Pioneer of the Nile: Vindicated or Exposed?

[Onion Monster]

Does his place performance make him the best of this crop or a mud/dirt flop?

[MNslappy]

I was impressed. He was close to the pace the whole way and finished the best of the rest. That said, there was no Quality Road, no I Want Revenge, Dunkirk stumbled and had a rough trip, Friesan Fire got stepped on and bled.....virtually none of the other horses considered to be the best of the lot ran like they've shown they're capable of. Combine that with the off track and well, I dont know how much was really answered in this race as far as POTN goes. I think I like Papa Clem and Musket Man for leg 2 more than I like POTN, but we'll see how they all come out of it.

[toussaud]

he actually ran exactly like I thought he would ran. he ran a 95 beyer speed figure.

He really didnt' run the race of his life or move up. he ran his race, and it was, for variring reasons, good enough to get 2nd today.

Had IWR, QR ran and ran their race, he finished 4th or 5th. and let's not forget, you could have very well called an inquiry on POTN and he could have been 4th anyway.

I think the Beyers actually help MTB's case for the race not being a fluke beucase beside FF and dunkirk not having the best of trips, the race was one of the most formful derbies I've seen figure wise as far as what horses usually run and what they ran today.

[JustRalph]

He ran better than I thought........... he would. But a one race snapshot is not enough.............still some racing to go this year...........

[miesque]

I personally think it vindicated him, especially considering the surface and kickback was something totally different to anything he had experienced before and I also think the argument can be made that if he had Borel aboard instead of Gomez yesterday that he would have won because it was Borel's savvy "in the zone" on Mine That Bird that the made the difference. I was actually a bit concerned prior to the race because it appeared to me that Gomez was not having the best of days.

I am curious whether they go to the Preakness or Belmont and I would think the Belmont is a better fit. Or they could just skip both and head back to California and with the BC in So Cal this year there is an incentive to do that later.

[joanied]

I personally think it vindicated him, especially considering the surface and kickback was something totally different to anything he had experienced before and I also think the argument can be made that if he had Borel aboard instead of Gomez yesterday that he would have won because it was Borel's savvy "in the zone" on Mine That Bird that the made the difference. I was actually a bit concerned prior to the race because it appeared to me that Gomez was not having the best of days.

I am curious whether they go to the Preakness or Belmont and I would think the Belmont is a better fit. Or they could just skip both and head back to California and with the BC in So Cal this year there is an incentive to do that later.

I have to agree with you...Pioneer was completely out of his element and ran a great race...and I was so thrilled to get Gomez on him, much to my dismay...I also think if Pioneer had been on the rail...it would have at least been closer at the wire...Gomez disappointed me...actually the rail would have thrown a lot less mud in his face...Calvin was the only one there:)

[Relwob Owner]

I personally think it vindicated him, especially considering the surface and kickback was something totally different to anything he had experienced before and I also think the argument can be made that if he had Borel aboard instead of Gomez yesterday that he would have won because it was Borel's savvy "in the zone" on Mine That Bird that the made the difference. I was actually a bit concerned prior to the race because it appeared to me that Gomez was not having the best of days.

I am curious whether they go to the Preakness or Belmont and I would think the Belmont is a better fit. Or they could just skip both and head back to California and with the BC in So Cal this year there is an incentive to do that later.


Wow. I thought Gomez did a great job getting POTN in position, rating him and firing right on time...especially considering this horse had so many issues being rated and lollygagging before....where is the complaint? Maybe that he went a little wide? Overall, I think a "Borel would have won on him" is a little reactionary...Im happy for Borel but give me Gomez over Borel any day of the week.

[magwell]

VINDICATED he is a good solid race horse

[toussaud]

I don't see how he can be vindicated when he ran no worse or no better on paper than he has ever ran in his life. he ran a 96 beyer in the san felipe, a 95 beyer or so in the SA derby and a 95 beyer in the kentucky derby.

"vindicated" would be him running a plus 100 beyer, and him being "exposed" woulod be him running a high 80ish beyer.

if antyhing he went out there and ran his race.

[Tom]

Vindicated would be running his race on dirt and his race having him second.
He ran wide in and he did something most other contenders did not - he did something.

[gm10]

he ran a creditable race as always
people are blowing this whole synthetic thing out of proportion, most horses show a similar amount of talent on dirt/polytrack
colonel john did the same thing last year, so did many other horses this year

the beyer ratings are just not very accurate on poly, as they aren't for the turf

[Relwob Owner]

I don't see how he can be vindicated when he ran no worse or no better on paper than he has ever ran in his life. he ran a 96 beyer in the san felipe, a 95 beyer or so in the SA derby and a 95 beyer in the kentucky derby.

"vindicated" would be him running a plus 100 beyer, and him being "exposed" woulod be him running a high 80ish beyer.

if antyhing he went out there and ran his race.

What was the winning Derby Beyer?

[Irish Boy]

105

RA got a 108 for the Oaks

[LemonSoupKid]

You all know I had Pioneer and I think, regardless of the lack of speed figure, you have to take some things into consideration: sloppy track-19 horses-gritty performance. He ran a 96? Ok, well, there were 8 horses last race, and 19 in this. Isn't that a better race?

If it hasn't been said, I'll be the first one to say it: I am highly suspicious that Mine that Bird was doped.

That said, I wasn't that impressed with this Derby, I'll admit.

[Relwob Owner]

You all know I had Pioneer and I think, regardless of the lack of speed figure, you have to take some things into consideration: sloppy track-19 horses-gritty performance. He ran a 96? Ok, well, there were 8 horses last race, and 19 in this. Isn't that a better race?

