Missed the boat...again!

[strapper]

With the advantage of hindsight the best bet of the weekend would've been to simply wheel Rachel Alexandra in the Oaks with the entire field of the Derby. The $40 investment would've brought back $248 - the easiest $200 you would've ever made. Why didn't I think of this Friday? The Derby looked so wide open you almost had to feel a longshot would take the roses. :confused:

[cj's dad]

Hindsight is in fact 20/20 - and actually, considering the payout, I'm sure that many did just what you (and I) failed to do !!

[CBedo]

Hindsight is great, but it's hard to wheel her in the face of a potential 12 dollar payout or whatever it was to I Want Revenge.

[cj's dad]

Hindsight is great, but it's hard to wheel her in the face of a potential 12 dollar payout or whatever it was to I Want Revenge.

Your right about the $12 payout with IWR, but when are we (I) going to learn that this race is just not won by favorites that often ?

[dartman51]

Your right about the $12 payout with IWR, but when are we (I) going to learn that this race is just not won by favorites that often ?

Be careful, I made that comment BEFORE the DERBY, and got throughly chastised for it. But I do agree with you.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I thought about it while I was at work Friday but it was too late by the time I got home.So I just watched my derby bet go up in flames Saturday instead!!!

Oh well.

[point given]

actually i was looking at hitting the all button with einstein and courts vision in the turf race preceding it but wouldnot single the 1 horse in the race after the derby and he won. Not pulling the trigger cost $500. I think the 19 horse field dissuaded me from using the all. as i had no horse i liked in it and saw a chaos type race. didnot want to play the double as a short pay could result as mentioned

[dav4463]

I've never worked out results on paper, but the Oaks/Derby double where you play the favorite over all got me thinking.

What if you play exactas with two key horses on top and four other horses that you like for second. If you play 12 w 123456, it costs $20 per race.

That means sometimes you may lose money if an exacta pays less than $20. But, if you play only the higher paying combos...will you win more money?

The argument is on an exacta that pays only $18, you will lose $2.....but if you only pay higher paying combos....then you might bet only $14 but lose it all.

If you had played the $20, you would at least get $18 back and lose only $2, with more money left for the next bet.



Let's do this assuming that you are showing a profit on the $20 per race plays.

[ryesteve]

What if you play exactas with two key horses on top and four other horses that you like for second. If you play 12 w 123456, it costs $20 per race.

That means sometimes you may lose money if an exacta pays less than $20. But, if you play only the higher paying combos...will you win more money?My experience is that if you're somehow able to show a profit using the horse you think is 6th best, you're probably not doing a good job of ranking the field. My approach is to use fewer combinations by only betting those races where I don't have to go 6 deep to get horses I like that will pay off decently.

[ranchwest]

I've never worked out results on paper, but the Oaks/Derby double where you play the favorite over all got me thinking.

What if you play exactas with two key horses on top and four other horses that you like for second. If you play 12 w 123456, it costs $20 per race.

That means sometimes you may lose money if an exacta pays less than $20. But, if you play only the higher paying combos...will you win more money?

The argument is on an exacta that pays only $18, you will lose $2.....but if you only pay higher paying combos....then you might bet only $14 but lose it all.

If you had played the $20, you would at least get $18 back and lose only $2, with more money left for the next bet.



Let's do this assuming that you are showing a profit on the $20 per race plays.

That's similar to what I did for the Derby. Unfortunately, all of my horses are rounding that last turn right about now. (and I often do well on the Derby -- I've never been this wrong before)

[dav4463]

My experience is that if you're somehow able to show a profit using the horse you think is 6th best, you're probably not doing a good job of ranking the field. My approach is to use fewer combinations by only betting those races where I don't have to go 6 deep to get horses I like that will pay off decently.


The one that is #6 rarely comes in, but when it does it pays big $$$. If it pays $400 when it hits, and your records show that it does occasionally hit, then it is worth the extra few dollars to include in an exacta I would think. You can miss 199 times with the horse and still show a profit.