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View Full Version : Does he have a shot? Let's make it public


JustRalph
05-04-2009, 03:11 PM
Just for the fun of it.........

A poll on whether MTB has a shot in the Preakness............maybe a little early to vote.......... not sure all the contenders yet........but we can leave it up for a couple of weeks............

This is a Public Poll

andymays
05-04-2009, 03:14 PM
Just for the fun of it.........

A poll on whether MTB has a shot in the Preakness............maybe a little early to vote.......... not sure all the contenders yet........but we can leave it up for a couple of weeks............

This is a Public Poll


I think if you happened to bet him in the Derby then you should bet him in the Preakness.

The Bird is the word!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZThquH5t0ow

cj
05-04-2009, 03:22 PM
I think if you happened to bet him in the Derby then you should bet him in the Preakness.

The Bird is the word!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZThquH5t0ow

A lot of people said that about Charasmatic.

DJofSD
05-04-2009, 03:53 PM
I have not a clue.

Tell me the weather. Tell me who is he running against. Will there be any "fresh faces" entered?

Canadian
05-04-2009, 03:56 PM
No he cannot possibly win the Preakness..... He finished 4th in the Sunland Derby and that stake isn't even graded..... plus his bayers number is way to low... and also his trainer has a low win percentage. So it's impossible.

cmoore
05-04-2009, 04:00 PM
No he cannot possibly win the Preakness..... He finished 4th in the Sunland Derby and that stake isn't even graded..... plus his bayers number is way to low... and also his trainer has a low win percentage. So it's impossible.

Nothing in horse racing is impossible...

SmartyLane
05-04-2009, 04:36 PM
It would be cool if he could...........gonna be tough and the contenders coming to the preakness are going to be fresh........

Big Drama will be a beast
Mr. Fantasy will be tough
POTN may go so you know he'll be in the mix
Papa Clem will be tough

just to name a few. Will have to set up for him again, but continue with the running style of the derby and heck why not........go get'em MTB

W2G
05-04-2009, 04:42 PM
Sure The Bird has a shot. Strong two-year-old foundation may serve him well running back in 2 weeks. Competition looks iffy as all the horses that have run big figs like IWR are falling apart. Nile will run his race, which may or may not be good enough. Just have to see who else shows up.

kyle2227
05-04-2009, 04:51 PM
were all going to make big money when he goes off the favorite and runs out. big big money

Relwob Owner
05-04-2009, 04:57 PM
were all going to make big money when he goes off the favorite and runs out. big big money


I would bet you 10 million dollars(if I had it) he wont be the favorite....5 or 6 to 1 would be my guess

ArlJim78
05-04-2009, 05:17 PM
he only ran for about 4 furlongs in the derby, and that was enough, but he's not going to be able to work out that same scenario in Md. If its a fast track I say he's runs out, if it's sloppy or muddy, he might show up late for part of it.

newtothegame
05-04-2009, 05:36 PM
No he cannot possibly win the Preakness..... He finished 4th in the Sunland Derby and that stake isn't even graded..... plus his bayers number is way to low... and also his trainer has a low win percentage. So it's impossible.


:lol: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Love the sarcasm......if thats what it was??? lol

fmolf
05-04-2009, 05:39 PM
No he cannot possibly win the Preakness..... He finished 4th in the Sunland Derby and that stake isn't even graded..... plus his bayers number is way to low... and also his trainer has a low win percentage. So it's impossible.
i think he will run up the track..... it was impossible for him to win the derby!!!!! :bang:

fmolf
05-04-2009, 05:47 PM
were all going to make big money when he goes off the favorite and runs out. big big money
i certainly hope so i am hoping he is about 5/2 or lower looking for papa clem to be 4/1 or higher for a good score!

Relwob Owner
05-04-2009, 05:50 PM
i certainly hope so i am hoping he is about 5/2 or lower looking for papa clem to be 4/1 or higher for a good score!


