Big Drama

[Smarty Cide]

What do you guys expect from this horse in the Preakness? He is really one of the betting X factors for the race. Only 2 horses in the past 25 years have won the Preakness without racing in the derby...

[Dahoss9698]

What do you guys expect from this horse in the Preakness? He is really one of the betting X factors for the race. Only 2 horses in the past 25 years have won the Preakness without racing in the derby...

The game has changed a lot in 25 years though. 2 of the last 9 winners of the race didn't start in the Derby. His comebacker was solid, I imagine at the very least he'll be a pace presence.

[Smarty Cide]

do you think he is on the level of Pioneerof The Nile, Papa Clem, or Musket Man? Is Rachel Alexandra even on another level above that? Friesan Fire - how do you bet him at this point? Alot of questions with this Preakness. and almost impossible to handicap. Lats year was easy i did $20 Big Brown with all... This year i have no clue how to bet it.....

[Dahoss9698]

I wasn't really impressed with any of the 3 you mentioned going in or coming out of the Derby so who knows. Rachel has done everything right, but is she a good play as the probable favorite? I don't know. I think the closer we get, it'll be a lot easier to draw better conclusions.

[Smarty Cide]

you gotta figure musket man is a good play. 7 career starts never out of the money... thats impressive.. i was even thinking of putting $100 to show on him.

how can you not like Pioneerof The Nile I think he proved he can run on dirt in the derby. I mean if you werent impressed with them who were you impressed in?

[Dahoss9698]

you gotta figure musket man is a good play. 7 career starts never out of the money... thats impressive.. i was even thinking of putting $100 to show on him.

how can you not like Pioneerof The Nile I think he proved he can run on dirt in the derby. I mean if you werent impressed with them who were you impressed in?

I was impressed with the way Calvin Borel got through the smallest of holes to get by Join In The Dance in the stretch. That was about it. What was impressive about the other 3? How slow they ran?

[Smarty Cide]

it was an off track and basically we saw a fluke. I mean its awsome that a 50-1 won the derby, but PON i bet will have a pretty goos 3 year old season when all is said and done. Musket Man 7 starts 7 times hitting the board - thats impressive is it not? Like I said if you dont like them who do you like in the Preakness?

[Dahoss9698]

it was an off track and basically we saw a fluke. I mean its awsome that a 50-1 won the derby, but PON i bet will have a pretty goos 3 year old season when all is said and done. Musket Man 7 starts 7 times hitting the board - thats impressive is it not? Like I said if you dont like them who do you like in the Preakness?

I'm sure POTN will have a good season too. It doesn't mean he's a "good" horse per se. He ran better than I expected in the Derby, but I still thought he ran kind of blah. Musket Man is a nice horse too, and he'll make his connections a lot of money this year. But I wasn't real impressed. I'm not really sure who I like. The race is over a week away and the entries aren't out yet.

[Smarty Cide]

I'm sure POTN will have a good season too. It doesn't mean he's a "good" horse per se. He ran better than I expected in the Derby, but I still thought he ran kind of blah. Musket Man is a nice horse too, and he'll make his connections a lot of money this year. But I wasn't real impressed. I'm not really sure who I like. The race is over a week away and the entries aren't out yet.

thats true but its fun to speculate, If Rachel Alexandra runs it will be a great race...

[matthewsiv]

Big Drama is a tough colt,who fought hard to win and was then DQ on his return at Gulfstream Park in the Swale.
I do not know if he will stay 9 furlongs,but he is a good horse.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Do horses react different the next race due to losing in the mud/slop?

[SmartyLane]

Big Drama is a tough colt,who fought hard to win and was then DQ on his return at Gulfstream Park in the Swale.
I do not know if he will stay 9 furlongs,but he is a good horse.

I would be surprised if he can get the distance. A very speedy horse with a high cruising speed, but the distance will get him in my opinion. I will have no qualms about putting RA on top of exacta/tri's. I am that sure in her as a race horse. I read somewhere only two horses have come to win the Preakness w/out running the Derby, and the last one would have to be Bernardini. Well, things seem to work out different in these times and RA WILL win the Preakness IMO. Should be some nice payouts once again. Not going to lie, I would really like to see MTB make a run at her coming down the stretch. Wouldn't that be something!!

POTN, MM, PC, will be up there for sure. As for FF, not sure what to think of him right now.

[stuball]

I can't understand why people keep bashing MTB and building up the other horses. MTB already has had a great year.....He won the derby for cripes sake....so many experts
out there tearing him down...I hope he wins the Preakness
just to see what all these experts will say then..

Way to go Mine That Bird


Stuball
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Robert Fischer]

Big Drama has talent, you definitely want him in the gate for the Preakness.

[SmartyLane]

I can't understand why people keep bashing MTB and building up the other horses. MTB already has had a great year.....He won the derby for cripes sake....so many experts
out there tearing him down...I hope he wins the Preakness
just to see what all these experts will say then..

Way to go Mine That Bird


Stuball
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:


I agree 100%!!!!!!!!!

