crc 7/23 8th race

[BIG HIT]

Hi guy I would like to know how you guys look at the winner of the race.I have a problem with horse that failed at a longer distance in the past and then goes longer.How do you fig his ability to do it.

[NoDayJob]

The 4 best early speed #4, #6, #7, #10
The 4 best speed numbers #5, #8, #10, #11

From the horses above

The 4 best ITM% from the Past Performances #7, #8, #10, #11 (These win 75% of the time in routes)
The 4 best AEPS #3, #7, #8, #10

#7, #8, #10 are your contenders

A quick look at the trainers records should clue you which 2 horses are trying

[andicap]

NDJ,
Do you take 1 paceline or look at a series of them? That's probably my biggest question to handicappers.
Myself I look at a series of them for form cycles, if a good one was aberrant, etc.

[GR1@HTR]

Attachment:

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by andicap
NDJ,
Do you take 1 paceline or look at a series of them? That's probably my biggest question to handicappers.
Myself I look at a series of them for form cycles, if a good one was aberrant, etc.



Generally a series of pace lines. -NDJ

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by GR1
Attachment:

Perhaps a legend of your rankings is in order? -NDJ

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
NDJ,
Do you take 1 paceline or look at a series of them? That's probably my biggest question to handicappers.
Myself I look at a series of them for form cycles, if a good one was aberrant, etc.



I used to swear by picking one line and going with it, but there seems to be so much variation in lines and who knows how accurate any of it is anymore, I like to look for at least a second line that verifies my main line.
Kind of like the rules for finding a fulcrum in Pizzola's book-if a horse led at the half in 45.1, I better find another race as good or better than that or else I don't use it.
If I find a horse has run 45, 45.1, 45.2, 45.1 but last time
ran a 46.3, I conside the last race abberent and go back
to the good splits, even if he was beaten to the call in 46+ by several horse in today's race. A horse that led in 46 last time and was ahead of my first horse is not a contender if that was his best ever. One this I don't pay any attention to anymore is the company line. Got burned too many times before to believe it any more.
Tom

[andicap]

Now we're getting somewhere.
I realize we have pace figures for this stuff but I like using raw numbers on fractional splits.
Tom, (or anyone else) do you adjust these "raw" numbers for track-to-track or distance change?. After all, a Calder split is far slower than a GP split for example.

[GR1@HTR]

Per NDJ request

[hurrikane]

NDJ--- AEPS?

[Tom]

Originally posted by andicap
Now we're getting somewhere.
I realize we have pace figures for this stuff but I like using raw numbers on fractional splits.
Tom, (or anyone else) do you adjust these "raw" numbers for track-to-track or distance change?. After all, a Calder split is far slower than a GP split for example.



I go both ways (with adjustments, that is ~G~)
Sometime I like to use raw, generally in the betor races.
I look at the whole PP history and make a mental note of how consistent the numbers are. Albert The Great, for example is pretty hard to beat when he runs a 46, but when he has to go 45 and change, he gets caught.
It's more of an art than a science. I use what "feels" right for each race. Can't explain it any better than that. When I use BRIS/TSN of ITS, and the pace figs are there, I use them.
Tom

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by hurrikane
NDJ--- AEPS?

AEPS - average earning per start - 8 or more starts latest year. If less than 8 - the races in the last 2 years. -NDJ

[BIG HIT]

Thanks guys for your replys one thing more for no day job. when you speak of itm%.I asume you meant life time starts.Which does work very well but if he has say 33% life time and70% for the distance would you still keep him as a contender.I think you would just want to make sure got the same page you do. thanks agian for everybody input.

[hurrikane]

NJD....thanks, that what I thought. Do you find that is becoming unreliable these days with the higher purses at the slot tracks?

[andicap]

not to mention inflated state-bred purses.

That's my problem with much of the software and other class gauges -- they don't usually allow for lousy state-breds. (though I'm sure you're different, Dave S... :)

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by hurrikane
NJD....thanks, that what I thought. Do you find that is becoming unreliable these days with the higher purses at the slot tracks?

I use purse value adjustments in addition to the AEPS. -NDJ

[NoDayJob]

Originally posted by BIG HIT
Thanks guys for your replys one thing more for no day job. when you speak of itm%.I asume you meant life time starts.Which does work very well but if he has say 33% life time and70% for the distance would you still keep him as a contender.I think you would just want to make sure got the same page you do. thanks agian for everybody input.


ITM% - last 10 past performance lines. Maiden races or only 1 lifetime win and no win in the P.P. lines include 4ths. I let the trainer determine the horse's distance capability.