What about the Beyer numbers

[Bruddah]

I would prefer to have Cj's numbers for the race but can anyone point me to the Beyer #'s for the Ky Derby.

Thanks
Bruddah

[Bruddah]

I found where the Bird was given a 105 Beyer for his Derby Win. Means the others were below 100. Pioneer of the Nile still hasn't received a 100+Beyer or higher in any of his races. Amazing! :eek:

[CBedo]

If I remember right, Rachel Alexandria got a 108 the day before!

[LemonSoupKid]

You tell me:

Is Rachel Alexandra 10 lengths better than Pioneer of the Nile?

Is she 20 better than Dunkirk?

hahaha

[Relwob Owner]

You tell me:

Is Rachel Alexandra 10 lengths better than Pioneer of the Nile?

Is she 20 better than Dunkirk?

hahaha



She may be 25 better than Dunkirk.....

[LemonSoupKid]

Obviously, I'm poking fun at comparing:

8 horse field on a moist track

to

20 horse field in the slop


And the conclusion is that for most horses, these Beyers mean nothing.

[slewis]

If Quality Road would have run in and won the KD.... and it was Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and I want Revenge that ran 2-3-4.. The Beyer would have been 121 and everyone would be oooo-ing and ahh-ing this week.


Sometimes this sport and those that are the spokespersons for it (like the DRF writers, especially the biggest clown of all Mike Watchmaker) are an absolute joke.

[LemonSoupKid]

It's funny ... I used to think Watchmaker was fun and interesting to listen to, until ... I saw that not a single one of his predictions or insights into what has happened or will happened ever led to the selection of a winner on any sort of big stage.

He's a guy that makes you think he knows by the way he analyzes, but ultimately fails because he can't synthesize the information properly. For him, 1+2 always comes out as 4.

And the end product, unfortunately, is all that matters in this game. The winners.

[the little guy]

If Quality Road would have run in and won the KD.... and it was Dunkirk, Friesan Fire, and I want Revenge that ran 2-3-4.. The Beyer would have been 121 and everyone would be oooo-ing and ahh-ing this week.




While I know you are biased because of your association with Musket Man, but I also know you are very sharp, and thus know the Beyer fig he earned in the Derby fits with the kind of horse he is, but it is beginning to seem like you have lent your login out to someone else.

I know you're exagerating, but if Quality Road had run in the Derby, and won, with good horses ( I will exclude Friesan Fire as I don't consider him very good ) ran well behind him, the fig probably would have been good.....and you know this being an intelligent figure maker. It didn't happen this year, for a variety of reasons, and you know the second, third, and fourth finishers confirm the Beyer number. I KNOW you realize this.....so please don't dummy down for affect here.

Consider me your conscience.

[Relwob Owner]

Obviously, I'm poking fun at comparing:

8 horse field on a moist track

to

20 horse field in the slop


And the conclusion is that for most horses, these Beyers mean nothing.


Oh, I know...I was poking fun at Dunkirk:)

[BombsAway Bob]

It's funny ... I used to think Watchmaker was fun and interesting to listen to, until ... I saw that not a single one of his predictions or insights into what has happened or will happened ever led to the selection of a winner on any sort of big stage.
He's a guy that makes you think he knows by the way he analyzes, but ultimately fails because he can't synthesize the information properly. For him, 1+2 always comes out as 4.
And the end product, unfortunately, is all that matters in this game. The winners.
that's pretty funny, since after 4 months of Selections on TVG's "Blinkers Off", Mike has a postive R.O.I... you must be playing only his losing selections...

[slewis]

While I know you are biased because of your association with Musket Man, but I also know you are very sharp, and thus know the Beyer fig he earned in the Derby fits with the kind of horse he is, but it is beginning to seem like you have lent your login out to someone else.

I know you're exagerating, but if Quality Road had run in the Derby, and won, with good horses ( I will exclude Friesan Fire as I don't consider him very good ) ran well behind him, the fig probably would have been good.....and you know this being an intelligent figure maker. It didn't happen this year, for a variety of reasons, and you know the second, third, and fourth finishers confirm the Beyer number. I KNOW you realize this.....so please don't dummy down for affect here.

Consider me your conscience.

Whhhoooaaaa... you've crossed the line here little one.

I've been making figures for 15 yrs now... and figures are figures and they dont run races on paper, they run them on the racetrack......
BUT.. I have NEVER.. NEVER fudged or been biased in my figure calculation.
I have someone to answer to... actually several (incl. my own bank acct.)
It is my opinion, using my experience in figure making, that there was one standout in this years crop and that was I want Revenge.
Not Quality Road, and not Dunkirk....

Quality Road and Dunkirk had run fast times on souped up racetracks, and your friends over at DRF got tire tracks on their panties when their mathematical formula came up "too slow". So, in light of the fact that there was only 1 (one) one-turn race that FL Derby day (a stupid move by the racing sec.) ... they fudged it, uhh, I mean adjusted it in line with IWR's figures. I only wish and prayed QR would have run in the Derby... he'd have finished up the track.. the way Duncrap did... And Musket Man (and my biased opinion) has zippo to do with it.

