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View Full Version : Friesian Fire Rebound? And now no Hull?


Oaklawn
05-11-2009, 10:05 PM
RA has to be the pick, but there is certainly some horses that didn't give their best race on Derby day that should rebound. I can't help but think FF has to show up after having trouble in the gate with her previous works before the derby and she didn't extend herself with an 18th finish.

I was also disappointed that Hull has withdrawn. Anybody know why? Afraid of RA, injury, what? I really liked Hull there.

toussaud
05-11-2009, 10:10 PM
hull's oringal game plan was the woodey stephens. I think they thought they would be lone speed and if you are lone speed in the preakness you might be able to steal it. that's not the case any longer.

Relwob Owner
05-11-2009, 10:24 PM
RA has to be the pick, but there is certainly some horses that didn't give their best race on Derby day that should rebound. I can't help but think FF has to show up after having trouble in the gate with her previous works before the derby and she didn't extend herself with an 18th finish.

I was also disappointed that Hull has withdrawn. Anybody know why? Afraid of RA, injury, what? I really liked Hull there.



Before I knew that FF would be running, I really liked Papa Clem. However, now that FF is in, I have a decision on my hands.....I watched the Derby and FF just had nothing go his way from the get go and add the cut to it and I think you have a throw out.....will probably be able to sit just off and make a big move and may be 5 to 1 or better...

I am definitely betting against RA and can't quite remember a more overhyped horse for the circumstances since Dunkirk earlier this year....yes, she is a terrific filly but she is doing so many things for the first time, I will let her beat me.

Dahoss9698
05-11-2009, 10:38 PM
hull's oringal game plan was the woodey stephens. I think they thought they would be lone speed and if you are lone speed in the preakness you might be able to steal it. that's not the case any longer.

You think they thought they were lone speed with Big Drama in the lineup? It feels more like the addition of Rachel Alexandra makes this a much tougher spot than it was when they decided they were going to take a shot.

Watcher
05-11-2009, 10:43 PM
“I don't like the way the pace scenario shapes up,” said Barry Irwin, who owns the son of Holy Bull with Heiligbrodt Racing Stable and Gary Barber. “I cannot see us getting the right kind of trip. I see there being too much pressure on him going two turns for the first time. I like this horse; he is training really well and I don't want to screw him up.”

toussaud
05-11-2009, 10:45 PM
You think they thought they were lone speed with Big Drama in the lineup? It feels more like the addition of Rachel Alexandra makes this a much tougher spot than it was when they decided they were going to take a shot.
see below you.

yea.. considering that's what they said. I do.


of course it's a tough spot. it's the freaking preakness.

fmolf
05-11-2009, 10:54 PM
You think they thought they were lone speed with Big Drama in the lineup? It feels more like the addition of Rachel Alexandra makes this a much tougher spot than it was when they decided they were going to take a shot.
i look for papa clem to run a big race ...ra to bounce along with potn & mtb...
west side bernie might improve as might general quarters...discounting the chances of all the horses that did not run in the derby

Watcher
05-11-2009, 10:56 PM
I haven't heard about WSB being run in the Preakness?

Dahoss9698
05-11-2009, 11:01 PM
see below you.

yea.. considering that's what they said. I do.


of course it's a tough spot. it's the freaking preakness.

I missed the part where they said they thought they were lone speed. Here's what we know, when they decided they were going, an impossible horse had just won the Derby and the Preakness looked up for grabs. It seemed like a good spot to take the shot, and if it didn't work out, they could always shorten him back up and point to the Kings Bishop, which was their original goal.

In a span of a week Rachel is now going as well as Friesan Fire. It was no secret Big Drama was going. Hull was never going to be lone speed with Big Drama going. So now you have Rachel, a 20 length winner of the Oaks and a horse many thought could have won the Derby if entered, and the actual Derby favorite in Friesan Fire going. In my opinion that is what is keeping them out.

