View Full Version : So someone explain to me
HuskyDomains
05-02-2009, 07:21 PM
Why Mine That Bird jumped 20+ beyer pts there?
Horse ran a 46 beyer in his first race... It just doesn't add up
toussaud
05-02-2009, 07:22 PM
Mudd + Borel + Magic
I think calivin not ever rding him helped to becase this horse was a front runner in the past. calivn had him dead last.
Bubba X
05-02-2009, 07:23 PM
Why Mine That Bird jumped 20+ beyer pts there?
Horse ran a 46 beyer in his first race... It just doesn't add up
Speed figures are important. They are not everything important.
Run Nicholas Run
05-02-2009, 07:26 PM
its a fluke .
In baltimore he will be like the RAVENS a FLOP :D
Greyfox
05-02-2009, 07:28 PM
Why Mine That Bird jumped 20+ beyer pts there?
Horse ran a 46 beyer in his first race... It just doesn't add up
I know what you're saying Husky, and I'm pretty leery of what happened too.
I won't say impossible. I just say improbable. This 50-1 shot should have been 150-1. When Giacomo won at 50-1 that was logical. But this one running at least 20 points faster doesn't figure.
Bubba X
05-02-2009, 07:31 PM
What's logical about Giacomo is that he won by a fairly narrow margin. This 50-1 horse today won by 6.5 lengths and the race was over at the 1/8 pole.
HuskyDomains
05-02-2009, 07:32 PM
It figures after 2 races... But this horse had run 8 times.... With a 46 Beyer in his first race... a 4th place showing in the Sunland Derby. . . and a trainer that had 1 win.
I don't discuss drugs etc because they're all on them..But this looks suspect
I am not for one second trying to say I bet the horse, because I didn't, but his Beyer meant very little. The horse made a huge move while 4 wide into a VERY hot pace last time in New Mexico to take the lead only to tire late. It was a big performance.
Greyfox
05-02-2009, 07:33 PM
What's logical about Giacomo is that he won by a fairly narrow margin. This 50-1 horse today won by 6.5 lengths and the race was over at the 1/8 pole.
Right. Giacomo just made it up to win by a short margin over another longshot.
It wasn't as if he ran out of his skin and went 20 Beyers higher.
toussaud
05-02-2009, 07:35 PM
this beyer won't be that high. he ran 2:02 and 3. there hasn't been one that slow since smarty won it in 05 and that was in the utter slop
it was more f a perfect storm than antyhing..t his horse ran the race of his and his daddy's life combined and the field slowed down. dunkirk fell down and prado rushed him up, fresien never fired, choclate candy never fired, etc.
HuskyDomains
05-02-2009, 07:38 PM
Maybe not 100+ but the horse def ran a 95... After 8 races improving 15 pts is pretty unheard of
delayjf
05-02-2009, 07:46 PM
Mine That Bird last race pace figure (CJ - 117) was not only a new pace top, but the highest pace figure in the field. So if you give any credabily to Fotias and his theory about horse's running new pace tops then you MIGHT have forseen a big improvement. I looked him over in the form and dismissed him without a thought, not even looking at his pace numbers (thanks CJ). I didn't notice the big pace figure until after the race.
Nothing logical about MTB -- odds should've been much higher, horse should not have sniffed a single digit placing, let alone the roses, and not by that margin of victory.
But as it is, as it always has been, as it always will be...
That is horse racing.
The greatest sport the world has ever known.
We'll deal with it and move on. But it will take some soul-searching to reinforce our collective belief that something rational and empirical governs this game.
Smarty Cide
05-02-2009, 07:49 PM
im in shock and will be until wednesday
Maybe not 100+ but the horse def ran a 95... After 8 races improving 15 pts is pretty unheard of
I gave him a 108. Rarely is my figure more than a couple of points off of the official Beyer.
MrHotStuff
05-02-2009, 08:58 PM
gotta wonder about possible doping or maybe they knew they had a good horse for a year and have been deliberatly runnuing him bad to get the big payout. I hope none of it is true and they are just great people who got lucky on a muddy Sat. in may.