BTW.. If you think Friesan Fire is not a good horse.. I guess you're not impressed by Rachel A because they ran bang up races on the same card.

[Smarty Cide]

She may be 25 better than Dunkirk.....

has dunkirk finished the race yet you think?

[toussaud]

i actually do think Rachael is 10 lengths better than POTN. He's extremely consistant. He's a 94-98 beyer type of horse.

the only reason he was second (outside the fact he didn't get DQ'ed) is becuase Quality Road and I want revenge didn't run. Had they ran he'd be off the board and the top 3 would have been quality road, I want revenege and MInd that bird. I dont' know in what order however.


I'm not going to say it is not possible, but if you are betting on POtN to win the preakness, you are banking on him on breaking the 94-98 beyer trend and running the race of his life. It's going to take a 105ish beyer at least to win the preakness.

[Relwob Owner]

has dunkirk finished the race yet you think?


Coming around the far turn as we speak....

[Smarty Cide]

i actually do think Rachael is 10 lengths better than POTN. He's extremely consistant. He's a 94-98 beyer type of horse.

the only reason he was second (outside the fact he didn't get DQ'ed) is becuase Quality Road and I want revenge didn't run. Had they ran he'd be off the board and the top 3 would have been quality road, I want revenege and MInd that bird. I dont' know in what order however.


I'm not going to say it is not possible, but if you are betting on POtN to win the preakness, you are banking on him on breaking the 94-98 beyer trend and running the race of his life. It's going to take a 105ish beyer at least to win the preakness.

are beyers really that important?

[toussaud]

I am not a beyer person as far as purly handicapping a race but they are an extremely useful tool for generally judging a horses talent.

By that, he's going to run better than he has ran in the past, b y how much I don't know, but he is going to have to run better than he has in the past to win this race. after MTB i'm not even going to say it's not possible, but you are making a mistake if you think POTN's derby performance is good enough to win the preakness

[the little guy]

Whhhoooaaaa... you've crossed the line here little one.



Sorry.....I didn't realize I was being serious.

[slewis]

Sorry.....I didn't realize I was being serious.


You weren't .... but it's always fun if everyone thinks you are...

BTW... we miss you outside.... They should have just built you a Bullet-proof glass studio adjacent to the paddock with an armed security guard.

[the little guy]

You weren't .... but it's always fun if everyone thinks you are...

BTW... we miss you outside.... They should have just built you a Bullet-proof glass studio adjacent to the paddock with an armed security guard.


My great act of generosity is backfiring.

[Smarty Cide]

what kind of a effect does a sloppy track have on beyers?

[fmolf]

what kind of a effect does a sloppy track have on beyers?
it depends on how other races that day were run...if they were slow the variant would be high vice a versa if races are run fast that day variant is low...then if the numbers seem to high or to low they can be adjusted by the man himself!!!...how that happens i will never know....he always said the "figs don't lie"...til he changes them... :D

[Smarty Cide]

i guess i just dont get beyers... explain this to me: for example, Pioneerof The Nile, up til the derby he seemed to run his races as a closer of sorts like when he hawked down I Want Revenge. So if the pace of the race was slower but he makes a great stretch run and runs down the front running horses, isnt that gonna not reflect in his beyer?

People seem to discount PON because of his beyers saying he isnt fast enough but based on his running style wouldnt the beyers be less important? Am I missing something? someone please explain... thanks

[cj]

BTW.. If you think Friesan Fire is not a good horse.. I guess you're not impressed by Rachel A because they ran bang up races on the same card.

While they ran similar final time numbers, the pace for the boys was much slower than the pace for the girls. Also, Rachel A has proven she is even better than that, while FF may have demonstated that was his best.

[slewis]

i guess i just dont get beyers... explain this to me: for example, Pioneerof The Nile, up til the derby he seemed to run his races as a closer of sorts like when he hawked down I Want Revenge. So if the pace of the race was slower but he makes a great stretch run and runs down the front running horses, isnt that gonna not reflect in his beyer?

People seem to discount PON because of his beyers saying he isnt fast enough but based on his running style wouldnt the beyers be less important? Am I missing something? someone please explain... thanks

Beyer only takes final time into consideration.......

(Unless it's the FL Derby, then it's fudge the figures time.)

[slewis]

While they ran similar final time numbers, the pace for the boys was much slower than the pace for the girls. Also, Rachel A has proven she is even better than that, while FF may have demonstated that was his best.

Then I guess Dont forget Gils race in the FL oaks puts her ahead of Join inthe dance, General Quarters and Musket Man..... CJ, Please.. there is much more to making figures then what you're suggesting here.. and we BOTH know this.

Rachel has proven she can dominate Fillies, but against colts, ON THE DIRT.. it's a much more difficult task.

I disagree with Beyers assessment of the KY Oaks and KY Derby....