I am with you on Papa Clem(we agree two times in two days???) but I think we will be staring down abt 5 to 2, especially if POTN doesnt come....

fmolf
05-04-2009, 06:21 PM
I am with you on Papa Clem(we agree two times in two days???) but I think we will be staring down abt 5 to 2, especially if POTN doesnt come....
unfortunately now thats 3 times! :D .....we need to come up with the horse thats gonna lug in for value underneath!

fmolf
05-04-2009, 06:29 PM
i would like to see the connections of papa clem put rose up on him bejarano is a polyfornia rider i like a rider with local knowledge...how do you feel owner about that?

Bruddah
05-04-2009, 06:45 PM
If this years running of the Ky Derby didn't reaffirm that anyone lined up in the Gate has a chance, then take your F-ing blinkers off! That is, anyone in the starting gate besides me. I can't get the distance anymore. :( :lol:

GaryG
05-04-2009, 06:55 PM
As strong as he looked down the lane there is no way to say he has no chance. He shaded :24 for the final quarter.

Relwob Owner
05-04-2009, 07:00 PM
unfortunately now thats 3 times! :D .....we need to come up with the horse thats gonna lug in for value underneath!


I know....maybe the connections of MTB are gonna grow on people and people will bet him down a bit....I would love to see POTN go because he would take some dough and could even be lower than PC, who I think ran a much better race in the Derby....

fmolf
05-04-2009, 07:49 PM
I know....maybe the connections of MTB are gonna grow on people and people will bet him down a bit....I would love to see POTN go because he would take some dough and could even be lower than PC, who I think ran a much better race in the Derby....
i think hull might be going to baltimore he may also take some of the wise guy money....they should enter kelly leak..... after what happened in the derby... i would

Relwob Owner
05-04-2009, 08:02 PM
i think hull might be going to baltimore he may also take some of the wise guy money....they should enter kelly leak..... after what happened in the derby... i would


Good...I think you are right....if memory serves me correctly, isnt Kelly Leak a turf/poly horse? I just remember him disappointing in Cal a few times but I could be wrong.....

senortout
05-04-2009, 08:43 PM
Nothing in horse racing is impossible...

Methinks Canadian is being a tad sarcastic friends..

Lateralus
05-04-2009, 09:01 PM
As strong as he looked down the lane there is no way to say he has no chance. He shaded :24 for the final quarter.

Exactly what I was thinking... he didn't just WIN the Derby, he won impressively. Wasn't it damn near 7 lengths? He was much the best in the Derby.

What I would like to know however is, how does a horse improve THAT much between a 4th place finish at the Sunland Derby and the Kentucky Derby? :confused: I know all horses can improve and significantly, especially younger horses who can make big leaps forward from race to race. But this one wasn't just a giant leap forward, it was a Grand Canyon sized leap. The only thing I can think is that the connections knew they had a true top contender on their hands so they intentionally made him look weak to go after a giant score in the mutual pools on a day when huge sums could be bet across the board without affecting the prices much. Heck, for less than $20K they could bet him with "all" in the superfecta in all four slots and make a score no matter where he came in, and this year it was $557K. Not to mention that very few would be using him in the pick 3's and pick 4. If they really liked his chances they could have cleaned up by making him look weak prior to the Derby. Obviously the win money is huge but they could still clean up tidily with him in 2/3/4 slot on all the exotics, expecting him to hit the board but not necessarily win.

cmoore
05-04-2009, 09:23 PM
Ya, your right..He was..It's all good Canadian..

plainolebill
05-04-2009, 10:27 PM
As strong as he looked down the lane there is no way to say he has no chance. He shaded :24 for the final quarter.

I think it was closer to :23, he made the rest of them look like they were taking a coffee break. :D

nijinski
05-05-2009, 12:32 AM
I was very impressed with both MTB and Borel but I have a question for any
of the Pro's here.Or anyone who could comment.
MTB wore front wraps in his two races at Sunland. Lost both. Could mean nothing or perhaps sore shins, ankles?
Of course this was not reflected Saturday in his performance but if he shows up ai the Preakness with them ,any concerns?

kenwoodallpromos
05-05-2009, 02:14 AM
I was very impressed with both MTB and Borel but I have a question for any
of the Pro's here.Or anyone who could comment.
MTB wore front wraps in his two races at Sunland. Lost both. Could mean nothing or perhaps sore shins, ankles?
Of course this was not reflected Saturday in his performance but if he shows up ai the Preakness with them ,any concerns?
Since his previous were at a fake track, maybe they were precautions.
By the way- his sire's dam and line are almost all stamina horses, and 6 of 8 Unbridled's greats are all stamina.