Dahoss9698
05-11-2009, 11:03 PM
i look for papa clem to run a big race ...ra to bounce along with potn & mtb...
west side bernie might improve as might general quarters...discounting the chances of all the horses that did not run in the derby

I don't buy into the bounce theory per se, but if you think Rachel, POTN and MTB are going to bounce, why won't Papa Clem?

Watcher
05-11-2009, 11:14 PM
When was the last time PotN bounced? He's been almost the epitome of consistent.

Dahoss9698
05-11-2009, 11:17 PM
I haven't heard about WSB being run in the Preakness?

He isn't.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/50655/godolphin-buys-west-side-bernie

“The horse is in our barn at Belmont and he will get a break,” Crisford said. “We’ll give him a couple of races in the fall and then bring him to Dubai. We bought him to race in our Carnival races. We feel he will fit in to the program and we’re sure he’ll well. After the races in Dubai he will return to the United States to race.”

toussaud
05-11-2009, 11:40 PM
I missed the part where they said they thought they were lone speed. Here's what we know, when they decided they were going, an impossible horse had just won the Derby and the Preakness looked up for grabs. It seemed like a good spot to take the shot, and if it didn't work out, they could always shorten him back up and point to the Kings Bishop, which was their original goal.

In a span of a week Rachel is now going as well as Friesan Fire. It was no secret Big Drama was going. Hull was never going to be lone speed with Big Drama going. So now you have Rachel, a 20 length winner of the Oaks and a horse many thought could have won the Derby if entered, and the actual Derby favorite in Friesan Fire going. In my opinion that is what is keeping them out.


hull's oringal game plan was the woodey stephens. I think they thought they would be lone speed and if you are lone speed in the preakness you might be able to steal it. that's not the case any longer.

better?

Dahoss9698
05-11-2009, 11:48 PM
Not really. Rachel's presence doesn't change that Hull was going to have company on the front end. But, it does mean that a horse that other owners were trying to keep out is now in. We are arguing semantics, but do you deny Big Drama was going to be arguing the pace with Hull early?

toussaud
05-11-2009, 11:53 PM
that's not the point. you tried to say I didn't say it when I clearly did.


coming out the trail the plain was the woody stephens as per romans. then when everything went down it seems like they said we will give the preakness a shot.

but with big drama and Rachael and take the points in the race, he is not going to get the pace senerio that is condusive to him carriying his speed to a preakness win, thus the scratch

Dahoss9698
05-12-2009, 12:05 AM
It is the point I was trying to make. When I said they, I was referring to Hull's connections. I know what you said. Hull was never going to be alone on the lead and I disagree with you that the connections thought he was going to be. In my opinion, they aren't afraid of Rachel applying pressure to him early. They don't want to run against her at this point in time. And if the events of the last few days with Zayat and MTB's owners have shown us anything, Hull's connections aren't alone.

fmolf
05-12-2009, 01:01 AM
It is the point I was trying to make. When I said they, I was referring to Hull's connections. I know what you said. Hull was never going to be alone on the lead and I disagree with you that the connections thought he was going to be. In my opinion, they aren't afraid of Rachel applying pressure to him early. They don't want to run against her at this point in time. And if the events of the last few days with Zayat and MTB's owners have shown us anything, Hull's connections aren't alone.
she looks ready for a bounce ..she is returning very quickly off a new beyer top!

joanied
05-12-2009, 04:50 PM
I'm jumping in here because I see Freisan Fire's name in a post...hey, Relwob...yep, now that FF is in, it puts another color to the palett...and now I am at a crossroads:) too....
unlike you though, I can't toss out RA...but, and this may get me pistol whipped...I'm gonna chalk up MTB's Derby win as a, well, miracle...not gonna call it a fluke because the little gelding can run...but it was the miraculous ride Calvin gave him that put him in the winners circle...with all this crap about the Allen thing, I really don't give a crap wether or not MTB runs a good one on Saturday...
Pioneer is looking fantastic and doing fantastic...FF put in a very nice work, and since the Derby has to be a toss for him...I beleive he'll be right there.
I agree, RA is being asked an awful lot...if she is as special as most everyone, including me, thinks she is, I guess she'll take it all in stride and run her race on Saturday...

