Casey Lambert having a bad week......

[JustRalph]

The last Jock on Mine that Bird at Sunland is getting ripped like none I have heard before.

Beyer ripped his bad ride in his column today and several others are talking about how he moved too early in the Sunland Derby...........

Yet......Chantal Sutherland looks pretty decent on him at Woodbine........

Funny how things turn out...........Casey Lambert is having a bad week...........

Btw, Steve Byk had a writer on his show Monday night who tossed out the Stakes Numbers for Calvin Borel at CDX over the last five years, I believe.

He had won like 50% and ITM over 65% and most of the horses had run new tops in all the winning races............ amazing stuff.........

Download it and listen to it if you can. Monday nights show.......

[ezrabrooks]

I notice Beyer is looking at the Sunland races after the Derby. I would have thought a great handicaper like Beyer would have taken a peek before last Sat, instead of following his numbers blindly. Casey Lambert may have moved to early...but he knows the Sunland strip better than Beyer.

Ez

[Jinxed]

:lol: someone is trying to get out of lousy derby picks. Why don't we turn it on a jockey at Sunland. That sounds right to me in the mind of "the genius"

[Relwob Owner]

I notice Beyer is looking at the Sunland races after the Derby. I would have thought a great handicaper like Beyer would have taken a peek before last Sat, instead of following his numbers blindly. Casey Lambert may have moved to early...but he knows the Sunland strip better than Beyer.

Ez


I have been a Beyer guy for many years....however how he traces something back to Lambert doesnt make much sense....how does he know that he wasnt following the instructions of the trainer?????? MTB as so far back Saturday mainly because of trouble out of the gate so who knows if on Saturday, they didnt "luck in" to his new running style?

[fmolf]

I notice Beyer is looking at the Sunland races after the Derby. I would have thought a great handicaper like Beyer would have taken a peek before last Sat, instead of following his numbers blindly. Casey Lambert may have moved to early...but he knows the Sunland strip better than Beyer.

Ez
we do not know if he was under the trainers orders either.. he was always forwardly placed in canada when racing for cotey as well with sutherland aboard

[DrugS]

Btw, Steve Byk had a writer on his show Monday night who tossed out the Stakes Numbers for Calvin Borel at CDX over the last five years, I believe.

He had won like 50% and ITM over 65% and most of the horses had run new tops in all the winning races............ amazing stuff.........

Download it and listen to it if you can. Monday nights show.......

That was me.

Here's more on the stat:


While not included in the stat ... the real magic started in the final month of the '03 Churchill Downs meet.

Nov 8th 2003: Borel guides Lead Story to a 36/1 shot last-to-first upset of Awesome Humor in the Gr 2 Churchill Downs Distaff handicap.

Closing weekend of Churchill '03: Lead Story wins the Falls City Handicap by 6.5 lengths with an insane 107 Beyer and pays $22.20

Ok ... now the magical stat: In two-turn Churchill Dirt route Graded Stakes since '04 Borel is 22-12-2-4 - winning at 55% with the avg winner paying $39.60 and more than half of his 22 mounts running new lifetime top speed figures. Some of them big ones.

Here are the 12 winners in no particular order:

$32.40 (Street Sense)

$11.80 (Street Sense)

$19.40 (Miss Isella)

$32.60 (Miss Isella)

$17.60 (Kettleoneup)

$8.20 (Rachel Alexandra)

$2.60 (Rachel Alexandra)

$103.20 (Mine That Bird)

$185.40 (Seek Gold)

$14.00 (Beethoven)

$22.00 (Lead Story '04 Louisville Handicap)

$25.60 (Fiery Pursuit)


Not only do they all seem to explode figure wise - but almost all of them make these crazy rail moves at about the 3/8ths and some win by huge margins.

[ezrabrooks]

Wow!! That is amazing..


Ez

[Relwob Owner]

That was me.

Here's more on the stat:


While not included in the stat ... the real magic started in the final month of the '03 Churchill Downs meet.

Nov 8th 2003: Borel guides Lead Story to a 36/1 shot last-to-first upset of Awesome Humor in the Gr 2 Churchill Downs Distaff handicap.

Closing weekend of Churchill '03: Lead Story wins the Falls City Handicap by 6.5 lengths with an insane 107 Beyer and pays $22.20

Ok ... now the magical stat: In two-turn Churchill Dirt route Graded Stakes since '04 Borel is 22-12-2-4 - winning at 55% with the avg winner paying $39.60 and more than half of his 22 mounts running new lifetime top speed figures. Some of them big ones.