There was an GR2 F&M race 2 or so prior to the KY Oaks and that race went every BIT (incl. the splits) as fast as RA's.... While Rusty's filly is a nice horse, she didn't run a 114....Unless Beyer is going to fudge that one as well.. (which is possible).

[fmolf]

Then I guess Dont forget Gils race in the FL oaks puts her ahead of Join inthe dance, General Quarters and Musket Man..... CJ, Please.. there is much more to making figures then what you're suggesting here.. and we BOTH know this.

Rachel has proven she can dominate Fillies, but against colts, ON THE DIRT.. it's a much more difficult task.

I disagree with Beyers assessment of the KY Oaks and KY Derby....

There was an GR2 F&M race 2 or so prior to the KY Oaks and that race went every BIT (incl. the splits) as fast as RA's.... While Rusty's filly is a nice horse, she didn't run a 114....Unless Beyer is going to fudge that one as well.. (which is possible).
i will be interested to see the bris pp's for the preakness to see how they have treated the races on derby day...including their pace figs...

[JPinMaryland]

One other thing about POTN, has he really been running full out in Calif? SOme of these fields he's beaten up on doesnt look like he's being pushed to the wire. Who's to say he couldnt get a few more pts out of a more determined run at least in Calif? At CD he looks like that was about his best but then again another horse was bearing in on him so..

[Relwob Owner]

One other thing about POTN, has he really been running full out in Calif? SOme of these fields he's beaten up on doesnt look like he's being pushed to the wire. Who's to say he couldnt get a few more pts out of a more determined run at least in Calif? At CD he looks like that was about his best but then again another horse was bearing in on him so..


I thought that of all the horses in the Deby who could be looked at skeptically in their next race, POTN is the probably the biggest one....seemed to me that he got an almost perfect trip in the Derby, was full out and ran almost the same Beyer as before....also, was there a horse bearing in on him? I saw it that he came out oretty good on PC and MM in the stretch....

[JPinMaryland]

well I cant recall exactly who was bumping whom, but I think the pt. is there was some traffic in the stretch run and it's hard to say if the horse was paying more attention to that then running his race.


I too was very skeptical of POTN going into the derby namely because that poly turf stuff just really hard to hard to handicap and they dont really run the same way at all on dirt. But he looked like he could dig in and make a sustained dirt-type of run even though he was running on poly..

[JPinMaryland]

I dunno, I just watched the San Rafeal and the SA derby again. He's hitting him, but not the whole time, he's certainly got a clear lead and no one is gaining on him which I take to be a positive. Even though he's made the lead at the top of the stretch none of these late running types can slice into his lead. I havent watched enuf Calif racing to know if that more typical of the SA surface; I assume it's like turf racing but I know they changed the surface recently so...Are there enuf 8 1/2; 9f races to get an accurate reading at SA? The pace is usually slower than on dirt but if that's typical of other SA races, then it should be a wash.

[Relwob Owner]

well I cant recall exactly who was bumping whom, but I think the pt. is there was some traffic in the stretch run and it's hard to say if the horse was paying more attention to that then running his race.


I too was very skeptical of POTN going into the derby namely because that poly turf stuff just really hard to hard to handicap and they dont really run the same way at all on dirt. But he looked like he could dig in and make a sustained dirt-type of run even though he was running on poly..


Gotcha....he did seem to adapt to the dirt type of race and maybe he can improve off that....I will probably be betting against him and going with papa clem, so I guess since he was in that stretch bumping, you and I may be sort of on the same page in how we are looking at it

[DrugS]

BTW.. If you think Friesan Fire is not a good horse.. I guess you're not impressed by Rachel A because they ran bang up races on the same card.

Who cares about speed figures on wet track days? It was a very odd track that day that some horses just didn't handle - Slew's Tiznow looked like he was on ice skates for example.

When weather and the footing are like that - it's a whole different animal.

Friesan Fire winning the La Derby in identical final time as Rachel Alexandra on the same card - doesn't mean he ran as well from an analytical standpoint.

The pace in RA's race was faster - a pace in which she set - and her trainer Hal Wiggins was 0-for-35 with horses 2nd off of a layoff coming into that race. Her margin of victory over Flying Spur was less than two lengths that day.

In his start prior to the La Derby - Friesan Fire won the Risen Star stakes in final time of 1:45.11 .. the 3yo filly War Echo won the Silverbulletday in 1:45.20 just one race earlier on the same card.

Two starts prior to the La Derby - Friesan Fire won the Lecomte in 1:37.67 - one race earlier, Just Jenda won the Tiffany Lass in 1:38.15

Just Jenda is a moderate horse who's run 6 consecutive Beyers in the 80's .. running 0.48 seconds faster than her is no great achievement.

[DrugS]

There was an GR2 F&M race 2 or so prior to the KY Oaks and that race went every BIT (incl. the splits) as fast as RA's.... While Rusty's filly is a nice horse, she didn't run a 114....Unless Beyer is going to fudge that one as well.. (which is possible).