Oh, what to do:confused: :bang: :confused: ...what to do:)

Relwob Owner
05-12-2009, 05:00 PM
I don't buy into the bounce theory per se, but if you think Rachel, POTN and MTB are going to bounce, why won't Papa Clem?



Beyer wise, bouncing is off a previous best/big race and in terms of Beyers, a case can be made that Papa Clem bounced in the Derby and is primed for a big effort coming off of that.....but, if you don't buy into the bounce theory, it doesnt matter.

I think Rachel Alexandra will bounce, mainly in the sense that she will be bounced around in the first turn by jockeys who will be set on denying her the types of perfect position in the past....

Relwob Owner
05-12-2009, 05:03 PM
I'm jumping in here because I see Freisan Fire's name in a post...hey, Relwob...yep, now that FF is in, it puts another color to the palett...and now I am at a crossroads:) too....
unlike you though, I can't toss out RA...but, and this may get me pistol whipped...I'm gonna chalk up MTB's Derby win as a, well, miracle...not gonna call it a fluke because the little gelding can run...but it was the miraculous ride Calvin gave him that put him in the winners circle...with all this crap about the Allen thing, I really don't give a crap wether or not MTB runs a good one on Saturday...
Pioneer is looking fantastic and doing fantastic...FF put in a very nice work, and since the Derby has to be a toss for him...I beleive he'll be right there.
I agree, RA is being asked an awful lot...if she is as special as most everyone, including me, thinks she is, I guess she'll take it all in stride and run her race on Saturday...

Oh, what to do:confused: :bang: :confused: ...what to do:)

I was stuck between FF and POTN in the Deby and am stuck btw Papa Clem and FF here....I am leaning towards getting back on FF...


Rachel Alexandra is a wonderful horse but a definite bet against here...I think she will be two to one or lower....

The bonus for me is that if she beats me, I will be very, very happy because it will mean that I have seen history(I am going) and you cant beat that!


Good luck to you JoanieD!

DRIVEWAY
05-12-2009, 05:11 PM
I'm jumping in here because I see Freisan Fire's name in a post...hey, Relwob...yep, now that FF is in, it puts another color to the palett...and now I am at a crossroads:) too....
unlike you though, I can't toss out RA...but, and this may get me pistol whipped...I'm gonna chalk up MTB's Derby win as a, well, miracle...not gonna call it a fluke because the little gelding can run...but it was the miraculous ride Calvin gave him that put him in the winners circle...with all this crap about the Allen thing, I really don't give a crap wether or not MTB runs a good one on Saturday...
Pioneer is looking fantastic and doing fantastic...FF put in a very nice work, and since the Derby has to be a toss for him...I beleive he'll be right there.
I agree, RA is being asked an awful lot...if she is as special as most everyone, including me, thinks she is, I guess she'll take it all in stride and run her race on Saturday...

Oh, what to do:confused: :bang: :confused: ...what to do:)

RA will be 3-1 in Preakness. FF will be 10+. If you backed FF in Derby, it's hard to walk away in the Preakness. Remember what Jones said ""FF is a definite Belmont contender".
No reason to go in the Preakness. Triple crown is off the table.

If he goes, he's in it to win it. This will be an exciting race.

CincyHorseplayer
05-12-2009, 05:19 PM
she looks ready for a bounce ..she is returning very quickly off a new beyer top!

EEEHHH.Wrong!!!

Seriously.You don't bounce off hand rides where your jockey looks like a mannequin he asked her for so little.

Watcher
05-12-2009, 05:25 PM
I was stuck between FF and POTN in the Deby and am stuck btw Papa Clem and FF here....I am leaning towards getting back on FF...


Rachel Alexandra is a wonderful horse but a definite bet against here...I think she will be two to one or lower....

The bonus for me is that if she beats me, I will be very, very happy because it will mean that I have seen history(I am going) and you cant beat that!


