More shocking?

[W2G]

Don't rush to judgment. Consider the competition, the pace, the conditions.

[toussaud]

giacomo.


no one really stood out today becuase of the 2 big defections... in 2006 there were standouts, they just got beat fair and square. no bad track, no nothing.

[ghostyapper]

Without a doubt Mine that Bird. Giacomo, a dead closer, won in a photo after a wicked pace. Mine that Bird won by a wider margin than Barbaro. Giacomo finished a close 4th in the SA derby, mtb finished 4th in the sunland derby.

[Relwob Owner]

Don't rush to judgment. Consider the competition, the pace, the conditions.

Easily MTB....especially because of the connections....that trainer's stats or lack thereof make it not even close IMHO

[ryesteve]

Without a doubt Mine that Bird.
Ditto. Mine That Bird is one of those "joke" horses you see every year, and you wonder why the connections are so hyped to visit the Derby just to see their horse run 18th. No one ever said Giacomo didn't belong in the race. He just looked like an established 2nd tier horse.

[Relwob Owner]

giacomo.


no one really stood out today becuase of the 2 big defections... in 2006 there were standouts, they just got beat fair and square. no bad track, no nothing.


Wasnt 2006 Barabaro? i think Giacamo was 2005 wasnt it?

[sandpit]

Giacomo at least had the credentials of a solid trainer and finishing in the top 3 in a couple of graded stakes races, and also was no more than 3-1 in any of his 3 Derby prep races. If he hadn't finished behind General John B in the SA Derby, he would have been no more than 10-1 in KY.

Mine That Bird was a Canadian champ with a lifetime high Beyer of 81...that wouldn't win most entry level allowance races at any major track in the country.

[DeanT]

Since I bet Giacomo in the futures for like $20 way back when; and conversely if you asked me this January who Mine that Bird was, I would have answered "don't know; a 5 claimer at Penn I think I bet once while drunk", the answer is an easy one for me :)

[Relwob Owner]

Don't rush to judgment. Consider the competition, the pace, the conditions.


here is another factor...no offense to these owners and I am very jealous of them and happy for them---however, when looking at their moves with this horse, one wouldnt predict success-they apparently bought the horse late last year for 400K which seems like a huge amount-then, they gave him to this trainer whose stats are astonishing....compare this owner trainer combo with Moss and Sherrifs.... not even close and that is another reason it is a bigger upset

[LemonSoupKid]

I've said before and I'll say it again: Top to bottom, Giacomo's win was MUCH more unlikely than I've ever seen. Giacomo was a decent horse at best. On a fast track, him winning that race was a joke. The race was broken down and it fell into his lap. Someone had to be in the right place at the right time.

He got beat by a combined 27.5 lengths in the next two races. This race was slop with top two favorites defecting and good california first timers in mud ...

Next question.

[Relwob Owner]

I've said before and I'll say it again: Top to bottom, Giacomo's win was MUCH more unlikely than I've ever seen. Giacomo was a decent horse at best. On a fast track, him winning that race was a joke. The race was broken down and it fell into his lap. Someone had to be in the right place at the right time.

He got beat by a combined 27.5 lengths in the next two races. This race was slop with top two favorites defecting and good california first timers in mud ...

Next question.


I would strongly disagree....you are using Giacamo;s performance after the Derby, which is impossible to use as a reason because MTB has no post Derby experience. Next, compare and explain...

Beyers before the race-advantage Giacamo
Competition before the race-advantage Giacamo
Trainers and their stats.experience-advantage Giacamo
Owners and their stats/experience-advantage Giacamo


I do understand the slop angle and the unpredictability it created but other than that dont think it is close.

[rastajenk]

Any unit of measure is that everybody and their cousin was redboarding about having Giacomo that year (and ever since); I just logged on and haven't read everything yet, but it's hard to imagine that happening in this case.

[Relwob Owner]

Any unit of measure is that everybody and their cousin was redboarding about having Giacomo that year (and ever since); I just logged on and haven't read everything yet, but it's hard to imagine that happening in this case.



Good point....only seen one so far

[oddsmaven]

Ditto. Mine That Bird is one of those "joke" horses you see every year, and you wonder why the connections are so hyped to visit the Derby just to see their horse run 18th. No one ever said Giacomo didn't belong in the race. He just looked like an established 2nd tier horse.
Agree.