When you say "Rusty's filly" - who is a nice horse - I assume you mean One Caroline.

However, One Caroline didn't even win that race ... the absurd Miss Isella - with Calvin Borel up - beat her.

Miss Isella was beaten 10 lengths by One Caroline in her previous dirt start - and had a career top Beyer of 88 coming into the race... she's a 4yo making her 14th career start.

I agree with you that the no talent Miss Isella ran well to run down a loose on the lead slight cut-backing One Caroline .. but she ain't gettin' no 114 Beyer.

The Oaks was another wet track day .. so who really cares about the numbers from it anyway?

[slewis]

When you say "Rusty's filly" - who is a nice horse - I assume you mean One Caroline.

However, One Caroline didn't even win that race ... the absurd Miss Isella - with Calvin Borel up - beat her.

Miss Isella was beaten 10 lengths by One Caroline in her previous dirt start - and had a career top Beyer of 88 coming into the race... she's a 4yo making her 14th career start.

I agree with you that the no talent Miss Isella ran well to run down a loose on the lead slight cut-backing One Caroline .. but she ain't gettin' no 114 Beyer.

The Oaks was another wet track day .. so who really cares about the numbers from it anyway?

My Mistake regarding the trainer... thanks for pointing it out....

As far as the numbers go... I care.... It's part of the way I handicap... It's a process that I go through. Figures are only 25-20% of my handicapping.

I know you could care less.. but thats what I do.. So figures are very important to me.

If they are meaningless for you or others... Everyone needs to find what works for them.....

I dont knnow exactly what you're point is regarding MISS ISELLA.

[slewis]

Who cares about speed figures on wet track days? It was a very odd track that day that some horses just didn't handle - Slew's Tiznow looked like he was on ice skates for example.

When weather and the footing are like that - it's a whole different animal.

Friesan Fire winning the La Derby in identical final time as Rachel Alexandra on the same card - doesn't mean he ran as well from an analytical standpoint.

The pace in RA's race was faster - a pace in which she set - and her trainer Hal Wiggins was 0-for-35 with horses 2nd off of a layoff coming into that race. Her margin of victory over Flying Spur was less than two lengths that day.

In his start prior to the La Derby - Friesan Fire won the Risen Star stakes in final time of 1:45.11 .. the 3yo filly War Echo won the Silverbulletday in 1:45.20 just one race earlier on the same card.

Two starts prior to the La Derby - Friesan Fire won the Lecomte in 1:37.67 - one race earlier, Just Jenda won the Tiffany Lass in 1:38.15

Just Jenda is a moderate horse who's run 6 consecutive Beyers in the 80's .. running 0.48 seconds faster than her is no great achievement.


And I just used you're precise arguement with RA on oaks day compared to MIss ISELLA's race.... again what's you're point?

If you want to bet RA in the Preakness or Belmont or wherever... go ahead.

Someone on this forum posted she's 10 Lengths faster than POTN....

Until horses run against each other... everyone can speculate all day...

[JPinMaryland]

Relwob: Watched the derby again, POTN bears out a bit w/ a hundred yards to go and comes close to the pair of Clem and MM. He obviously had a clear shot at Mine that Bird prior to that but couldnt must anything, he bore inward in mid stretch so I guess the track didnt help him much...

Trip notes say "drifted out under urging bumping Papa Clem..." So I guess he did contact him. He was bearing in and out in the stretch so I would think a better track would improve his beyer.

[slewis]

Relwob: Watched the derby again, POTN bears out a bit w/ a hundred yards to go and comes close to the pair of Clem and MM. He obviously had a clear shot at Mine that Bird prior to that but couldnt must anything, he bore inward in mid stretch so I guess the track didnt help him much...

Trip notes say "drifted out under urging bumping Papa Clem..." So I guess he did contact him. He was bearing in and out in the stretch so I would think a better track would improve his beyer.

Maybe you should watch again......

POTN drifts out and BUMPS Papa Clem into MM..knocking both off stride.

He should have been DQ'd and placed 4th.

[DrugS]

again what's you're point?

My point was that this ...

BTW.. If you think Friesan Fire is not a good horse.. I guess you're not impressed by Rachel A because they ran bang up races on the same card.

is a very silly comment.


It's every bit as dumb as saying...

"If you think Papa Clem is a good horse .. I guess you must be REALLY impressed with Flying Spur because she ran more than 5 lengths faster than him on the same card that day.'

[dav4463]

Say what you want, but most of the time the horses with higher Beyer figures win races day in and day out. Sometimes a horse jumps up and improves greatly like in the Derby.

Sometimes lower fig horses do win, but they generally show past figures that are capable of winning today or at least being in the mix. Some high Beyer horses get in races where they don't fit the running style today and they run poorly.

3 year olds are less reliable Beyer-wise than the older horses and 2 year olds are even less reliable. Still even in Maiden races where the horses only ran a few times; you can generally throw out the Zero Beyer horses and consider those that at least got a number and are showing signs of improvement.

