Preakness.How Will The Race Be Run??

[CincyHorseplayer]

For all the numerous and conflicting topics about this race and the haste to make selections,there has been nothing much said about how this race will actually be run and where it will leave the contenders.

How do you think this race will unfold??

I know I'm preaching to the choir if I mention the bigtime potential reality of a hot pace between Big Drama and Rachel A.But it might be more of the
strand the closer variety vs the destruction of all pacesetters variety.Everybody has seen it.You anticipate a hot pace that exhausts all the frontrunners,yet you get a strung out field that yields the best advantage to those who are at least able to keep close and the closer who you think will be licking his chops is hopelessly behind.

That's how I see this race.Especially with the pronounced and newfound tactics of the Derby winner and the presence of Big Drama.With that horse's frontrunning style and the prevalence of layoff horses to be headstrong anyway,I see him gunning to the lead with Rachel A as much as 3-4 lengths behind.There is no evidence she is an uncontrollable frontrunner that will hook up with BD,she has just faced inferior competition.She will have the first run at the lead.And the Derby winner could be hopelessly behind.Neither having a great advantage,either tactically if the pace is too hot,or to cold.

Which sets up the middling horses.They all have their accomplishments to cite and their defects of form IMO.I think Freisan Fire restores his reputation here,but it might not be enough to win the race.All the "Contenders" with the "Garden trip" are all too slow,but there are cases to be made with them all.

How do you think this race will be run???

[andymays]

Big Drama clears the field with Take the Points (blinks on),Rachel, and maybe Tone It Down chasing early!

With a clean break Rachel has 2 or 3 horses inside her that she will sit off of. If she breaks a half step slow (not unheard of from the outside), that number could go to 5. Kent Desormeaux on Tone it Down could do the most damage if he wants to. After watching him ride for years I know he will usually make some type of impact in a big race even if he's not on a contender. The only impact he can make in this race is to send and bother Rachel. At the start my eyes will be on the 12 and 13 post positions even though I will throw both out of all my wagers! I am not convinced Rachel can sit 3rd or 4th early against these and finish in the money!

Until she can rate and win against good competition you don't know! If she does it and wins I will still be happy for her although I will have a little less money in my pocket!

[W2G]

Big Drama clears the field with Take the Points (blinks on),Rachel, and maybe Tone It Down chasing early!

Looks about right. FF could be up there too adding a bit more fuel to the fire. Rachel's steady diet of :47s will come to an end and how she reacts to a bunch of boys going quicker early is the big question.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Whatever the pace I see Borel having RA making a run from the half mile pole.

This isn't a synthetic race or a European turf race.No sturm and drang.Win by not hurting yourself.Tactical.Philosophical.And the guy they're calling "Hillbilly boy" in USA today can get it done.

If not I'm looking forward to the 3 weeks of posts by the "Twilight Zoners" who picked the middling winner.

And excuse my tone.I just see this race as a matter of few.I think despite Mine That Bird's credentials a priori Derby notwithstanding he is a contender and Rachel Alexandra,there isn't much to contend.

Should the dream trip unfold for another horse I just don't want to hear another Draynay next spring!!!

[Boris]

I am planning for a very hot pace. I'm guessing there are jocks with orders to get in front of RA. Combine that with the ones who run up there any way, and that yields a hot pace if RA is forwardly placed as I expect. Sub 45 & 1:10 unless Borel can throttle her back. I'm guessing six horses will be trying to be in front of her at 6F.

[cmoore]

Big Drama faced tougher competition in that graded 2 race then what was in the Derby..Now it was a 7 furlong race and a field of only 6 runners..But according to the race ratings. It was a 119.1 race rating..The Derby was a 118.4...Rachel faced a 117.8..Big drama also broke the track record running a 1:20.4 for 7 furlongs..If the blinkers off can get him to settle down early..He's got the best shot of stealing this race..Let's look at his days off between races starting on Oct. 18th....42 days....48 days....113 days...and 49 days off up to the Preakness..It looks like they've been aiming for this one.

Either Big Drama steals the race and wires the field..Or he backs up completely and finishes out of the trifecta...

