Angles that are hard on the public but make sense.

[Fastracehorse]

I remember a high % trainer that won a race at Woodbine last year. The horse destroyed the field at 10-1.

I remember thinking I was out to lunch on that horse. I studied the horse afterwards. There was nothing to go on the horse except a significant jockey change.

The change in itself appeared quite significant - like a trainer intent move - but the horse literally didn't figure.

I must have puzzled over that horse for quite some time because yesterday a horse had the exact same profile as the one that fooled me.

I made him my prime bet for the day and he wired the field at 6-1.

During the minutes leading up to the race I felt insecure about the horse because most of my handicapping priciples didn't apply here - but the horse jumped out of the page at me because of what I remembered last year.

His previous race Beyer this year was 58.

His race previous to that was 49 1/2.

Yesterday I'm sure he ran in the 80's.

That type of improvemnet leads me to believe that this was a horse saved for a bet - but there was a some trainer intent - a significant jock switch.

Interesting, at least to me.

And since Woodbine is a 9 month meet, what are the chances this trainer tries this again?? He has alot of stock and is high percantage.

fffastt

[Fatl@DMTC.Com]

Hmm, usually his horses only get bet down with Husbands on, the fact it got bet down without Husbands on might suggest some inside money, something to look for in the future.

[sq764]

Sometimes I think its hard to combine logical handicapping, trainer/jockey angles, distance switches, surface switches, off-track, biases, etc... And combine it all together to come out with a winner.

Am I the only one or would others like to totally have our minds cleaned of everything we know about horses, then just teach ourselves all of the important handicapping factors?

[Fastracehorse]

<Sometimes I think its hard to combine logical handicapping, trainer/jockey angles, distance switches, surface switches, off-track, biases, etc... And combine it all together to come out with a winner.

I think you are right, sometimes it is hard. Flexible thinking can aid the 'capper in many situations.

fffastt

[SAL]

I think it was Mark Cramer who wrote sometime ago that the only time a race is worth betting is when there is an angle or a signifigant change with a horse in the race.

I agree with this. I like looking for horses stretching out, trying turf, getting a new trainer, new jock, etc. I have no interest in betting a claiming race where 5 out of the 8 entrants just raced against each other 2 weeks ago.

This is why I believe that jockey/trainer stats are valuable. Usually if a stable is betting money, the have a "go to" guy to ride their live horses.

[Fastracehorse]

What was interesting about this horse is the trainer went from a go to guy to an obscure jock - but the jock was a bug.

Bugs mean intent to me. There was also a big class drop. And, the horse won by many at 6-1.

fffastt

[andicap]

I'm confused Fast
At first you said the only thing the first horse you referred to was a jockey change. Then you said you found a horse Sunday with the SAME PROFILE.

Then in a later post you said it also had a class drop and a change to a bug (not just a jockey change).

There's a big difference in an angle where there's only 1 "karma" factor --jockey change -- and a couple of of karma changes -- class drop and change to a bug.

In fact, one of Mark Cramer's favoriate angles that he has written about often is class drop, jockey change.

[GameTheory]

I believe the first step to handicapping a race is to determine how this race should be handicapped. What is the primary key for this race? Is it pace/speed analysis, class, significant angles, or what? Sometimes you need to handicap it different ways first to bring out all the elements. But trying to weigh the different approaches against one another (does this override that? etc.) doesn't really work. You need to decide what element is the important one, and then ignore the other factors.

[Fastracehorse]

<In fact, one of Mark Cramer's favoriate angles that he has written about often is class drop, jockey change.

Yes, but Cramer is talking of trainer intent in the context of logic.
This horse had trainer intent, but no logic.

My main point was: If you evaluated the horse based on performance ( even with the class drop ) you most likely would have said pass.

I wasn't trying to pull the wool over anyone's eyes. Rememer, I titled the thread: Angles that are hard on the public. What I mean by the latter is: People don't recognize the switch from a top jock to an obscure bug as meaningful. Further, the class drop is irrelevant to the public because as I said earlier, his perfomance had to be drastically improved to contend.

This was a horse saved for a bet.

To re-capitulate Andicap to save you further confusion, trainer intent is powerful, but live horses occur in the context of logic. This horse did not. Further, this horse had a special angle. Lastly, a horse saved for a bet.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

My approach to handicapping is determining who ran the best in the past. And, which horse's will run their best today. Trainer intentions aid with the aforementioned.

Lastly, will he get a favorable trip.

All angles are to me are evidences of form.

fffastt

[Doug]

IMO angles and trainer intent are one in the same.

Find the horse (s) with some significant trainer intentions and play acorrding to odds (must be damn good). Some very juicy mutuals.

The first 2 factors I look for are: improved early speed and any hidden class drop.

Doug

[Fastracehorse]

Well said.

fffastt

[rmania]

Originally posted by SAL@NETCAPPER
...I have no interest in betting a claiming race where 5 out of the 8 entrants just raced against each other 2 weeks ago... IMO these are the best races for finding a price.

