Empire Maker and other question marks

[so.cal.fan]

EM........bruised foot?
Buddy Gil......bleeds thru lasix?
Kafwain....out
Atswhatimtalkinabout.......treated for skin rash, again?
this horse had lost a bit of weight at SA derby time......anyone know if he has put it back on?
And then there is the threat of rain................
:confused:

[jotb]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
EM........bruised foot?
Buddy Gil......bleeds thru lasix?
Kafwain....out
Atswhatimtalkinabout.......treated for skin rash, again?
this horse had lost a bit of weight at SA derby time......anyone know if he has put it back on?
And then there is the threat of rain................
:confused:

Hello So.cal

Could it be the misfit Derby? I wonder how the betting public feels about Empire Maker's chances now that he has substained a bruised foot. Will he be less than even money now or will the public start looking elsewhere? Will Bobby Frankel give the green light and let him run anyway? He has never won a derby before and considering he has another ace in the hole with Peace Rules, I highly doubt he will put Empire on the track if he is not 100%.

Best regards,
Joe

[Observer]

I'm wondering if more is being made out of this bruised foot than it really is. Think I heard on some TV coverage that the bruise happened in the Wood Memorial (or maybe they said after) .. so, if that's the case .. then he's been continuing about his business like it's nothing much .. and he did work sharply on Sunday.

Obviously for any race you don't want a thing wrong, especially for this race .. but maybe it really isn't a big deal. With that said .. let me add .. I never would have taken this horse at a short price .. hoof bruise or not .. but that doesn't mean I think he can not win the race. He's just a bad bet.

[so.cal.fan]

Joe and Observer:
what do you think of Peace Rules?
Is he worth a bet? At what price?

[jotb]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Joe and Observer:
what do you think of Peace Rules?
Is he worth a bet? At what price?

Hello So Cal:

I have not reached the point of making my final decision about the Derby. I know you know how I felt about Empire Maker prior to the bruised foot. With rains possbily in the making this weekend in Kentucky, I will hold back on my final decision until half the racing card is over. I would me more than willing to share my thoughts on the race come Saturday if you are interested. Please feel free to contact via e-mail.

Best regards,
Joe

[Kentucky Bred]

It is about Empire Maker. If he is for real and runs to his inflated Beyer number in the Wood, he has the rider, pedigree and talent to make a mockery of the field. I play this race just like any other race I handicap. Who is the fav and can he be beat(?) starts the process.

I'm looking for value. $20-$30 horses to win are commonplace here. Remember how long it was between favorites winning the Derby. Don't be afraid to get off a horse before post and jump on another. I don't like Ten Most Wanted at 9-2 but 8-1 and I'm interested at least. I hate Cal horses in the Derby without East Coast experience but Buddy Gil has smoked the track and has been training with Stevens up for awhile. Give me a price here and I'll forgive him coming from my home state.

Kentucky (Cal) Bred

[Observer]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Joe and Observer:
what do you think of Peace Rules?
Is he worth a bet? At what price?

Not sure what happened .. but I thought I had posted a reply to this a few hours ago .. anyway .. my thoughts on Peace Rules is based on the "other horse" theory ... which makes him attractive soley based on that. However .. despite him being the "other horse," I'd find him an interesting prospect anyway. I know even Frankel is skeptical of him getting the distance .. but at this point .. is anyone proven at 10 furlongs??

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Observer
I'm wondering if more is being made out of this bruised foot than it really is. Think I heard on some TV coverage that the bruise happened in the Wood Memorial (or maybe they said after) .. so, if that's the case .. then he's been continuing about his business like it's nothing much .. and he did work sharply on Sunday.

Obviously for any race you don't want a thing wrong, especially for this race .. but maybe it really isn't a big deal. With that said .. let me add .. I never would have taken this horse at a short price .. hoof bruise or not .. but that doesn't mean I think he can not win the race. He's just a bad bet.

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by so.cal.fan
Joe and Observer:
what do you think of Peace Rules?
Is he worth a bet? At what price?

If you believe in the dosage index and center of distribution then a D.I. of 4.5 eliminates Peace Rules.

-L.C.

[Tom]

I agree- PR is out on dossage.
Say what you will about dossage, but I figure I can bet according to dossage for the next 40-50 derby's, lose every year, and still be ahead profitwise.
Everyone disses dossage, but look at how many horses use to show up with high DI compred to nowadays. Usee to be a handfull of DI quyalifiers, now it is rare to find many over 4.0 dreaming of roses. The breeders and trainers, in spite of thier negative comments, are quietly bring in horses that are properly bred dossage-wise to run long.
If PR wins, he wins. If I get past his dossage, I still throw him out on slow final fractions and a biased win at KEE and his probable underlay odds.

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Tom@HTR
I agree- PR is out on dossage.

Everyone disses dossage, but look at how many horses use to show up with high DI compred to nowadays. Usee to be a handfull of DI quyalifiers, now it is rare to find many over 4.0 dreaming of roses.



However, you could make a case for STRIKE THE GOLD whose D.I. was around 9.00. I believe his sire was Alydar. He should have been a Chef De Race if ever there was one. That would have qualified STRIKE THE GOLD.

[Observer]

The dosage on Strike the Gold was adjusted after he won the Derby, and that brought him into the acceptable range. Yes, Peace Rules does not fit on dosage .. but, in a rambling thought, why is dosage only mentioned at Derby time?? There are other races at 1 1/4 miles, but it's never an issue, only at the Derby. Besides, he's not way over, and most importantly, he doesn't know his dosage doesn't fit. Plus, having Frankel as his trainer and Prado as his rider doesn't hurt either.

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Observer
Yes, Peace Rules does not fit on dosage .. but, in a rambling thought, why is dosage only mentioned at Derby time?? There are other races at 1 1/4 miles, but it's never an issue, only at the Derby. Besides, he's not way over, and most importantly, he doesn't know his dosage doesn't fit. Plus, having Frankel as his trainer and Prado as his rider doesn't hurt either.

=============================

The dosage index and center of distribution are important factors in the Derby & Belmont because the horses are barely 3 years old [some foals are in April-May]. These are the first two classic distance 3yo races. Several Derby favorites that did not qualify on DI and CD came on to "blow the doors off" of older horses later in the year [October-November]. Except for the Derby & Belmont our graded classic distance races are run in the fall. The Europeans scoff at DI & CD but their amimals are bred more for endurance rather than speed.

-L.C.

[Tom]

I use it on the Belmont, Travers, BC, and other classic distance races for 2-3 yos.
Yeah, STGold was a problem-there wasn't enough evidence before the derby to justify his having a lower number...theses aren't speed figs, and you can't force them based on anything other than the formula-personal observations count for squat.
I have made more money using dossage than anything else.
I also use dossage on sprint races and FTS early in their careers.