I would love to see him win the Preakness, which I really think he can unless RA runs. Just my opinion.

[fmolf]

Big Drama has talent, you definitely want him in the gate for the Preakness.he does and he will make the race interesting.... rachel has raced twice on two weeks rest as a two yr old and finished 2nd both times for whatever that is worth... i might point her to the belmont if i were her connections...i still think papa clem was the best horse derby day not named mtb

[toussaud]

he does and he will make the race interesting.... rachel has raced twice on two weeks rest as a two yr old and finished 2nd both times for whatever that is worth... i might point her to the belmont if i were her connections...i still think papa clem was the best horse derby day not named mtb


she also finished 6th in her first start. I would not look at anything in her 2YO year as any real indication of what she is and is not capable of doing. no where near the same filly.

[Watcher]

If Stardom Bound and Justwhistledixie, were both healthy and running at the level we were use to them running... how much closer would the Oaks have been?

[SmartyLane]

If Stardom Bound and Justwhistledixie, were both healthy and running at the level we were use to them running... how much closer would the Oaks have been?


JustWhistleDixie would of been in the same boat as GGG. And Stardom Bound relies on closing on horses in her races. A fast pace is what she needs so that she can run down the horses slowing down at the end. RA doesn't doesn't slow down. My 2 cents

[toussaud]

If Stardom Bound and Justwhistledixie, were both healthy and running at the level we were use to them running... how much closer would the Oaks have been?

she wins by 15 instead of 20

[Cat Thief]

All kinds of stats have fallen by the wayside the last few years. I think he is better than most of the other derby horses but I don't know about the filly. It is hard to conclude anything as the filly hasn't raced the colts. As we do not know about Mine That Bird as he might be right in his groove at the moment you have to take him into consideration so it will be a good betting race.

[matthewsiv]

If Stardom Bound and Justwhistledixie, were both healthy and running at the level we were use to them running... how much closer would the Oaks have been?
They would have been 10 lengths behind.
:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:

[Cat Thief]

I would like to see him win the Preakness too but am sorry he will not have his jockey, the guy knows him. Never know he may do it.

[Show Me the Wire]

Too bad the best 3 year old couldn't participate in the TC. The grapefruit in french.

[WinterTriangle]

Keep in mind the best horse doesn't always win. Too many factors involved, traffic, etc. Rachel has talent, that's for sure. Mine That Bird has a lot of heart and is also no slouch.

Rachel has also not run against colts. All the races you've seen her run in have been against other fillies. You cannot predict what will happen. There is a psychology there.

Nobody is a shoe-in here. Papa Clem, Musket Man, MTB, POTN all did fantastic job in Derby......they will not be *fresh*.

So many questions, if you ask me.

[newtothegame]

I would like to see him win the Preakness too but am sorry he will not have his jockey, the guy knows him. Never know he may do it.

I personally do not think one race makes a jock know the horse....If I am not mistaken, this was Borels first time up on MTB. Now I would make a STRONG case for Borel knowing that track!!!

[Spendabuck85]

Big Drama will race with Blinkers Off in the Preakness according to his trainer David Fawkes

[Smarty Cide]

Big Drama will race with Blinkers Off in the Preakness according to his trainer David Fawkes

what does that mean? and no i dont mean physically... i know he is not going to be wearing blinkers

[rjorio]

Big drama is stretching out from a 7f sprint.The removal of blinkers may help him relax and get the added distance.This is a common move.

[joanied]

she wins by 15 instead of 20

:ThmbUp:

[joanied]

she also finished 6th in her first start. I would not look at anything in her 2YO year as any real indication of what she is and is not capable of doing. no where near the same filly.

:ThmbUp: She was simply slow to develope...not surprising considering her size and possibly even her bloodlines.

[joanied]

Keep in mind the best horse doesn't always win. Too many factors involved, traffic, etc. Rachel has talent, that's for sure. Mine That Bird has a lot of heart and is also no slouch.

Rachel has also not run against colts. All the races you've seen her run in have been against other fillies. You cannot predict what will happen. There is a psychology there.

Nobody is a shoe-in here. Papa Clem, Musket Man, MTB, POTN all did fantastic job in Derby......they will not be *fresh*.

So many questions, if you ask me.

Agreed..it either makes this more fun:jump: or gives us all headaches:bang:

Watching Pursuit of the Crown this morning...Gary Stute called Baffert to see if he coudn't enter another colt so RA won't get in :D

[Relwob Owner]

Agreed..it either makes this more fun:jump: or gives us all headaches:bang:

Watching Pursuit of the Crown this morning...Gary Stute called Baffert to see if he coudn't enter another colt so RA won't get in :D


Baffert called him back to thank him for not claiming foul last weekend:):)

[joanied]

Baffert called him back to thank him for not claiming foul last weekend:):)

:lol:

[Cat Thief]

Probably means he will go to the front anf try to wire the field

[WinterTriangle]

do you think he is on the level of Pioneerof The Nile, Papa Clem, or Musket Man? Is Rachel Alexandra even on another level above that?