Here are the 12 winners in no particular order:

$32.40 (Street Sense)

$11.80 (Street Sense)

$19.40 (Miss Isella)

$32.60 (Miss Isella)

$17.60 (Kettleoneup)

$8.20 (Rachel Alexandra)

$2.60 (Rachel Alexandra)

$103.20 (Mine That Bird)

$185.40 (Seek Gold)

$14.00 (Beethoven)

$22.00 (Lead Story '04 Louisville Handicap)

$25.60 (Fiery Pursuit)


Not only do they all seem to explode figure wise - but almost all of them make these crazy rail moves at about the 3/8ths and some win by huge margins.



That is amazing.....question, because I dont know much at all about KY circuit....why doesnt Borel get rides with more high profile outfits? Seems like he is constantly on longshots, but from your stats, he obviously does well!

[Dahoss9698]

That was me.



I can't believe JustRalph called you a writer.

[DrugS]

I am no Joe Drape .. that much is true.

[cj]

.. he was always forwardly placed in canada when racing for cotey as well with sutherland aboard

What exactly is forwardly placed? He was 4 or 5th winning 4 straight races, all in 6 horse fields. All of those races featured average to slow pace set ups.

[slotterhaus]

He's perfected it at CD but it goes way back. First time I can remember was the '91 Super Derby with Free Spirit's Joy @ 28-1; on the fence virtually the whole trip while Olympio and Best Pal floundered wide. Then there was the redoubtable Rockamundo @ 108-1 in the '93 Ark Derby. Got to the front, went to the rail and stayed right there. Rock's previous Beyer top was 78, that day he would receive a 103.

[fmolf]

What exactly is forwardly placed? He was 4 or 5th winning 4 straight races, all in 6 horse fields. All of those races featured average to slow pace set ups.
he's only 2-2,1/2 lengths off the lead in each race..thats not forwardly placed?

[BombsAway Bob]

with stakes numbers like that it's a good thing Calvin's not a trainer...
the 'Negative Nellys' would be accusing him of using "magic elixirs" too!

[redshift1]

That is amazing.....question, because I dont know much at all about KY circuit....why doesnt Borel get rides with more high profile outfits? Seems like he is constantly on longshots, but from your stats, he obviously does well!

Maybe if he waited until after the race to celebrate he would get more good mounts, pre-finish histrionics are unprofessional and will someday cost him a race which is exactly why he rides a lot of long-shots.

[Bruddah]

That is amazing.....question, because I dont know much at all about KY circuit....why doesnt Borel get rides with more high profile outfits? Seems like he is constantly on longshots, but from your stats, he obviously does well!

Simple answer, Calvin is not as photogenic or polished as a Jerry Bailey or Pat Day. Calvin is who he is and unapologetic for it. Who is he? He is an excellent race rider with a limited education, Cajun accent and simple honesty in his emotions. Pletcher would do well to let some of Calvin rub off on him.

Here's to Calvin Bo-Rail :ThmbUp:

[JustRalph]

sorry if I insulted anybody... :lol: ..... I thought he said he was a writer?

I listen while doing other things............ but it was good stuff. he did a nice job on the ATR show...... :ThmbUp:

good stuff DrugS........... thanks!


Borel did a very matter of fact interview on the Tues show with Byk.......

Borel sounded good to me..........

[Bobzilla]

Calvin Borel is a guy who is hard not to like. It's clear that riding for him is a labor of love.

Calvin has used the rail-skimming-trip-from-way-back tactic three years in a row. We all remember the ride he gave Street Sense in 2007. Last year he employed the same maneuver onboard Denis of Cork who closed well to get third at 26/1. I always thought it was ironic that DOC owner Mr. Warren insisted on a rider switch for the Belmont, getting Albarado to replace Borel. Some might remember the way the Belmont surface played on Belmont day last year. From early on in the card it was obvious that the inside was the better part of the track. If one considers where Calvin might have been on that track as opposed to where Albarado had DOC for much of that race maybe DOC would have been more within striking distance of Da'Tara in the later stages. Then again maybe Calvin would have had him too far back, who knows?. I'm sure it seemed like the right decision at the time for DOC's connections given some of Albarado's past successes at Belmont. I do have to think, however, that Calvin's typical ground saving trips would have served the horse's chances better that day given the better going towards the inside, as long as Calvin didn't fall too far behind the Belmont pace that day.

