bad bet

[Robert Goren]

What do you believe to be a bad bet? For me it is a short priced favorite in a large field.

[Tom]

Any bet where you do not know your advantage in making it.

[Light]

TVG's picks.

[Overlay]

Regardless of field size, any horse or combination where the odds or payoff won't adequately compensate you for the risk of betting on it (i.e. underlays).

[DeanT]

RA at 7-5?

[andymays]

All things considered, Rachel is a bet against for sure.

Given all the factors that go into handicapping this particular race, betting against Rachel (or any other Horse) in this situation is a no brainer for me.

On top of everything else there is NO VALUE in backing her!

[Relwob Owner]

All things considered, Rachel is a bet against for sure.

Given all the factors that go into handicapping this particular race, betting against Rachel (or any other Horse) in this situation is a no brainer for me.

On top of everything else there is NO VALUE in backing her!



First time I had read "no brainer" about her and agreed with it......up til now, it has been used to described betting on her.....people are really getting carried away IMHO

[michiken]

Anything that Tom Bets :lol: (just kidding)

[Tom]

Some days I agree with that! :cool:

[DJofSD]

What's a bad bet? Only half kidding, any bet you don't cash.

[SMOO]

Hank Goldburg's best bet of the day.

[GaryG]

Trying to convince yourself that a horse that is clearly best won't win and then making a stab at beating him (her). This is not brain surgery, just a horse race. (With a respectful nod to The Hat).

[DJofSD]

Hank Goldburg's best bet of the day.
:lol:

[riskman]

First time I had read "no brainer" about her and agreed with it......up til now, it has been used to described betting on her.....people are really getting carried away IMHO

As a win bet do her positive factors outweigh the negative factors on the dynamics of the race in question-- and what would be fair value for this horse.

This race may difficult to play RA on the win end but other betting opportunities may exist in the pick 3 or 4 or Tri and Super.

[riskman]

What do you believe to be a bad bet? For me it is a short priced favorite in a large field.

The take out rates in horseracing are criminal to begin with but this is a pari- mutual game and I can go to bed every night knowing that I am helping solve the economic problem and my wager contributions are helping the economy via the high track take. I do fall short in that only winning wagers are taxed but I try my best to contribute to the game and the fun and excitement are worth it.

Horse race handicapping --and profiting from it-- is a worthy goal.If you don't have a target, the arrow will hit nothing. :)

[BombsAway Bob]

Singling Odds-On faves in the first or last leg of a Pick-3 or Pick-4.
Always results in seriously underlaid payouts...
if you can't get past that 4/5 single(or at least go two deep) in the first/last leg, pass the sequence.
(IMHO, Singling the odds-on fave in the middle leg(s) doesn't seem to crush payouts as badly)

[Canadian]

Trying to convince yourself that a horse that is clearly best won't win and then making a stab at beating him (her). This is not brain surgery, just a horse race. (With a respectful nod to The Hat).


That's pretty much right on the money. I spent so long trying to beat every favorite. Sometimes the best bet is to find that longshot that will sneak under the favorite and bet an exactor.

[GaryG]

When you do bet against the standout figure horse and he (she) wins you not only lose your $$ but it was your own horse that did it to you. :mad:

[HUSKER55]

A bad bet is to bet against the winner and not know why you did. BTW, just because you don't like the odds is not a valid answer. A winner is a winner and if the price is not to your liking then pass the race. Betting just because you don't like the offer does not make sense to me.

JMHO

[andymays]

Betting against a favorite that you think is vulnerable is the key to making money.

Granted you will lose more often than you win but the overlayed payoffs for the times you beat the underlayed favorite more than make up the difference.

I am going against Rachel because of the "no value" thing and all the handicapping factors.

With a clean break Rachel has 2 or 3 horses inside her that she will sit off of. If she breaks a half step slow (not unheard of from the outside), that number could go to 5. Kent Desormeaux on Tone it Down could do the most damage if he wants to. After watching him ride for years I know he will usually make some type of impact in a big race even if he's not on a contender. The only impact he can make in this race is to send and bother Rachel. At the start my eyes will be on the 12 and 13 post positions even though I will throw both out of all my wagers! I am not convinced Rachel can sit 3rd or 4th early against these and finish in the money!

[Relwob Owner]

As a win bet do her positive factors outweigh the negative factors on the dynamics of the race in question-- and what would be fair value for this horse.

This race may difficult to play RA on the win end but other betting opportunities may exist in the pick 3 or 4 or Tri and Super.

In order to bet her with so many factors against her and given the size of the field, I would need 4 to 1 or better.....I agree that maybe the multi-race wagers will be better because many of those who will be betting her to win may not be the types of bettors participating in the multi race pools.

Andymays said earlier that the key to making money is finding vulnerable favorites and this race looks perfect IMHO

[menifee]

Betting a short priced favorite to win at something it has never done before. Harvey Pack always use to say this when I was a kid watching his daily recap show and it is still true today.

Examples:

Betting a sprinter at short odds who is going two turns for the first time.
Betting a horse at short odds who is changing surfaces for the first time (even if it is not a change in surface but just a change in venue - I won't play it).
Betting a horse at short odds who is coming off a long layoff.

My other red flag is when a horse is odds on and he's running at a claiming price for less than the amount he or she was just claimed at.