Good luck to you JoanieD!
I'm leaning towards FF again as well.

joanied
05-12-2009, 05:27 PM
I was stuck between FF and POTN in the Deby and am stuck btw Papa Clem and FF here....I am leaning towards getting back on FF...


Rachel Alexandra is a wonderful horse but a definite bet against here...I think she will be two to one or lower....

The bonus for me is that if she beats me, I will be very, very happy because it will mean that I have seen history(I am going) and you cant beat that!


Good luck to you JoanieD!

OhWOW...you're going...outstanding:jump: and I'm jealous;) ... maybe I'll be a little less undecided after they makes the draws tomorrow...NOT:D

If Pioneer wins, we'll all be saying if not for Calvin, we'd have a triple crown on the line...if FF wins, same thing...if RA wins, we'll all be saying they shoulda run her in the Derby, IF MTB wins, we'll actually be looking at a possible Triple Crown...

in any case, Relwob...here's wishing you a fantastic day...hope you cash plenty of tickets and get to see a little history being made.

joanied
05-12-2009, 05:29 PM
RA will be 3-1 in Preakness. FF will be 10+. If you backed FF in Derby, it's hard to walk away in the Preakness. Remember what Jones said ""FF is a definite Belmont contender".
No reason to go in the Preakness. Triple crown is off the table.

If he goes, he's in it to win it. This will be an exciting race.

And, if all goes well, FF is gonna be one tough horse in the Belmont...I have no doubt, FF is going to run huge on Saturday...and Pioneer looks fantastci...he actually gained wieght since the Derby...
yep...if nothing else...it's gonna be a damned :jump: barn burner:jump:

joanied
05-12-2009, 05:31 PM
When was the last time PotN bounced? He's been almost the epitome of consistent.

:ThmbUp:

fmhealth
05-12-2009, 05:31 PM
RA has never run against males, furthermore, he's never traveled this distance. Taken along with the fact that both times she's run on 15 days rest she's run second.

At short odds I'll toss her.

joanied
05-12-2009, 05:32 PM
EEEHHH.Wrong!!!

Seriously.You don't bounce off hand rides where your jockey looks like a mannequin he asked her for so little.

I doubt she has any bounce in her...and you make a good point, Cincy:ThmbUp:

Dahoss9698
05-12-2009, 05:49 PM
Beyer wise, bouncing is off a previous best/big race and in terms of Beyers, a case can be made that Papa Clem bounced in the Derby and is primed for a big effort coming off of that.....but, if you don't buy into the bounce theory, it doesnt matter.

I think Rachel Alexandra will bounce, mainly in the sense that she will be bounced around in the first turn by jockeys who will be set on denying her the types of perfect position in the past....

I know what a bounce is. I just don't believe in it. Good horses are capable of running well time after time. They might not always replicate their previous figure, but they don't always have to, to win. I think the bounce is just another excuse we as horseplayers use. POTN has been running basically the same race Beyer wise all year. So why would he suddenly bounce on Saturday? If he doesn't win, it's because he isn't good enough. Not because he bounced. Of course MTB is going to regress. His 105 in the Derby was a fluke. He has nowhere to go but down.

If I was on the Papa Clem bandwagon, I'd be concerned with his work today.

Relwob Owner
05-12-2009, 06:00 PM
I know what a bounce is. I just don't believe in it. Good horses are capable of running well time after time. They might not always replicate their previous figure, but they don't always have to, to win. I think the bounce is just another excuse we as horseplayers use. POTN has been running basically the same race Beyer wise all year. So why would he suddenly bounce on Saturday? If he doesn't win, it's because he isn't good enough. Not because he bounced. Of course MTB is going to regress. His 105 in the Derby was a fluke. He has nowhere to go but down.

If I was on the Papa Clem bandwagon, I'd be concerned with his work today.


I am sure you do and didnt mean at all to imply you don't.... I was responding to your question about why Papa Clem wouldnt bounce in the Preakness and pointing out that the Derby wasnt a lifetime best for him and I think he may have bounced in the Derby and wont here....