Beyer figures are a useful tool for me and I'm sure there are many others who use them in different ways, but most won't say so because they get ridiculed.

[fmolf]

Say what you want, but most of the time the horses with higher Beyer figures win races day in and day out. Sometimes a horse jumps up and improves greatly like in the Derby.

Sometimes lower fig horses do win, but they generally show past figures that are capable of winning today or at least being in the mix. Some high Beyer horses get in races where they don't fit the running style today and they run poorly.

3 year olds are less reliable Beyer-wise than the older horses and 2 year olds are even less reliable. Still even in Maiden races where the horses only ran a few times; you can generally throw out the Zero Beyer horses and consider those that at least got a number and are showing signs of improvement.

Beyer figures are a useful tool for me and I'm sure there are many others who use them in different ways, but most won't say so because they get ridiculed.i find the bris speed and pace numbers very useful as well as the beyers...top beyer horse no handicapping at all wins about 30% of all races...
they are very good and useful in discerning which horses can run at which level...beyers and other figures are just guides for me...their is no difference as far as i am concerned with beyers from say a 65 or a 62....these are basically equal horses......a lot of times i use speed figs to help me decide if a favorite is vulnerable!

[Smarty Cide]

here is why i dont understand beyers and why people follow them:

West Side Bernie had a 107 in the wood memorial - has he finished the kentucky derby yet?

Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby ran a 93 then came back in the Ill. Derby and ran a 104 - so why cant PON make a jump up and win the Preakness? People say he isnt fast enough...

Mine That Bird ran a 88 in the sun derby 87 in the race before that then won the derby.

Atomic Rain ran a 103 in the Wood - 'nuff said

Dunkirk ran over 100 twice - i think he is just coming around the far turn in the derby now...

Pioneerof The Nile - has run consistent mid 90's but he has raced in a few races with a slow pace.



so basically there is no consistency here. I just dont get why there is so much stock thrown into the beyers. they always seem to change and are all over the place...

I havent seen the beyers from the derby - are they out there?

[GaryG]

i find the bris speed and pace numbers very useful as well as the beyers!IMO the BRIS speed numbers are decent but the pace numbers can be way off, especially on an off track. Much better to make your own, then you know from whence they came.

[Tom]

Don't blame Beyer - its the horses who are all over the place.

[DrugS]

here is why i dont understand beyers and why people follow them:

West Side Bernie had a 107 in the wood memorial

Guess again.


Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby ran a 93 then came back in the Ill. Derby and ran a 104 -

Wrong and Wrong.

Mine That Bird ran a 88 in the sun derby 87 in the race before that then won the derby.

Wow. You're batting 0-for-5 so far.


Atomic Rain ran a 103 in the Wood - 'nuff said

0-for-6 - 'nuff said.


I havent seen the beyers from the derby - are they out there?

It would appear as though you haven't seen them for A LOT of races.

[DrugS]

Don't blame Beyer - its the horses who are all over the place.

Exactly.

Every single competent figure maker around had Mine That Bird's numbers slower than hell.

That's kind of what happens when you 4th in the Sunland Derby and 2nd in the Borderlands Derby in your only two starts at age 3.

Heck... Gabby's Golden Girl ran faster on the same card and same day.

[Relwob Owner]

here is why i dont understand beyers and why people follow them:

West Side Bernie had a 107 in the wood memorial - has he finished the kentucky derby yet?

Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby ran a 93 then came back in the Ill. Derby and ran a 104 - so why cant PON make a jump up and win the Preakness? People say he isnt fast enough...

Mine That Bird ran a 88 in the sun derby 87 in the race before that then won the derby.

Atomic Rain ran a 103 in the Wood - 'nuff said

Dunkirk ran over 100 twice - i think he is just coming around the far turn in the derby now...

Pioneerof The Nile - has run consistent mid 90's but he has raced in a few races with a slow pace.



so basically there is no consistency here. I just dont get why there is so much stock thrown into the beyers. they always seem to change and are all over the place...

I havent seen the beyers from the derby - are they out there?


Check your Beyer numbers that you cited for horses for before the Derby....I dont think they are accurate....the ones on WSB, MTB and Atomic Rain look ioncorrect...just going by memory...

[Relwob Owner]

Maybe you should watch again......

POTN drifts out and BUMPS Papa Clem into MM..knocking both off stride.

He should have been DQ'd and placed 4th.


Couldnt agree more.....I, for one, think the "let em play" philosphy that exists "because it is sucha big race" is a bunch of garbage.....since there is so much money on the line for everyone, they should look just as hard at the Derby as a 4K claimer.....ridiculous IMHO....gary Stute had a chance to step up and complain and he just reinforced the "let em play" garbage....

[ezrabrooks]

Smarty Cide..I think you are confusing other published numbers with Beyers. I guess it is easier for some to bash, then just to point that out.

Ez

[DrugS]

It's ok to bash the Beyers ... but anyone special enough to go by the handle Smarty Cide obviously ought to be off limits. My bad

[Smarty Cide]

Guess again.




