I like MTB too. But, he appears to be a one trick pony. When he is asked to rate or be on the lead, he can't do it. He likes a 4 furlong race at the end of a gallop. That wins at times (KD), but if you get caught in any traffic, you're toast. I don't think he had that bad of a trip, and almost won. If he had, I would have been rooting him on at the Belmont.


he APPEARED to be a one trip pony. I agree on the traffic prob for these types of horses. thats why I feel for such an important race you can't go out there and instruct the jockey to let the horse run his race. I wouldn't wan't to push him but we can't be too patient, it's a short race. I have no idea what the trainer told him, maybe smith did that on his own"? just guessing here. the belmont is long enough and the field is usually smaller so traffic shouldn't be a concern if he runs. I think if they both run in the belmont we got a chance for a very exciting race.

[JustRalph]

the ride was lost letting him sit back so long in such a short race.

somebody correct me...if I am wrong .....but it's only 110 yards shorter than the Derby?

I thought Mike Smith moved him right on time....... he just couldn't get there.

[lagavulin62]

I'd bet a lot of people would love to see that race 110 yards longer.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Hey where are all the "MTB was juiced in the Derby theorists" now? I thought his Derby win was most likely a fluke, but I thought the speculation after his Derby win was disgraceful.

[Track Collector]

I was wrong. I too thought MTB ran the race of his lifetime at CD and would not finish in the money today. Certainly a really good horse and a contender for the Belmont.

Lots of folks talk about the traffic MTB had to navigate and all the speculation about whether Mike Smith moved at the right time. No talk about how RA had to break from the the most-outside post and use more energy than normal to clear other horses and position herself for the lead. Horses on the lead also have to fight off multiple challengers who do not want you to settle in at YOUR comfortable pace. Even then she got it done and was the DESERVED winner!!

Is she superior to MTB, perhaps not, but significantly better, yes IMO.

BTW, I do not think she will run in the Belmont. :(

[The Hawk]

What do you guys think about MTB even running in the Belmont? Woolley wouldn't even commit to the Preakness immediately after winning the Derby. With no Triple Crown on the line is it a foregone conclusion this horse runs in the Belmont? Something tells me a guy like Woolley wouldn't be all all jacked up about going to New York to begin with. I would guess he'd would have to come out of the Preakness in perfect shape and be knocking down the walls in his stall for them to run him at Belmont, just my opinion.

[Saratoga_Mike]

What do you guys think about MTB even running in the Belmont? Woolley wouldn't even commit to the Preakness immediately after winning the Derby. With no Triple Crown on the line is it a foregone conclusion this horse runs in the Belmont? Something tells me a guy like Woolley wouldn't be all all jacked up about going to New York to begin with. I would guess he'd would have to come out of the Preakness in perfect shape and be knocking down the walls in his stall for them to run him at Belmont, just my opinion.

I thought Woolley was quoted as saying he was very confident in MTB's chances to win the Belmont, and somewhat less confident about the Preakness. I believe he said this a few days ago. If my memory serves and MTB comes out of the race okay, I think Mr. Woolley and his horse trailer will be on their way to Elmont, NY, soon.

[plainolebill]

Wooley said his original goal for the horse was the Belmont, if he ran well in the Derby - he'd go on.

[Imriledup]

Except for a traffic problem and a pause Mine That Bird would have won.

:bang:

[The Hawk]

Wooley said his original goal for the horse was the Belmont, if he ran well in the Derby - he'd go on.

Thanks guys, I hadn't heard that. I really hope he makes it, we could use another marquee race.

[newtothegame]

somebody correct me...if I am wrong .....but it's only 110 yards shorter than the Derby?

I thought Mike Smith moved him right on time....... he just couldn't get there.

Just my opinion...but another 110 yards and rachel is caught.....

[cmoore]

I don't agree...

In any event, MTB is a much smaller horse, and I think these two races take a much bigger toll on MTB...

Plus, the Belmont is much kinder to RA's running style compared to MTB....