Steve Roman's PF for Big Drama is -65. That's the highest besides RA's. But distance may be a problem.

As usual, something thrown in to gum things up. but.... MTB was supposedly way too slow to win the Derby...... :)

[LemonSoupKid]

This horse is fast, runs nicely out front, and is underrated because of unlegendary bloodlines. He is maturing nicely and I think he's much better than people think. He's won 5 of 7 and I like it. I have found stretching out (to routes) is easier than pullling back.

I was on POTN for the Derby and he looks like he came out well and is working well. I don't want to abandon him now, I'll be playing him in some fashion ... I've got to.

[riskman]

I wasn't really impressed with any of the 3 you mentioned going in or coming out of the Derby so who knows. Rachel has done everything right, but is she a good play as the probable favorite? I don't know. I think the closer we get, it'll be a lot easier to draw better conclusions.

You were not impressed with PON and Musket, yet they finished second and third. Hopefully the Preakness will be run on a fast track--and we will see how these two end up. I liked Musket in the derby.PON worked today at Pimlico covered the distance in fractions of :12 1/5, :24 1/5 and :36 1/5, then galloped out five furlongs in 1:00 1/5 and six furlongs in 1:14 2/5. The clocking of PON gallop-out for five furlongs would have tied as the fastest work of the day at that distance. Musket Man had a 1 3/4-mile gallop Monday morning at Monmouth Park, where I believe he had a a final half-mile workout today.
Both of these should run a decent race but as of this moment I am waiting to see the post positions and go over the PP's on the other entrants.
Good luck to you.

[LemonSoupKid]

Risk,

You astutely point out that the impressions are relative. What more does one want? We're betting the races, not having hypotheticals against legendary horses like Seattle Slew or Spectacular Bid. If someone isn't impressed, that only means something if you can tell me where that leads you to betting wise.

Winning or running in the money always means something --- and more so when the field is 20 (19) horses.

[Dahoss9698]

You were not impressed with PON and Musket, yet they finished second and third.

POTN had a pretty good trip for a 19 horse field and was lucky to be 2nd. I don't think he really distinguished himself from the rest, although he ran a lot better than I thought he was going to. Musket Man is a nice horse, he'll win lots of money for his connections and he could have a nice year. I just didn't see anything in his race that stood out. What was impressive to you about the way they ran?

Looking just at where horses finished can be tricky. Stone Legacy and Flying Spur ran 2nd and 3rd in the Oaks. I don't think anyone would say they were impressed with the way they ran.

[LemonSoupKid]

Hoss,

I'm with you in general --- if we are talking 8 horse fields like the Oaks. But there is something to be said about trips as well that a horse should receive credit for. Forward placement, a good break and overall start, and rating and handling by the jockey are quality horse attributes that coincide.

I'm not gonna say that I was impressed historically but I don't think you can take that much out of the slop race except for the fact that Musket was 5 of 6 and he went into a 19 horse field and ran 3rd against (some of) the best colts around. Ditto Pioneer of the Nile. For me they substantiated "grit" or will to win and as a 3 year old I put some good (not all) stock in that. If these were fully mature horses that couldn't move up for reasons unknown, I would indeed be somewhat blah on these guys. But that's not the case here.

Consequently, Mine that Bird substantiated nothing in the race, because he had nothing to reinforce in terms of PPs. I could be making a mistake but unless the track is sloppy and some dream scenario occurs, I'll make him beat me again. If that happens I'll at least crack a smile.

[Dahoss9698]

Hoss,

I'm with you in general --- if we are talking 8 horse fields like the Oaks. But there is something to be said about trips as well that a horse should receive credit for. Forward placement, a good break and overall start, and rating and handling by the jockey are quality horse attributes that coincide.

I'm not gonna say that I was impressed historically but I don't think you can take that much out of the slop race except for the fact that Musket was 5 of 6 and he went into a 19 horse field and ran 3rd against (some of) the best colts around. Ditto Pioneer of the Nile. For me they substantiated "grit" or will to win and as a 3 year old I put some good (not all) stock in that. If these were fully mature horses that couldn't move up for reasons unknown, I would indeed be somewhat blah on these guys. But that's not the case here.

Consequently, Mine that Bird substantiated nothing in the race, because he had nothing to reinforce in terms of PPs. I could be making a mistake but unless the track is sloppy and some dream scenario occurs, I'll make him beat me again. If that happens I'll at least crack a smile.

I agree with a lot of what you have said, especially in regards to Mine That Bird. I'll probably use Musket Man a little in the pick 4. I just don't know if POTN can win a race like this on the dirt. If he does, I lose and I'm wrong. Won't be the first or last time for either. And if Mine That Bird wins again I'll crack a smile also. I think we all will.

[LemonSoupKid]

As I always say, "You have to take a stand against somebody."

Indeed, it's called gambling for a reason. Not only do you lose if you bet'em all ... it ain't any fun.