My Preakness Analysis

[CBedo]

Finally getting around to looking at the race, and although I can barely keep my eyes open, I thought I'd post my analysis here, in multiple parts.
Part I is my first round of eliminations (for the win):

OUT ON TOP
:4: Luv Gov--would have to make big move forward after making big move forward; not likely for this maiden only winner
:6: Terrain--has already shown me that his dirt numbers aren't better than his synthetic numbers. He could move forward, but not likely enough to be a part of this
:10: Flying Private--enough said, lol
:11: Take The Points--could move forward coming off the fake stuff (has already shown a better number on dirt), but even if he makes a big move forward, the best he'll be hoping for is to pick up the pieces in the bottom of the exotics.
:12: Tone It Down--makes up for his lack of early speed with not being able to close

Only five quick tosses for me, but that's five less I have to worry about handicapping for the win. In total, I probably would give all five of these together not more than a 15% chance (first pass, +/-5%).


Tomorrow (or I should say today when I wake up), in Part II, I will try to go through some possible pace scenarios and end up with selections and fair odds lines.

Talk to you all when I wake up!

[redeye007]

what do you think of #11 take the points? that race on the dirt at GP was a nice one. didn't seem to run better on the synthetic. I'm wondering if he could possibly hit the board based on his closing ability displayed at GP on 01/31/09. he definitely offers value and will skyrocket mutuals if he gets in.

[andymays]

Finally getting around to looking at the race, and although I can barely keep my eyes open, I thought I'd post my analysis here, in multiple parts.
Part I is my first round of eliminations (for the win):

OUT ON TOP
:4: Luv Gov--would have to make big move forward after making big move forward; not likely for this maiden only winner
:6: Terrain--has already shown me that his dirt numbers aren't better than his synthetic numbers. He could move forward, but not likely enough to be a part of this
:10: Flying Private--enough said, lol
:11: Take The Points--could move forward coming off the fake stuff (has already shown a better number on dirt), but even if he makes a big move forward, the best he'll be hoping for is to pick up the pieces in the bottom of the exotics.
:12: Tone It Down--makes up for his lack of early speed with not being able to close

Only five quick tosses for me, but that's five less I have to worry about handicapping for the win. In total, I probably would give all five of these together not more than a 15% chance (first pass, +/-5%).


Tomorrow (or I should say today when I wake up), in Part II, I will try to go through some possible pace scenarios and end up with selections and fair odds lines.

Talk to you all when I wake up!



Regarding Terrain, don't you thing the only representative fast dirt number was earned as a 2yo (90 beyer Aug 2nd @ Mnr). He had one race in slop and another with blinks on where he attended a suicide pace. I think if he has anything at all it will be today!

[CBedo]

I'm finally awake (and finished my girlfriend's to do list) so will be posting some analysis soon, but first I'll try to respond to questions about Terrain and Take The Points.

My opinion of Terrain is that you have to make too many assumptions to get his speed number up to what I think would be a winning number. If you just look at his last three races (I'm using BRIS numbers here--it's all I have, so if your numbers are hugely different, you could get different interpretations), you have to assume that either a)his first dirt number was at the end of his 2 year old season and as such, he should move forward off of it and/or b) he didn't like the slop and will move forward off that and/or c) the poly numbers are too low and he should run bigger than that number shows.

Let's look at each a bit. a) It makes perfect sense that almost a half year after his dirt number at Delta that he should improve, but he'd have to move forward over 20 points from that to have a chance to win here; I dont' it's likely to move that much off his 2 year old foundation (and he was 12 behind Big Drama, so he would have had to improve even more relative to that one if you want to look at it that way). b) Some horses really do "love" or "hate" the slop, but my records show that most fall somewhere in the middle and we can't just toss out that data without better information. He was in tight in that race, so you could make the case to move him up a bit, but even if you do that, that would put his numbers much below the winning number today, so again, he would have to improve dramatically--possible, but not probable. c) For horses that have no dirt numbers to look at (and he does possibly as we have talked about), on the BRIS scale, it seems that horses move up 6-8 points when they first move to the dirt off the fake. Using the BRIS number and adjusting, his speed rating is still too low to win, and as such, he would have to make a big jump forward (after making a big jump forward). So it just seems an unlikely scenario to me that this horse can run big enough here to win. (wow I ramble alot).