If they both meet in the Belmont, MTB has no chance against RA, unless she completely hates the surface.

No Chance..Cmon Pace..You know there is no such thing as no chance..Mine That Bird probably ran a 52 second half in the Derby and he went by the field like they were standing still..In the Preakness he ran maybe a 49 second half (I'm guessing now) and reeled them all in but Rachel..Even if he runs a 53+ half in the Belmont..He will likely have a smaller field to run around and will love the added distance..

[Greyfox]

:bang:

None so blind as he who will not see.;)

[mostpost]

Unlike "OFF TOPIC" I agree 100% with Just Ralph and Pace Advantage. (When did you guys get so smart ;) ) Rachel Alexandra ran a huge race in the Preakness. First of all she led all the way and was pressured all the way. Her 6 furlong time of 1:11.01 was faster than all other six furlongs time for the day, save two grade three sprints. And she was not cruising on an open lead. Also, as Calvin Borel stated she did not like the track.

This is not to say that Mine That Bird doesn't deserve a large amount of respect. Someone upthread said, rather dismissively, that MTB probably ran the last half of the Derby in 52 seconds. Probably not. his time was 47.57. That is racehorse time.

[WinterTriangle]

(I'm guessing now)

Here's the chart:
http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/PIM051609USA12.pdf

[badcompany]

Very impressed with MTB. I thought the reason he blew by everyone so easily in the Derby was because he was running on the driest part of the track. Even if that was the case, the Preakness showed he's the real deal.MTB was my bad throw out. Friesen Fire was my good one. What was excuse this race?

[toussaud]

being slow

[cmoore]

Unlike "OFF TOPIC" I agree 100% with Just Ralph and Pace Advantage. (When did you guys get so smart ;) ) Rachel Alexandra ran a huge race in the Preakness. First of all she led all the way and was pressured all the way. Her 6 furlong time of 1:11.01 was faster than all other six furlongs time for the day, save two grade three sprints. And she was not cruising on an open lead. Also, as Calvin Borel stated she did not like the track.

This is not to say that Mine That Bird doesn't deserve a large amount of respect. Someone upthread said, rather dismissively, that MTB probably ran the last half of the Derby in 52 seconds. Probably not. his time was 47.57. That is racehorse time.

I was talking about the first 4 furlong time..

[cmoore]

Here's the chart:
http://equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/PIM051609USA12.pdf

It looks like Mine That Bird ran about a :49.5 four furlongs. It seems to me it doesnt' matter the pace..He will be sitting last no matter what and will make that one big run..I hope Rachel is the only early speed in the Belmont and she slows it way down..:50 half...1:13.4 six furlongs..Then we'll see if Mine That Bird can go by..Cuz I think the 1 1/2 distance favors Mine That Bird..He can run all day long imo..Hell if the Derby was a another 16th of a mile..He would of won by 10+ lengths..

[WinterTriangle]

being slow

:lol:

Yeah, really expected more from FF. Kinda was hoping for something good for Jones, too.

My horsewoman friend called me this morning and said: "when I looked at him head on, he looks like he is standing a little wide in front." She said that meant that he might be sore?

[812crew]

I'm not gonna try and analyze what may have happened. I just wanted to say that I love MTB. I thought he proved a lot today and it was a pleasure watching him rocket through the field once again. Who would have thought two weeks ago that this little guy would put in two great TC races? I'll be rooting for him in the next one. And wherever he goes from there. His owner may be an idiot, but the horse is a worthy Derby champ!

[wildcats]

cmoore

i agree with you. no way was mtb flattenning out. if they were
running the derby distance mtb would have passed her.
she better not run in belmont or she will lose.

wildcats

[tucker6]

cmoore

i agree with you. no way was mtb flattenning out. if they were
running the derby distance mtb would have passed her.
she better not run in belmont or she will lose.

wildcats
You cannot extrapolate a Belmont finish based upon a snapshot of the end of the Preakness. The way the Preakness had to be run by RA helped MTB immensely. In the Belmont, I would expect a different pace to be set, and with fewer horses as mentioned above, late, late closers are rare. Please give RA credit for setting the tempo from a bad post, fighting off the boys all the way around, and getting the job done. That ain't easy to do, and you're much too dismissive of her performance.

