ML of winning favorites

[misscashalot]

Anyone have any figures on the % of winning favorites paying less than their ML odds

[Overlay]

I don't have a figure, but I imagine that it's very high, since I think most morning lines tend to be conservative.

[glengarry]

The interesting question would be the percentage of morning line favorites that go off higher than their morning line and still win. Has to be less 5%.

[SMOO]

The interesting question would be the percentage of morning line favorites that go off higher than their morning line and still win. Has to be less 5%.
A pretty good sign of "dead on the board".

[ryesteve]

I just looked, and they don't do that badly. 18.5% won, and the ROI is only 4-5 points lower than ml favs that go off under their ml odds.

One weird thing I noticed: if you bet those "dead favorites" at Saratoga, you'd have cleaned up... +45% ROI on 98 bets.

[fmolf]

I just looked, and they don't do that badly. 18.5% won, and the ROI is only 4-5 points lower than ml favs that go off under their ml odds.

One weird thing I noticed: if you bet those "dead favorites" at Saratoga, you'd have cleaned up... +45% ROI on 98 bets.
thats because of all the novice and weekenders money in play at saratoga

[ryesteve]

thats because of all the novice and weekenders money in play at saratogaBut you could say the same for Del Mar too... and why would novices and weekenders disproportionately bet a non-ML so heavily, that it becomes the favorite? If anything, they bet randomly. Now that I think about it, a more likely explanation would be lots of steam horses that go up in smoke. Maybe because saratoga is such an attractive place to pull off a little coup, you get a lot of people trying it who just aren't that good at it.