PastPosters, Redboarders, Dreamers and the Bull%#%#!

[InFront]

I know many may take this post the wrong way but that is the way it is. Why are there so many of these types of players as in this thread's headings on forums? Is their sole purpose is trying to impress others or are they so far into dreamland they don't even know it?

First we have the past-posting and redboaders who post picks AFTER the race has run as why they liked this horse usually a bomber or why this horse lost usually a favorite. After any race you can come up with some silly logical reason why this horse won or lost. Yes practically ANY RACE, ANY HORSE. I'm surprised more didn't post how they nailed the Derby winner. Hec, look deep enough you'll find some reason like it was the only horse coming off of a key race. Well ya but what about the other thousand horses with the same criteria that end up losing meaning this kind of angle is useless. So it is ok to talk about past winners if there is something logical as to why they won that may ALSO have a tiny chance to win overall longterm or forwardly.

Then we have those that claim this works or that works without really running it through a huge database which 99% of what is posted will fail at anyway especially when testing forwardly. Like trainer angle stuff as been talked about recently on another thread. After the fact and races has been run you can simply query tons of trainers that showed flat bet profits, profits when certain scenarios came up, profits based on certain criteria, etc. Hec you can even go back two years and show profits with trainer angles. Or how this factor, algorithm or angle has been doing great at this track/distance/class, etc. But once again when forward testing any of these finding 99% not only will flop but have terrrible rois for future races.

Then of course we have the wild claimers posting they produce X% winners with X% playable races with X% roi. Do they really believe that most of us will believe in such "wild claims" and they truely think they are that much smarter than the rest? If they do then they are deeper in dreamland that we think.

While I enjoy visiting mainly this forum I disregard most of what is posted especially by certain members. But do take in considertion and listen to maybe a handful of serious handicappers/researchers members that may give solid advice especially if they have tested their findings, not ideas or thoughts, against huge databases. Of course this is the reason why I even visit this forum. But the problem is you have to weed through so much smoke and bull the solid good stuff is becoming harder and harder to find.

Ok, enough venting for now. Now how many agree with what I said above or how many want to shoot me?

[46zilzal]

How does one LEARN ANYTHING? By REVIEW, if one does not review they never learn.

I would suggest your keeping up your eclectic review.

[Relwob Owner]

I know many may take this post the wrong way but that is the way it is. Why are there so many of these types of players as in this thread's headings on forums? Is their sole purpose is trying to impress others or are they so far into dreamland they don't even know it?

First we have the past-posting and redboaders who post picks AFTER the race has run as why they liked this horse usually a bomber or why this horse lost usually a favorite. After any race you can come up with some silly logical reason why this horse won or lost. Yes practically ANY RACE, ANY HORSE. I'm surprised more didn't post how they nailed the Derby winner. Hec, look deep enough you'll find some reason like it was the only horse coming off of a key race. Well ya but what about the other thousand horses with the same criteria that end up losing.

Then we have those that claim this works without really running it through a huge database which 99% of what is posted will fail a it anyway especially when testing forwardly. Like trainer angle stuff as been talked about on another thread. After the fact and races has been run you can simply query tons of trainers that showed flat bet profits, profits when certain scenarios came up, profits based on certain criteria, etc. Hec you can even go back two years and show profits with trainer angles. Or how this factor, algorithm or angle has been doing great at this track/distance/class, etc. But once again when forward testing any of these finding 99% not only will flop but have terrrible rois for future races.

Then of course we have the wild claimers posting they produce X% winners with X% playable races with X% roi. Do they really believe that most of us will believe in such "wild claims" and they truely think they are that much smarter than the rest? If they do then they are deeper in dreamland that we think.

While I enjoy visiting mainly this forum I disregard most of what is posted especially by certain members. But do take in considertion and listen to maybe a handful of serious handicappers/researchers members that may give solid advice especially if they have tested their findings, not ideas or thoughts, against huge databases. Of course this is the reason why I even visit this forum. But the problem is you have to weed through so much smoke and bull the solid good stuff is becoming harder and harder to find.

Ok, enough venting for now. Now how many agree with what I said above or how many want to shoot me?

I said it on another thread and the last two weeks have been kind of like the perfect storm---leading up to the Derby, people posting aggressive, in your face predictions as if they are fact and not being heard from after the Derby where they were wrong...then , you have the people who post that they won after the Derby who were never heard from before....so, I would say that i mostly agree with you in terms of people saying they had him afterwards...

What I dont mind as much, as 46 pointed out a bit, are the posts that maybe suggest things we all missed the first time around that could have maybe given us all a hint....or, things things that occurred during the race that led to the massive upset....however, in the case of MTB, anyone who said they knew it beforehand certainly didnt post before the Derby, unless I missed it.

[46zilzal]

in the case of MTB, anyone who said they knew it beforehand certainly didnt post before the Derby, unless I missed it.

We had a contest at PaceandCap (Sartin site) and only one newbie had a $5.00 wager on the winner to win the entire contest.

[ryesteve]

Now how many agree with what I said aboveI do. I'm not even looking at any kentucky derby threads anymore, because it's gotten too ridiculous.

[Relwob Owner]

We had a contest at PaceandCap (Sartin site) and only one newbie had a $5.00 wager on the winner to win the entire contest.


Woah....how many people were in it?

[acorn54]

personally i keep quiet usually when someone is misinformed about this or that angle or fact in handicapping the horses. after all of what benefit is it to me to set someone straight on handicapping horses. after all we are dealing in a parimutuel market where we are competing with one another, plus the fact i probably spent alot of time doing research finding the popular falsehoods that other handicappers take as truth. i will give my research findings to other players that have done me a favor but that is as far as i go.

[InFront]

I do. I'm not even looking at any kentucky derby threads anymore, because it's gotten too ridiculous.

As with any big race pastposters are common but this thread has to do with all posts in general. As in several other threads even everyday races this same pastposting pattern occurs. And then we have some who constantly post this works or that works. With access to a good size database I use to once in awhile query some of these hair brain ideas. Yes, most never even bothered with cause the posted idea or concept just didn't make sense to begin with and/or I knew something like that wouldn't work to begin with. But even some of the logical ones didn't either. And I'm not talking about show small losses but most shown huge losses and for some unknown reason the poster actually thinks they work and are profitable. I would be surprised if one came back even close to break even let alone is profitable as posted.

Yes, as with anything you need to read, test, listen, research TO LEARN. But it just seems lately while the forum is at least active it is so cluttered with such nonsense and bull%#%# it takes forever to weed through and find a nugget or two. Hey, we all have opinions when it comes to racing but many post things as fact which is OK if they were actually based on hard-core researched facts.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

Ok, enough venting for now. Now how many agree with what I said above or how many want to shoot me?....protest too much.

You act as if navigating a thread has actual obstacles.

I am amazed by posters that I will share perspectives identically with on one topic, and be polar opposite on another. You eventually learn those that are worth your time, and those that will only aggravate you.

Then there are those that you always seem to agree with, but I actually find the threads that I completely disagree with more interesting.

It is about the same as when you are actually at the track. I've never found redboarding too obnoxious. No more, or no less, than the guy at the track that pushes a winning ticket in your face. It is racing, brother, and part of the fabric.

My question for you is this: What do you expect?

[kenwoodallpromos]

It should be easy to get a list of official sellers of information, programs, etc. of people on this forum,so you would not have to weed through my kind of posts! In trying to learn and discuss various angles and issues and probably sound like opposite-talking; I redboard everytime I look at a PP and open myself up to new angles when I read post-Derby postsd ( I see tis much posting once a year!); I bet $2.00 each on 17 horses in the Derby; I do not claim I knew which ONE would win!!

[Ted Craven]

Woah....how many people were in it?

48 people. And that guy wasn't a newbie either, just a 'lurker'. Gave pretty much the same explanations we've read elsewhere here, post-mortem, as to why MTB looked to improve: fastest 2nd call pace last race, the wide trips, the Canadian stakes experience, etc, etc. Using 46's favourite software too...

Ted

[JustRalph]

great Post Hajck :ThmbUp:

[fmolf]

....protest too much.

You act as if navigating a thread has actual obstacles.

I am amazed by posters that I will share perspectives identically with on one topic, and be polar opposite on another. You eventually learn those that are worth your time, and those that will only aggravate you.

Then there are those that you always seem to agree with, but I actually find the threads that I completely disagree with more interesting.

It is about the same as when you are actually at the track. I've never found redboarding too obnoxious. No more, or no less, than the guy at the track that pushes a winning ticket in your face. It is racing, brother, and part of the fabric.

My question for you is this: What do you expect?excellent post i am glad that people post their points of view even if it is after the fact...this is how learning takes place thru examination of history!ask any school teacher the best way to learn is thru example....let the people boast about this and that if i can learn thru this give and take that is great...no harm no foul!

