Handicap Strategies

[benjamin2]

I have been watching and betting for years. But, I have never really found a good way to handicap a race. I suppose I am still very amateur with it. What do you look for while handicapping a race?

[fmolf]

I have been watching and betting for years. But, I have never really found a good way to handicap a race. I suppose I am still very amateur with it. What do you look for while handicapping a race?
i personally use a comprehensive method look at class, pace, speed and form and see what horse fits and which one has the best numbers and usually narrow the field down to 2 or 3 contenders assigning each one a fair odds price above which i would play that horse or if the odds warrant it play two horses

[Oaklawn]

I guess you could get a million different answers. How fast can the horse run? Who is he/she running against? What kind of pace can you expect? What is the intent of the trainer today? What kind of workouts? Do workouts matter for this trainer? Can the horse handle the distance?

I'd start with Ainslie's books along with Davidowitz and Beyer, learn the DRF and bet lightly if at all. That's what I'm doing at least.

[Wizard of Odds]

You look for where the crowd has underestimated the odds enough to more than overcome the takeout

[fmolf]

You look for where the crowd has underestimated the odds enough to more than overcome the takeout
my sentiments exactly.....well said

[DeadHeat]

That is quite a loaded question and could probably fill an encyclopedia set with different answers from different handicappers. Probably the best thing to do is start reading some handicapping books (check out the handicappers library here on the forum for suggestions.)

I could type for an hour here and not be able to answer that question.

DH

[benjamin2]

I do not have a history of consistency. For example, two days ago at Belmont I hit 6/7 exactas. But, I don't think I could pick a horse to show the last two days.

here is what I look at, in this order:

1) Length ans style of race
2) Track conditions
3) Circle all last race speeds (E1 E2/ LP adn SPD)
4) Circle horse's last speeds at the distance of the race
5) Note run style (and determine what sort of style is winning today/last week)
6) Note Pace and Speed Pars
7) Determine who is unlikely to meet those pars and who will fade/come up late
8) Determine what I think is the most important figure in the race (whether it be pure speed, back speed, class, pace, etc).
9) Determine who meets these criteria and who is likely to meet the criteria of being in the money
10) Consult Bris' power rankings and see how my selections compare and see what I may have overlooked
11) Look over track bias and make sure I am not making a bet that is against all odds and probability.
12) Then, I size up the tote board and bet--I bet conservatively--maybe a $1 exacta or a horse to win.


I feel like I am covering most everything, but cannot find a consistency. Any suggestions?

[andymays]

Handicapping a race is a process that takes time and patience.

Years ago when I first started playing the Horses I always looked at the Racing Form after the races to see what I had missed when I did not have the winner. When you do that you will usually find 1 or more clues that would have led you to that particular winner. Some of the clues are obvious and some are not.

Some years later I decided to develop a process for handicapping a race where I would be able to note all the clues for each Horse in the race. It involves reading a Horses running lines from the bottom up beginning with workouts since raced. It can take me 6 to 8 hours to handicap a 9 race card which includes watching videos of the recent races and going over workout comments.

It can be a royal pain in the ass but handicapping this way has led me to many a longshot and some pretty good scores.

If you have time and patience then this is the best way to go. There really are no shortcuts.

[cmoore]

When handicapping a race...The first thing to do is try to find out who is going to get the lead..Will that particular horse get any pressure..Can he wire the field..A lead all by himself is the best horse to bet on. He sets and controls the pace. Now there are many tips in a race that will get you leader pretty easily..
1)..Pace ratings (times to me or about worthless)
2)..Only E or EP style runner in race
3.) Only runner with 4,5 or 6 speed points or more..All others have 2 or less
4)..Only runner that has led in his last few races
5.)..A runner who showed a change of pace in last race..Meaning they never have shown early speed before but they did in their last..
6.)..Blinkers on and his last work is faster then his previous works. Probably a blinkers on work also
7.)..Horse who have show early speed and are shortening up in distance.

[MNslappy]

benjamin, your post rang true with me, it reminds me of myself.

I think the main things I needed to learn (and am still struggling to learn) are/were, learning when to pass a race and learning to determine the difference between a vulnerable favorite and a beatable one. I find myself often trying to manufacture value where there is none to be found. Being selective about how you bet, how often you bet, how you manage your money have to be right up there with handicapping itself in terms of importance. After learning to handicap, to me that's the next step to learn, at least it seems to be for myself anyway, and I suspect maybe for you too.

hitting 6 of 7 exactas on a card is great. but I bet if you looked at the way most winning or professional players do it, they would never bet 7 races on a single card, because there likely just isn't value to be found in that many races.