Wrong and Wrong.



Wow. You're batting 0-for-5 so far.




0-for-6 - 'nuff said.




It would appear as though you haven't seen them for A LOT of races.

well im looking at the pp's on brisnet right now.. so maybe your on drugS

[Bruddah]

When I opened this thread, I never expected to get this many responses. I am truly shocked :eek:

I have been using Beyers numbers since 1992. After reading this thread, I think, I must be the only Hadicapper using them as they were intended. Strictly as a gauge as to how the horse ran and as an indicator of ability . Also, where the horse may be in its' form cycle. Those of you who want an accurate # of pace and speed should become clients of Cj. I happen to think he makes the best #. However, my db was started with Beyer's numbers. They have been free and Universally available all these years. The way I use them, I find them to be very indicative for older horses. As far as 3yo's, I find them useful in looking at a horses form cycle. However, when it comes to 3yo's they are less indicative because these young horses are maturing daily, weekly and race to race.

I try to use a tool as it was intended. It's hard to use a hammer as a screw driver. You know the old saying about a poor carpenter blaming his tools. (JMHO)

[GaryG]

It's ok to bash the Beyers ... but anyone special enough to go by the handle Smarty Cide obviously ought to be off limits. My badI think he got this one from the PA witness protection program. You still got that gig at PID?

[Dahoss9698]

well im looking at the pp's on brisnet right now.. so maybe your on drugS

Ummm,those aren't Beyers. Those are brisnet's pace numbers. Not Beyers, there is a difference.

[Tee]

The numbers quoted are brisnet speed figures.


Ummm,those aren't Beyers. Those are brisnet's pace numbers. Not Beyers, there is a difference.

[Tom]

This thread is killing me! :lol::lol::lol:

[Dahoss9698]

The numbers quoted are brisnet speed figures.

Isn't that what I said? Smarty Cide was saying he didn't undestand the Beyer numbers and was using the Bis figures as though they are Beyers. They aren't.

[PaceAdvantage]

Isn't that what I said?No, you said Brisnet pace numbers.

[Tee]

Isn't that what I said?
No, you said Those are brisnet's pace numbers. This could be even more confusing to Smarty Cide & others.

Of course brisnet numbers aren't Beyer speed figures as BSF's are DRF exclusive.

[Dahoss9698]

I stand corrected. I meant to say speed numbers. Doesn't really change that he is using Bris and confusing them as Beyers though does it?

[Bruddah]

This thread is killing me! :lol::lol::lol:

Tom, I feel like Gene Wilder playing young Dr. Frankenstein, or is that Fraunk-in-steene. Either way, I have created a monster. I expect to come back to this thread and see Peter Boyle in Top hat and cane dancing across my screen.

Where is Frau Bloocher (horses whinny) when you need her. :lol:

[Tom]

Tom, I feel like Gene Wilder playing young Dr. Frankenstein, or is that Fraunk-in-steene. Either way, I have created a monster. I expect to come back to this thread and see Peter Boyle in Top hat and cane dancing across my screen.

Where is Frau Bloocher (horses whinny) when you need her. :lol:

Pete was busy.....

[fmolf]

Pete was busy.....
who's on first?

[The Hawk]

here is why i dont understand beyers and why people follow them:

West Side Bernie had a 107 in the wood memorial - has he finished the kentucky derby yet?

Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby ran a 93 then came back in the Ill. Derby and ran a 104 - so why cant PON make a jump up and win the Preakness? People say he isnt fast enough...

Mine That Bird ran a 88 in the sun derby 87 in the race before that then won the derby.

Atomic Rain ran a 103 in the Wood - 'nuff said

Dunkirk ran over 100 twice - i think he is just coming around the far turn in the derby now...

Pioneerof The Nile - has run consistent mid 90's but he has raced in a few races with a slow pace.



so basically there is no consistency here. I just dont get why there is so much stock thrown into the beyers. they always seem to change and are all over the place...

I havent seen the beyers from the derby - are they out there?

Think of baseball. The best player in the game could go 4-4 witha pair of home runs one day, and then 0-for-5 with 2 strikeouts the next. They're not machines. Neither are horses.

[toussaud]

how did WSB get a 107 in the wood when I wnat revenge got a 103? I think WSB got a 97.


musket man ran a 98 in the illinois derby not a 104


again, IWR won with a 103. HOw did atomic rain get a 103?

dunkirk only ran over 100 once, the florida derby. his first run maiden was a 77, his 2nd was a 98 and his third was 108 which was a 98 but was later adjusted

[cj]

how did WSB get a 107 in the wood when I wnat revenge got a 103? I think WSB got a 97.


musket man ran a 98 in the illinois derby not a 104


again, IWR won with a 103. HOw did atomic rain get a 103?

dunkirk only ran over 100 once, the florida derby. his first run maiden was a 77, his 2nd was a 98 and his third was 108 which was a 98 but was later adjusted

It was made pretty clear in the thread he was mistakenly talking about BRIS speed figures.