Take the Points looks to me that he could get up in the exotics possibly if a few others don't fire big, but I don't think it is realistic to assume that everyone else will run poor enough and he will improve by a large enough amount to win today. He seems to want to be somwhere in contact with the leader when he runs well, and if Big Drama or Rachel run at all, Take the Points will have to run faster early than he ever has to be within striking distance. I'm not a big fan of changing equipment before a big race, and they're adding blinkers today, which kind of tells me they know he's got to have more early than he has shown before. This could compromise his late kick to get into the fray late. As far as his numbers go, if you move him up off his SA Derby (about as much as POTN did), that number would fit with improvement off his Jan GP effort--but I don't see it being big enough to win.

The two basic assumptions you have to make if you want to buy into my analysis is that 1) the BRIS numbers are OK, & 2) I have some clue about what I'm talking about..............both assumptions could be suspect! lol

[CBedo]

Part II-Pace Implications
Well, it looks like there are a number of possibilities on what could happen early. To start with, will someone (or multiple horses) try to keep Rachel from getting down to the rail? If so, then we could have a few horses up front burning each other up which if Rachel folds (some probability), then it would set it up for horses who can come from a bit back. To me, this would be good for our Derby winner, MTB, and maybe Musket Man, but in this scenario, look for something wacky to happen.

More likely to me is Big Drama goes to the lead, keeping Rachel from taking over, or Big Drama tries to slow it down a bit, in which case, we end up with a number of contenders up close. If Big Drama can leisurely lope along, there is the possibiity that he could take them coast to coast. Rachel will likely have something to say about that, but they could be battling, with Musket Man & Friesan Fire getting invested as well.

If Big Drama goes a bit faster, I think that would be better for Musket Man & MTB (I have to include him in the possible analysis, before I discount him counting on a bounce). In this scenario, Rachel and then Musket seem to be well positioned.

The conclusion for me is that although I thought I'd be coming into this liking Big Drama and hating Rachel, it's not the case. In anything but a suicidal pace, Rachel has a very good chance and deserves to be the favorite. Big Drama is the unknown in how he'd handle the frenetic close of a somewhat slow pace, but likely he gets passed.

Interestingly in my pace scenarios, I couldn't find a scenario where Papa Clem wins this race, and a small probability that POTN does as well. I expect that they will run their race (maybe bounce a bit), but someone will jump up and beat them both. General Quarters would have to have everything go perfect for him to get it done but I think has a better chance than those two (to win, not get itm). Musket Man appears to me to have the best chance to improve and will have a chance under multiple scenarios. Only slightly less probable in my analysis would be Friesan Fire. And of course, we can't forget Mine That Bird, who needs them falling apart late to have a chance here.

Enough rambling for now, the bottom line is that Rachel looks tough (but has to prove she can handle a tougher race), but 8/5 is way too low for me. Big Drama is possible, but more likely I'll be looking at Musket Man & possibly Friesan Fire for value--(and rooting for Rachel I think).

Good luck today to everyone!

[CBedo]

I'm still tweaking it, but my line looks something like this:

Rachel 3/1
Musket 5/1
Big D 6/1
Friesan 7/1

Good luck!

[CBedo]

Looks like I'll bet making win bets on Musket Man & Big Drama (2/3 MM, 1/3 BD) & keying Musket Man in the exacta.

[CBedo]

Got split out of the exacta, but I thought the race was very formful. Rachel showed she was best today, and MTB showed he was no fluke. He needs some racing luck to win, but showed he could roll. Musket Man ran his race and finished where he did in Derby, behind MTB.

As far as results, I cancelled my win on BD when he was thrashing in the gate. I lost my small win bet on Musket Man.
My biggest bets were using Musket Man in exacta so that went down in flames.
I did hit a small tri that I had used Rachel & Musket in 1 & 3 hole (exacta hedge--tired of getting split!) so that paid for my other bets at least.