As for the end of the race, don't you think if they were going 10F that RA and Borel would have planned to run a 10F race? But, no, they were running a 9.5F race. MTB was charging, but RA didn't need to step it up because the wire was near. I will say that this race took a lot of effort from both horses. If they both race Belmont, I would expect at least one of them to regress. I suspect that is MTB, as he will have to work differently to get the W at Belmont.

[jognlope]

MTB had to break his momentum and have his head cocked a little in traffic, with Mike finding a hole for him. so did very well considering.

[Donnie]

tucker-
it sounds as if they were training for the Belmont rather the Preakness. With the 2 mi morning works they were putting in him, sounds like they wanted a good strong distance foundation. Anybody notice if MTB was blowing when he returned from this one? 'Cause in the Derby, he barely took a deep breath after it was over. Just wondering the immediate effects on him here.

[Vinnie]

MTB clearly showed that the Derby wasn't at all a fluke. WOW!! :) What a late explosion he possesses. If it weren't for the presence of RA we would be now looking at the very strong possibility of having our next TC Winner. With the way that he runs (his style of being so late) it is amazing how the change of tactics to those that best suit him has rocketed him to where he is now. If he runs in the Belmont, due to the fact that he can run forever and he is so very fast late, I believe that he will be very difficult to bet against. That horse that nearly no one had ever heard of has an excellent chance at winning two of the three legs of the Triple Crown. Also, how about RA winning nearly wire to wire from the #13 hole. No one in history had ever won from that post and beating the boys to boot.. Incredible stuff!!

He is the Real Deal and so is RA. What an awesome race to watch.

[razzle]

If Mine That Bird is great, what does that make Rachel Alexandra?

Freakin' amazing?

Pace, or others,
Lurking here after the Derby, I read a number of explanations for Mine That Bird's extraordinary reversal of form and amazing jump-up, most of which attributed it to taking to the mud like a fish to water(light weight, small feet, large feet, blah, blah, blah). The other most common explanation was Borel's great ride on the best part of the track. Next was the argument about other horses not liking the track or just not running that day.
Well, now that we have had a second huge performance done on a fast track,new rider, against fresh horses, it seems none of that could have applied to the Derby performance.
I take nothing away from Rachel. She is amazing, but her "amazing-ness" is evident throughout her racing life--no mystery, if you will. MTB's closing finish to be 2nd yesterday adds enigma upon imponderable. Any thoughts here today?

[eastie]

I wish I could find a replay for that race. it looked to me it was all on smith. started off too slow, waited too late, and I need to see it again to know for sure but looked like he was running outside when making his move but then turned inside? someone please verify what happened. whatever I still think it was all on the jockey and he should have won.



i hope this isn't a real shocker to you, Smith rides like a stooge, and has for quite some time.

[jognlope]

MTB's earnings now: $2,111,581.

[W2G]

I read a number of explanations for Mine That Bird's extraordinary reversal of form and amazing jump-up, most of which attributed it to taking to the mud like a fish to water(light weight, small feet, large feet, blah, blah, blah). The other most common explanation was Borel's great ride on the best part of the track. Next was the argument about other horses not liking the track or just not running that day.
Well, now that we have had a second huge performance done on a fast track,new rider, against fresh horses, it seems none of that could have applied to the Derby performance.
I take nothing away from Rachel. She is amazing, but her "amazing-ness" is evident throughout her racing life--no mystery, if you will. MTB's closing finish to be 2nd yesterday adds enigma upon imponderable. Any thoughts here today?

It's an incredible thing isn't it? I'm hoping that MTB's Derby run will now be recognized as the fantastic athletic performance that it was, although forever marred by Durkin's call.

You're right of course, very few observers took MTB's Derby at face value. Every reason under the sun was offered in explanation, usually in the context of a "perfect storm" of conditions that merged to produce the unlikely result that could never be duplicated. All those comments look pretty silly now. The horse is a flat-out runner. Sometimes you just have to believe your eyes instead of speed figures.