[LemonSoupKid]

I would strongly disagree....you are using Giacamo;s performance after the Derby, which is impossible to use as a reason because MTB has no post Derby experience. Next, compare and explain...

Beyers before the race-advantage Giacamo
Competition before the race-advantage Giacamo
Trainers and their stats.experience-advantage Giacamo
Owners and their stats/experience-advantage Giacamo


I do understand the slop angle and the unpredictability it created but other than that dont think it is close.

I'm using Giacomo's performance after the Derby because it shows why he was 50-1 IN THE DERBY. Given that on an honest track he ran better than clearly better horses, I can easily say this. The reason this isn't that unbelievable is that we don't normally handicap slop. That's why this year is not that surprising. What's more surprising? 50:1 slop or 50:1 fast track. Come on, no question.

How Afleet Alex didn't finish higher than Giacomo is more of a stumper than this horse winning this race. But that proves the point. IT'S 1 RACE.

[Relwob Owner]

I'm using Giacomo's performance after the Derby because it shows why he was 50-1 IN THE DERBY. Given that on an honest track he ran better than clearly better horses, I can easily say this. The reason this isn't that unbelievable is that we don't normally handicap slop. That's why this year is not that surprising. What's more surprising? 50:1 slop or 50:1 fast track. Come on, no question.

How Afleet Alex didn't finish higher than Giacomo is more of a stumper than this horse winning this race. But that proves the point. IT'S 1 RACE.


I guess what you are saying is that rather than comparing the two horses, comparing the conditions make it less of a shocker and I definitely understand that....Afleet Alex was quite a head scratcher and that is what makes this race special

[Greyfox]

I won on Giacomo.
Trainer x competition x ability to close made sense.

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, in # 8 Mine That Bird's past performance lines, his .03 trainer Bennie L. Woolley Jr., his running against class, his Tomlinson Mud number, or anything else that could have predicted a 6.5 length victory.
Oh, yeah, some handicappers will say he ran 4 wide last out and so on.
Don't buy anyone's explanation as to why this one won.
Of interest, is the post race interview with the Trainer that was shown on TV.
....I won't comment on what I really think of him, but his parting comments to the interviewer seemed almost in anger. Almost "as if" Why wouldn't it win?

Well, I'll tell you why it wouldn't or shouldn't win.
1. Past performances were the worst in the race. What is this horse doing here?
2. The trainer had one win in 32 starts, at B level or lower tracks in 2009.
3. The recent work outs weren't that great.
4. The recent races, albeit against a fast track in New Mexico, did little to impress.
5. Nothing exciting in any of the workouts.

I've seen longshots like Giacomo win the Derby. In fact, as the best closer in the race I bet him, as I've mentioned above.
In fact, I love longshots!
There is something about this one doesn't pass the "smell test."

And without saying anything derogatory about Bennie Woolley,
the trainer, I'd be interested in your intial impressions of him
and the interview he gave on TV after the race.

[rastajenk]

I thought he was in shock. And totally unprepared to ad lib a victory speech. I did like to shout out to the trainer in Canada who got him eligible to even run; that was a nice touch.

[Run Nicholas Run]

Easily MINE THAT BIRD.
Giacomo was comptetitive on his beyers always
in the 90's which that season was righ in the mix.

MTB is just a FLUKE.

[Relwob Owner]

I won on Giacomo.
Trainer x competition x ability to close made sense.

There is nothing, absolutely nothing, in # 8 Mine That Bird's past performance lines, his .03 trainer Bennie L. Woolley Jr., his running against class, his Tomlinson Mud number, or anything else that could have predicted a 6.5 length victory.
Oh, yeah, some handicappers will say he ran 4 wide last out and so on.
Don't buy anyone's explanation as to why this one won.
Of interest, is the post race interview with the Trainer that was shown on TV.
....I won't comment on what I really think of him, but his parting comments to the interviewer seemed almost in anger. Almost "as if" Why wouldn't it win?

Well, I'll tell you why it wouldn't or shouldn't win.
1. Past performances were the worst in the race. What is this horse doing here?
2. The trainer had one win in 32 starts, at B level or lower tracks in 2009.
3. The recent work outs weren't that great.
4. The recent races, albeit against a fast track in New Mexico, did little to impress.
5. Nothing exciting in any of the workouts.

I've seen longshots like Giacomo win the Derby. In fact, as the best closer in the race I bet him, as I've mentioned above.
In fact, I love longshots!
There is something about this one doesn't pass the "smell test."

And without saying anything derogatory about Bennie Woolley,
the trainer, I'd be interested in your intial impressions of him
and the interview he gave on TV after the race.


Seemed like a small town guy who was rattled/unimpressed by the pomp and circumstance of the Derby...I also think he may have been treated like an outsider going into the Derby because of his light credentials and having a longshot horse....I think his overall demeanor may have been the result of things that we may not be aware of....what I chose to judge him on was how he dealt with Borel on the horse and that was cool to see....

Plus, half way through the first interview he kind of snapped and I cant blame him...on crutches, on the way to the winners circle and the NBC guy wpouldnt shut up and let him go...

[Tom]

Next question.

Then how come Giaco figured on several factors - pace, fitness/workouts...he ranked #3 in HTR on late pace and #2 turn time. Several here and on another board had him.

[Norm]

This reminds me of a movie I saw once where a guy trained his horse by chasing him across the desert in a beat-up pickup truck. When the horse could outrun this rickety truck (which didn't take much) he was ready to win. The amazing thing about today's race was that this horse was READY. The Derby is all about running that last 3/16ths of a mile, about stamina, about endurance, about what the old trainers used to call "bottom" and this horse was clearly ready. You couldn't see it in the past performances, it wasn't there, but he was ready, his sustained run was a 1/4 mile or more and he won with authority. A betting coup ? ... maybe, but this horse was ready in a way we couldn't see in his record.

This horse or Giacomo ? ... I dunno, but this was pretty wild and surprising.

[The Judge]

Giacamo was more of a shock, here Mine That Bird has won 4 out of 8 races. Toss that BC race and look at what you have.

Must admit its pretty close.

[fmolf]

this horse had never run a beyer higher than 81....80 is the three and upward par for alw n1x at hawthorne...most other tracks it is higher than that!al his big stakes wins in canada were on poly... foaled in may making him a couple months younger than most entrants....the negatives go on and on....i hope he does not test positive for anything for racings sake..that would be a big black eye for the game!... much bigger suprise than giacomo races up to the derby were pretty formful in my opinion and the track seemed fair borel did say earlier to bailey postrace interview that the rail was better than the outside

[bettheoverlay]

I find Birds win the most shocking Derby result in my 45 years of betting horses, especially considering the trainers almost total lack of success training thoroughbreds. If racing results were often this variable it's not worth the effort.

I did check out Bird's Woodbine races. The Grey Stakes was not a bad field although only 6 horses. The favorite was Southern Exchange who had won 3 Woodbine stakes with excellent Bris speed numbers(8 to 10 higher than Bird). I assume the Beyers were good too as Exchange was sent to DelMar and went off the favorite in the Futurity and only beaten 1 3/4 length by eventual Juvenile Classic winner Midshipman.

I wonder whats going on with Kelly Leak who beat Bird in his last at Sunland by 3L, and Scorewithcater who finished ahead of Bird in both Sunland races.

[newtothegame]

Ditto. Mine That Bird is one of those "joke" horses you see every year, and you wonder why the connections are so hyped to visit the Derby just to see their horse run 18th. No one ever said Giacomo didn't belong in the race. He just looked like an established 2nd tier horse.

Every year there is a number of horses with no real shot to win the derby yet they are there. In a 20 horse field doesnt someone always have to finish 18th?

[ryesteve]

Every year there is a number of horses with no real shot to win the derby yet they are there. In a 20 horse field doesnt someone always have to finish 18th?Not sure I get the point. Are you saying you'd like to have a horse in the Derby even though you knew going in he had no shot?

[newtothegame]

Not sure I get the point. Are you saying you'd like to have a horse in the Derby even though you knew going in he had no shot?

But that is the point. To be in the derby, this horse did something. Just as the other 18 starters. Now we and alot of others might not of had MTB on our radars. And I can easily see how frustrating it is when we do our homework, do our best to get it right, and WHAM have something like this happen. But the point of what I was saying is that if everytime a horse didnt have a "shot", they refused to race, it would make for ALOT of short fields all over the country. Just look at the oaks. Why would those "other" horses run against the mighty rachel? After all, they didnt have a shot.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Although Giacomo had run even quarter miles most of his career, he was a bigger shock than Mine That Bird because MTB has iin his sire and grandsire 2 KY Derby winners (Now 3 generations), Preakness winner, Belmont Stakes winner, and BC Classic winner. He was 2008 Canadian 2 yr old champ and was lightly raced.
Unbridled line did well.
With no real fav, 12 total and 3 favs dropping out, off track, multiple longshots who won multiple races, no undefeateds, this was a perfect year to pick multiple longshots and fake dirt winners.
Mine That Bird has now won stakes on off track, all-weather track, dirt, and beat Smarty Jones' time in the Derby; looks like he did about average time for Derby winners on dry tracks.
Anyone have a list of 3 generation Derby winners?
So is everybody going to trash him for the TC?

[ryesteve]

But that is the point. To be in the derby, this horse did something. Just as the other 18 starters. Now we and alot of others might not of had MTB on our radars. And I can easily see how frustrating it is when we do our homework, do our best to get it right, and WHAM have something like this happen.
Yes, he did something:
1) Raced in races with inflated purses relative to the competition
2) Had owners willing to put up the money in order to part of the big show

And believe me, an outcome like this doesn't frustrate me in the least. I'm completely willing to accept that there will always be outcomes that make no sense. Happens alot. And to be honest, I don't even put this race into that category; I believe that path right along the rail was much harder and less tiring than the rest of the track, and that's why the race ended up the way it did.

What DOES frustrate me is people acting as if there's anything in the PPs that would have pointed to this outcome ahead of time. Any angles or indicators anyone thinks they see here make just as much sense as "Box all the jockeys whose names have 5 letters in them". Yeah, worked great this time, but try making that your long-term strategy and see where you end up.

[newtothegame]

Yes, he did something:
1) Raced in races with inflated purses relative to the competition
2) Had owners willing to put up the money in order to part of the big show

And believe me, an outcome like this doesn't frustrate me in the least. I'm completely willing to accept that there will always be outcomes that make no sense. Happens alot. And to be honest, I don't even put this race into that category; I believe that path right along the rail was much harder and less tiring than the rest of the track, and that's why the race ended up the way it did.

What DOES frustrate me is people acting as if there's anything in the PPs that would have pointed to this outcome ahead of time. Any angles or indicators anyone thinks they see here make just as much sense as "Box all the jockeys whose names have 5 letters in them". Yeah, worked great this time, but try making that your long-term strategy and see where you end up.

But isnt this what makes the pools so inviting? People who do play horses that have no shot and is easy money for others to sneak in and grab? I think this game needs people who bet on the "no chances". And this race will keep them in it. Hell, I may just take a long shot or two depending on conditions of the preakness and other factors. I will "donate" some money to the pools in hopes of hitting a large pay out. After all those large payouts is what keeps people in this game. The grind of 9-2's and lower (having to hit a large number of winners) to stay close to even is tough.

[ryesteve]

After all those large payouts is what keeps people in this game.Not this person. If every race ended up like this one, I'd be playing poker. But that's a different discussion.

[Relwob Owner]

Although Giacomo had run even quarter miles most of his career, he was a bigger shock than Mine That Bird because MTB has iin his sire and grandsire 2 KY Derby winners (Now 3 generations), Preakness winner, Belmont Stakes winner, and BC Classic winner. He was 2008 Canadian 2 yr old champ and was lightly raced.
Unbridled line did well.
With no real fav, 12 total and 3 favs dropping out, off track, multiple longshots who won multiple races, no undefeateds, this was a perfect year to pick multiple longshots and fake dirt winners.
Mine That Bird has now won stakes on off track, all-weather track, dirt, and beat Smarty Jones' time in the Derby; looks like he did about average time for Derby winners on dry tracks.
Anyone have a list of 3 generation Derby winners?
So is everybody going to trash him for the TC?


Gotta disagree with you here....you are basing who is the bigger shock based on breeding. That doesnt make too much sense to me because who the bigger shock is should be based on their credentials leading up to the Derby, what races they raced in and also their connections and Giacamo was well ahead in all three.....if you want to use the slop as a reason for it, then I get that but a head to head of who was better prepared and more likely to win before the race based on their performance and connections isnt even close.....


As far as trashing him, I agree and I dont get that at all....now that he has won, I am up for taking the stance that maybe he matured somehow or something else led to the improvement and I hope he continues to improve---just wondering if yesterday was a fluke is excitement enough for the Preakness IMHO

[kenwoodallpromos]

Gotta disagree with you here....you are basing who is the bigger shock based on breeding. That doesnt make too much sense to me because who the bigger shock is should be based on their credentials leading up to the Derby, what races they raced in and also their connections and Giacamo was well ahead in all three.....if you want to use the slop as a reason for it, then I get that but a head to head of who was better prepared and more likely to win before the race based on their performance and connections isnt even close.....


As far as trashing him, I agree and I dont get that at all....now that he has won, I am up for taking the stance that maybe he matured somehow or something else led to the improvement and I hope he continues to improve---just wondering if yesterday was a fluke is excitement enough for the Preakness IMHO
This year's KY Derby trifecta had 3 of the 4 biggest dosages in the race. MTB the bigg :8: est!

[Relwob Owner]

This year's KY Derby trifecta had 3 of the 4 biggest dosages in the race. MTB the bigg :8: est!


Well, you got me there...I am not going to trash dosage numbers but I just dont believe in their usefullness as a priority when handicapping. If you do, I am assuming you are driving a Ferrari right now with your winnings?:)

[kenwoodallpromos]

Well, you got me there...I am not going to trash dosage numbers but I just dont believe in their usefullness as a priority when handicapping. If you do, I am assuming you are driving a Ferrari right now with your winnings?:)
I am answering the original post- this year's had less big shot competition; Breeding (his sire line is similar to several others highly touted) was not one that would stop him from winning a TC race; his dosage and other good finishers were very high, but TC historically of TC winners has been rising (since 1994, a majority from each of the 3 TC races were over 3.00). Giacomo's only win was his maiden, and he had the highest profit return of all runners, so I say his win was more shocking.

[chickenhead]

Giacomo was 4th in the SA Derby @ 7/2 in his final prep.

Giacomo did not run particularly faster than he ever had before in the Derby -- that all the other horses ran slow enough for him to win was shocking, not how he ran.

MTB's performance was much more shockingly unexpected than Giacomos.

[Relwob Owner]

I am answering the original post- this year's had less big shot competition; Breeding (his sire line is similar to several others highly touted) was not one that would stop him from winning a TC race; his dosage and other good finishers were very high, but TC historically of TC winners has been rising (since 1994, a majority from each of the 3 TC races were over 3.00). Giacomo's only win was his maiden, and he had the highest profit return of all runners, so I say his win was more shocking.

Your argument based on track performance continues to be flawed IMO....Saying that Giacomo "only won his maiden" is way too broad and leaves out the facts...in his two year old year, he was second in the Grade 1 Hollywood futurity....in his 3 year old year, he was third in the Sham Stakes, second in the Grade 2 San Felipe, 4th in the Grade 1 SA Derby....it isnt even an opinion type question in terms of who was the bigger surprise based on the horses' on track performance....Giacamo was more likely in every way.

If you want to base the "bigger surprise" on track conditions, breeding, etc. then I think it is open, but a comparison between the two pre Derby is not even close....


Plus, people point to Giacomo's races in the Preakness and Belmont as being proof he was a fluke and got lucky but if you look, those were probably a result of teh horse being exhausted from running four races in three months(2 Grade 1's and 1 Grade 2)....he came back and got third in the Strub and won the San Diego the next year as well...so, the post Derby, "he wasnt that good argument has holes as well....

[Cat Thief]

I sure will not trash him. He is only 3 years and he just happened to improve at the right time. I do not think he has the speed for the Preakness but the Belmont is a different story (look at what his Daddy done)

[Bruddah]

I sure will not trash him. He is only 3 years and he just happened to improve at the right time. I do not think he has the speed for the Preakness but the Belmont is a different story (look at what his Daddy done)


I definitely agree. However, to face the facts, this horse may be a 1 shot wonder. I definitely hope not. If he has future Triple Crown success, it may just be the shot in the arm this sport needs.

I think, as you say, he improved at the right time. Again However, plain old Fate may have been on this horse's side. The slop, the two favorites scratching from the race, and the availability of the best Churchill Downs jockey. Not only is Calvin Bo-Rail a great journeyman jockey but he is excellent with 3yo stock. Calvin is not a "Prima Donna" jockey. If he had been a "Prima Donna" he would never have taken the mount on this longshot and think he had a real chance of getting home first.

If you have seen the replays of Calvin's ride, it's one that racing fans have seen many times at Churchill. He kept the horse running and never got blocked and moved him thru a small hole to kick for home. A truly Masterful ride that he has become well known for at Churchill. He gave the horse the best chance for winning and Won. If any of the significant factors change one ioda, the horse probably doesn't win. But Hey, who cares! It's now in the History books and becomes part of the myth and lore of this Sport. I happen to think it comes at a critical time in our Sport and I hope the horse and his connections do well.

I also particulary like the outcome because it pisses off the "Blue Bloods" in this sport and has them scratching their heads. :lol: :D

[cj's dad]

I also particulary like the outcome because it pisses off the "Blue Bloods" in this sport and has them scratching their heads. :lol: :D

Best part of your post B !!

[Relwob Owner]

Best part of your post B !!


You got that right....nothing better....

[joanied]

Yes...perfect:ThmbUp: ...just like with Funny Cide!!

OH...I voted MTB for the biggest shocker...

[Relwob Owner]

Yes...perfect:ThmbUp: ...just like with Funny Cide!!

OH...I voted MTB for the biggest shocker...

Well, JD, I am still bummed you got tagged a bit for being to0 agreeable but I try not to directly interject....seems to me no problem with getting a different point of view and then changing your mind...if you didnt, what would be the point of a having a forum?

One thing you didnt change your mind on was POTN....we were defending him and I think we hit the marK!

[joanied]

Well, JD, I am still bummed you got tagged a bit for being to0 agreeable but I try not to directly interject....seems to me no problem with getting a different point of view and then changing your mind...if you didnt, what would be the point of a having a forum?

One thing you didnt change your mind on was POTN....we were defending him and I think we hit the marK!

Hey there, Relwob...thanks so much...I appreciate :) your support...I beleive every one of us has posted something, read some others posts on the same subject...and changed their minds...geeze...it's just being human...not to worry, Relwob...I'm not...except that I felt pretty bad because I agreed with something that I should have thought about first...my bad:)

Yep...we stuck with him and Pioneer did GOOD:ThmbUp: if the race had come up with a dry track...maybe woulda won!

[W2G]

I chose MTB, not because he was much more improbable than Jocko (he wasn't), but because he crushed his foes and took the fight to them. Jocko was kind of standing there while the race collapsed around him -- somebody had to cross the finish line first. MTB shocked with the manner of his victory that suggests there's still more gas in the tank.

[LemonSoupKid]

Mine That Bird only shocked because he was 50. Guys come on, this really isn't even a question. Just read this one time and it's obvious:

1) The track was off and hardly anyone in the field had run on muddy, let alone sloppy, surfaces which means
2) You can't easily handicap the race. Why? You gauge horses once a year in 20 horse fields, and this is 19 horses, in the SLOP, upon which people ARE NOT (or can't) handicapping the race
3) Giacomo's time and Beyer were the slowest maybe ever - I know the 100 Beyer was lowest ever --- On a fast track that people were in fact handicapping for!
4) Mine That Bird won more than Giacomo

What's more shocking? A 50-1 horse winning on an off surface, upon which no other horse has run, essentially (with big favorites also scratched or held out) OR

a 50-1 horse that runs the slowest EVER in Derby history on a fast track, that everyone has handicapped with relevant past performance examples (and goes on to get demolished)?

The choice is mind-numbingly obvious, both before and after Giacomo was proven to be the most bogus winner in history.

LSKid

ps- what's worse was Mike Smith talking him up and acting like he was some semblance even of a great horse. I laughed all the way ... to the bank. What a great horse, Mike, he got beat the next two races by 27.5 lengths. Ridiculous. Biggest fraud and race breakdown that I'll ever be alive for --- without question!

[fmolf]

I sure will not trash him. He is only 3 years and he just happened to improve at the right time. I do not think he has the speed for the Preakness but the Belmont is a different story (look at what his Daddy done)
he made the largest improvement of speed figs than any other horse in the race...very unlikely and worth more than 50/1 in my opinion so he is a bigger surprise than giacomo...hell ken rudolph picked giacomo :lol:

[fmolf]

Mine That Bird only shocked because he was 50. Guys come on, this really isn't even a question. Just read this one time and it's obvious:

1) The track was off and hardly anyone in the field had run on muddy, let alone sloppy, surfaces which means
2) You can't easily handicap the race. Why? You gauge horses once a year in 20 horse fields, and this is 19 horses, in the SLOP, upon which people ARE NOT (or can't) handicapping the race
3) Giacomo's time and Beyer were the slowest maybe ever - I know the 100 Beyer was lowest ever --- On a fast track that people were in fact handicapping for!
4) Mine That Bird won more than Giacomo

What's more shocking? A 50-1 horse winning on an off surface, upon which no other horse has run, essentially (with big favorites also scratched or held out) OR

a 50-1 horse that runs the slowest EVER in Derby history on a fast track, that everyone has handicapped with relevant past performance examples (and goes on to get demolished)?

The choice is mind-numbingly obvious, both before and after Giacomo was proven to be the most bogus winner in history.

LSKid

ps- what's worse was Mike Smith talking him up and acting like he was some semblance even of a great horse. I laughed all the way ... to the bank. What a great horse, Mike, he got beat the next two races by 27.5 lengths. Ridiculous. Biggest fraud and race breakdown that I'll ever be alive for --- without question!
i would not be surprised if mtb never snifed another graded stakes victory again and he may race another five six years!just my opinion of him which has not changed since before the derby.....he should have been 100/1 or better....and most of the other stakes races were pretty formful if you ask me!

[Relwob Owner]

Mine That Bird only shocked because he was 50. Guys come on, this really isn't even a question. Just read this one time and it's obvious:

1) The track was off and hardly anyone in the field had run on muddy, let alone sloppy, surfaces which means
2) You can't easily handicap the race. Why? You gauge horses once a year in 20 horse fields, and this is 19 horses, in the SLOP, upon which people ARE NOT (or can't) handicapping the race
3) Giacomo's time and Beyer were the slowest maybe ever - I know the 100 Beyer was lowest ever --- On a fast track that people were in fact handicapping for!
4) Mine That Bird won more than Giacomo

What's more shocking? A 50-1 horse winning on an off surface, upon which no other horse has run, essentially (with big favorites also scratched or held out) OR

a 50-1 horse that runs the slowest EVER in Derby history on a fast track, that everyone has handicapped with relevant past performance examples (and goes on to get demolished)?

The choice is mind-numbingly obvious, both before and after Giacomo was proven to be the most bogus winner in history.

LSKid

ps- what's worse was Mike Smith talking him up and acting like he was some semblance even of a great horse. I laughed all the way ... to the bank. What a great horse, Mike, he got beat the next two races by 27.5 lengths. Ridiculous. Biggest fraud and race breakdown that I'll ever be alive for --- without question!


I am not going to debate much with you on this anymore because you have turned this thread into-What is more iunpredictable-A fast track or a sloppy track---well, a sloppy track, you win there...

You ignore the connections of the horse....Sherrifs/Moss vs MTB's combo...not even close....

Your number 4 is one of the worst arguments I have ever seen and then it brings in the idea of comparing which horse looked better going in based on performance...who cares if MTB won more than Giacomo? Giacomo was running in Grade 2"s and Grade 3's.....and I can pretty much guarantee that if Giacomo had faced a mediocre horse like Kelly Leak, he wouldnt have gotten beaten like MTB did...

You then turn to Giacomo after the Derby which makes less sense...he lost his gas in the Preakness and Belmont due to being in 4 graded races in 3 months....he then took time off and eventually won a Grade 2.....you can see all the pre and post race stats in my post you chose not to resond to because they are facts you cant argue with.....


Yeah, about Mike Smith...he should have said what a crappy horse he was riding and that he would never win a graded race again....oh wait, he did win another Graded race, didnt he?????????

[fmolf]

I am not going to debate much with you on this anymore because you have turned this thread into-What is more iunpredictable-A fast track or a sloppy track---well, a sloppy track, you win there...

You ignore the connections of the horse....Sherrifs/Moss vs MTB's combo...not even close....

Your number 4 is one of the worst arguments I have ever seen and then it brings in the idea of comparing which horse looked better going in based on performance...who cares if MTB won more than Giacomo? Giacomo was running in Grade 2"s and Grade 3's.....and I can pretty much guarantee that if Giacomo had faced a mediocre horse like Kelly Leak, he wouldnt have gotten beaten like MTB did...

You then turn to Giacomo after the Derby which makes less sense...he lost his gas in the Preakness and Belmont due to being in 4 graded races in 3 months....he then took time off and eventually won a Grade 2.....you can see all the pre and post race stats in my post you chose not to resond to because they are facts you cant argue with.....


Yeah, about Mike Smith...he should have said what a crappy horse he was riding and that he would never win a graded race again....oh wait, he did win another Graded race, didnt he?????????
wow this is strange i agree with everything you said it is not even close. giacomo i feel belonged in the race... mtb did not!...i think they should revise the graded earnings rules and count only earnings rom the three year old campaign...not only would this insure that horses belong ..it would spice up all the prep races of the late winter early springtime and prevent a horse like mtb from getting in by winning one weak grade two

[Relwob Owner]

wow this is strange i agree with everything you said it is not even close. giacomo i feel belonged in the race... mtb did not!...i think they should revise the graded earnings rules and count only earnings rom the three year old campaign...not only would this insure that horses belong ..it would spice up all the prep races of the late winter early springtime and prevent a horse like mtb from getting in by winning one weak grade two

We both post a lot so we were bound to agree on something!:) I keep posting what seem to be facts but get no response...oh well.

You are on the mark that the earnings rules may need to be analyzed....

[raybo]

Pre-race, I don't have an opinion. Post-start, Mine The Bird, easily. He overcame much adversity in his victory.

[Canadian]

wow this is strange i agree with everything you said it is not even close. giacomo i feel belonged in the race... mtb did not!...


Yes... it is quite obvious to me now that Mine That Bird did not belong in that race............ what ever were the connections thinking.

[cj's dad]

he made the largest improvement of speed figs than any other horse in the race...very unlikely and worth more than 50/1 in my opinion so he is a bigger surprise than giacomo...hell ken rudolph picked giacomo :lol:


Sorry you have a problem digesting numbers, but as I said, on the figures THAT I USE he jumped 16 pts from 1st dirt outing to 2nd try on dirt.

[rastajenk]

.i think they should revise the graded earnings rules and count only earnings rom the three year old campaign...not only would this insure that horses belong ..it would spice up all the prep races of the late winter early springtime and prevent a horse like mtb from getting in by winning one weak grade two Yeah, we can't have those precocious two-year-olds clunking up the biggest race of the year and denying a spot to all those fit and readies who haven't achieved enough earnings...oh, wait, that didn't happen here. All the fit-and-readies weren't quite so fit or ready.

This line of illogic comes up every year, and it rarely plays out the way its supporters imagine it will.

The Kid in this thread must have lemon soup for brains. Look at how this winner even managed to get in the race, and tell me that it's less improbable than a graded stakes-placed runner from California winning the Derby.

[fmolf]

Yeah, we can't have those precocious two-year-olds clunking up the biggest race of the year and denying a spot to all those fit and readies who haven't achieved enough earnings...oh, wait, that didn't happen here. All the fit-and-readies weren't quite so fit or ready.

This line of illogic comes up every year, and it rarely plays out the way its supporters imagine it will.

The Kid in this thread must have lemon soup for brains. Look at how this winner even managed to get in the race, and tell me that it's less improbable than a graded stakes-placed runner from California winning the Derby.
i am not saying that just because of what happened.....am i the only one who thought this years preps were boring and watered down?... using only three yr old criteria would get these horses racing against each other starting in january...instead of horses earning their way in as a two yr old..including square eddie and the likes.....mtb did beat a pretty weak field in the "grey"....but he played by therules in place and kudos to all involved!but still in my humble opinion changing the rule would create more excitement over the kd prep season and make it kind of like a race to the derby...just to get in!...we all know racing needs more excitement !

[Backwheel]

IMO Mine that Bird

Giamcamo had at least been competative in Graded races at SA. He was the 2nd choice in the SA derby.

Mine that Bird wasn't very impressive at Sunland.

In my hadicapping I had no scenarios except 18 other horses falling in which I thought Mine that Brid would win. He was the one of the 1st horses I wrote "NO" across.

Bastard cost me money I did have the 2-5 finishers.

That being said in 2005 I was all over Wilko.

Side note I wonder how Mine That Bird's win will do to the odds on Kelly Leak (who beat MTB in the Sunland Derby)?

[fmolf]

i believe kelly leak is out of the lone star derby ith an ulcer ...but i would have run him in the preakness if he is healthy....

[GregReinhart]

I wonder whats going on with Kelly Leak who beat Bird in his last at Sunland by 3L, and Scorewithcater who finished ahead of Bird in both Sunland races.

Scorewithcater is entered in the Peter Pan on Saturday at Belmont.