As for Casey Lambert, I agree, this probably hasn't been a good week for him. His move on the backstretch of the Sundland Derby does seem, after the fact, premature, and might have hidden some of MTB's true form. I guess some are publicly bitter at him for this. I will say that Mike Smith's ride on the winner Kelly Leak didn't appear TOO much different as he wasn't that far behind MTB for much of the first 3/4. The latter did save considerable more ground around the first turn than MTB. Speaking of Kelly Leak (?), I read he was going to run in the Lone Star Derby but has since been put on the shelf because of an ulcer. Maybe he got the ulcer once he learned the results of the Derby.

[JustRalph]

Maybe he got the ulcer once he learned the results of the Derby.

Join the party............lots of them since Saturday night

[Relwob Owner]

[/B]

Simple answer, Calvin is not as photogenic or polished as a Jerry Bailey or Pat Day. Calvin is who he is and unapologetic for it. Who is he? He is an excellent race rider with a limited education, Cajun accent and simple honesty in his emotions. Pletcher would do well to let some of Calvin rub off on him.

Here's to Calvin Bo-Rail :ThmbUp:


good point and that is sort of what I think....dont know the ins and outs of KY racing but I imagine it is pretty cliquey(sp?)....good thing is that he should have no problem getting Derby mounts in the future:)

[GaryG]

good thing is that he should have no problem getting Derby mounts in the future:)He had a good one two years ago from a high profile barn.

[fmolf]

He had a good one two years ago from a high profile barn.
last time i looked at the national standings borel was in the top ten 20 nationwide...just going from memory i could be wrong...i think casey was probably under the trainers orders to chase the pace seems like that was how all mtb's previous races were run except for when he was outrun in the bc

[cj]

he's only 2-2,1/2 lengths off the lead in each race..thats not forwardly placed?

Not really in my opinion. The pace was slow and he comfortably waited behind those setting and forcing the pace.

[cj's dad]

Just yesterday, I saw the overhead shot from the Blimp (?) and the ride on MTB was eerily similar to the ride (as I remember it) on Street Sense. I wish someone had both to post (overheads that is) for comparison.

[fmolf]

Not really in my opinion. The pace was slow and he comfortably waited behind those setting and forcing the pace.
ok i can buy that but then he would be more of ane/p than an s type runner ...it will be interesting to see running style borel uses in the preakness...usually it is an off the pace runner that comes home to win..only one wire to wire wins in last 25 yrs..louis q...does he sit midpack or take back like in the derby?

[Quagmire]

Just yesterday, I saw the overhead shot from the Blimp (?) and the ride on MTB was eerily similar to the ride (as I remember it) on Street Sense. I wish someone had both to post (overheads that is) for comparison.

h21i17I4A58The overhead of Street Sense's move starts here at about the 2:56 mark.
.
.
.
loBnndmMNFIBorel knows what he's doing at CD.
.
.
.

[Relwob Owner]

He had a good one two years ago from a high profile barn.


I am aware of that....I was referring more to this year and the fact that he was on a 50 to 1 shot that before the race didnt look like he shot and was ignored when other more high profile mounts(Dunkirk?) were available....but heck, maybe he didnt want him....

[fmolf]

I am aware of that....I was referring more to this year and the fact that he was on a 50 to 1 shot that before the race didnt look like he shot and was ignored when other more high profile mounts(Dunkirk?) were available....but heck, maybe he didnt want him....
never thought of that....good point...would be interesting to know

[Dahoss9698]

I am aware of that....I was referring more to this year and the fact that he was on a 50 to 1 shot that before the race didnt look like he shot and was ignored when other more high profile mounts(Dunkirk?) were available....but heck, maybe he didnt want him....

I know you're just throwing it out there. But if given the choice before the race, do you really think Borel would pick Mine That Bird over Dunkirk?

[cj's dad]

for the videos !

after watching the overhaed of KD 135, I am convinced that POTN cost MM a 2nd place finish - POTN came out 2 paths and hit Papa Clem who that banged into MM who lost stride slightly and ended up losing 2nd by what ? a nose ?