His PPs will always be a curiosity though. Off a dismal BC Juvy effort, mediocre form in an obscure racing venue leading up to explosive turn-of-foot Triple Crown performances. But it's not an impossible tale to weave together. MTB showed fine 2YO form in Canada and there are reasons to toss his BC race. At Sunland the surface is speed-favoring and he was ridden all wrong. I think it's really a matter of the connections figuring out how to tap the latent, distance-loving talent MTB possessed all along, primarily by having the rider taking back and launching a well-timed run.

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

I think MTB is still benefitting from a winter of living/training at a high elevation level.

[Greyfox]

I think MTB is still benefitting from a winter of living/training at a high elevation level.


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Great point.
Geez, I never thought about that, but you could be right.
3730 feet is the elevation of "Sunland Park" New Mexico.
High altitude training is a must for various Olympians.
Also, two other runners who came out of the Sunland Derby
have improved their Beyers significantly.

[mostpost]

I was talking about the first 4 furlong time..

OK rereading it I see that what I interpreted as a 52(time)second (coming at the end of the race) half was meant as a 52 second meassurement of time) half (at the beginning of the race (my bad)

[Tom]

i hope this isn't a real shocker to you, Smith rides like a stooge, and has for quite some time.

That's why he never gets good mounts.

[classhandicapper]

That's why he never gets good mounts.

You crack me up. :lol:

[bishlap]

mine that bird will go off at 3/5 in the belmont and beat the lioving crap out of that field. rachael won't run
BINGO :ThmbUp:

[WinterTriangle]

I saw a typical race with a big closer who almost gets there.............happens all the time............... it all depends on pace

And distance.

Preak doesnt favor closers, this we know. Rachel was horse for the course, and proved it yesterday.

Belmont---1 1/2 miles--- stalking style favored, front-running style would be an absolute negative. A few say closers, but not what I've seen? Big Sandy surface challenge, two turns, longer than most horses will ever run, good blend of speed and stamina, the stalker/closers would need a good pace to run at?

[classhandicapper]

I thought they both ran terrific races, but I have to tell you I think this is a really special filly.

She broke from post 13, was used a bit to get position, was carried out a bit by Big Drama to lose more ground, dueled him off for 6F (and keep in mind he's a decent quality horse with sprint speed), opened up and held a what we now all know for sure was a very good Kentucky Derby winner. I haven't seen anything other than the Moss Pace figures so far (they were about average) and the Beyer figure (108) but virtually all the horses that were near the pace tired badly except her. So IMO, that was not an easy pace.

IMO she ran great!

Personally, if I owned her I would skip the Belmont. I'm not really sure she wants 12F. But even if she does, she's had a long campaign and this had to be a tough race on her. I would freshen her up and then look to the next challenge......and her name is Zenyatta!

[delayjf]

the ride was lost letting him sit back so long in such a short race
While it certainly intuitive to assume that had he been closer to the early pace you also have to consider the effect of running a faster early pace would have on his late run.

While the Belmont might historically favor RA running style, the good news for MTB is that the field probably will probably be smaller mitigating the traffic problems.

[tucker6]

While it certainly intuitive to assume that had he been closer to the early pace you also have to consider the effect of running a faster early pace would have on his late run.

While the Belmont might historically favor RA running style, the good news for MTB is that the field probably will probably be smaller mitigating the traffic problems.
True. However, a smaller field can have a different pace than a race with a larger field. I believe a smaller field hurts MTB in that regard.

[razzle]

It's an incredible thing isn't it? I'm hoping that MTB's Derby run will now be recognized as the fantastic athletic performance that it was, although forever marred by Durkin's call.

You're right of course, very few observers took MTB's Derby at face value. Every reason under the sun was offered in explanation, usually in the context of a "perfect storm" of conditions that merged to produce the unlikely result that could never be duplicated. All those comments look pretty silly now. The horse is a flat-out runner. Sometimes you just have to believe your eyes instead of speed figures.

