Everything looks so clear after the fact...

[Valupix]

Bris past performances show that Mine The Bird's sire Birdstone (only very limited starters) is producing winners on mud at a remarkable 23% rate.

Smart Strike, the dam sire produces them at a 20% rate.

Bred to eat mud for breakfast!

I still could not have pulled the trigger.

[Oaklawn]

Bris past performances show that Mine The Bird's sire Birdstone (only very limited starters) is producing winners on mud at a remarkable 23% rate.

Smart Strike, the dam sire produces them at a 20% rate.

Bred to eat mud for breakfast!

I still could not have pulled the trigger.

Why did this reflect in the Tomlinson ratings?

[Valupix]

Why did this reflect in the Tomlinson ratings?
What did the Tomlinson's have? I don't look at them.

If the Tomlinson number is light, it may be due to the fact Birdstone is a very new sire and has very few starters to base data on.

The Bris percentage is based on only 13 starters on mud.

[Valupix]

For those skeptics looking for ammo going into the Preakness...how big a factor was the off track?

[MNslappy]

I'd wager this horse will never hit the board in a grade 1 ever again. I hope people are foolish enough to bet him heavily in MD, but I doubt it.

I'm still trying to figure out how, from a solid handicapping perspective, I or any handicapper for that matter, could've ever gotten to that horse without using voodoo. 4th at Sunland to winning the Derby. Lowest average last 3 speed figs in the entire field....I'm trying to learn from this, but....maybe there's nothing to learn...maybe it was just the fluke of all flukes.

[Secretariat]

I'd wager this horse will never hit the board in a grade 1 ever again. I hope people are foolish enough to bet him heavily in MD, but I doubt it.

I'm still trying to figure out how, from a solid handicapping perspective, I or any handicapper for that matter, could've ever gotten to that horse without using voodoo. 4th at Sunland to winning the Derby. Lowest average last 3 speed figs in the entire field....I'm trying to learn from this, but....maybe there's nothing to learn...maybe it was just the fluke of all flukes.

I agree with you. This horse couldn't even finish in the money at SUN, and was trounced agaisnt G3 at OSA.

Obviously, the track helped move the horse up, and we can attirbute the breeding to Birdstone I guess, but man watching that overhead cam of the move that horse made was unbeleivable.

I couldn't have pulled the trigger. Kudos to those that did. Usually, I always see something about a horse afterwards, but this one is going to be a real mystery especially with a 3% trainer.

[ArlJim78]

For those skeptics looking for ammo going into the Preakness...how big a factor was the off track?
imo opinion the off track was a HUGE factor. the other big factor was Borel taking him way out of it, and separating from the field. I think with a fast track in the Preakness this horse will be nowhere to be found.

[oddsmaven]

For those skeptics looking for ammo going into the Preakness...how big a factor was the off track?
To my way of thinking, it's a huge factor...I see too many inexplicable results on off tracks and generally prefer to sit out such days.

[PaceAdvantage]

You also must remeber this horse is 4/8 lifetime with one second going into the Derby. It's not like he was some shmoo with only a maiden win under his belt.

So, you add that to the fact he's a May foal and just turning 3, he's getting a positive jockey switch, running over the mud for the first time, and he got a dream trip behind some very decent fractions....plus CJ pointed out he made a solid move into wicked fractions in the Sunland Derby...plus who knows how accurate the Sunland Beyers are....

Improbable, but not impossible. I would have never bet him though...not in 1,000,000 years.

[Boris]

You also must remeber this horse is 4/8 lifetime with one second going into the Derby. It's not like he was some shmoo with only a maiden win under his belt.

And Canadian 2 year old champion. And I think the BC Juvy and Sunland races are the two biggest purses these guys run in before the Derby. And ... And ... And ...

And I didn't look at him twice before the race.

[fmolf]

You also must remeber this horse is 4/8 lifetime with one second going into the Derby. It's not like he was some shmoo with only a maiden win under his belt.

So, you add that to the fact he's a May foal and just turning 3, he's getting a positive jockey switch, running over the mud for the first time, and he got a dream trip behind some very decent fractions....plus CJ pointed out he made a solid move into wicked fractions in the Sunland Derby...plus who knows how accurate the Sunland Beyers are....

Improbable, but not impossible. I would have never bet him though...not in 1,000,000 years.
his highest beyer # was an 81 :bang: this is equivalent to an alw n1x at most 2nd tier tracks!...the 20k claiming par at belmont is at that number! :bang: only thru sheer numerology could one end up on this horse ...congratulations to all born on august 16th! or married on that day or kids birthdays... a lot of very happy once a year players out their :lol:

[Valupix]

There are other speed figures out there folks. Lots and lots of them.

Bris shows that his best number was a 90. Still well off the top numbers in the race, but right in the ballpark with Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy who apparantly no one other than me was going to be surprised by had they ran fast enough to beat the top Derby horses.

If those two were not going to shook you, then why does this guy shook you.

[cmoore]

The trainer Woolley said that the jockey did make his move too early in the Sunland Derby..He did get the lead at some point but tired late..So he got a jockey who executed their plan perfectly..

Let's look at the pps closely..
4 for 4 at Woodbine
0 for 1 at Santa Anita
0 for 3 at Sunland

I'm looking at the pace figures for Sunland Derby..How can the pace be a fast 45.1 and 1:10 flat and Mind That Birds pace figures are and 80 and 86..Was the track that fast. It just seems the all the figures at Sunland are wrong.

[The Judge]

Mine That Bird was helped by his poor break . The only positive that I could see from a handicapping point aside from the horse being 4/8 now 5/9,Micheal Pizzola pointed out in his Derby Rant. MTB had the fasted on the lead calls 48 and 111.4 losing by a nk. in a 1 1/16 race. The 2nd fastest on the lead (first two calls) was Join IN The Dance 48.2 and 112.2. (No Pizzola didn't have MTB.)

By breaking so slowly MTB was able to save his energy early plus Calvin had him in the best spot on the track "the rail", but how do you handicapp that?

[Jinxed]

Mine That Bird was helped by his poor break . The only positive that I could see from a handicapping point aside from the horse being 4/8 now 5/9,Micheal Pizzola pointed out in his Derby Rant. MTB had the fasted on the lead calls 48 and 111.4 losing by a nk. in a 1 1/16 race. The 2nd fastest on the lead (first two calls) was Join IN The Dance 48.2 and 112.2. (No Pizzola didn't have MTB.)

By breaking so slowly MTB was able to save his energy early plus Calvin had him in the best spot on the track "the rail", but how do you handicapp that?

Wooley has only been training this horse since Oct., so I don't give a whole lot of credit to him. However, Mine That Bird was the champion 2-yr-old at Woodbine in 08. Why he got sold, and why he ended up in New Mexico, I don't know, but he was a very successful horse in Canada.