[fmolf]

for the videos !

after watching the overhaed of KD 135, I am convinced that POTN cost MM a 2nd place finish - POTN came out 2 paths and hit Papa Clem who that banged into MM who lost stride slightly and ended up losing 2nd by what ? a nose ?
absolutely except i think it bothere papa clem more...i do not know why their was no inquiry they should have placed him 4th!

[fmolf]

I know you're just throwing it out there. But if given the choice before the race, do you really think Borel would pick Mine That Bird over Dunkirk?
no but maybe his agent is familiar with these fellows or is an excellent handicapper in his own right!

[Run Nicholas Run]

Maybe if he waited until after the race to celebrate he would get more good mounts, pre-finish histrionics are unprofessional and will someday cost him a race which is exactly why he rides a lot of long-shots.


CB single-handedly got Street Sense beat in the preakness,
thinking he had it won at the 1/8th pole.

[Quagmire]

CB single-handedly got Street Sense beat in the preakness,
thinking he had it won at the 1/8th pole.

How so?

[Relwob Owner]

I know you're just throwing it out there. But if given the choice before the race, do you really think Borel would pick Mine That Bird over Dunkirk?


Hey Dahoss,

My bad...I was unclear---I was saying maybe Pletcher and his connections didnt want Borel....sorry bout that. I think Borel would have definitely picked Dunkirk over MTB.....

[Relwob Owner]

absolutely except i think it bothere papa clem more...i do not know why their was no inquiry they should have placed him 4th!


Someday, someone will explain to me why everyone says that there will almost never be an objection or take down in the Derby because it is such a "big race"....heck, even Stute admitted it after the race....


By the way, I watched the Derby and the more I watch, the more I agree about your take on Bejerano.....on the backstretch, he could have been right on the rail but wasnt....that allowed Hold Me Back to go by him on the inside and when HMB quit, Bejerano then couldnt get back because HMB was falling back....ugh

[Quagmire]

Someday, someone will explain to me why everyone says that there will almost never be an objection or take down in the Derby because it is such a "big race"....heck, even Stute admitted it after the race....


By the way, I watched the Derby and the more I watch, the more I agree about your take on Bejerano.....on the backstretch, he could have been right on the rail but wasnt....that allowed Hold Me Back to go by him on the inside and when HMB quit, Bejerano then couldnt get back because HMB was falling back....ugh


Slewis explained why Coa didn't claim foul on another thread yesterday. If I recall correctly he said that Coa thought that PC caused the trouble.

I would also like to know why their was no stewards inquiry.

[Relwob Owner]

Slewis explained why Coa didn't claim foul on another thread yesterday. If I recall correctly he said that Coa thought that PC caused the trouble.

I would also like to know why their was no stewards inquiry.



I think I read his post, too....Bejerano I dont know about. The trainer saying they didnt claim foul(which I am almost positive he did) because it is the Derby is really disconcerting....I asked on another thread and PA said that it is kind of voewed as in the NBA playoff from a "let em play" angle.....If it is, I am not a big fan of it...

[boomman]

Calvin Borel is a guy who is hard not to like. It's clear that riding for him is a labor of love.

Calvin has used the rail-skimming-trip-from-way-back tactic three years in a row. We all remember the ride he gave Street Sense in 2007. Last year he employed the same maneuver onboard Denis of Cork who closed well to get third at 26/1. I always thought it was ironic that DOC owner Mr. Warren insisted on a rider switch for the Belmont, getting Albarado to replace Borel. Some might remember the way the Belmont surface played on Belmont day last year. From early on in the card it was obvious that the inside was the better part of the track. If one considers where Calvin might have been on that track as opposed to where Albarado had DOC for much of that race maybe DOC would have been more within striking distance of Da'Tara in the later stages. Then again maybe Calvin would have had him too far back, who knows?. I'm sure it seemed like the right decision at the time for DOC's connections given some of Albarado's past successes at Belmont. I do have to think, however, that Calvin's typical ground saving trips would have served the horse's chances better that day given the better going towards the inside, as long as Calvin didn't fall too far behind the Belmont pace that day.

As for Casey Lambert, I agree, this probably hasn't been a good week for him. His move on the backstretch of the Sundland Derby does seem, after the fact, premature, and might have hidden some of MTB's true form. I guess some are publicly bitter at him for this. I will say that Mike Smith's ride on the winner Kelly Leak didn't appear TOO much different as he wasn't that far behind MTB for much of the first 3/4. The latter did save considerable more ground around the first turn than MTB. Speaking of Kelly Leak (?), I read he was going to run in the Lone Star Derby but has since been put on the shelf because of an ulcer. Maybe he got the ulcer once he learned the results of the Derby.