[Mike A]

...and a special "bingo!", from my viewpoint, for Hajck's post.

P.S., Hajck...I'm curious as to where (if anywhere outside your own mind) you got your signature phrase from. ..Mainly 'cause I've read it somewhere, and was wondering if you got it from the same place.

[newtothegame]

Hmmmm...I know this may come across wrong to some and I apologize in advance if that be the case.
I can only speak for myself, and outside of the "off topic" sections, I come to the horse racing side to LEARN. I try to read, listen, and formulate opinions. If I am unsure of something, I ask (or, there have been a few who set me straight) lol. There have been some who have helped me greatly. Unlike one of the above post, I think new people NEED help and guidance. If you "old" timers seriously want to grow this sport as you say, then STOP with the attitudes of witholding all of your "secret" info. Now thats not to say you need to GIVE it away...its about the attitude more then the info.
I have PM'ed cmoore a few times (please feel free to ask him this)...I have NEVER asked him to give me a horse or a play. I feel I need to earn that on my own. But I will tell you I asked him for direction in finding info. Ben...has talked to me a few times and gave me horses without me ever asking...and each time I was extremely appreciative. I offered him my opinions and asked his but NEVER said "ben" give me something I havent earned.
I just think the attitudes here in this sport is what keeps more people
from wanting to "go all in".
Ive got to be honest when I say this...but there are alot of Phil Helmuths in this sport. Some like him...Personally, I feel he turns alot off in the sport.
This is a very
trying" sport with more information then probably all the other sports combined. Many Many theories and methods, of which I don't think any ONE is right. I think the actual key to this sport (in this time frame) is a combination of many of the theories. So trust me when I say this. From my perspective, giving up "your" secrets will not hinder any pool. It will help newer players on the road to enjoying this game.
And again, this is not a stab at any one person, its a stab at the mentality. After watching how old, and young players alike were dumbfounded after the derby. (And I have read many more where it wasnt just this race). trust me...your "golden keys" to this game...arent so golden. We might all learn from each other.:bang:

[kenwoodallpromos]

I aghree and would like to see 1 race per week with free PP's picked apart post-by-post. Maybe a HANA race...

[acorn54]

Hmmmm...I know this may come across wrong to some and I apologize in advance if that be the case.
I can only speak for myself, and outside of the "off topic" sections, I come to the horse racing side to LEARN. I try to read, listen, and formulate opinions. If I am unsure of something, I ask (or, there have been a few who set me straight) lol. There have been some who have helped me greatly. Unlike one of the above post, I think new people NEED help and guidance. If you "old" timers seriously want to grow this sport as you say, then STOP with the attitudes of witholding all of your "secret" info. Now thats not to say you need to GIVE it away...its about the attitude more then the info.
I have PM'ed cmoore a few times (please feel free to ask him this)...I have NEVER asked him to give me a horse or a play. I feel I need to earn that on my own. But I will tell you I asked him for direction in finding info. Ben...has talked to me a few times and gave me horses without me ever asking...and each time I was extremely appreciative. I offered him my opinions and asked his but NEVER said "ben" give me something I havent earned.
I just think the attitudes here in this sport is what keeps more people
from wanting to "go all in".
Ive got to be honest when I say this...but there are alot of Phil Helmuths in this sport. Some like him...Personally, I feel he turns alot off in the sport.
This is a very
trying" sport with more information then probably all the other sports combined. Many Many theories and methods, of which I don't think any ONE is right. I think the actual key to this sport (in this time frame) is a combination of many of the theories. So trust me when I say this. From my perspective, giving up "your" secrets will not hinder any pool. It will help newer players on the road to enjoying this game.
And again, this is not a stab at any one person, its a stab at the mentality. After watching how old, and young players alike were dumbfounded after the derby. (And I have read many more where it wasnt just this race). trust me...your "golden keys" to this game...arent so golden. We might all learn from each other.:bang:

i think it is pretty simple to attract people to the game of horserace betting. the industry leaders have to lower the take and give the horseplayer a fighting chance to make a profit. the leaders in this game bemoan that horseracing is a dying gaming sport and is losing out to casinos and such but if the average joe knew he had a heck of better chance making money in horserace betting the industry would boom in no time with a huge increase in customer base. my personal story. in 2006 i started with a $200 bankroll and bet with pinnacle sports which gave a 7% rebate in comparison to american racetrack payouts. i made 1800 bucks in profit for the year. in 2007 pinnacle stopped taking bets on horseraces from u.s. customers because of the new internet gambling law enacted in the u.s.. for 2007 and 2008 i bet in the u.s. with brisbet.net and lost 2% of the money i bet both years, now if i still had that 7% rebate betting with pinnacle i would instead have shown a 5% profit for 2007 and 2008.

[Tom]

I find the post-race tear downs to be educational at times. You get the perspective of a lot of other people who handicap differently than I do, so there is a chance to pick up a new idea or two.

[fmolf]

I find the post-race tear downs to be educational at times. You get the perspective of a lot of other people who handicap differently than I do, so there is a chance to pick up a new idea or two.i agree 100%...i like the diferent ideas even if there after the fact ...one just has to learn to push the b.s aside and cull the information that is helpful!

[ranchwest]

I don't mind people sharing the joy of a nice score. I don't mind people doing a post mortem of a race.

What I mind is people who post the great mysteries of their fabulous choice and then play the shell game, the side-step, as to the specifics of how they made the selection.

If you're going to tell part of how you made a selection, then be prepared to tell it all or you will rightfully find people making charges of redboarding.

This is not to say that I expect everyone to tell all. I just get aggravated with the people who tell 5% while thumping their chest.

[Relwob Owner]

i agree 100%...i like the diferent ideas even if there after the fact ...one just has to learn to push the b.s aside and cull the information that is helpful!


well put...I am still learning the putting aside the bs process...:)

[InFront]

in 2006 i started with a $200 bankroll and bet with pinnacle sports which gave a 7% rebate in comparison to american racetrack payouts. i made 1800 bucks in profit for the year. in 2007 pinnacle stopped taking bets on horseraces from u.s. customers because of the new internet gambling law enacted in the u.s.. for 2007 and 2008 i bet in the u.s. with brisbet.net and lost 2% of the money i bet both years, now if i still had that 7% rebate betting with pinnacle i would instead have shown a 5% profit for 2007 and 2008.

This is the kind of post I like to read. Yes it may be discouraging but feel it is very honest, straight from the hip and tells it like it is. Racing as most of you serious players know is very difficult to extract ANY kind of profits from let alone mind boggling profits. But some posters make it seem like taking candy from a baby. Not!!!!

[InFront]

Don't let anyone kid you horse players especially serious ones are the most secretive people on the planet. They have to be that way. Basically any kind of professional gambler whether it be dogs, horses, casino games, sport bettors, etc. MUST be secretive and be in stealth mode every minute. Now remember I said serious professionals so you may be asking why there are so many blabber mouths in racing. Whether it be on forums or live at the tracks. Cause 99.9% of the information, tips, ideas, reasoning, etc. they bull about is useless. The ones that keep very much to themselves may, just may be the rare real winners out of the bunch.

Think about it, if you have a truely winning angle that churned even tiny profits year after year are you gonna post it exactly as formulated? Of course not, this is a game that you are betting against other players in the pools. And why I always said even if someone had a real winning method and released it to many others for free or sold it they can instantly turn a real winning method into a loser not within months but days.

But still so much garbage products are sold out there and people still buy them from tipsheets, tout services, etc. How could something or someone's picks ever work if even 50 others also have them. They can't! Just as the tons of methods and books that are sold every decade. If they ever did originally work which I doubt anyway they sure don't anymore once offered to Joe Blow. Like my old saying goes "if it don't work and you are very sure it don't work, then it is time to sell it cause that is the only way to ever make money on it".

[fmolf]

Don't let anyone kid you horse players especially serious ones are the most secretive people on the planet. They have to be that way. Basically any kind of professional gambler whether it be dogs, horses, casino games, sport bettors, etc. MUST be secretive and be in stealth mode every minute. Now remember I said serious professionals so you may be asking why there are so many blabber mouths in racing. Whether it be on forums or live at the tracks. Cause 99.9% of the information, tips, ideas, reasoning, etc. they bull about is useless. The ones that keep very much to themselves may, just may be the rare real winners out of the bunch.

Think about it, if you have a truely winning angle that churned even tiny profits year after year are you gonna post it exactly as formulated? Of course not, this is a game that you are betting against other players in the pools. And why I always said even if someone had a real winning method and released it to many others for free or sold it they can instantly turn a real winning method into a loser not within months but days.

But still so much garbage products are sold out there and people still buy them from tipsheets, tout services, etc. How could something or someone's picks ever work if even 50 others also have them. They can't! Just as the tons of methods and books that are sold every decade. If they ever did originally work which I doubt anyway they sure don't anymore once offered to Joe Blow. Like my old saying goes "if it don't work and you are very sure it don't work, then it is time to sell it cause that is the only way to ever make money on it".
their is a good deal of truth to those statements and i respect your opinion....but i still feel that any tidbit i can pick up from these forums is likely to help me in my developing and refining my particular style of handicapping. which is more comprehensive than saying i am a speed capper or a pace capper. i try to weigh the whole picture and all the different pertinent things available in this information age so if somebody else is posting a good idea i just need to decide how it fits into my style!...besides the key to any method working is the discipline of the user and the odds he will accept!

[fmolf]

well put...I am still learning the putting aside the bs process...:)
i'm trying to come up eith the second place horse in the preakness that's where i am putting my energy!

[Overlay]

Think about it, if you have a truely winning angle that churned even tiny profits year after year are you gonna post it exactly as formulated? Of course not, this is a game that you are betting against other players in the pools. And why I always said even if someone had a real winning method and released it to many others for free or sold it they can instantly turn a real winning method into a loser not within months but days.


That's the advantage of using a multi-factored, value-based approach. As the public overbets any particular one-dimensional angle, it must create overlays elsewhere in the field, as long as the player keeps an open mind about the winning chances of all the horses (or exotic combinations) in the race, rather than focusing solely on finding and betting a single horse or combination. That relieves the player of worrying about the word getting out on any particular horse or angle, or of having to continually keep re-inventing the wheel as the public catches on to individual angles and bets them into unprofitability.

[toetoe]

Head-In-Rear,

The postmortem ruminations can be just as enlightening as the longshot predictions of, say ... well, Toe-In-Mouth.

Past performance does not guarantee future success, but PP's surely help.

[Nitro]

I know many may take this post the wrong way but that is the way it is. Why are there so many of these types of players as in this thread's headings on forums? Is their sole purpose is trying to impress others or are they so far into dreamland they don't even know it?

First we have the past-posting and redboaders who post picks AFTER the race has run as why they liked this horse usually a bomber or why this horse lost usually a favorite. After any race you can come up with some silly logical reason why this horse won or lost. Yes practically ANY RACE, ANY HORSE. I'm surprised more didn't post how they nailed the Derby winner. Hec, look deep enough you'll find some reason like it was the only horse coming off of a key race. Well ya but what about the other thousand horses with the same criteria that end up losing meaning this kind of angle is useless. So it is ok to talk about past winners if there is something logical as to why they won that may ALSO have a tiny chance to win overall longterm or forwardly.

Then we have those that claim this works or that works without really running it through a huge database which 99% of what is posted will fail at anyway especially when testing forwardly. Like trainer angle stuff as been talked about recently on another thread. After the fact and races has been run you can simply query tons of trainers that showed flat bet profits, profits when certain scenarios came up, profits based on certain criteria, etc. Hec you can even go back two years and show profits with trainer angles. Or how this factor, algorithm or angle has been doing great at this track/distance/class, etc. But once again when forward testing any of these finding 99% not only will flop but have terrrible rois for future races.

Then of course we have the wild claimers posting they produce X% winners with X% playable races with X% roi. Do they really believe that most of us will believe in such "wild claims" and they truely think they are that much smarter than the rest? If they do then they are deeper in dreamland that we think.

While I enjoy visiting mainly this forum I disregard most of what is posted especially by certain members. But do take in considertion and listen to maybe a handful of serious handicappers/researchers members that may give solid advice especially if they have tested their findings, not ideas or thoughts, against huge databases. Of course this is the reason why I even visit this forum. But the problem is you have to weed through so much smoke and bull the solid good stuff is becoming harder and harder to find.

Ok, enough venting for now. Now how many agree with what I said above or how many want to shoot me?Now that the dust (or should I say mud) has settled on many of the post-derby threads here on this forum, I thought I might present a few of my own related thoughts. Although it’s somewhat settled there’s still some mud-slinging going on, but as Hajck pointed out that’s about Par for the course on many horseracing forums. Based on all of the threads that I’ve read, most people seem to be totally bewildered by the outcome. Sure you’ll see a few talking about why this long shot had a legitimate chance "after the fact", but of course it was never mentioned it before the race! I was really quite amused by someone who actually offered congratulatory remarks on one thread because he saw that someone else had rated the Winner with some unusually high pace figures. Those numbers (particularly those computer generated) as well as any others on Derby day along with a couple of bucks might have gotten you a ride on a NY subway, but that’s about it. I’m sure that others might agree that there are some other very amusing posts as well.

However, after reading NewToTheGame’s post, I realized that there must be many others like him (or her) that are not only confounded by the race results, but even more perplexed by those so-called handicappers trying to explain or even justifying the outcome. I took particular note of the following comment:
This is a very trying" sport with more information then probably all the other sports combined. Many theories and methods, of which I don't think any ONE is right. I think the actual key to this sport (in this time frame) is a combination of many of the theories. So trust me when I say this. From my perspective, giving up "your" secrets will not hinder any pool. It will help newer players on the road to enjoying this game.
And again, this is not a stab at any one person, it’s a stab at the mentality. After watching how old, and young players alike were dumbfounded after the derby. (And I have read many more where it wasn’t just this race). trust me...your "golden keys" to this game...aren’t so golden. We might all learn from each other. I put myself in his (or her) position and then thought about all those post-derby threads I read. I imagined what it must be like for someone new to the game (and trying to learn what its all about) to put things about this derby into proper perspective.

Some of NewToTheGame's comments are EXACTLY the problems that many handicappers (both novice and expert) face when they try to attack this game with limited resources. Namely a rigid platform that attempts to address multiple and varying race conditions (No. of entries, Distances, Classes, Track Surfaces & Conditions, Jockeys, Scratches, etc., etc.) in the same subjective way.

This brings me to another post or a least part of one (on another thread) by someone who seems to be a long time poster here. He might even be a seasoned veteran at this game I’m not sure, but I believe it clearly demonstrates the overall frustration experienced by many like him.
I may not have the required imagination for this game anymore.With this in mind I’d like to offer a few suggestions based on my personal experiences in this game. Whether they’re considered “golden gems” by anyone thinking coherently is immaterial to me. As I’ve mentioned before, “One man’s gold is another man’s garbage”.

Over the years I’ve come across many a race (particularly a stakes race) where due to the existing conditions the prediction of its outcome became a real problem. Many times it was either because the entries were very evenly matched (there was no standout), or because the racing environment itself neutralized even the best in the race. Naturally a player would have to have some prior experience to recognize these situations. After the late scratch of my key derby selection, I must admit that I had to re-think the entire race from a betting perspective. I was no longer interested in re-handicapping the other entries, because I already felt that the remaining playing field would have been shooting for the runner-up spots anyway.

However, a single comment on one of the networks solidified my belief that this derby field was now on even terms. The commentator was astute enough to recognize that the track condition coming up to the race was not really “sloppy” at all. He pointed out that it hadn’t rained at all since the early morning downpour. He said that there was no wind and the sun hadn’t appeared all day: Two key elements for drying out a track more rapidly. During the course of the day the maintenance crews both rolled and floated the track in an attempt to reduce its moisture content. So by derby time we really had what’s called a “muddy” track. As some might agree, this can play a lot differently then a truly sloppy track. Based on this information and the lack of any real telling signs in the Form, the race was truly up for grabs (even if you believed that the genes in some of those horses gave them an edge).

In situations like this I’ve always resorted to something that I learned somewhere along the line many years ago. It has time and again resulted in a somewhat dubious and I’ll admit illogical type play, but has very often been worthwhile. I like it because it’s goes right to the heart of the misconceptions that many have when dealing with a race like this. It’s really pretty straightforward: Anytime you’re confronted with such a race, just look for the one entry (or more) that on paper (based on a comparison of their PP’s) that simply does not belong in the race. Naturally these type entries will also wind up at much higher odds for this very reason alone. Having a good jockey on board doesn’t hurt either, especially one that might be more familiar with the grounds. In this year’s derby I found four such entries and although I was very disappointed that my key didn’t run, I was pleasantly surprised with the outcome! Sometimes the result of playing this game illogically (or more creatively) leads to amazement for different reasons. ;)
.

[newtothegame]

I enjoyed reading your post but if I may clear something up, its NOT the derby that just passed that perplexes people into not wanting to become a part of this sport. To be quite honest, I lOVED the outcome. (although LOVE does not describe my bets). :lol: As I mentioned in my post, its the mentality of alot of people in this sport who are "above" the game. Its the "I am better then you" mentality. To give an example of this, and this is from what ive seen posted here, look at how the trainer of MTB was treated leading up to the derby by the media and probably most of the "regulars" at Churchill. From all that ive seen and read, its almost as if "what is he doing here"? Thats why I loved seeing him and MTB win. Toss it all in their faces. Sad part is alot of the "players" are the same way.
I love learning and reading. (As a matter of fact, I just ordered two more books "MODERN PACE HANDICAPPIN both versions 1991 and 2001). I look forward to getting them and diving in. I just think that if this sport is truly to grow, all the "ambassadors" (thats the old timers from all aspects of this sport) need to be more welcoming!!! Not so abrupt and rude coming across as the above mentioned descriptions.

[ranchwest]

I enjoyed reading your post but if I may clear something up, its NOT the derby that just passed that perplexes people into not wanting to become a part of this sport. To be quite honest, I lOVED the outcome. (although LOVE does not describe my bets). :lol: As I mentioned in my post, its the mentality of alot of people in this sport who are "above" the game. Its the "I am better then you" mentality. To give an example of this, and this is from what ive seen posted here, look at how the trainer of MTB was treated leading up to the derby by the media and probably most of the "regulars" at Churchill. From all that ive seen and read, its almost as if "what is he doing here"? Thats why I loved seeing him and MTB win. Toss it all in their faces. Sad part is alot of the "players" are the same way.
I love learning and reading. (As a matter of fact, I just ordered two more books "MODERN PACE HANDICAPPIN both versions 1991 and 2001). I look forward to getting them and diving in. I just think that if this sport is truly to grow, all the "ambassadors" (thats the old timers from all aspects of this sport) need to be more welcoming!!! Not so abrupt and rude coming across as the above mentioned descriptions.

1) Horse players tend to be very passionate with their interest in horse racing.

2) The internet tends to be a very impersonal medium.

So, horse players may sometimes come across as abrupt and rude, but that shouldn't surprise us a lot.

As someone else suggested, learn to wade through the BS. There are people who are willing to and capable of helping.

Collect the pearls of wisdom. Each is valuable, no matter how small.

[fmolf]

1) Horse players tend to be very passionate with their interest in horse racing.

2) The internet tends to be a very impersonal medium.

So, horse players may sometimes come across as abrupt and rude, but that shouldn't surprise us a lot.

As someone else suggested, learn to wade through the BS. There are people who are willing to and capable of helping.

Collect the pearls of wisdom. Each is valuable, no matter how small.
that was a hell of a lot of bs just to redboard about being pleasantly surprised!...that horse was running in the race regardless of the scratches and regardless of track condition

[startngate]

What I mind is people who post the great mysteries of their fabulous choice and then play the shell game, the side-step, as to the specifics of how they made the selection.

If you're going to tell part of how you made a selection, then be prepared to tell it all or you will rightfully find people making charges of redboarding.I had the Oaks/Derby Double, and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3.

How I did it .... I singled Rachel and Einstein, and used the ALL button in the Derby ... :D

In other words ... pure luck!

[fmolf]

I had the Oaks/Derby Double, and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3.

How I did it .... I singled Rachel and Einstein, and used the ALL button in the Derby ... :D

In other words ... pure luck!
congratulations... at least you admit you had no opinion in the derby and were just taking a gamble with two solid singles...i also had the same pick 3 with three singles i had iwr in the derby leg and got a measly $6 for a consolation...lol....but it was for a $2 dollar bet so...still a profit lol :D
once again nice bet!

[Viruss]

For all those newtothegame.......

I don't have much experiance to share with you but here are some Book titles that have helped me greatly...Beyer on Speed ,Speed to Spare,and Calibration Handicapping .The last of which gives a simple pace handicapping explination and handicapping process.....also i copied and pasted this from D Mitchells website.

Earl J


The bottom line is simple. The hierarchy is uncomplicated. Quirin gave it to us in 1983. The most important factors, in order of relevance, are:

1. Ability
2. Form and Condition
3. Angles (extenuating circumstances)
4. Value

[Relwob Owner]

I had the Oaks/Derby Double, and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3.

How I did it .... I singled Rachel and Einstein, and used the ALL button in the Derby ... :D

In other words ... pure luck!


Now that is some good stuff....great score and thanks for being honest....also a sweet ticket because it wasnt lucky at all...you found horses you liked, you found a race that was wide open and you capitalized....great work and congrats!

[ranchwest]

I had the Oaks/Derby Double, and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby Pick 3.

How I did it .... I singled Rachel and Einstein, and used the ALL button in the Derby ... :D

In other words ... pure luck!

The smartest bet I ever saw was similar to yours. That's not pure luck. That's pure smart wagering in my book.

[ranchwest]

that was a hell of a lot of bs just to redboard about being pleasantly surprised!...that horse was running in the race regardless of the scratches and regardless of track condition

I don't understand what this has to do with my post. I'm not even sure what you're talking about.

[cj]

Congrats to Nitro...

In a thread with Redboarders in the title, that may be the longest redboard post in history.

[fmolf]

I don't understand what this has to do with my post. I'm not even sure what you're talking about.
i apologizeto you ranch i am sorry i accidently quoted the wrong person... i hope you figured out i wanted to quote the long winded gentleman who said he played the chaos angle ........i totally agree with everything you posted!..

[fmolf]

Congrats to Nitro...

In a thread with Redboarders in the title, that may be the longest redboard post in history.
agreed a lot of words to say very little!

[ranchwest]

i apologizeto you ranch i am sorry i accidently quoted the wrong person... i hope you figured out i wanted to quote the long winded gentleman who said he played the chaos angle ........i totally agree with everything you posted!..

No problem.

[DanG]

I don’t know if this post even belongs in this thread, but a couple I’ve read lately seem to be on this theme…

I think we should keep in mind we are competing against each other. Does this excuse acting like a complete a$$; of course not…but most of the chest thumping and passion (before or after the race) is born of competitive people fighting over the same elusive dollar.

If you record professional athletes during a contest you will hear a lot worse then most racing chat rooms produce.

I also think there are three basic categories of red-boarding and or posting in general.



1. Two experienced players disagree and have at it…let the chips fall where they may as long as they show some degree of respect for each other.
2. A “newbie” is taken on by an experienced player and is made to feel insignificant and discouraged from further interaction. Never will understand this one; especially if it’s from a person who derives any income from the industry. It seems like a completely selfish / counterproductive act to discourage new blood from a business in decline.
3. Two newbie’s hashing out a subject and discussing angles that most on this board discussed 30+ years ago. Again; part of the learning process and a major reason new blood is not learning our sport. Few places are less inviting then a race track when the entire language can take years to learn.
As far as sifting through the posts to find worthwhile information. I’ve copied dozens of posts that have been very helpful from this board. (Game Theory, Rick from Nevada are worth a search) You learn over time who fits your style and who is a waste of effort.

I must say of the successful players I’ve been lucky to know:

I don’t know of one who could come on here and “explain” how or why they are successful. In every case there are so many subtle aspects to what they do I don’t know how they could summarize it in words. Unfortunately; or maybe fortunately its not X + Y = Z in my experience. It’s often year’s worth of trial and error, which must be painfully gone through before you can (maybe) squeeze a profit from this brutal game.

[InFront]

To All:

For me I don't care what came out in a certain individual race, what didn't come out, why this horse happened to win, how come the longest shot won by daylight, etc. I never look at racing as a one race situation. What I care about is what works over tons of races, what doesn't work over tons of races, how the public wagers on certain factors and criteria over tons of races, etc. This is what anyone who does serious research should only care about and think it is the only way to "somewhat" determine what might happen in future races (the important ones).

As I posted you can make a case for ANY WINNING OR LOSING HORSE IN ANY RACE "after the race has run". But unless that information can then be proven to work over thousands of new or future races it doesn't really matter. And almost all can be debunked easily not to work over thousands of new races. So if so why would you ever bet a dime on it on that one very PAST race?

You here so many say this horse won for this reason and is a good angle. Or this big favorite lost for this reason and is a good eliminator angle. But it's when you go query that same logic 99% of the time do you get kicked in the butt.

[46zilzal]

HANDICAPPING, and often the correct way to wager on said race is augmented in one's understanding by REVIEW.

EVERY SPORT, EVERY participant does what? they REVIEW what they did and learned from it.

Without review you learn NOTHING

While I may disagree with the methods, I am always open to new ways of looking at things and have learned a lot about wagering here by listening to REVIEWS by others

[fmolf]

HANDICAPPING, and often the correct way to wager on said race is augmented in one's understanding by REVIEW.

EVERY SPORT, EVERY participant does what? they REVIEW what they did and learned from it.

Without review you learn NOTHING

While I may disagree with the methods, I am always open to new ways of looking at things and have learned a lot about wagering here by listening to REVIEWS by others
well said history is the best teacher.....i also agree with dan g that we as experienced handicappers..whatever that means! need to educate and try to help new racing fans understand this game...those of us that have been playing for a long time know how complex and befuddling this endeavor can seem...their is a learning curve and if we can help other younger horse players and newcomers from getting discouraged i think we should...we can perhaps help them from making the same mistakes we made during our own trial and error period of our handicapping lives!

[ranchwest]

To All:

For me I don't care what came out in a certain individual race, what didn't come out, why this horse happened to win, how come the longest shot won by daylight, etc. I never look at racing as a one race situation. What I care about is what works over tons of races, what doesn't work over tons of races, how the public wagers on certain factors and criteria over tons of races, etc. This is what anyone who does serious research should only care about and think it is the only way to "somewhat" determine what might happen in future races (the important ones).

As I posted you can make a case for ANY WINNING OR LOSING HORSE IN ANY RACE "after the race has run". But unless that information can then be proven to work over thousands of new or future races it doesn't really matter. And almost all can be debunked easily not to work over thousands of new races. So if so why would you ever bet a dime on it on that one very PAST race?

You here so many say this horse won for this reason and is a good angle. Or this big favorite lost for this reason and is a good eliminator angle. But it's when you go query that same logic 99% of the time do you get kicked in the butt.

You've noted that nobody is giving tips that always work. Well, that's true.

Every race is a new puzzle. Big track or small track, winners or non-winners, young horses or old horses, sprints or routes, on and on.

The tips to use are the ones that EVER help you, not the ones that ALWAYS help you.

[startngate]

congratulations... at least you admit you had no opinion in the derby and were just taking a gamble with two solid singles...i also had the same pick 3 with three singles i had iwr in the derby leg and got a measly $6 for a consolation...lol....but it was for a $2 dollar bet so...still a profit lol :D
once again nice bet!Now that is some good stuff....great score and thanks for being honest....also a sweet ticket because it wasnt lucky at all...you found horses you liked, you found a race that was wide open and you capitalized....great work and congrats!The smartest bet I ever saw was similar to yours. That's not pure luck. That's pure smart wagering in my book.Thanks to all.

Surprisingly, I did sort of have an opinion in the Derby. I wasn't keen on any of the favorites, and could make a case for enough of the others that I just hit the ALL button. I just got lucky that MTB won from a payout perspective, and that I didn't try my normal strategy in these situations of trying to find one or two to throw out because he would have been one of the first out the door.

BTW, even knowing the results and reading everyone's reasons why he won, I still can't play the Derby winner ... even with someone else's money ... :D

[InFront]

You've noted that nobody is giving tips that always work. Well, that's true.

Every race is a new puzzle. Big track or small track, winners or non-winners, young horses or old horses, sprints or routes, on and on.

The tips to use are the ones that EVER help you, not the ones that ALWAYS help you.


What I meant in my last post is I look at the big picture not what HAS HAPPEN in a recent past race. We can't bet on those races anymore. And constantly look at why a horse may have just happened to win that race. And if does NOT work over thousands of other races then it is useless to me. Just cause MTB won the Derby am I gonna start betting on horses that have similar criteria such as running in a Key race last? No, f course not cause I know such angles will lose money over the long run. Sure if you are betting real money daily on races you may care about short term results which is money won or lost but as a serious handicapper the LONG TERM is all that really matters. Winners and winning days or races come and go but longterm profits last forever.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

For me I don't care what came out in a certain individual race, what didn't come out, why this horse happened to win, how come the longest shot won by daylight, etc. I never look at racing as a one race situation. What I care about is what works over tons of races, what doesn't work over tons of races, how the public wagers on certain factors and criteria over tons of races, etc. This is what anyone who does serious research should only care about and think it is the only way to "somewhat" determine what might happen in future races (the important ones).

As I posted you can make a case for ANY WINNING OR LOSING HORSE IN ANY RACE "after the race has run". But unless that information can then be proven to work over thousands of new or future races it doesn't really matter. And almost all can be debunked easily not to work over thousands of new races. So if so why would you ever bet a dime on it on that one very PAST race?

You here so many say this horse won for this reason and is a good angle. Or this big favorite lost for this reason and is a good eliminator angle. But it's when you go query that same logic 99% of the time do you get kicked in the butt....does every journey start.

You yourself are saying that every once in a while a theory will pay off over the long run.

How about the past posting theory that shows where Borel is 12-22 in two turn routes at Churchill in graded stakes over the last 5 years with an average mutuel of over $38. Now, imagine the poster makes this known on the board two years ago when Borel is something like 8-16 under the conditions. I'm thinking you are making some money from this perspective. (I wish I could give proper credit to the individuals posting this stat, but I am to lazy to look them up. Kudos for this stat though)

When someone posts that he has made a tremendous hit using ANY angle, I don't think it a waste of time to investigate it further. Sure, most of the time it won't pan out over the long haul, but I have gleaned some gems over the years, and I kow for a fact that dismissing these pearls would have cost me a LOT of $$.

[ryesteve]

How about the past posting theory that shows where Borel is 12-22 in two turn routes at Churchill in graded stakes over the last 5 years with an average mutuel of over $38. Now, imagine the poster makes this known on the board two years ago when Borel is something like 8-16 under the conditions. I'm thinking you are making some money from this perspective. The problem I have with this sort of thinking is that for every instance like this one that actually panned out, you can find hundreds of other "8 for 16" trends that go straight into toilet when you start betting them forward. Unless there's something that distinguishes "Borel in graded 2-turn CD routes" from all those other potential angles before the fact, I don't see the viability.

[fmolf]

The problem I have with this sort of thinking is that for every instance like this one that actually panned out, you can find hundreds of other "8 for 16" trends that go straight into toilet when you start betting them forward. Unless there's something that distinguishes "Borel in graded 2-turn CD routes" from all those other potential angles before the fact, I don't see the viability.
i personally do not go much for trends like that because one bomb like mtb skews the whole roi..... the rest of his horse could have been first or second choices!...it's all relative one has to put in the work to come up with your own angles...that 's what makes this fun.... i like to hear everyones input so i have a larger choice as to what avenues i might like to investigate...the more i am aware of the better my chances of uncovering that longshot!

[Hajck Hillstrom]

The problem I have with this sort of thinking is that for every instance like this one that actually panned out, you can find hundreds of other "8 for 16" trends that go straight into toilet when you start betting them forward. Unless there's something that distinguishes "Borel in graded 2-turn CD routes" from all those other potential angles before the fact, I don't see the viability.Fair play, and I hear where you are coming from, but to paraphrase, if I may, viability is in the eye of the beholder.

Example: Years ago Mark Cramer and Bill Olmsted published an article of mine I referenced as "Overtime." The article illustrated the 9-7 furlong angle that I had managed tremendous success with. I have illustrated this angle in this forum on numerous occasions as one of my favorite. In `93 it nailed the biggest exacta in Santa Anita history ($4,400 for $2)(with AVOID PENALTY going off at odds of more than 100-1 and winning the race). Everytime I see this angle, I make the horse a contender. Does it always win? No.... but it has shown a profit for me over the last two decades. In today's 7th race at Calder, the :7: BATTLE BACK was racing at 7 furlongs coming out of a 1 1/8 affair. :7: BATTLE BACK'S off odds were 67-1. I've always advocated a wheel/backwheel in the exacta with ALL with double digit odds contenders using this angle. In today's race, the 6th favorite won the race at odds of 6-1 and the :7: BATTLE BACK got up for second keying a $808 exacta for $2.

Now, am I telling you to bet this every time you see it? No, but what I am saying is that this is a viable play through my eyes, and when you do see a horse turning back to 7 furlongs out of a 9 furlong event, you might want to consider the horse a contender at any odds.

What I am trying to show is that some "past posting" or "redboarding" is nothing more than illustrating yet another perspective in which one can approach the game from. Discount it, or dismiss it if you will.... in fact I prefer you do, but don't tell me you weren't given every opportunity to capitalize from it when you see it.

[newtothegame]

2. A “newbie” is taken on by an experienced player and is made to feel insignificant and discouraged from further interaction. Never will understand this one; especially if it’s from a person who derives any income from the industry. It seems like a completely selfish / counterproductive act to discourage new blood from a business in decline.



This goes to the heart of my post.....:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
thank you...as maybe others realized what I was saying and just refused to acknowledge it or didnt get it at all...but this sport will only grow if we are "inviting" and less obnoxious to the new players who just want to learn!!!!

[fmolf]

Fair play, and I hear where you are coming from, but to paraphrase, if I may, viability is in the eye of the beholder.

Example: Years ago Mark Cramer and Bill Olmsted published an article of mine I referenced as "Overtime." The article illustrated the 9-7 furlong angle that I had managed tremendous success with. I have illustrated this angle in this forum on numerous occasions as one of my favorite. In `93 it nailed the biggest exacta in Santa Anita history ($4,400 for $2)(with AVOID PENALTY going off at odds of more than 100-1 and winning the race). Everytime I see this angle, I make the horse a contender. Does it always win? No.... but it has shown a profit for me over the last two decades. In today's 7th race at Calder, the :7: BATTLE BACK was racing at 7 furlongs coming out of a 1 1/8 affair. :7: BATTLE BACK'S off odds were 67-1. I've always advocated a wheel/backwheel in the exacta with ALL with double digit odds contenders using this angle. In today's race, the 6th favorite won the race at odds of 6-1 and the :7: BATTLE BACK got up for second keying a $808 exacta for $2.

Now, am I telling you to bet this every time you see it? No, but what I am saying is that this is a viable play through my eyes, and when you do see a horse turning back to 7 furlongs out of a 9 furlong event, you might want to consider the horse a contender at any odds.

What I am trying to show is that some "past posting" or "redboarding" is nothing more than illustrating yet another perspective in which one can approach the game from. Discount it, or dismiss it if you will.... in fact I prefer you do, but don't tell me you weren't given every opportunity to capitalize from it when you see it.
that is just the kind of informative nuggets that i like to cull... precise and to the point!.. i have jotted it down in my notebook of angles i keep...you my friend have been immortalized!....imn a notebook on a shelf in a dark cold pantry... :D :ThmbUp:

[fmolf]

This goes to the heart of my post.....:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:
thank you...as maybe others realized what I was saying and just refused to acknowledge it or didnt get it at all...but this sport will only grow if we are "inviting" and less obnoxious to the new players who just want to learn!!!!yes i do agree with everything you said it all makes so much sense to bad we all cannot adhere to the general principals outlined

[NJ Stinks]

i think it is pretty simple to attract people to the game of horserace betting. the industry leaders have to lower the take and give the horseplayer a fighting chance to make a profit.

That's it in a nutshell. There is no way I would encourage a young person to bet on anything that takes roughly 20% off the table every hand. I can afford to "play" and enjoy doing so. But I'd just as soon see someone I care about learn to enjoy craps or blackjack - games that offer a much better chance of success.

As far as offering lousy advice to fellow players, I am guilty of that for sure. Even though I am certainly not a winning horseplayer, I encourage my less experienced buddies to play Pick 3's, Pick 4's, the Magna 5, and 50 cent Pick 5's. I also encourage backwheeling exactas instead of place bets. I suggest these bets not because they made me rich :( but because I think it gives a player with a somewhat limited bankroll a chance to make a decent score on a given day. I'm not 99% sure making these kind of bets is the way to go, InFront, but I'm not trying to BS anybody either. :)

[fmolf]

That's it in a nutshell. There is no way I would encourage a young person to bet on anything that takes roughly 20% off the table every hand. I can afford to "play" and enjoy doing so. But I'd just as soon see someone I care about learn to enjoy craps or blackjack - games that offer a much better chance of success.

As far as offering lousy advice to fellow players, I am guilty of that for sure. Even though I am certainly not a winning horseplayer, I encourage my less experienced buddies to play Pick 3's, Pick 4's, the Magna 5, and 50 cent Pick 5's. I also encourage backwheeling exactas instead of place bets. I suggest these bets not because they made me rich :( but because I think it gives a player with a somewhat limited bankroll a chance to make a decent score on a given day. I'm not 99% sure making these kind of bets is the way to go, InFront, but I'm not trying to BS anybody either. :)
i use the exacta as a place bet but i do not backwheel it just use the logical contenders i think can beat me......i do not htink i agree with your advice about the p3's 4's and 5's...these are difficult bets and hard even for seasoned pro's to hit.....i am not one of the seasoned pros ...but a serious recreational player... i think novices should be playing in the win pools and the exacta pools...if they can losw lwss than the takeout then they can experiment with more exotic bets...i tell my newbie friends to bet two horses a race a la sartin so they cash more often!horse racing is still a positive expectation game if one has patience to pick his spots to bet...casino games are all negative expectation!

[ranchwest]

What I meant in my last post is I look at the big picture not what HAS HAPPEN in a recent past race. We can't bet on those races anymore. And constantly look at why a horse may have just happened to win that race. And if does NOT work over thousands of other races then it is useless to me. Just cause MTB won the Derby am I gonna start betting on horses that have similar criteria such as running in a Key race last? No, f course not cause I know such angles will lose money over the long run. Sure if you are betting real money daily on races you may care about short term results which is money won or lost but as a serious handicapper the LONG TERM is all that really matters. Winners and winning days or races come and go but longterm profits last forever.

Races are won one at a time.

[ryesteve]

Everytime I see this angle, I make the horse a contender. Does it always win? No.... but it has shown a profit for me over the last two decades.I'd certainly call that "viability"

[newtothegame]

ok..here goes..and i hope I don't get lambasted for this "inexperience"....(closing eyes and shuddering)...but WHAT IS BACKWHEELING?????
I have seen this term used many times here and do no understand what is meant as when the term is usually used, there isnt an example so I can "see" it...
In an above post, I believe it was jack...but he mentioned an angle where he uses a horse coming from 9f down to 7f..and I believe he mentioned the horse going off at 67-1. Is "back wheeling" using this horse on top of say "all" and then reversing it using "all" on top of this horse???
thanks in advance....
Paul

[Mike A]

To try to address your original post that started this thread more relevantly, I feel like I need to know where you're coming from a little better, especially regarding the following:

Do you consider yourself more of an angle player? ...One who mostly looks for profitable roi situations in terms of single or multiple factors that don't involve fundamentals i.e., speed, pace, form cycles?

And do you always make your selections/"decisions" based only upon this info?
How much emphasis do you put on "fundamentals"?

I'm not sure, and I haven't had time to search your old posts to try to find out, but from your recent posts, it sounds like that could be the case.

[Irish Boy]

ok..here goes..and i hope I don't get lambasted for this "inexperience"....(closing eyes and shuddering)...but WHAT IS BACKWHEELING?????
I have seen this term used many times here and do no understand what is meant as when the term is usually used, there isnt an example so I can "see" it...
In an above post, I believe it was jack...but he mentioned an angle where he uses a horse coming from 9f down to 7f..and I believe he mentioned the horse going off at 67-1. Is "back wheeling" using this horse on top of say "all" and then reversing it using "all" on top of this horse???
thanks in advance....
Paul

Backwheeling is keying the horse in the second spot in exactas (or third in tris, etc.) So if you like the 4, but not really to win, you'd go ALL/4 or, say, 1-2-3-7-9/4 if you think the 5, 6 and 8 are tosses. You could then wheel back on top as well, which is what you indicated.

Backwheeling is an effective strategy in races where you don't have a real strong opinion about the winning horse, like a longshot to hit the board, and have an adequate bankroll to afford quite a few whiffs. Still, I'd recommend a regular wheel or small win betting to go with it; nothing is worse than backwheeling a 20-1 shot you like only to have him finish first.

[newtothegame]

Backwheeling is keying the horse in the second spot in exactas (or third in tris, etc.) So if you like the 4, but not really to win, you'd go ALL/4 or, say, 1-2-3-7-9/4 if you think the 5, 6 and 8 are tosses. You could then wheel back on top as well, which is what you indicated.

Backwheeling is an effective strategy in races where you don't have a real strong opinion about the winning horse, like a longshot to hit the board, and have an adequate bankroll to afford quite a few whiffs. Still, I'd recommend a regular wheel or small win betting to go with it; nothing is worse than backwheeling a 20-1 shot you like only to have him finish first.


Ok thanks...makes a bit better sense now....

[Hajck Hillstrom]

In the race illustrated earlier, it was an 8 horse field. A $1 exacta wheel with the :7: on top would cost $7 with every other entrant in the race. The $1 backwheel would read ALL to the :7:. This $14 wager would have yielded you a net profit of $394.

[newtothegame]

In the race illustrated earlier, it was an 8 horse field. A $1 exacta wheel with the :7: on top would cost $7 with every other entrant in the race. The $1 backwheel would read ALL to the :7:. This $14 wager would have yielded you a net profit of $394.

Got it!!! Thanks again for the responses.

[Nitro]

that was a hell of a lot of bs just to redboard about being pleasantly surprised!...that horse was running in the race regardless of the scratches and regardless of track condition Sorry I didn’t high-light my “pleasant surprise” in RED! And as I mentioned “One man’s gold is another man’s garbage”. In that same respect you’re comment is loaded with subjective nonsense that I would personally consider absolute “garbage”. Comments like these go well beyond red-boarding, because they insult the intelligence of any player with even some basic knowledge. (They’re just what any newcomer needs to read).
I’d like you to try and explain how you know that the track condition didn’t affect the running of that race and help that horse to win. And if you really believe that the scratch of IWR didn’t change the composure (and probable outcome) of the race then I’m wondering what your level of experience really is, particularly when dealing with “off” tracks.

Better yet, spare us the explanation and I'll give you the benfit of doubt. Lets all watch and see how your “running horse” performs on a fast track against similar competition (and maybe even a filly or better yet IWR!).

Congrats to Nitro...
In a thread with Redboarders in the title, that may be the longest redboard post in history. Thanks! That made my day! Next time I’ll high-light it in RED just for the envious numbers guys. But do me a favor, before you accept any congratulatory accolades yourself, why don’t you tell everyone why you felt this horse was such a standout based on your extraordinary pace figures. Sorry, I never saw them posted before the derby, or a justification for playing the winner based exclusively on their merits particularly when compared to those of the other entries. Wanna’ talk about red-boarding?!

It’s funny though how a simple explanation and some basic reasoning for a play (as illogical as it might have seemed) goes under the skin and right over the heads of some who claim to know so much about this game. Ironically the open-minded newcomer was intelligent enough to realize that I was simply offering a personal account of what happened in order to share some information. I certainly wasn’t looking for a pat on the back from anyone around here. As far as I’m concerned this is a very personal game, and any rewards that I earn are more then enough to satisfy my ego.

I must say of the successful players I’ve been lucky to know:
I don’t know of one who could come on here and “explain” how or why they are successful. In every case there are so many subtle aspects to what they do I don’t know how they could summarize it in words. Unfortunately; or maybe fortunately its not X + Y = Z in my experience. It’s often year’s worth of trial and error, which must be painfully gone through before you can (maybe) squeeze a profit from this brutal game. Dan to a certain degree I can go along with your comments, but to put it in proper perspective I think you also have to consider the mentality of younger generation today. It seems at least to me that we live in a world of convenience and those seeking instant gratification. Why would anyone with that type of mentality want to endure the rigors of learning this game (or any other) from the ground up? Does anyone ever wonder why the touts in many sporting games are successful? It’s because those they’re touting could care less about understanding how to go for it on their own. They’ve either lost a lot trying or just enjoy the action.

I think any new player should test the waters first to see if they really enjoy it. Once that hurdle is crossed the shear desire to learn more about the game will follow naturally. It’s then a question of which direction the new player wants to take their game in order to become more successful. Somewhere along the line decisions have to made as to what level of player they want to become. Some at that point might even want to consider the familiar structures of goal setting. The biggest obstacle that a player must eventually come to grips with is understanding the discipline that’s required to reach each level and how to sustain that self-control in order to maintain it.

As far as posting an individual’s explanation for a “success” story goes, I think it’s pretty obvious why someone would prefer publishing it in a book rather then posting it on a forum. There’s no grief! The book doesn’t have an opportunity to talk back and besides the reader has to pay to read the material. So the author is already ahead of the game! Even if the explanation was posted and sound. How many of those with the “I want to do it my way” mentalities would even bother to heed its words anyway? They probably wouldn’t want any part of it, especially after the cynical losers had their opportunity to rip it apart. After all, how could they possibly believe that someone else is even remotely successful when they aren’t? Besides, why would someone who is in that position want to reveal the paths to their success to the entire horseracing world? :confused:
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[newtothegame]

:bang:

The above is almost exactly what I was referring to.. And this is not just nitros post. Now I am not sure who nitro is...for that matter, I don't know none of you all except in the context of your post. Hmmmm Redboarding....ok here is my take on it. It is rather rude if you come here AFTER the fact and "toss it in peoples faces" as in " I had it I had it..and you all are terrible". Uncalled for!! But, I don't see that in Nitro's original post. I see a post that gave some INSIGHT to how he was pleasantly surprised. I think he took the time to explain how he arrived at each step of his decision (which is more then I could say for many of the redboarders). I didnt look at the end results of his post. Rather I looked at how he arrived at certain conclusions (his explanations). And for those I am appreciative. Honestly, redboarding doesnt bother me and I don't understand why it should bother anyone else. If a person needs to tell a lie (redboard in dishonesty as many here have suggested), then I really feel sorry for that person. But if I can glean just a bit of information that I didnt have previously, then I have obtained just what I need (which is more INFORMATION for me). The earlier poster who mentioned the 9f to 7f angle...who didnt everyone give him grief over it? After all, it was AFTER the fact!!! Isnt that Redboarding?? And this is NO WAY NO HOW A knock towards him, I AM GREATLY FOR ANOTHER BIT OF INFORMATION (even if I did have to ask what backwheeling was lol).
But look at the mentality....two or three posters jump right on NITRO for his.
And here I thought this was "THE SPORT OF KINGS"....

[dav4463]

I learn a lot from redboarding. I can look back and see what I missed and when it comes up again and again....I will stop missing.

[cj]

Thanks! That made my day! Next time I’ll high-light it in RED just for the envious numbers guys. But do me a favor, before you accept any congratulatory accolades yourself, why don’t you tell everyone why you felt this horse was such a standout based on your extraordinary pace figures. Sorry, I never saw them posted before the derby, or a justification for playing the winner based exclusively on their merits particularly when compared to those of the other entries. Wanna’ talk about red-boarding?!

It’s funny though how a simple explanation and some basic reasoning for a play (as illogical as it might have seemed) goes under the skin and right over the heads of some who claim to know so much about this game. Ironically the open-minded newcomer was intelligent enough to realize that I was simply offering a personal account of what happened in order to share some information. I certainly wasn’t looking for a pat on the back from anyone around here. As far as I’m concerned this is a very personal game, and any rewards that I earn are more then enough to satisfy my ego.

.

It is funny, you seemed to have a problem with me because someone congratulated my figures. In that very thread, I said myself I did not play the horse. However, the figures were posted well before the Derby for all to see. Some used them to win money, but unfortunately, I wasn't one of them.

Why do I get the feeling this poster has been here before other another nom de plume?

Your personal account was fine. I just don't get why you had to give me shit before you posted it because someone else started a thread about my figures.

[fmolf]

Sorry I didn’t high-light my “pleasant surprise” in RED! And as I mentioned “One man’s gold is another man’s garbage”. In that same respect you’re comment is loaded with subjective nonsense that I would personally consider absolute “garbage”. Comments like these go well beyond red-boarding, because they insult the intelligence of any player with even some basic knowledge. (They’re just what any newcomer needs to read).
I’d like you to try and explain how you know that the track condition didn’t affect the running of that race and help that horse to win. And if you really believe that the scratch of IWR didn’t change the composure (and probable outcome) of the race then I’m wondering what your level of experience really is, particularly when dealing with “off” tracks.

Better yet, spare us the explanation and I'll give you the benfit of doubt. Lets all watch and see how your “running horse” performs on a fast track against similar competition (and maybe even a filly or better yet IWR!).
Thanks! That made my day! Next time I’ll high-light it in RED just for the envious numbers guys. But do me a favor, before you accept any congratulatory accolades yourself, why don’t you tell everyone why you felt this horse was such a standout based on your extraordinary pace figures. Sorry, I never saw them posted before the derby, or a justification for playing the winner based exclusively on their merits particularly when compared to those of the other entries. Wanna’ talk about red-boarding?!

It’s funny though how a simple explanation and some basic reasoning for a play (as illogical as it might have seemed) goes under the skin and right over the heads of some who claim to know so much about this game. Ironically the open-minded newcomer was intelligent enough to realize that I was simply offering a personal account of what happened in order to share some information. I certainly wasn’t looking for a pat on the back from anyone around here. As far as I’m concerned this is a very personal game, and any rewards that I earn are more then enough to satisfy my ego.
Dan to a certain degree I can go along with your comments, but to put it in proper perspective I think you also have to consider the mentality of younger generation today. It seems at least to me that we live in a world of convenience and those seeking instant gratification. Why would anyone with that type of mentality want to endure the rigors of learning this game (or any other) from the ground up? Does anyone ever wonder why the touts in many sporting games are successful? It’s because those they’re touting could care less about understanding how to go for it on their own. They’ve either lost a lot trying or just enjoy the action.

I think any new player should test the waters first to see if they really enjoy it. Once that hurdle is crossed the shear desire to learn more about the game will follow naturally. It’s then a question of which direction the new player wants to take their game in order to become more successful. Somewhere along the line decisions have to made as to what level of player they want to become. Some at that point might even want to consider the familiar structures of goal setting. The biggest obstacle that a player must eventually come to grips with is understanding the discipline that’s required to reach each level and how to sustain that self-control in order to maintain it.

As far as posting an individual’s explanation for a “success” story goes, I think it’s pretty obvious why someone would prefer publishing it in a book rather then posting it on a forum. There’s no grief! The book doesn’t have an opportunity to talk back and besides the reader has to pay to read the material. So the author is already ahead of the game! Even if the explanation was posted and sound. How many of those with the “I want to do it my way” mentalities would even bother to heed its words anyway? They probably wouldn’t want any part of it, especially after the cynical losers had their opportunity to rip it apart. After all, how could they possibly believe that someone else is even remotely successful when they aren’t? Besides, why would someone who is in that position want to reveal the paths to their success to the entire horseracing world? :confused:
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then you really needn't have bothered us with the particularly long winded account of how you were pleasantly surprised and just given us your theory and elimination rules for a chaos race If you did not want accolades....i personally have enough discipline on a daily basis that i do not make any wagers on off tracks....i did bet the derby because it is the derby...if you were referring to me i have never been on any other forums under another name nor will i ever need to be!

[riskman]

then you really needn't have bothered us with the particularly long winded account of how you were pleasantly surprised and just given us your theory and elimination rules for a chaos race If you did not want accolades....i personally have enough discipline on a daily basis that i do not make any wagers on off tracks....i did bet the derby because it is the derby...if you were referring to me i have never been on any other forums under another name nor will i ever need to be!

You are off base. This was a thing between --CJ and Nitro as outlined in post#69.
What does discipline have to do with wagering on wet tracks? If your records indicate you do poorly on wet tracks than I could accept your statement. There are opportunities when races are taken off the turf and/or the track comes up wet.

I do not think Nitro was referring to you "under another name"--go back to CJ post 69. Of course, I could be confused--in that case ..pull the net over me.

[riskman]

To try to address your original post that started this thread more relevantly, I feel like I need to know where you're coming from a little better, especially regarding the following:

Do you consider yourself more of an angle player? ...One who mostly looks for profitable roi situations in terms of single or multiple factors that don't involve fundamentals i.e., speed, pace, form cycles?

And do you always make your selections/"decisions" based only upon this info?
How much emphasis do you put on "fundamentals"?

I'm not sure, and I haven't had time to search your old posts to try to find out, but from your recent posts, it sounds like that could be the case.

Mike A. is thinking the same as me. Hope InFront answers this post.

In previous posts on this subject, Ranchwest passed on to InFront some short and sweet advice.


"Every race is a new puzzle. Big track or small track, winners or non-winners, young horses or old horses, sprints or routes, on and on.

Races are won one at a time."

[fmolf]

You are off base. This was a thing between --CJ and Nitro as outlined in post#69.
What does discipline have to do with wagering on wet tracks? If your records indicate you do poorly on wet tracks than I could accept your statement. There are opportunities when races are taken off the turf and/or the track comes up wet.

I do not think Nitro was referring to you "under another name"--go back to CJ post 69. Of course, I could be confused--in that case ..pull the net over me.
possibly true but go back further to post #66...i may be the one confused but i think he was pointing at both of us

[riskman]

possibly true but go back further to post #66...i may be the one confused but i think he was pointing at both of us

In post#69 CJ said this in comment to Nitro post:
"Why do I get the feeling this poster has been here before other another nom de plume?"

This was not meant for you!

Originally Posted by fmolf
that was a hell of a lot of bs just to redboard about being pleasantly surprised!...that horse was running in the race regardless of the scratches and regardless of track condition

This is NITRO answer to your comment above:

Originally Posted by Nitro
Sorry I didn’t high-light my “pleasant surprise” in RED! And as I mentioned “One man’s gold is another man’s garbage”. In that same respect you’re comment is loaded with subjective nonsense that I would personally consider absolute “garbage”. Comments like these go well beyond red-boarding, because they insult the intelligence of any player with even some basic knowledge. (They’re just what any newcomer needs to read).
I’d like you to try and explain how you know that the track condition didn’t affect the running of that race and help that horse to win. And if you really believe that the scratch of IWR didn’t change the composure (and probable outcome) of the race then I’m wondering what your level of experience really is, particularly when dealing with “off” tracks.

IMO NITRO's response is valid.

[fmolf]

In post#69 CJ said this in comment to Nitro post:
"Why do I get the feeling this poster has been here before other another nom de plume?"

This was not meant for you!

Originally Posted by fmolf
that was a hell of a lot of bs just to redboard about being pleasantly surprised!...that horse was running in the race regardless of the scratches and regardless of track condition

This is NITRO answer to your comment above:

Originally Posted by Nitro
Sorry I didn’t high-light my “pleasant surprise” in RED! And as I mentioned “One man’s gold is another man’s garbage”. In that same respect you’re comment is loaded with subjective nonsense that I would personally consider absolute “garbage”. Comments like these go well beyond red-boarding, because they insult the intelligence of any player with even some basic knowledge. (They’re just what any newcomer needs to read).
I’d like you to try and explain how you know that the track condition didn’t affect the running of that race and help that horse to win. And if you really believe that the scratch of IWR didn’t change the composure (and probable outcome) of the race then I’m wondering what your level of experience really is, particularly when dealing with “off” tracks.

IMO NITRO's response is valid.
i will keep his angle in mind when dealing with chaos races...

[Nitro]

It is funny, you seemed to have a problem with me because someone congratulated my figures. In that very thread, I said myself I did not play the horse. However, the figures were posted well before the Derby for all to see. Some used them to win money, but unfortunately, I wasn't one of them.

Why do I get the feeling this poster has been here before other another nom de plume?

Your personal account was fine. I just don't get why you had to give me shit before you posted it because someone else started a thread about my figures. My initial comments involved all of the post-derby comments I read. I only mentioned that the one offering congratulations seemed to be a bit far fetched and amusing along with many others IMO.
I had no problems here with you or anyone else, until you inexplicably accused me of red-boarding first. My so-called historically long red-boarded explanation (as you so kindly put it) was directed toward someone who seemed to have a keen interest in learning what others with some experience might do in a situation when confronted with a race scenario like the recent derby.

I returned fire, only because I felt your comments (as well as fmolf’s) were uncalled for. If you’re going to dish it out then I think you ought to be prepared for whatever comes back, particularly if the reasoning or motivation is questionable. If your intentions are to stifle new posters with demeaning commentary because they offer explanations that differ from the status quo, then I believe you’re defeating the basic purpose for exchanging ideas on an open forum. Personally I believe my original post was harmless and not self-serving in the least. I also think its unfortunate that we have to justify our commentary because some people will inadvertently half-read or misconstrue what’s being written.

[fmolf]

My initial comments involved all of the post-derby comments I read. I only mentioned that the one offering congratulations seemed to be a bit far fetched and amusing along with many others IMO.
I had no problems here with you or anyone else, until you inexplicably accused me of red-boarding first. My so-called historically long red-boarded explanation (as you so kindly put it) was directed toward someone who seemed to have a keen interest in learning what others with some experience might do in a situation when confronted with a race scenario like the recent derby.

I returned fire, only because I felt your comments (as well as fmolf’s) were uncalled for. If you’re going to dish it out then I think you ought to be prepared for whatever comes back, particularly if the reasoning or motivation is questionable. If your intentions are to stifle new posters with demeaning commentary because they offer explanations that differ from the status quo, then I believe you’re defeating the basic purpose for exchanging ideas on an open forum. Personally I believe my original post was harmless and not self-serving in the least. I also think its unfortunate that we have to justify our commentary because some people will inadvertently half-read or misconstrue what’s being written.
i have thick skin as i am sure you do also .... just like on my job i take none of this personally i hope you do not as well

[PaceAdvantage]

If your intentions are to stifle new posters with demeaning commentary because they offer explanations that differ from the status quo, then I believe you’re defeating the basic purpose for exchanging ideas on an open forum.Please explain what you believe to be the status quo.

[Nitro]

Please explain what you believe to be the status quo.I would say that any comment reflecting “the status quo” (in the context of posting information about how a race is analyzed or played) would be indicative of how a majority on any horseracing forum might view or accept that comment from the perspective of using the most popular and accepted handicapping techniques. In contrast, my original comment on this thread included a simple technique that I’ve personally found to be very useful at times. Based on some of the responses (and as I suggested) it probably was a bit out in left field for some, but sometimes in this game you have to think “outside the box”, particularly when confronted with a difficult race.

I might add that whenever a race environment presents a confounding scenario for a predictable outcome, it usually results in a lucrative return and a good motive for playing it. This is primarily because the most popular techniques are not flexible or creative enough to deal with these situations.

The irony is that this statement would probably meet the “status quo”, but any response that seems implausible, yet successfully handles these situations might not be!