I agree about POTN....he seems to be right in the mid 90's and will have to step it up and I wont use him.....he had a near perfect trip in the Derby and couldnt deliver.

As far as the concept of the bounce goes, I think it is a bit overused. However, the concept makes sense to me in that it is logical to assume any horse may regress at some point right after running a huge race.

I agree with you and the work by Papa Clem didnt knock my socks off, either....

JPinMaryland
05-12-2009, 06:05 PM
RA will be 3-1 in Preakness. FF will be 10+. If you backed FF in Derby, it's hard to walk away in the Preakness. Remember what Jones said ""FF is a definite Belmont contender".
No reason to go in the Preakness. Triple crown is off the table.

If he goes, he's in it to win it. This will be an exciting race.


They had some local guys on NPR public radio here in Washington DC and they claim that RA should go off at 7-5. Or at least one of them did.

Not saying you're right or wrong. I am kind of torn myself. I will say 2-1 but it certainly make horse racing interesting. :jump:

toussaud
05-12-2009, 06:28 PM
no way she touches anything higher than 5/2. more than likely 8 or 7/5.

3 to 1 and I will emply the savings account.

filly or not, on paper shes TONS better than this group

DRIVEWAY
05-12-2009, 07:55 PM
no way she touches anything higher than 5/2. more than likely 8 or 7/5.

3 to 1 and I will emply the savings account.

filly or not, on paper shes TONS better than this group

Run a line through the Oaks and the Derby. Now handicap this race on a fast track.

Would you make RA the favorite??

CincyHorseplayer
05-12-2009, 08:09 PM
Run a line through the Oaks and the Derby. Now handicap this race on a fast track.

Would you make RA the favorite??

Ignore reality.Then handicap the race.

Brilliant;)

DRIVEWAY
05-12-2009, 08:26 PM
Ignore reality.Then handicap the race.

Brilliant;)

The Oaks and Derby were run on off tracks. What affect these conditions had on the outcome will distort one's opinion.

By simply ignoring these two races and then establishing an odds line will only highlight this potential distortion.

if you then believe RA should be the favorite, then proceeed with confidence. if not sure, then beware.

Nothing brilliant, just common sense.

GaryG
05-12-2009, 08:34 PM
Without Quality Road this group of 3yo colts looks very ordinary and well matched. I am not going to draw a line through the Oaks line. It represents consistently dramatic improvement. The filly lays over this field and I see her at close to even money.

toussaud
05-12-2009, 08:42 PM
you could throw a line though the oaks and the derby, and Rachael is still a about 2-3 lengths better than the field, geared down.

I think people are misunderststanding, I am not saying she's a super filly though she could be. It's really a mediore group. without IWR, with dunkirk doing what he did and Quality road, this is no different than last year without big brown. very avg.

Relwob Owner
05-12-2009, 08:43 PM
The Oaks and Derby were run on off tracks. What affect these conditions had on the outcome will distort one's opinion.

By simply ignoring these two races and then establishing an odds line will only highlight this potential distortion.

if you then believe RA should be the favorite, then proceeed with confidence. if not sure, then beware.

Nothing brilliant, just common sense.


Im with you....I think she will be around 8 to 5 and cant wait to bet against her.....she is doing so many things for the first time, that I cant back her at all, especially at a low price. Plus, I find it amazing that people are talking about emptying out their accounts to bet on her and they havent even drawn the post positions yet.

Take out Fresian Fire's horrible Derby and he makes the most sense to me and I will also have Papa Clem in there. Cant wait til Saturday.

fmolf
05-13-2009, 01:43 AM
Im with you....I think she will be around 8 to 5 and cant wait to bet against her.....she is doing so many things for the first time, that I cant back her at all, especially at a low price. Plus, I find it amazing that people are talking about emptying out their accounts to bet on her and they havent even drawn the post positions yet.