As we all know, most horses (especially claimers) rarely run two races alike. In fact, if one was to track these types of race (i.e., 5 out of 8 raced against each other last time) you would find that they take turns beating each other. And usally the public is betting on the one(s) with the best last-race form.

[Fastracehorse]

Claimers are great!

fffastt

[delayjf]

Some days the pace handicappers have the winner and some days the trainer, breeding, etc, handicappers have the winners. Just goes to show you that there are more than one way to skin this cat.

My personal experince with horses like this is that they show the ability to compete with this field somewhere in their PP's. Unless they are a 2 or 3 year old, who are eligible to improve, often dramatically.

I've often suspected trainers read trainer stats and at times purposefully do the opposite to throw off the crowd.
Like win with a first time starter when their FTS stats are poor.

[lonestar]

This subject has probably been beat to shreds from time to time..... but shouldn't the intent of the trainer be to do his best to get his horse in the money (purse)? EVERY race?

[superfecta]

Originally posted by lonestar
This subject has probably been beat to shreds from time to time..... but shouldn't the intent of the trainer be to do his best to get his horse in the money (purse)? EVERY race? Not really.What should happen is that the trainer makes sure the horse runs to the best of his ability in that race ,at that point in his conditioning..Which is not the same as trying to win or get a piece of the purse.

[lonestar]

That is the better terminology....should make sure the horse runs to the best of his ability.

Which doesn't always happen. Except maybe when the public has been convinced the horse doesn't have much ability,until the odds are right.

Ahhh! The horse is dead. No need in beating it.

[Fastracehorse]

<shouldn't the intent of the trainer be to do his best to get his horse in the money (purse)? EVERY race?

If you think too logically you'll be fed to the wolves.

:) :) :) :)

fffastt

[hurrikane]

nice catch fffassttt.

I'm going to assume you are talking about Golden Aberdeen in the 5th on Sun, but then you know what happens when you assume

I'll give my take for what it's worth...which is not much on a redboard.
first...I would not have been on this horse or probably even bet this race. (disclaimer)

IMHO

1. this horse was not dropping in class. from a c20 restricted to an open 16 is not a drop. Although she has been steadily dropping in price..it wasn't a drop from her last race.

2. most of the horses in this race were actually stepping up in class. Either from cheap mcl or restricted claiming races.

3. Probably the only thing that would have opened my eyes to this horse is the trainer is 6/18 in the last 30 days. That is strong. 33%. That is hot and a hot trainer is money in the bank.

4. this was a very contentious race. you could have probably started your handicapping by throwing out the favorite which would have faired very well for the 4...especially at 6-1.

5. What the hell am I talking about. :D

[Fastracehorse]

But you are right about one thing: it was Golden Aberdeed!

<IMHO

1. this horse was not dropping in class. from a c20 restricted to an open 16 is not a drop. Although she has been steadily dropping in price..it wasn't a drop from her last race.

Hurrikane, the horse dropped from N3L to N2L - that's what U missed.

U are right about another thing: Trainer Abraham Katryan is extremely talented - and this was a special angle for him. I learned it the hard way last year - but at least the pain of defeat lingers long with me.

The horse won like an intended Katryan too - 6 or 7 lengths - nice feeling.

fffastt

[lonestar]

"If you think too logically you'll be fed to the wolves."

Can't disagree with that statement fffastt. In the past that type of thinking has not only cost me a shirt but the jeans as well:(

Just tongue in cheek mostly, reality says there is no place for that type of thinking when it comes to mixing people and money.

Every day brings a new learning experience LOL... seems like I learn more if I talk less:)

[Doug]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
But you are right about one thing: it was Golden Aberdeed!

<IMHO

1. this horse was not dropping in class. from a c20 restricted to an open 16 is not a drop. Although she has been steadily dropping in price..it wasn't a drop from her last race.

Hurrikane, the horse dropped from N3L to N2L - that's what U missed.

U are right about another thing: Trainer Abraham Katryan is extremely talented - and this was a special angle for him. I learned it the hard way last year - but at least the pain of defeat lingers long with me.

The horse won like an intended Katryan too - 6 or 7 lengths - nice feeling.

fffastt

Fast,

That is the type of hidden class drop that fits into big time trainer intent.

Doug

[hurrikane]

well, say what you will. I don't think that is a big class drop.
The pars are about the same for both levels.
Big thing here was it was such a weak field. Most horses were raising in class which in that light you could say she was dropping into a weaker field.

That and a trainer.

Anyway..nice hit.
Won't make a year...but could make your week.

[Fastracehorse]

<... seems like I learn more if I talk less

We could all learn from that.

But us hoss players can't help it - we are a passionate people.

:) :) :) :)

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<Won't make a year...but could make your week.

That wasn't the point of my post though - it was: 'Angles that are hard on the public.'

I posted longshot # 36 from California yesterday - very, very interesting horse - I'll post that tomorrow for your dissection.

:) :)

fffastt