[Robert Fischer]

Luv Gov out the gate pace middle of the track

Big Drama moves up the rail before the first turn

Rachel back 2 lengths on the outside

Rachel makes a move approaching the far turn

Big Drama Quits

Friesan Fire runs down rachel

Pioneerof the Nile fights for 2nd

[Robert Fischer]

Big Drama faced tougher competition in that graded 2 race then what was in the Derby..Now it was a 7 furlong race and a field of only 6 runners..But according to the race ratings. It was a 119.1 race rating..The Derby was a 118.4...Rachel faced a 117.8..

that will work a lot better for the bris videogame than the real preakness

[cmoore]

that will work a lot better for the bris videogame than the real preakness

Friesan Fire is going to run down Rachel you say.:faint: If it's sloppy you might have a prayer..His best race was on the slop. He beat Terrain who ran 3rd..Terrain hasn't won since August of last year and is 30-1 today..

[toussaud]

big drama probably won't win, but I doubt he's quitting anything. has too much clas

[Robert Fischer]

Friesan Fire is going to run down Rachel you say.:faint: If it's sloppy you might have a prayer..His best race was on the slop. He beat Terrain who ran 3rd..Terrain hasn't won since August of last year and is 30-1 today..

yea:faint: and Papa Clem was 2nd in that race and also missed 2nd in the derby by 1/4 lengths...
terrain was 3rd in that race i guess it sucked... he was also 4th in the breederscupJUV(ahead of pioneer) he runs 3rd or 4th pretty much every race

the race you downplay GOT A 119 BRIS RACE RATING :D I guess it was just as good as the Kentucky Derby with it's 119 (but not to be confused as good as the swale...) If the Bris Race Rating is accurate enough to use above your own handicapping on a race like the Preakness why is the Derby rated the same as that crappy race Terrain ran 3rd in? Your telling me that Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy and Musket Man didn't improve that Race Rating 1 single point?? Now you want to judge a stretchout attempt by the race rating he got from Bris?

Its good fun and useful for claiming races you haven't watched film on, but thats mostly it...

Big Drama can go wire to wire and win the Preakness. Has nothing to do with the Swale some how being comparitive to the Derby. Has nothing to do with Terrain.

The horse has dominated cheaper company at lesser distance. The Florida Juvenile circuit does not a champion make. The 1st real stakes race he ran was the Swale stakes - put a line through the rest of his races other than to know he fired every time. The question is if he can go 1 3/16ths against good horses.

[CincyHorseplayer]

big drama probably won't win, but I doubt he's quitting anything. has too much clas

How do you see that playing on the field though???If you can't envision a race you can't win it.

How a race unfolds decides it's fate.And on a board of experts there is rare insight.Speak up.I won't bet the underlay either but I have my opinions on how the race will run.I just want to hear from similiar minded players.Not the need-to-bets!!

[toussaud]

How do you see that playing on the field though???If you can't envision a race you can't win it.

How a race unfolds decides it's fate.And on a board of experts there is rare insight.Speak up.I won't bet the underlay either but I have my opinions on how the race will run.I just want to hear from similiar minded players.Not the need-to-bets!!
i would be very very shocked if he doesn't hold on for 3rd.

[CincyHorseplayer]

i would be very very shocked if he doesn't hold on for 3rd.

If who doesnt hold for 3rd???Mine That Bird??A boy horse??You weren't very clear??

[CincyHorseplayer]

I'm not trying to be "Uber-selective" here but I am trying to get an idea of how "You" think this race will be run and it's degenerating into selection making.

I guess that's why there are a million threads about this.I'm pretentious for thinking otherwise:D

[toussaud]

If who doesnt hold for 3rd???Mine That Bird??A boy horse??You weren't very clear??

the poster asked me about big drama, that's who I am referring to.

I dont't hink he will fold like a cheap lawn chair. I think he will battle and hold on for at least 3rd.