Burls
05-05-2009, 03:50 AM
At this point, I think I'd have to include hime in the exotics.
I'm really hoping his half-brother Summer Bird offers some value and is able to hit the board in the Preakness.

ManeMediaMogul
05-05-2009, 06:37 AM
i would like to see the connections of papa clem put rose up on him bejarano is a polyfornia rider i like a rider with local knowledge...how do you feel owner about that?

Love Jeremy Rose but Bejarano is one of the top five riders in the nation. No way I would take him off in the Preakness.

Robert Fischer
05-05-2009, 09:24 AM
He shouldn't but he got a great workout in Kentucky, cooperated fully and appeared to come out of it well.

If Hull and all the good horses want to go faster than they should he would have a chance. If the good horses have plenty left for the stretch, maybe 3rd or 4th...

Rapid Grey
05-05-2009, 11:40 AM
Not sure but I think Hull is being pointed to the Riva Ridge at Belmont.

46zilzal
05-05-2009, 12:39 PM
This one could be a Charismatic: getting good at precisely the right time

LemonSoupKid
05-05-2009, 01:16 PM
The problem is that Charismatic had last highest Beyer, ran on a fast track, ran on a fast track in the Derby, and ran on a fast track in the Preakness.

Mine that Bird has done none of these ... except maybe the last, which is what we are betting on. That said, I won't discount him, but it depends who comes in and the pace scenario.

fmolf
05-05-2009, 01:48 PM
Love Jeremy Rose but Bejarano is one of the top five riders in the nation. No way I would take him off in the Preakness.
agreed but he does his best work out in polyfornia... something to be said about a rider with intimate knowledge of the track... i agree though i doubt they will take him off... i still am going to stick with him if i get a good price

Cat Thief
05-05-2009, 02:36 PM
That was great. They should play it at the Preakness

Derbyman32
05-05-2009, 05:16 PM
I think if you happened to bet him in the Derby then you should bet him in the Preakness.

The Bird is the word!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZThquH5t0ow


This is probably how the Bird felt after the Derby when it was time to celebrate,

http://www.maniacworld.com/bird-loves-ray-charles.html

GaryG
05-05-2009, 05:52 PM
agreed but he does his best work out in polyfornia... something to be said about a rider with intimate knowledge of the track... i agree though i doubt they will take him off... i still am going to stick with him if i get a good priceHe made his reputation in Kentucky and IS one of the best.....surface is a non-issue here.

fmolf
05-05-2009, 08:51 PM
He made his reputation in Kentucky and IS one of the best.....surface is a non-issue here.
he didn't ride like a man with intimate knowledge of the track

joanied
05-05-2009, 08:57 PM
This is probably how the Bird felt after the Derby when it was time to celebrate,

http://www.maniacworld.com/bird-loves-ray-charles.html

:lol: Fabulous!! And that little 'Bird' did shake a tail feather on Saturday:jump:

GaryG
05-05-2009, 09:08 PM
he didn't ride like a man with intimate knowledge of the trackHe was the leading rider there in 2004 and 2005.

fmolf
05-05-2009, 11:51 PM
He was the leading rider there in 2004 and 2005.
i did not remember ..i hope he gives papa a better ride in the derby!

Robert Fischer
05-06-2009, 07:43 AM
he didn't ride like a man with intimate knowledge of the track
i did not remember ..i hope he gives papa a better ride in the derby!

What are you talking about? Papa Clem had the best trip of all horses not named Mine that Bird. Couldn't have asked for a cleaner, smoother trip.

depalma113
05-06-2009, 08:15 AM
The problem is that Charismatic had last highest Beyer, ran on a fast track, ran on a fast track in the Derby, and ran on a fast track in the Preakness.

Mine that Bird has done none of these ... except maybe the last, which is what we are betting on. That said, I won't discount him, but it depends who comes in and the pace scenario.

Who in the Preakness is going to have a higher last out Beyer than Mine That Bird?

Backwheel
05-06-2009, 09:16 AM
Of course he has a chance,he won the Derby and it's a horse race.