[46zilzal]

I have been watching and betting for years. But, I have never really found a good way to handicap a race. I suppose I am still very amateur with it. What do you look for while handicapping a race?
Look at the race as a large seesaw: who is contending at the second call and then from those, who has the best chance from there to the wire?

[fmolf]

Look at the race as a large seesaw: who is contending at the second call and then from those, who has the best chance from there to the wire?
when looking at frontrunners ask yourself does he have the fitness to last to the wire...check his pace figures usually when early goes up late goes down...what i look for is an improving early pace while late pace remains the same in front runners and just the opposite if i like a closer..improving late pace while early pace remains constant...i still belive degree of fitness is the most important key to handicapping....money management and betting practices are at least as important as handicapping

[Easy Goer]

You look for where the crowd has underestimated the odds enough to more than overcome the takeout

I agree 200% with the above. Focus on developing the Money Mngt. side of the Game & Learn to decipher Value offered by each type of race, whether its a Claiming Race, Allowance or Stakes Race. When I first started out playing I used this method & I had several big scoring profitable days sprinkled between the many losing days. The key was my profits exceeded my losses, because when I hit a Tri or Exacta it usually was a Signer.

This method will take a little longer than using the top Speed & Pace Figs, but it will produce better & more consistent profits. The Easy Way to Start with thiis method is, To Not Bet horses going off Lower than $5-2 in the Win Slot & to not be afraid to use horses that are $5-1 or higher all the way up to $60-1 underneath in 2nd, 3rd & 4th in your Exotic bets. When you adhere to these rules it will keep you off the many False-Favs & Peaked-Out horses. You wont be cashing a lot of tickets, but when you do, you will more than make up for your previous losses.

[benjamin2]

Thanks for many insights.

Maybe a few weeks off and examining my wagers both before and after the races is the best. Surely, this will improve my bottom line.

[GaryG]

One more thing - learn to watch races critically. Not just for troubled trips but watch how they gallop out past the wire. You will also learn about jockeys' capabilities (or lack thereof).

Best of luck

[thruncy]

That is quite a loaded question and could probably fill an encyclopedia set with different answers from different handicappers. Probably the best thing to do is start reading some handicapping books (check out the handicappers library here on the forum for suggestions.)

I could type for an hour here and not be able to answer that question.

DHWorks for awhile.

[kid4rilla]

Works for awhile.

Such a small post, but speaks VOLUMES of truth.

[fmolf]

i'll bet if you bet every horse with the highest last race speed fig...every horse with the best pace fig....every horse with the highest earnings per start...every horse with the best jock/trainer stats....every horse dropping in class off a good race.....you'll happen upon about the same number off winners.....it does not really matter how you pick them only how and when you bet them!

[kenwoodallpromos]

Look on the right at the horse's record for the type track for the current race- determine % wins. Then check M/L and convert to expected win %. (2-1 odds is 33% chance of winning; 10-1 odds is 9%. If type track % is larger than M/L win % chance you have an overlay. Bet win or exacta or DD on biggest overlay of that type.

[Valupix]

I usually end up regretting it every time I wade into one of these topics...but here goes.

Keep it ULTRA simple.

Be ULTRA consistent with whatever handicapping factors you use. (as well as ULTRA consistent from were you get them)

Be ULTRA consistent in how you use those few handicapping factors.

After passing the keep it simple and consistency test, a deep trust and respect for it all will be the only path to the self discipline you will need to put it to effective use.

Wait for an clear advantage, be comfortable with taking a pass on marginal plays and/or marginal value. A make it fit mentality will lead to eventual failure.

***AND DON’T!!! go looking for quick fix reasons for those winners that fell just outside the reach of your handicapping practices or just outside your value requirements. (It creates a jumping around effect that makes everything you do worthless) Find a time and place to go back later when your mind is clear and see if there are solid reasons to look for ways to include those fringe plays.

Especially those winners your handicapping methods DID find, but you chose to pass on because of valuation concerns. I mean you liked it and you consciously choose to pass based on lack of value. You know some of those are going to win. You liked it after all, but you didn’t feel fully comfortable with it. Trust your judgment. (If you can’t your not doing something right, probably doing a lot that’s not right) It’s like peeling an apple, you can’t peel it without cutting off some of the good part of the apple. You have to be willing to sacrifice those fringe plays to maintain overall long term effectiveness. Take a positive view about them and look at those winners you passed on as good test of your self discipline.