Take out Fresian Fire's horrible Derby and he makes the most sense to me and I will also have Papa Clem in there. Cant wait til Saturday.
papa clem to win potn.. dunkirk and friesan fire underneath...add musket man hold me back an chocalate candy for the tri!

CincyHorseplayer
05-13-2009, 02:02 AM
The Oaks and Derby were run on off tracks. What affect these conditions had on the outcome will distort one's opinion.

By simply ignoring these two races and then establishing an odds line will only highlight this potential distortion.

if you then believe RA should be the favorite, then proceeed with confidence. if not sure, then beware.

Nothing brilliant, just common sense.

MTB coming out of nowhere to win on an easily identifiable rail bias is a lot different than a consistent filly that has been getting faster and better every start.

And where did I say anything about any particular horse???Your putting words in my mouth.

Plus common sense would dictate that with young horses you have to consider EVERY aspect of their past performances.You don't simply draw a line and ignore anything.Nothing is set in stone with 3yo horses.

fmolf
05-13-2009, 03:01 AM
i say both ra and mtb run off the board......mtb bounces an so does rachel...she is coming back to early as is mtb off his lifetime best ..

CincyHorseplayer
05-13-2009, 06:52 AM
i say both ra and mtb run off the board......mtb bounces an so does rachel...she is coming back to early as is mtb off his lifetime best ..

RA didn't even take a deep breath and was under a hand ride.The theory is being taken to the absurd here.

ghostyapper
05-13-2009, 07:12 AM
RA didn't even take a deep breath and was under a hand ride.The theory is being taken to the absurd here.

Just because she was not asked does not mean she didn't run hard. We went through this whole crap with bernadini and then when he was finally asked he ran no better than his hand rides.

tucker6
05-13-2009, 09:16 AM
I don't buy into the bounce theory per se, but if you think Rachel, POTN and MTB are going to bounce, why won't Papa Clem?
I never bought into the bounce theory either. I find it a case of people finding the bounce because they want to find the bounce. Self fulfilling prophecy kind of thing. One can pick out hundreds of examples of horses bouncing and not bouncing when they are supposed to bounce. Makes for a soft gauge if you ask me.

tucker6
05-13-2009, 09:21 AM
I was stuck between FF and POTN in the Deby and am stuck btw Papa Clem and FF here....I am leaning towards getting back on FF...


Rachel Alexandra is a wonderful horse but a definite bet against here...I think she will be two to one or lower....

The bonus for me is that if she beats me, I will be very, very happy because it will mean that I have seen history(I am going) and you cant beat that!


Good luck to you JoanieD!
I lean toward FF as well, but think General Quarter may surprise. I too would like RA to prove me wrong. I'm envious that you're going. The only time I went, I saw Risen Star in 1988. Hot as hell that day. I disagree with you that she'll go off as low as 2:1. That's a crazy odds to me, but I've been proven wrong before..

GaryG
05-13-2009, 09:35 AM
i say both ra and mtb run off the board......mtb bounces an so does rachel...she is coming back to early as is mtb off his lifetime best ..This is a developing 3yo that just won under a hand ride. Horses bounce off an over taxing effort not a win under wraps. No way will Rachel bounce. MTB? who cares.

Relwob Owner
05-13-2009, 09:37 AM
I never bought into the bounce theory either. I find it a case of people finding the bounce because they want to find the bounce. Self fulfilling prophecy kind of thing. One can pick out hundreds of examples of horses bouncing and not bouncing when they are supposed to bounce. Makes for a soft gauge if you ask me.

I am kind of in the middle....I never see it as a hard and fast thing that always occurs. However, i do think that generally, when a horse runs a huge effort, it helps to analyze whether or not that horse would still be competetive if they regressed a bit off the huge effort....

tucker6
05-13-2009, 09:44 AM
I am kind of in the middle....I never see it as a hard and fast thing that always occurs. However, i do think that generally, when a horse runs a huge effort, it helps to analyze whether or not that horse would still be competetive if they regressed a bit off the huge effort....
No doubt Relwob. That's the proper way to use "'bounce". I just see those using bounce as a primary gauge of a horse's future performance, and I do not believe it is a primary gauge.