His odds obviously improve if it comes up wet. And so far, it seems a some of the new shooters maybe going 2 turns for the 1st time.

That being said I'd like to see him at 3-1 or 4-1 and catch some nice value elsewhere as I'm not sold yet

fmolf
05-06-2009, 09:46 AM
What are you talking about? Papa Clem had the best trip of all horses not named Mine that Bird. Couldn't have asked for a cleaner, smoother trip.
with bejaranos experience at curchill and the other jocks talking how good the rail was i felt he had a chance to take papa clem their and did not do it...this may hve shut off borels path if other horses potn an mm would have gone down their with him...just my opinion now

Robert Fischer
05-06-2009, 11:20 AM
with bejaranos experience at curchill and the other jocks talking how good the rail was i felt he had a chance to take papa clem their and did not do it...this may hve shut off borels path if other horses potn an mm would have gone down their with him...just my opinion now

That is a good point.
Desormeaux shot up the rail and took that position away.
Bejarano could have maybe forced his way to the rail in tight behind Join in the Dance initially. It may have have been to hard. Good point though, I didn't look at that option.

fmolf
05-06-2009, 11:40 AM
That is a good point.
Desormeaux shot up the rail and took that position away.
Bejarano could have maybe forced his way to the rail in tight behind Join in the Dance initially. It may have have been to hard. Good point though, I didn't look at that option.
everything happens so fast that it is very difficult to tell... i cannot imagine borel getting through along the rail if pincay...cordero ..shoemaker....turcotte ....bailey were in the race.... todays jockeys are not as aggressive as those from the days of my youth!save for borel

i never noticed desormeux

Relwob Owner
05-06-2009, 12:22 PM
everything happens so fast that it is very difficult to tell... i cannot imagine borel getting through along the rail if pincay...cordero ..shoemaker....turcotte ....bailey were in the race.... todays jockeys are not as aggressive as those from the days of my youth!save for borel

i never noticed desormeux


Good points....yeah, Desormeaux fired Hold Me Back up there mid backstretch, I believe and I dont think that helped Papa clem too much.....Bejerano just seemed to have him in a stranglehold the whole race and never seemed comfortable and the horse still ran so game...

Robert Fischer
05-06-2009, 01:56 PM
He got a great result for being a gradeII type of animal. Anyone who included Papa Clem (including me) should be thrilled with the trip he got. Such a smooth trip. Fortunate to take no ill-effects from the collision with Friesan Fire. Maybe if Bejarano had given a far fetched ride, he could have interfered with Kent's move on Hold Me Back, and ultimately Mine That Bird's rail trip, but Clem still had the 2nd best trip other than Mine That Bird.

fmolf
05-06-2009, 02:12 PM
He got a great result for being a gradeII type of animal. Anyone who included Papa Clem (including me) should be thrilled with the trip he got. Such a smooth trip. Fortunate to take no ill-effects from the collision with Friesan Fire. Maybe if Bejarano had given a far fetched ride, he could have interfered with Kent's move on Hold Me Back, and ultimately Mine That Bird's rail trip, but Clem still had the 2nd best trip other than Mine That Bird.
taking a horse five wide with a 1/4 mile to go is not a smooth trip. he was only one length behind the leader potn at that point

fmolf
05-06-2009, 02:14 PM
Good points....yeah, Desormeaux fired Hold Me Back up there mid backstretch, I believe and I dont think that helped Papa clem too much.....Bejerano just seemed to have him in a stranglehold the whole race and never seemed comfortable and the horse still ran so game...
absolutely correct bejarano was caught napping..unaware of what was happening all around him

Robert Fischer
05-06-2009, 02:55 PM
taking a horse five wide with a 1/4 mile to go is not a smooth trip. he was only one length behind the leader potn at that point
You must have been watching a different horse. Papa Clem had the best trip other than Mine That Bird.

Starthttp://img18.imageshack.us/img18/8985/papaclemstart.jpg
1st turnhttp://img10.imageshack.us/img10/5948/papaclem1stturn.jpg
2nd turnhttp://img206.imageshack.us/img206/9597/papaclem2ndtrn.jpg



absolutely correct bejarano was caught napping..unaware of what was happening all around him
Again what the hell are you talking about? Swinging his horse inside to prevent a an unpredictable middle move from Kent Desormeaux at the risk of getting stuck behind Join In the Dance, is a move that was hardly automatic.