If you can’t develop your own DEEP trust in what you use, were you get it, how you use them and what to do with it, you're going to continue to go around in what will feel like never ending circles.

If you feel the need to tweak your methods, do so only after thoroughly well tested and well thought out experimenting. (The selections forum can be handy for such activity) Trust it before you use it or change it. (and it’s a heck of a lot better to spend zero dollars on it than it is even $2 on untested, un-trusted handicapping practices)

But that’s just my opinion. In the end I may not have the slightest clue what I’m talking about.

Best of luck to all!

[fmolf]

Look on the right at the horse's record for the type track for the current race- determine % wins. Then check M/L and convert to expected win %. (2-1 odds is 33% chance of winning; 10-1 odds is 9%. If type track % is larger than M/L win % chance you have an overlay. Bet win or exacta or DD on biggest overlay of that type.
i disagree with this method.the morning line is one mans estimate/guess as to what the post time odds will be.I much prefer to make my own m/l if you will of what i think each horse should be in the race and then bet the horse or horses that are overlayed using my line

[DanG]

Be ULTRA consistent with whatever handicapping factors you use. (as well as ULTRA consistent from were you get them)

Be ULTRA consistent in how you use those few handicapping factors.

After passing the keep it simple and consistency test, a deep trust and respect for it all will be the only path to the self discipline you will need to put it to effective use.

Wait for an clear advantage, be comfortable with taking a pass on marginal plays and/or marginal value. A make it fit mentality will lead to eventual failure.

***AND DON’T!!! go looking for quick fix reasons for those winners that fell just outside the reach of your handicapping practices or just outside your value requirements. (It creates a jumping around effect that makes everything you do worthless)

You have to be willing to sacrifice those fringe plays to maintain overall long term effectiveness. Take a positive view about them and look at those winners you passed on as good test of your self discipline.

If you can’t develop your own DEEP trust in what you use, were you get it, how you use them and what to do with it, you're going to continue to go around in what will feel like never ending circles.

Well put Valupix and this advice is so underrated imo. :ThmbUp:

As someone much smarter then I (very long line btw) told me a while back you don’t have to figure out every situation in racing; but you do need a strong foundation that represents your belief system.

If you take 10 good players and lock them in a room for an entire meet they will get a feel for each others strengths. (Assuming they talk to each other of course) At the conclusion of each card most will have a feel for who “should have” scored well. Not every card will meet your strength and in trying to be the greatest multi-dimensional player in existence; you can sometimes weaken your core game.

Some cards just line up for the trip player, the speed player, the pattern reader, the trainer researcher, the dart thrower or whatever. If you’re a player who can master all disciplines simultaneously…bless you and you’re in rarified air. If you have a strong foundation in a particular method…when that card throws you a fast ball down the middle, you need to hit it hard to compensate for the days when others see the pitch well.

[Robert Fischer]

I have been watching and betting for years. But, I have never really found a good way to handicap a race. I suppose I am still very amateur with it. What do you look for while handicapping a race?

What is a similar, less complex problem that you already know the answer to?

Do you know how to handicap a boxing match?

[DeanT]

Especially those winners your handicapping methods DID find, but you chose to pass on because of valuation concerns. I mean you liked it and you consciously choose to pass based on lack of value. You know some of those are going to win. You liked it after all, but you didn’t feel fully comfortable with it. Trust your judgment. (If you can’t your not doing something right, probably doing a lot that’s not right)

That's really good, and very hard to do. I know some have a deep disdain for computer handicapping, but that helps me a great deal with the above plays. It helps me widen my handicapping range and I find many plays a day. if I spent 4 hours handicapping and came up with six plays I like, come hell or high water I am playing them! Huge mistake. Now I might have ten plays a day I like, but I end up betting three or four of them tops because the odds are too low on five or six of them. It is easy to pass races when you are playing more mechanically, because you do not have as many hours sweat into finding the play and feel you have to push.

Anyhow, good post and sound advice, imo.