If it hasn't been said, I'll be the first one to say it: I am highly suspicious that Mine that Bird was doped.

That said, I wasn't that impressed with this Derby, I'll admit.

I highly, highly doubt this horse was doped and I think it is a pretty illogical notion. Do you realize the balls it would take to dope this horse in this race? Since they have tightened up, the people at Churchill have put in probably the strictest procedures, outside of NY, seen anywhere If you were going to dope this horse, this wouldnt be the place or time to do it....plus, a horse like MTB winning probably makes the people at Churchill's blood boil so you can be sure they would do every post race test possible to find anything they could.....If the track was fast, I would probably be more suspicious. However, that track was awful and everyone knows that mud creates illogical results all the time....plus, these are frickin horses and it isnt the first or last time a horse will jump up like that in the mud.

[Robert Fischer]

Pioneer ran a decent race. It wasn't good enough to win most derbies. He very nearly won this derby, had Borel's gamble not paid off. None of the horses who had potential to run big (friesan fire,quality road,dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Desert Party) did. Pioneer ran his race.

[fmolf]

Pioneer ran a decent race. It wasn't good enough to win most derbies. He very nearly won this derby, had Borel's gamble not paid off. None of the horses who had potential to run big (friesan fire,quality road,dunkirk, I Want Revenge, Desert Party) did. Pioneer ran his race.
i thought papa clem was second best horse in the race and had potn not drifted out and pushed musket into him causing him to alter his stride and slow down to get fourth he would have finished second...potn did run very well though better than most expected

[Mineshaft]

No doubt Gomez picked the right horse. Dunkirk was lightly raced and was behind other horses in maturation and seasoning. I left him out of my 7 horse trifecta box.

[OFFandRUNNING10]

ill be the first to admit i had my doubts on this horse. i thought he was the fraud of the race to be honest. i put him on my tickets to cover my butt but i still didnt have any faith in him much like i didnt have much faith in colonel john last year. so i have to admit that he ran much better than i thought. i had him coming in around 6-10 area. so as of now he ran past my expectations and will be interested to see what he can do from here on out.

[ghostyapper]

Definitely not exposed. He ran 2nd in a 19 horse field. It was a nice performance for his first time on dirt but I would need to see a couple more dirt races with fair tracks before I can judge his dirt ability

[slewis]

I highly, highly doubt this horse was doped and I think it is a pretty illogical notion. Do you realize the balls it would take to dope this horse in this race? Since they have tightened up, the people at Churchill have put in probably the strictest procedures, outside of NY, seen anywhere If you were going to dope this horse, this wouldnt be the place or time to do it....plus, a horse like MTB winning probably makes the people at Churchill's blood boil so you can be sure they would do every post race test possible to find anything they could.....If the track was fast, I would probably be more suspicious. However, that track was awful and everyone knows that mud creates illogical results all the time....plus, these are frickin horses and it isnt the first or last time a horse will jump up like that in the mud.


Yeah, good point...

and frickin isn't a word... (payback on the spelling and grammar)

[JPinMaryland]

I say vindicated. Originally I was going to toss him on the basis of polytrack and weak Calif. fields. But then I heard the horse was moving really well on the CD surface and then I had to admit he was very consistent with all those wins and finally it didnt appear he was winning with those ugly, last second moves so common on poly but rather sustained drives. E.g some of these horses coming off poly, they won with moves in the last hundred yards, you cant realy do that on dirt, I think Gen Quarters is one example of that.

[fmolf]

I say vindicated. Originally I was going to toss him on the basis of polytrack and weak Calif. fields. But then I heard the horse was moving really well on the CD surface and then I had to admit he was very consistent with all those wins and finally it didnt appear he was winning with those ugly, last second moves so common on poly but rather sustained drives. E.g some of these horses coming off poly, they won with moves in the last hundred yards, you cant realy do that on dirt, I think Gen Quarters is one example of that.
i put pioneer on my ticket because of baffert and left off all the pletcher horses ...and will continue to do so until he proves he can get one to run in the derby!... another tidbit 16 of the 18 other horses in the derby had tomlinsons for off tracks higher than mtb's....so tell me again how this horse was bred to be a mudder!

[toussaud]

i put pioneer on my ticket because of baffert and left off all the pletcher horses ...and will continue to do so until he proves he can get one to run in the derby!... another tidbit 16 of the 18 other horses in the derby had tomlinsons for off tracks higher than mtb's....so tell me again how this horse was bred to be a mudder!
this is what I intended to do as far as pletcher goes, but the defections threw a monkey wrench in everything.

[jwel14]

I feel that Pioneer did a great job. The derby is the one race, more than any other, that just about any horse can win. With 20 horses , this one 19, some horses getting bad post positions. getting bumped,being boxed in, Pioneer had the 16th post position. The other 3 in the Superfecta had, the 2, 7, and 8th positions. It's like a huge log jam. With all that, the track was sloppy. Pioneer will be the one to beat in the Preakness.

[GregReinhart]

From the three-eighths pole to the quarter pole, I was absolutely sure PoTN was going to win easily. Garrett appeared from his body language that he had a ton of horse under him and wasn't even asking him yet. In fact, he strolled right up to the leader and took over easily at the head of the lane.

I'm not sure even if he'd dropped back down to the rail (he tried that with Game Face in the Humana Distaff and she didn't gain a step) that it would've mattered as the leader crushed him once clear.