His PPs will always be a curiosity though. Off a dismal BC Juvy effort, mediocre form in an obscure racing venue leading up to explosive turn-of-foot Triple Crown performances. But it's not an impossible tale to weave together. MTB showed fine 2YO form in Canada and there are reasons to toss his BC race. At Sunland the surface is speed-favoring and he was ridden all wrong. I think it's really a matter of the connections figuring out how to tap the latent, distance-loving talent MTB possessed all along, primarily by having the rider taking back and launching a well-timed run.
W2G,
Thank you for a thoughtful and kind reply. His connections are either the best "talent-tappers" ever, or the tapping they did was more, shall I say, invasive. As you say, it may not be an "impossible tale to weave", yet there are too many things in the first two legs this year that defy explanation by reference to anything that has gone on before. You could be right, of course, I may just lack some "weaving" skills. I like your take on it as well as any I've heard, mostly, I think, because you are not really attempting to explain it, rather you are deferring to the skill of the handlers.

[razzle]

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Great point.
Geez, I never thought about that, but you could be right.
3730 feet is the elevation of "Sunland Park" New Mexico.
High altitude training is a must for various Olympians.
Also, two other runners who came out of the Sunland Derby
have improved their Beyers significantly.
Have runners from Sunland historically done exceptionally well at sea level tracks in Califorina and elsewhere?
I don't remember any major upsets at sea level from those that run at 5,280 ft at Arapahoe Park in Colorado.

[Cat Thief]

Neither the tri or exactor paid a great deal. Very small exactor but still the idea is to pick them right. I too screwed up. I mixed them up and I had Musket Man in the wrong tri, ouch

[Pace Cap'n]

Have runners from Sunland historically done exceptionally well at sea level tracks in Califorina and elsewhere?
I don't remember any major upsets at sea level from those that run at 5,280 ft at Arapahoe Park in Colorado.

At my (now closed) home track, The Woodlands, even the greyhound bettors knew to be wary of the horses shipping in from Arapahoe.

[razzle]

At my (now closed) home track, The Woodlands, even the greyhound bettors knew to be wary of the horses shipping in from Arapahoe.
Pace Cap'n,
We'd better tell those boys at Arapahoe to get ready to expand their backside... :eek:

[Cat Thief]

I am thinking he was just maturing and learning the game. 3 year olds can get real good real fast

[PaceAdvantage]

Who would have thought two weeks ago that this little guy would put in two great TC races?You're right of course, very few observers took MTB's Derby at face value.The poll speaks for itself:

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=57407

[Greyfox]

Have runners from Sunland historically done exceptionally well at sea level tracks in Califorina and elsewhere?
I don't remember any major upsets at sea level from those that run at 5,280 ft at Arapahoe Park in Colorado.



Thank you for asking that question.
I don't get enough to answer it.
Sunland for the most part is certainly not in the league of the So Cal tracks.
What better place to fly under the radar.
The Sunland Derby though was a 900 K Race that
Mine That Bird ran forwardly in.

A 900 K race at Sunland. To be honest, I didn't watch it. I didn't know about it. But "The Bird" finished fourth.


I really don't play runners coming from second class tracks like Sunland when they ship to Southern California.
The events of the last two weeks will change my handicapping.

But Mine That Bird was just not any runner, as it turned out.
He had won against top runners in Canada.
Someone had a theory and an idea and bought him.
Personally I would never recommend someone throwing $ 400,000 for a gelding that had shown promise in top Woodbine races. Obviously someone smarter than me in this department did. Not only that, they capitalized on their gutsy call. Brilliant.


But having said that, if I had a horse that was a potential contender in one of the three Triple Crown level races, I would seriously consider "altitude training."

To be honest, I did not know that Arapahoe Park was in Colorado. Thank you for that information and pardon my ignorance.
But that is exactly where I might prepare it if I wanted altitude training.

The Question is:
Why wouldn't trainers of contenders consider altitude training?