[fmolf]

That's really good, and very hard to do. I know some have a deep disdain for computer handicapping, but that helps me a great deal with the above plays. It helps me widen my handicapping range and I find many plays a day. if I spent 4 hours handicapping and came up with six plays I like, come hell or high water I am playing them! Huge mistake. Now I might have ten plays a day I like, but I end up betting three or four of them tops because the odds are too low on five or six of them. It is easy to pass races when you are playing more mechanically, because you do not have as many hours sweat into finding the play and feel you have to push.

Anyhow, good post and sound advice, imo.
i agree with you totally...the hardest thing i needed to get used to when i went from a once a month player at the track(betting every race because i was there!)to a more serious but still recreational player was to pass up those 6/5 to 2/1 even 3/1 shots i felt were underlays....then they would win and human nature is to say ...heh i am hot... or i'm a good handicapper and you bet the next one with no overlay.....discipine is the key to long term profits along with value oriented betting

[Jingle]

Benjamin.
STOP TRYING TO PICK WINNERS. The crowd (who you are competing with) does an excellent job of picking winners averging 30-35% year after year.

IMHO the key, as many have mentioned, is to look for the horse/horses the crowd has underestimated and has some value--an overlay. You will sit many races out and probably not win as many races as the crowd does but you'll be ahead of the game. I just can't get excited anymore about having a winner pay $3.20, $4.80 and $5.40.

Discipline is another key. Make a plan and stick with it come hell or high water.

Several years ago I had 7 winners and 1 place horse out of 9 races at Suffolk Downs. I walked out of the track losing money. Why? Because I didn't stick with my game plan. The winners were coming so easy I thought I'd make more money playing exactas and trifectas. I was wrong. Keep it simple and good handicapping to you.

[Mike_412]

Some excellent discussion in here. I'll add one gem that has helped me immensely over the years. Never, and I mean NEVER handicap a race when a woman is around. No offense to any women on here by any means, but you'll be knee deep in pace and speed figures as well as race replays and the inevitable "Honey" or "Babe" will be dropped on you.

Your attention will then be on today's special on the Home Shopping Network, some friggin bug that needs to be squashed, a light bulb that needs to be replaced, your plan of attack as to when you'll be taking the garbage out, can you go get her gas, her b*itch of a coworker, how pissed she is that she broke a nail, why is the washing machine making that noise, how you feel about mowing the lawn tomorrow, and so much other insanity laden babble that you have a better shot of getting away with killing her than developing a succesful wagering strategy for the next day's races.

[46zilzal]

The crowd knows nothing about wagering and the majority of races are close enough, top to bottom, that exotics have to be your major avenue. AND you have to be a selective shopper going through about 5 cards per day minimum to find the logical races. Not too many are prepared to do all that work to find the nuggets.



Second, the crowd does not know how to read biases...good for us

[DeadHeat]

I want to expand a little on what some others have said. The name of the game is to make money, not just pick the winning horse. You want to produce the winning play, or wager. You may have a horse that you feel can win but ends up being the favorite (which can happen quite often). You may find another horse in the same race that would be a value bet by placing it or even betting for show sometimes that will pay more than the horse you picked to win.

Your winning play may be a boxed exacta in certain races. One of your goals should be to look for value in your wager. Most importantly will be your money management.

From my own personal experience, after a big win, I would throw the management out the window and bet however I "felt" like doing. Trying to win that next trifecta or superfecta. I can guarantee you that is a losing way to play.

IMO you should start with a bankroll that you can afford to lose and stick to betting a portion of it (2%, 5%). I also believe if you are going to play exotics that you should use a sererate bankroll for that.

DH

[fmolf]

The crowd knows nothing about wagering and the majority of races are close enough, top to bottom, that exotics have to be your major avenue. AND you have to be a selective shopper going through about 5 cards per day minimum to find the logical races. Not too many are prepared to do all that work to find the nuggets.



Second, the crowd does not know how to read biases...good for us
if you confine your selections to the crowds top three choices you will be getting the winner between 70 and 75 % of the time...the key is how and when you bet them!i seem to find all my longshot plays now with a combination of handicapping and padock/post parade inspection...bad part is you need to be at the track to be effective

[fmolf]

:lSome excellent discussion in here. I'll add one gem that has helped me immensely over the years. Never, and I mean NEVER handicap a race when a woman is around. No offense to any women on here by any means, but you'll be knee deep in pace and speed figures as well as race replays and the inevitable "Honey" or "Babe" will be dropped on you.