I am thinking it will be Rachael, Mine that bird, big drama and papa clem

[depalma113]

Rachel Alexandra breaks from the outside. She's much faster than anything inside of her and easily clears. She moves over and is either on the lead or sitting just off of Big Drama. By that point the race is over. She puts them away whenever Borel asks.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Rachel Alexandra breaks from the outside. She's much faster than anything inside of her and easily clears. She moves over and is either on the lead or sitting just off of Big Drama. By that point the race is over. She puts them away whenever Borel asks.

I pretty much see it as that also unless RA all of the sudden loses stretch punch because she sees testicles a swinging.Nobody else envisions the race though.It's just a cog in the storm of another bet.

Me and you.We'll just watch it and enjoy!!:)

[cmoore]

All I'm saying is if they let Big Drama go to the lead all because they think Rachel is going to fire for the lead and she doesn't..He could get some easier fractions then most think..He's the only one that has a chance to steal it..

By the way..I use tsn and not bris..

yea:faint: and Papa Clem was 2nd in that race and also missed 2nd in the derby by 1/4 lengths...
terrain was 3rd in that race i guess it sucked... he was also 4th in the breederscupJUV(ahead of pioneer) he runs 3rd or 4th pretty much every race

the race you downplay GOT A 119 BRIS RACE RATING :D I guess it was just as good as the Kentucky Derby with it's 119 (but not to be confused as good as the swale...) If the Bris Race Rating is accurate enough to use above your own handicapping on a race like the Preakness why is the Derby rated the same as that crappy race Terrain ran 3rd in? Your telling me that Pioneerof the Nile, Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy and Musket Man didn't improve that Race Rating 1 single point?? Now you want to judge a stretchout attempt by the race rating he got from Bris?

Its good fun and useful for claiming races you haven't watched film on, but thats mostly it...

Big Drama can go wire to wire and win the Preakness. Has nothing to do with the Swale some how being comparitive to the Derby. Has nothing to do with Terrain.

The horse has dominated cheaper company at lesser distance. The Florida Juvenile circuit does not a champion make. The 1st real stakes race he ran was the Swale stakes - put a line through the rest of his races other than to know he fired every time. The question is if he can go 1 3/16ths against good horses.

[Robert Fischer]

All I'm saying is if they let Big Drama go to the lead all because they think Rachel is going to fire for the lead and she doesn't..He could get some easier fractions then most think..He's the only one that has a chance to steal it..

By the way..I use tsn and not bris..

I think we both agree Big Drama can go all the way if he gets his trip. I came off a little more "enthusiastic" in my post than I had wished. Sincere good luck today:ThmbUp:.

[depalma113]

I pretty much see it as that also unless RA all of the sudden loses stretch punch because she sees testicles a swinging.Nobody else envisions the race though.It's just a cog in the storm of another bet.

Me and you.We'll just watch it and enjoy!!:)

This was free money. I'm still shocked she was above 3/5.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Well those contrarian smokers got lit up.Myself I had a $10 exacta on the easy combination with the heresy of $10 in backup combinations.

This was shooting fish in a barrel.You win-place bettors wouldn't know anything about making money though would you???That's why you lose.This was an obvious exacta and it paid $40.

[tucker6]

Friesan Fire is going to run down Rachel you say.:faint: If it's sloppy you might have a prayer..His best race was on the slop. He beat Terrain who ran 3rd..Terrain hasn't won since August of last year and is 30-1 today..
truer words never spoken. FF stunk the joint out AGAIN!

[tucker6]

Rachel Alexandra breaks from the outside. She's much faster than anything inside of her and easily clears. She moves over and is either on the lead or sitting just off of Big Drama. By that point the race is over. She puts them away whenever Borel asks.
We have a winner. :ThmbUp:

[CincyHorseplayer]

This was free money. I'm still shocked she was above 3/5.

No doubt man.Ch-ching!!!I thought the field was pretty isolated and that makes for an easy exacta.

I admit though I was worried as hell!!I expected RA to be off the lead but what she did,the way she won,run first,run fast,made me a believer.I might be laying it on right now while drunk but what she did I think was nothing short of outstanding.I don't get emotional over bets but I rivaled Nick Zito today!!!I thoroughly enjoyed this a$s whipping:cool: