Simple angle that would've won the Derby

[dav4463]

I read somewhere....(I think it was the Cramer-Olmstead Report a few years back) that some of the most dangerous horses are horses in their 3rd race off a layoff. It talked about horses at Penn National where it was a 12 horse race and 4 horses were in their 3rd race following a layoff and he boxed them for a giant payoff and caught the big winner.

In the Derby, only three horses were in their 3rd race following a layoff.....1 West Side Bernie, 5 Hold Me Back, and 8 Mine That Bird.

Of those, West Side Bernie looked like a bounce candidate leaving only two logical horses......5 Hold Me Back and 8 Mine That Bird.

See how easy it is !!! ;)

[fmolf]

I read somewhere....(I think it was the Cramer-Olmstead Report a few years back) that some of the most dangerous horses are horses in their 3rd race off a layoff. It talked about horses at Penn National where it was a 12 horse race and 4 horses were in their 3rd race following a layoff and he boxed them for a giant payoff and caught the big winner.

In the Derby, only three horses were in their 3rd race following a layoff.....1 West Side Bernie, 5 Hold Me Back, and 8 Mine That Bird.

Of those, West Side Bernie looked like a bounce candidate leaving only two logical horses......5 Hold Me Back and 8 Mine That Bird.

See how easy it is !!! ;)
couple that with our angle and oh my kingdom if i could learn to simplify!!! :bang:

[turfbar]

The 3rd start off layoff has some parameters to it, time parameters , MTB is coming off a over 31 day layoff , so he really doesn't fill the bill as 3start off layoff.


Turfbar

[The Judge]

If we look at the horses with the most wins here is what we get #2 Musket Man 5 /6, #16 Pioneerof the Nile 5/8, # 19 Desert Party 4/6, #6Friesan Fire 4/7,#8 Mine That Bird,and 4/8,#11 Chocolate Candy 4/9.

Order of Finish
#1) Mind That Bird
#2) Pioneerof the Nile
#3) Musket Man
#5) Chocolate Candy
#14) Desert Party
#18)Friesan Fire

Not bad for no handicapping its easy after the race is over.

[fiveouttasix]

I think the 3rd start off the Lay-off angle works best when the Lay-off is more than 90 days, Also 2 year old to 3 year old, this allows for grow up potential.

[Wizard of Odds]

...which was right there in the DRF notes...

I saw this before the race and NO, I did not bet the horse...I didn't bet at all...for me the Derby is unbettable

[cj]

The horse laid off from the end of October to the end of February, 4 months, now was running the 3rd time without a break. I don't consider 30 days or so a break the way horses are handled today, especially stakes horses. He was certainly 3rd off the layoff in my book.

[Bruddah]

I have been marking a horse's PP's with the 3rd race after a lay off as POLO since 1965. I underline it's 30+ day break and write POLO beside it. POLO means PEAKING Off the LAY OFF. It's just a quick personal way of identifying those horses which may be peaking. I did this on this years Derby PP's but ignored it for the Bird. I remember thinking, "this horse would have to have a rocket up his A$$ to win this race". Actually, the only thing I liked about the Bird was that Borel was up. However, I never thought even Borel could move the horse up enough to hit the board. :bang: :bang:

[rokitman]

I have a very simple method that would have won the Derby. Play number 8 every race.

[SMOO]

I have a very simple method that would have won the Derby. Play number 8 every race.
Play only odd numbered races and you double your ROI.

[rokitman]

Play only odd numbered races and you double your ROI.
Good thinkin.

I can't believe that godd made it so obvious that he would win and I didn't notice. It was May 2! 8-(5+2)=1. DUH!

And he had a big pace fig.

[turfbar]

OK for arguments sake ,lets use my time parameters, not cj's, I have 6 horses who are 3rd off the layoff running in the DERBY, they are


West Side Bernie
Advice
Hold me Back
Papa Clem
Pioneer
Nowhere to Hide

then CJ says that Mine that Bird fits a 3rd off layoff, so that makes 7 horses who are 3rd off the layoff. How do you know which one to bet ?


Turfbar

[cj's dad]

OK for arguments sake ,lets use my time parameters, not cj's, I have 6 horses who are 3rd off the layoff running in the DERBY, they are


West Side Bernie
Advice
Hold me Back
Papa Clem
Pioneer
Nowhere to Hide

then CJ says that Mine that Bird fits a 3rd off layoff, so that makes 7 horses who are 3rd off the layoff. How do you know which one to bet ?


Turfbar

You don't -that's why MTB paid $103

[turfbar]

You don't -that's why MTB paid $103

Thanx for the translation


Turfbar

[KingChas]

I read somewhere....(I think it was the Cramer-Olmstead Report a few years back) that some of the most dangerous horses are horses in their 3rd race off a layoff. It talked about horses at Penn National where it was a 12 horse race and 4 horses were in their 3rd race following a layoff and he boxed them for a giant payoff and caught the big winner.



See how easy it is !!! ;)

If Mine that Bird was entered at Penn National I would have been all over him!

But the Kentucky Derby, and add the Preakness,no way. ;)