Worried about Rachel?

[CBedo]

Anyone worried or downgrading her with the move to the new barn and the fact that her original plan was not pointed at this race?

(although she looked simply stunning schooling yesterday)

[andymays]

Betting against a favorite that you think is vulnerable is the key to making money.

Granted you will lose more often than you win but the overlayed payoffs for the times you beat the underlayed favorite more than make up the difference.

I am going against Rachel because of the "no value" thing and all the handicapping factors.

With a clean break Rachel has 2 or 3 horses inside her that she will sit off of. If she breaks a half step slow (not unheard of from the outside), that number could go to 5. Kent Desormeaux on Tone it Down could do the most damage if he wants to. After watching him ride for years I know he will usually make some type of impact in a big race even if he's not on a contender. The only impact he can make in this race is to send and bother Rachel. At the start my eyes will be on the 12 and 13 post positions even though I will throw both out of all my wagers! I am not convinced Rachel can sit 3rd or 4th early against these and finish in the money!

[toussaud]

value is reliaitve. rachael at 3/5 in the oaks was a hell of alot of value to me.

sometimes 9/5 is value. sometimes 5/1 is not value.

[sandpit]

This is nitpicky, I know, but the only thing wrong with the barn switch is their propensity to braid the mane of every horse in the barn...there is nothing prettier than the close-up race photos of a horse's mane flowing in the breeze, but now we may never see that again on Rachel...did the same thing with Curlin most of the time.

[ezgoerbaby79]

Yes. And I hate the braided mane.

[46zilzal]

Anyone worried or downgrading her with the move to the new barn and the fact that her original plan was not pointed at this race?

(although she looked simply stunning schooling yesterday)
Not enough time to screw her up

[riskman]

I am going against Rachel because of the "no value" thing and all the handicapping factors.

What factors are negative other than the filly has not competed against the boys and post#13. Do you think she is coming back too soon(last race looked like a walkover) I am sure there are some past trends and stats that may go against her but classical factors, form, pace, trainer class, and speed appear to be positive.

Do you see a negative pace set up with Big Drama, Pioneer and Take and possibly others? Does the race shape set up for a closer or is RA going all the way. Whatever, good luck to you--have not decided yet but leaning toward Musket to win and Friesan previous recovery from his foot injury still needs needs to be viewed with some skepticism,
but I like him to hit the board.

[andymays]

What factors are negative other than the filly has not competed against the boys and post#13. Do you think she is coming back too soon(last race looked like a walkover) I am sure there are some past trends and stats that may go against her but classical factors, form, pace, trainer class, and speed appear to be positive.

Do you see a negative pace set up with Big Drama, Pioneer and Take and possibly others? Does the race shape set up for a closer or is RA going all the way. Whatever, good luck to you--have not decided yet but leaning toward Musket to win and Friesan previous recovery from his foot injury still needs needs to be viewed with some skepticism,
but I like him to hit the board.

With a clean break Rachel has 2 or 3 horses inside her that she will sit off of. If she breaks a half step slow (not unheard of from the outside), that number could go to 5. Kent Desormeaux on Tone it Down could do the most damage if he wants to. After watching him ride for years I know he will usually make some type of impact in a big race even if he's not on a contender. The only impact he can make in this race is to send and bother Rachel. At the start my eyes will be on the 12 and 13 post positions even though I will throw both out of all my wagers! I am not convinced Rachel can sit 3rd or 4th early against these and finish in the money!

Until she can rate and win against good competition you don't know! If she does it and wins I will still be happy for her although I will have a little less money in my pocket!

[Saratoga_Mike]

With a clean break Rachel has 2 or 3 horses inside her that she will sit off of. If she breaks a half step slow (not unheard of from the outside), that number could go to 5. Kent Desormeaux on Tone it Down could do the most damage if he wants to. After watching him ride for years I know he will usually make some type of impact in a big race even if he's not on a contender. The only impact he can make in this race is to send and bother Rachel. At the start my eyes will be on the 12 and 13 post positions even though I will throw both out of all my wagers! I am not convinced Rachel can sit 3rd or 4th early against these and finish in the money!

Until she can rate and win against good competition you don't know! If she does it and wins I will still be happy for her although I will have a little less money in my pocket!

That's my question: can she rate effectively? I think your analysis is laser-like.

[andymays]

That's my question: can she rate effectively? I think your analysis is laser-like.


It could be a laser up my "you know what" but my instincts tell me this is the right situation to take a shot against an overbet favorite.

[Saratoga_Mike]

It could be a laser up my "you know what" but my instincts tell me this is the right situation to take a shot against an overbet favorite.

What do you think they send her off at anyway?

[andymays]

What do you think they send her off at anyway?


7-5 or 9-5 maybe. I really don't know but I'm dead set in going against her!