[sammy the sage]

IWR....jumped 15 pts+...when moved to fast dry dirt...

perhap's 1/3 other's can/could as well...

I'm just say'n ;)

[classhandicapper]

As far as the numbers go... I care.... It's part of the way I handicap... It's a process that I go through. Figures are only 25-20% of my handicapping.

I know you could care less.. but thats what I do.. So figures are very important to me.

If they are meaningless for you or others... Everyone needs to find what works for them.....


I'd be curious to know what figures you gave to the Derby, Florida Derby and any other sigfificant races that you diasgree with strongly. (beyer scale)

[philcski]

Then I guess Dont forget Gils race in the FL oaks puts her ahead of Join inthe dance, General Quarters and Musket Man..... CJ, Please.. there is much more to making figures then what you're suggesting here.. and we BOTH know this.

Rachel has proven she can dominate Fillies, but against colts, ON THE DIRT.. it's a much more difficult task.

I disagree with Beyers assessment of the KY Oaks and KY Derby....

There was an GR2 F&M race 2 or so prior to the KY Oaks and that race went every BIT (incl. the splits) as fast as RA's.... While Rusty's filly is a nice horse, she didn't run a 114....Unless Beyer is going to fudge that one as well.. (which is possible).

Disagree... was about 4 lengths slower. The offset between 8.5 and 9F at CD is about 6.7 seconds. Miss Isella's "equivalent" 9F time would have been 1:49.45. She should have gotten about a 101 (she got a 96 which is too low.)

[slewis]

Disagree... was about 4 lengths slower. The offset between 8.5 and 9F at CD is about 6.7 seconds. Miss Isella's "equivalent" 9F time would have been 1:49.45. She should have gotten about a 101 (she got a 96 which is too low.)


Phil,

Thank you for disagreeing.... The offset time then needs to be adjusted for a track variant.....

I will be more precise then my posted statement and say the splits were reasonably close.. Let's put it like this:
Miss Isella (I actually have a figure equivelent to 2 L slower then RA's OAKS) ran a very good race. I wouldn't dream in a million years the trainer is looking to take on colts off her performance performance.....

Jess Jackson is. RA is going to have to run HARDER to compete with the boys.
Can she? We will see... She is Very VERY good... but some on here stated she's as much as 10 lengths faster then the boys.......

Ouch...

[cj]

Can she? We will see... She is Very VERY good... but some on here stated she's as much as 10 lengths faster then the boys.......

Ouch...

Beyer certainly didn't make his figures that way. I don't see her being that much better than the boys, and the pace could do her in.

[DrugS]

Of the ones I've seen ... Beyer has Rachel Alexandra running 7.25 lengths faster than Miss Isella. Thoro-Graph has RA running 8 lengths faster.

That was a funky wet race track that day anyway ... and certainly not an easy day to make figs for.

[philcski]

Of the ones I've seen ... Beyer has Rachel Alexandra running 7.25 lengths faster than Miss Isella. Thoro-Graph has RA running 8 lengths faster.

That was a funky wet race track that day anyway ... and certainly not an easy day to make figs for.

It was drying out all day, yes... but the fact is the figures from that day are bogus. The Alysheba was run an hour and 45 minutes after the Louisville and was 1.54 seconds slower but got a Beyer figure only 1 point lower. Yeah, OK. That makes a ton of sense. There was nothing to prove or disprove the track 'slowed down' that significantly between those two races.

Beyers these days are a total farce as far as I'm concerned. If I don't have my own I use brisnet.

[cj]

It was drying out all day, yes... but the fact is the figures from that day are bogus. The Alysheba was run an hour and 45 minutes after the Louisville and was 1.54 seconds slower but got a Beyer figure only 1 point lower. Yeah, OK. That makes a ton of sense. There was nothing to prove or disprove the track 'slowed down' that significantly between those two races.

Beyers these days are a total farce as far as I'm concerned. If I don't have my own I use brisnet.

When races are run that far apart over a track that is changing quickly, I would much rather use the horses in the race than those run over a very different track. It is obviously a tough spot for the figure maker, but the horses as a group, are more consistent than the track in that situation.

To simplify the above, if the final time makes little sense in relation to other races when factors such as trips and pace are considered, you are better off trusting the history of the horses in the long run.

[JPinMaryland]

Maybe you should watch again......

POTN drifts out and BUMPS Papa Clem into MM..knocking both off stride.

He should have been DQ'd and placed 4th.

I think you are missing my pt. I made no comment on whether he should be dq'd or not. My comment was in relation to the track and whether he might improve on a better track. He seemed to bear in as well as bear out at different times in the stretch which I assume had somethign to do with the muddy track, hence I believe a better surface might help improve his time and/or beyer figure. That is all I'm saying.

Furthermore, just because a horse should be DQ'd doesnt preclude the incident from hurting his own time..