Your attention will then be on today's special on the Home Shopping Network, some friggin bug that needs to be squashed, a light bulb that needs to be replaced, your plan of attack as to when you'll be taking the garbage out, can you go get her gas, her b*itch of a coworker, how pissed she is that she broke a nail, why is the washing machine making that noise, how you feel about mowing the lawn tomorrow, and so much other insanity laden babble that you have a better shot of getting away with killing her than developing a succesful wagering strategy for the next day's races.
:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :ThmbUp:

that is priceless and oh so true...i hate when my wife tags along to the track with me...."how much you betting".....it just becomes a stroll in the park when she goes!...."whats wrong with my horse".....all i do is play $2 exactas all day long! :bang: ... :D...then after the sixth race ..."can we get out of here now"

[cmoore]

Some excellent discussion in here. I'll add one gem that has helped me immensely over the years. Never, and I mean NEVER handicap a race when a woman is around. No offense to any women on here by any means, but you'll be knee deep in pace and speed figures as well as race replays and the inevitable "Honey" or "Babe" will be dropped on you.

Your attention will then be on today's special on the Home Shopping Network, some friggin bug that needs to be squashed, a light bulb that needs to be replaced, your plan of attack as to when you'll be taking the garbage out, can you go get her gas, her b*itch of a coworker, how pissed she is that she broke a nail, why is the washing machine making that noise, how you feel about mowing the lawn tomorrow, and so much other insanity laden babble that you have a better shot of getting away with killing her than developing a succesful wagering strategy for the next day's races.

Mike, I'm laughing my ass off..My dryer has been making a noise for months..Washer did too..My girlfriend was so consumed that it would die at any point..We, I mean she decided we needed to buy a new one..The one we have been using for 5 years cost 50 bucks used..But she wanted a new one..So I splurged and found a new washer for 300 bucks on sale..:lol:

Your right about interruptions. Especially during the races with 5-10 minutes to post. Whether it be a phone call, knock on the door..Girlfriend talking about yard work that needs done.

Just the other day I was sitting in my home otb and she was walking up and down the hallway to the bedroom and bathroom 10-15 times it seemed to me..I said, What the hell are doing?..Your driving me crazy..I said I'm shutting my door..Your distracting me..One time she came in and started talking about something on the news about 4 minutes to post. She's obsessed and watches the news constantly..I hate the frickin news..One bad story after another..I liked a long shot and it won and paid over 35 bucks. I got shut out all because she rambled on about the swine flu..I felt sick to my stomach and thought I just contracted the swine flu myself..:lol:

[DanG]

Concerning women breaking gambling concentration and / or a man breaking a women’s concentration for that matter.

Make sure he / or she shares in the scores…in my experience she will have a new respect for the time required and its problem solved. If that doesn’t solve the issue; I recommend scratching the relationship and checking the also-eligible list.

[cmoore]

Concerning women breaking gambling concentration and / or a man breaking a women’s concentration for that matter.

Make sure he / or she shares in the scores…in my experience she will have a new respect for the time required and its problem solved. If that doesn’t solve the issue; I recommend scratching the relationship and checking the also-eligible list.

Would you call that "Shut Up Money"

[fmolf]

Would you call that "Shut Up Money"
but never tell her how much you really won or lost!

[Warren Henry]

Years ago when I sold racing software, I would go to the track with my list of contenders and what I felt were fair odds. My wife ALWAYS went with me to the track. She loves horse racing, so I was lucky, I could go whenever I wanted to go. She is a dedicated $2 show bettor. Her method of selection involves using a list of names she favors from the track program and then looking at the horses in the paddock/post parade/warming up/etc, then betting the ones who would pay most.

Over the years, I learned the hard way that her "look good" show bet horse would often nip my win bet value horse by a nose at the wire. Thus, my favorite exacta became a one way ticket with her horse on top of my horse. This technique kept me from killing her and paid for a lot of great steak dinners after a day of racing.

Sometimes you just have to be aware enough to see what works. :jump:

[pandy]

I have been watching and betting for years. But, I have never really found a good way to handicap a race. I suppose I am still very amateur with it. What do you look for while handicapping a race?

Try this on paper, look for races where the favorite looks very strong. Pass those races. In the other races, using the same handicapping strategy you have been using, highlight the top 4 contenders in each race. Play any horse that goes off at 8-1 or higher, but never more than 2 horses in a race.

Pay careful attention to horses dropping in class that are longshots.