For those of us who have watched all 3 of these men ride extensively over the past many years (especially Casey Lambert in my days in New Mexico) Calvin Borel is light years ahead of Lambert, and Albarado seems to go wide on everything. Did adding Borel to the mix step up this horse's chances?

1000%!!! A fantastic ride!

Boomer

[Bobzilla]

For those of us who have watched all 3 of these men ride extensively over the past many years (especially Casey Lambert in my days in New Mexico) Calvin Borel is light years ahead of Lambert, and Albarado seems to go wide on everything. Did adding Borel to the mix step up this horse's chances?

1000%!!! A fantastic ride!

Boomer


I have to admit I'm not familiar with Lambert at all but as far as your take on Albarado and Borel is concerned I couldn't agree more. Calvin was a huge part of this fun story. Last year owner William Warren wanted Albarado for Denis of Cork in the Belmont even after Borel gave DOC an identical ride to that of Street Sense the previous year. I believe hired experts advised him to request the rider switch. Since last June I've wondered at times how much of that 5 1/4 lengths behind Da'Tara Denis could have chewed into if Warren hadn't insisted on the change to who he thought was a superior rider in Albarado. At least Calvin would have been on the better part of the Big Sandy that day which was on the inside the entire day. I can still remember Bennie the Bull life and death coming down the middle of the track to just get up on animals to his inside who were at least ten to fifteen speed points inferior. As for Albarado I've noticed his tendency to go wide, even when it's not necessary, as well.

[DrugS]

Casey Lambert is 248-for-1799 with a $1.34 ROI at Sunland this decade.

He was just a 7% jock with a $1.36 ROI at this years Sunland Park meet.

If you lose more than double the takeout at Sunland Park ..

[pandy]

Wow, great post. I wonder how many of these races he won on the rail.

[ezrabrooks]

So, being a 7% jock at Sun last season is the basis for the claim that he gave MTB bad rides in his two starts at Sun...and is the cause for the 2nd and 4th placings? Is that where this stat is taking us? Is so, ole Sam was right. Although I am going from memory, I think Lambert was over a 15% jock for the year 2008. He is a capable rider for that circuit, no matter who wants to throw him under the bus, trying to backfit a Derby winner.

Ez

[Sunday.Silence]

how come Beyer isnt Blaming Wooley for MTB Sunlands races , a trainer who was 1-34 .....talk about the ultimate REDBOARDING....WOW :eek:

[cj]

So, being a 7% jock at Sun last season is the basis for the claim that he gave MTB bad rides in his two starts at Sun...and is the cause for the 2nd and 4th placings? Is that where this stat is taking us? Is so, ole Sam was right. Although I am going from memory, I think Lambert was over a 15% jock for the year 2008. He is a capable rider for that circuit, no matter who wants to throw him under the bus, trying to backfit a Derby winner.

Ez

Capable riders give bad rides too. Anyone that watches those races and thinks these were not bad rides needs to probably brush up on race watching skills...or bet more.

[ezrabrooks]

Capable riders give bad rides too. Anyone that watches those races and thinks these were not bad rides needs to probably brush up on race watching skills...or bet more.

Most Sun Rts are won by horses on or near the lead by the half. I don't know if these fall into the bad ride catagory...but, it looks like it was a ride trying to fit Sunland.

Ez

[cj]

One size doesn't fit all, and it certainly was not the way to go in either of his routes at Sunland.

Also, I would disagree with your premise about Sunland anyway.

In non maiden fast track routes at Sunland at 1 1/16 or longer, 36 of them, the winner came from at least 2.5 lengths back at the pace call (6f) 20 times.

[ezrabrooks]

One size doesn't fit all, and it certainly was not the way to go in either of his routes at Sunland.

Also, I would disagree with your premise about Sunland anyway.

In non maiden fast track routes at Sunland at 1 1/16 or longer, 36 of them, the winner came from at least 2.5 lengths back at the pace call (6f) 20 times.

Well..then we agree, you have to near the pace to be able to close at Sunland....although, 2.5 in a far cry from being dead last and 17 back at the three quarters. Also, "Non Maiden" at Sunland covers a bunch of speed with no hope.

Ez