JPinMaryland
05-06-2009, 05:58 PM
certainly looks to be in an excellent stalking position there..

fmolf
05-07-2009, 01:47 AM
You must have been watching a different horse. Papa Clem had the best trip other than Mine That Bird.

Starthttp://img18.imageshack.us/img18/8985/papaclemstart.jpg
1st turnhttp://img10.imageshack.us/img10/5948/papaclem1stturn.jpg
2nd turnhttp://img206.imageshack.us/img206/9597/papaclem2ndtrn.jpg




Again what the hell are you talking about? Swinging his horse inside to prevent a an unpredictable middle move from Kent Desormeaux at the risk of getting stuck behind Join In the Dance, is a move that was hardly automatic.coming out of the turn he swung out five wide into the stretch

Bruddah
05-07-2009, 02:45 AM
After looking at the charts and times of the race, I'm not sure if any of these horses except the top 4 can get 1 1/2 miles. It tells me it's going to be a stretch for all of them. I will be looking for another one shot wonder to win the Belmont at a price. (JMHO)

Relwob Owner
05-07-2009, 01:39 PM
You must have been watching a different horse. Papa Clem had the best trip other than Mine That Bird.

Starthttp://img18.imageshack.us/img18/8985/papaclemstart.jpg
1st turnhttp://img10.imageshack.us/img10/5948/papaclem1stturn.jpg
2nd turnhttp://img206.imageshack.us/img206/9597/papaclem2ndtrn.jpg




Again what the hell are you talking about? Swinging his horse inside to prevent a an unpredictable middle move from Kent Desormeaux at the risk of getting stuck behind Join In the Dance, is a move that was hardly automatic.



Then explain why he was off, what proved to be a good rail, enough to let Desormeaux by him? He should have secured his place there right away....

Relwob Owner
05-07-2009, 01:46 PM
You must have been watching a different horse. Papa Clem had the best trip other than Mine That Bird.

Starthttp://img18.imageshack.us/img18/8985/papaclemstart.jpg
1st turnhttp://img10.imageshack.us/img10/5948/papaclem1stturn.jpg
2nd turnhttp://img206.imageshack.us/img206/9597/papaclem2ndtrn.jpg




Again what the hell are you talking about? Swinging his horse inside to prevent a an unpredictable middle move from Kent Desormeaux at the risk of getting stuck behind Join In the Dance, is a move that was hardly automatic.


Your graphic in the backstretch goes against your point....he was in the 3 or 4 path when he could have been right on the rail....plus, worrying about Join the Dance doesnt make too much sense to me because a hole usually opens up directly inside or outside a tiring horse....Borel wasnt too worried about getting caught behind tiring horses and he finished just fine

Relwob Owner
05-07-2009, 01:48 PM
He got a great result for being a gradeII type of animal. Anyone who included Papa Clem (including me) should be thrilled with the trip he got. Such a smooth trip. Fortunate to take no ill-effects from the collision with Friesan Fire. Maybe if Bejarano had given a far fetched ride, he could have interfered with Kent's move on Hold Me Back, and ultimately Mine That Bird's rail trip, but Clem still had the 2nd best trip other than Mine That Bird.

Lastly, Pioneer of the Nile clearly got the 2nd best trip...Gomex never had to strangle the horse like Bejerano did at points during the race, nor did POTN get bumped like Papa Clem did.....

fmolf
05-07-2009, 04:00 PM
Lastly, Pioneer of the Nile clearly got the 2nd best trip...Gomex never had to strangle the horse like Bejerano did at points during the race, nor did POTN get bumped like Papa Clem did.....
not even in the stretch he was five wide in the clubhouse turn!we'll get a better ride in the preakness!