Jinxed
05-13-2009, 10:45 AM
I don't know why they pulled Hull, but I'm disappointed. I'm now looking at FF, as I threw out the Derby completely for him. I like the longshot Luv Gov for some reason. It might be a great time for me to bet the longshots again. Of them all POTN is probably the most consistent horse. There is no point in me wasting money on RA. There is no money to be made there unless she comes in with longshots (and anything could happen).

Good luck to you all. I'm off to NYC and Atlantic City for the next week.

dartman51
05-13-2009, 10:47 AM
Of course MTB is going to regress. His 105 in the Derby was a fluke. He has nowhere to go but down.


WHY does MTB have NOWHERE to go but DOWN. This is a horse that is JUST BARELY 3yo. How do you know that his BEST days aren't ahead. He's got the breeding. UNBRIDLED, DERBY WINNER 1990. GRINDSTONE, DERBY WINNER, 1996. BIRDSTONE, BELMONT WINNER 2004, also won the TRAVERS at a mile and a quarter. He MAY NOT run a lick again, but to discount him as a FLUKE, I think, is a mistake. Now, having said that, I bet FF in the DERBY and will probably bet him again in the PREAKNESS. But I will be using MTB in all my exoctics. JMHO

Relwob Owner
05-13-2009, 10:55 AM
No doubt Relwob. That's the proper way to use "'bounce". I just see those using bounce as a primary gauge of a horse's future performance, and I do not believe it is a primary gauge.


agreed!

DRIVEWAY
05-13-2009, 12:11 PM
MTB coming out of nowhere to win on an easily identifiable rail bias is a lot different than a consistent filly that has been getting faster and better every start.

And where did I say anything about any particular horse???Your putting words in my mouth.

Plus common sense would dictate that with young horses you have to consider EVERY aspect of their past performances.You don't simply draw a line and ignore anything.Nothing is set in stone with 3yo horses.

Plus common sense would dictate that with young horses you have to consider EVERY aspect of their past performances.

Dahoss9698
05-13-2009, 12:12 PM
WHY does MTB have NOWHERE to go but DOWN. This is a horse that is JUST BARELY 3yo. How do you know that his BEST days aren't ahead. He's got the breeding. UNBRIDLED, DERBY WINNER 1990. GRINDSTONE, DERBY WINNER, 1996. BIRDSTONE, BELMONT WINNER 2004, also won the TRAVERS at a mile and a quarter. He MAY NOT run a lick again, but to discount him as a FLUKE, I think, is a mistake. Now, having said that, I bet FF in the DERBY and will probably bet him again in the PREAKNESS. But I will be using MTB in all my exoctics. JMHO

I think he has nowhere to go but down Beyer wise in the Preakness. If he improves off of his 105 I will be shocked. It's been discussed a million times on here, so I'm not going to go over it all again. But there is a reason he was 50-1 in the Derby and a horse most thought would be last. He was the most improbable of winners, maybe in Derby history.

His race in the Derby sticks out like a sore thumb. In my experience horses like that rarely if ever run that race back again. His best days could be ahead of him, but as bettors we have a decision to make. And I think we'll see the Sunland Park Mine That Bird this weekend.

CincyHorseplayer
05-13-2009, 05:58 PM
I don't know why they pulled Hull, but I'm disappointed. I'm now looking at FF, as I threw out the Derby completely for him. I like the longshot Luv Gov for some reason. It might be a great time for me to bet the longshots again. Of them all POTN is probably the most consistent horse. There is no point in me wasting money on RA. There is no money to be made there unless she comes in with longshots (and anything could happen).

Good luck to you all. I'm off to NYC and Atlantic City for the next week.

I bet Hull in his last race and he had some issues in the stretch.He either couldn't switch leads or was lackadaisical because he kept retarding his own momentum.He won solidly but still raced greenly and should have won by more.It would have been too big of a step even if he hadn't IMO.