[toussaud]

POTN has now ran on three different surfaces.. turf, fake, and gew. through all that, he's (remarkbly actually) consistant. he's a mid high 80 to low to mid 90 beyer speed figure horse.

If he is to improve, that means that he is to like a fast dirt track better thean gew, fake, and turf. I don't find that very likely. and it's looking like it's going to rain anyway.

[rastajenk]

Gew?

:D

[philcski]

When races are run that far apart over a track that is changing quickly, I would much rather use the horses in the race than those run over a very different track. It is obviously a tough spot for the figure maker, but the horses as a group, are more consistent than the track in that situation.

To simplify the above, if the final time makes little sense in relation to other races when factors such as trips and pace are considered, you are better off trusting the history of the horses in the long run.

I disagree here, the liberties taken on making the Beyer figures have rendered them useless. I ran the numbers again from that day to see if I was missing something, and there is absolutely no way to justify making the Louisville Distaff a 96 and the Alysheba a 95. Miss Isella ran out of her skin, and the slow pace of the Alysheba caused a slower than expected time. That is up to the handicapper to determine, not for the figure maker to retrofit to make the numbers look good. If you want to say the track slowed down significantly between those two races, then how can the Oaks and the last race of the day be explained? RA would have been a 114 in that case.

Anecdotal note, I was on track, on the rail, and while the track was certainly off early in the day by that point the conditions had stabilized and was virtually a "fast" track by the 5th or 6th race.

[LemonSoupKid]

Phil,

As far as your noting that the track was faster later in the day, I totally agree. When I was watching the Oaks, I kept a keen eye on it. It seemed pretty fast to me. Then on Derby Day I said, "This is not even close to what it was yesterday" --- and obviously so. Thanks for verifying.

I think it's better for you to say that the liberties taken with BSF recently can make the useless. And I agree. I have said on here and other places that this year, it's tough to trust the Beyers at all.

Toussaud,

If he is going to move forward, isn't a fast dirt track going to make him "faster." I can't imagine that anything else that would move him up. If anything is, it'll be that. If it's fast, that's exactly what you'll see, in fact.

The most interesting thing for me to watch will be Big Drama near the front end ... and who is near him or vice versa.

[cj]

I disagree here, the liberties taken on making the Beyer figures have rendered them useless. I ran the numbers again from that day to see if I was missing something, and there is absolutely no way to justify making the Louisville Distaff a 96 and the Alysheba a 95. Miss Isella ran out of her skin, and the slow pace of the Alysheba caused a slower than expected time. That is up to the handicapper to determine, not for the figure maker to retrofit to make the numbers look good. If you want to say the track slowed down significantly between those two races, then how can the Oaks and the last race of the day be explained? RA would have been a 114 in that case.

Anecdotal note, I was on track, on the rail, and while the track was certainly off early in the day by that point the conditions had stabilized and was virtually a "fast" track by the 5th or 6th race.

I was in no way saying the Beyers are right in this case. I said I do take pace and trips into account as to why horses may have run much faster or slower than expected. However, I make pace and speed figures for every track, every day and there are just many, many case where you totally break a middle of the card race out or you make a lot of bad bets on horses in the future. Anyone that thinks every time is accurate and makes figures that way is asking for big, big trouble.

I know you realize this. There are many "fiddled with" Beyers that are changed when even a little homework would tell the figure maker what he needed to know. But there are plenty where there is no logical explanation, and following up the horses into the future usually indicates in these cases you are better off not trusting the clock.

[Tom]

Knowing what races are out of whack can be a good thing.
Until CJ came along, I made my own pace figs off of the Beyers from the Winner's Books.

First step was to see how each race varianted (is that a word?). When a race stuck out as different, I logged it in as one to watch. I also calculated what it should be based on the other races. When a horse come out of that race, I had to decide what fig to use. Rule of thumb was to penalize favorites and give the benefit of the doubt to price horses. This was not a rare occurrence.

Knowing what your numbers can't do is just as important as knowing what they can do.

[Bill Cullen]

It's funny ... I used to think Watchmaker was fun and interesting to listen to, until ... I saw that not a single one of his predictions or insights into what has happened or will happened ever led to the selection of a winner on any sort of big stage.

He's a guy that makes you think he knows by the way he analyzes, but ultimately fails because he can't synthesize the information properly. For him, 1+2 always comes out as 4.

And the end product, unfortunately, is all that matters in this game. The winners.

I think Watchmaker has some real insights but he's often encapsulated in a single line or so which, editorially, he might not have that much control over.

Bill C

[LemonSoupKid]

So who has the most room to improve this Saturday, cj?

LSKid

[nobeyerspls]

I tried to think of something worthwhile to add to this thread and all I can come up with is that it might make sense to adjust the figures for gender, i.e. discount the number for fillies and mares. I watched more than a few races where a filly towered over the colts figure-wise and ended up off the board.
When the beyers first came out they were equal for all tracks and then, when horses from cheaper tracks underperformed at quality venues, the figures became track-adjusted.
Just a thought.