Robert Fischer
05-07-2009, 05:26 PM
:D ok, the gig is up, you guys got me

Relwob Owner
05-07-2009, 05:28 PM
not even in the stretch he was five wide in the clubhouse turn!we'll get a better ride in the preakness!


yep

WinterTriangle
05-11-2009, 04:16 AM
how does a horse improve THAT much between a 4th place finish at the Sunland Derby and the Kentucky Derby? :confused: I know all horses can improve and significantly, especially younger horses who can make big leaps forward from race to race.

The horse is a Canadian champion. He won 4 of 5 starts.

(Maybe somebody Canadian on this board can explain why we don't notice stuff like this if it doesn't happen in the US?)

Anyway---It's cool in Canada. Sunland is hot, the average temp is about 81 degrees.

It was cool in KY on Derby Day. MTB liked Canada better than Sunland which is why he did better in Canada and did horrible in the Sunland Derby.

When Belmont was sweltering hot and humid last year, the horses we thought would win, didn't.

JustRalph
05-11-2009, 06:08 AM
At the current exchange rate.............Canadian wins are 1.2 to 1

So he actually has 5.6 wins here, U.S.


I had a 400lb Canadian Girlfriend once.........but she was only 350 American

joanied
05-11-2009, 02:25 PM
justralph...love your avatar...that shot of Calvin makes me smile every time I see it:)

W2G
05-11-2009, 02:32 PM
Anyway---It's cool in Canada. Sunland is hot, the average temp is about 81 degrees.

It was cool in KY on Derby Day. MTB liked Canada better than Sunland which is why he did better in Canada and did horrible in the Sunland Derby.

I remember it being extremely HOT at SA last year during the BC when MTB finished last in the juvy.

cj's dad
05-11-2009, 06:38 PM
Saturday - mid 70's - 30% chance of t/storms

WinterTriangle
05-11-2009, 07:56 PM
Saturday - mid 70's - 30% chance of t/storms

:) thanks cj

fmolf
05-11-2009, 09:51 PM
after the shenanigans his owner tried to pull looks like they do not have any confidence in their little canadian champion!he only beat 25 horses home in canada ...5 per race....so how many two yr olds were their racing in canada last year?

kyle2227
05-11-2009, 10:46 PM
were all gonna make big money when mtb runs out big big money

WinterTriangle
05-12-2009, 04:18 AM
were all gonna make big money when mtb runs out big big money

I have him in my superfecta.

WinterTriangle
05-12-2009, 04:52 AM
Okay, I may as well fess up.

I LIKE this little horse.

His birthday today. I was looking at photos of him, that's a darn focussed, curious and intelligent looking horse. You can look in his eye and see that.

joanied
05-12-2009, 04:53 PM
Saturday - mid 70's - 30% chance of t/storms

Hope the weather forecast is more accurate than the one's we get for my part of the country...I think everyone, except Woolley, is wanting a dry track and good weather...dry, dry, dry...my mantra for the next few days :)

joanied
05-12-2009, 05:02 PM
Okay, I may as well fess up.

I LIKE this little horse.

His birthday today. I was looking at photos of him, that's a darn focussed, curious and intelligent looking horse. You can look in his eye and see that.

WT...I saw some photos of him too..he's a super looking little dude and your description is well put...just read somewhere he was a handful as a youngster...rearing, striking, biting...they really didn't have much choice but to geld him...after that, he settled down and get serious about his job...pretty cool story.

Happy Birthday, little Bird:)

Usually by Preakness time, I have my horses picked and I'm all set...but hell, I am as confused and undecided now as I was before the Derby...I still love Pioneer, FF, RA, Papa Clem, MTB (the horse, not his owner)...aaarrrggghhh...
our boy FF is going...put in a nice work, and needless to say, his Derby is a toss...I'm looking foward to the post postion draw tomorrow...guess then it'll be put up or shut up:D

Greyfox
05-15-2009, 11:08 AM
His birthday today. I was looking at photos of him, that's a darn focussed, curious and intelligent looking horse. You can look in his eye and see that.

WT- can you really look in a horse's eye and see he's intelligent? If so, that's a gift that I don't have.

oddsmaven
05-15-2009, 03:41 PM
I didn't vote though "sure he does" would have to be it...I think the Derby was flukish but allow that he may suddenly be better than I thought..certainly not convinced by this Canada Horse of the Year category jive...the truth seems to be there was zilch in the way of standouts last year north of the border.