PaceAdvantage
05-02-2009, 11:17 PM
Why is it that the people with hardly any posts to their credit always seem to make the most outrageous claims/accusations?
BillW
05-02-2009, 11:17 PM
I am not for one second trying to say I bet the horse, because I didn't, but his Beyer meant very little. The horse made a huge move while 4 wide into a VERY hot pace last time in New Mexico to take the lead only to tire late. It was a big performance.
Good observation! Even though it is apparently off topic in a conspiracy thread. :lol:
im in shock and will be until wednesday
Well be quite when you come to. I'm out of it until Friday at least! :D
dutchboy
05-02-2009, 11:43 PM
Google "high altitude horse training" Sunland, NM qualifies at 3730ft where Mine That Bird has been training since Jan.
Anyone recall Canonero II winning the Derby and had been training in So America up to the Derby.
Relwob Owner
05-02-2009, 11:46 PM
gotta wonder about possible doping or maybe they knew they had a good horse for a year and have been deliberatly runnuing him bad to get the big payout. I hope none of it is true and they are just great people who got lucky on a muddy Sat. in may.
FYI-why ask about doping...just credit the horse---next, you are wrong, I believe, in how long they have had him....they bought him privately, in November I believe, for 400K......
BeatTheChalk
05-03-2009, 01:16 AM
its a fluke .
In baltimore he will be like the RAVENS a FLOP :D
Umm what is your point ? He wasnt a fluke today. Most of the horses were
not even CLOSE to handling the track. He loved the track ..Also his breeding
is as good or BETTER than any other horse. Very rare combination and
the story is that the folks breeding this horse..knew what the hell they
were doing. This is a class animal .. who finally won a hand .. :jump:
cmoore
05-03-2009, 01:24 AM
The broodmare sire Smart Strike had the highest mud sire percentage over the last 3 years...That's the only statistical figure I can come up with on why he won it..Calvin obviously had a lot to do with it...Any other jockey on Mine That Bird today doesn't win...Who else would of dropped into last place, 20+ lengths back..
BeatTheChalk
05-03-2009, 01:25 AM
gotta wonder about possible doping or maybe they knew they had a good horse for a year and have been deliberatly runnuing him bad to get the big payout. I hope none of it is true and they are just great people who got lucky on a muddy Sat. in may.
Yes I have been wondering about it all day. What actually happened is this..
First Nobama forced the owners of REVENGE to Scratch him. Because we
dont allow that kind of a name anymore...
It might be a hate crime and it is dangerous. The Obama looked at the
field and decided that BIRD deserved to win a hand..because all of the other
horses had won too many.
And Rammit Emanuel placed a large bet outside of the country...See how
easy it is ..when You are connected....No they wouldnt let me bet..
Oh ..the owner can run his horse any way he likes. No rules yet...that say
you cant conceal THE HORSE'S FORM. Not yet anyway.
As for luck ..4 horses besides the winner .. handled the track at all..
Pioneer who is legit ..beat em all .. except the Longshot. anything can
happen in the mud
Goodnite say NO to Nobama. :eek: :blush: :sleeping: :kiss:
MNslappy
05-03-2009, 01:28 AM
The broodmare sire Smart Strike had the highest mud sire percentage over the last 3 years...That's the only statistical figure I can come up with on why he won it..Calvin obviously had a lot to do with it...Any other jockey on Mine That Bird today doesn't win...Who else would of dropped into last place, 20+ lengths back..
Not Prado :bang:
JPinMaryland
05-03-2009, 12:24 PM
I am not for one second trying to say I bet the horse, because I didn't, but his Beyer meant very little. The horse made a huge move while 4 wide into a VERY hot pace last time in New Mexico to take the lead only to tire late. It was a big performance.
Maybe I'm missing something but if you close into a hot pace at Sundland arent you supposed to win, if you are any good? Or is SUnland biased to front runners? Not sure what is meant here.
kenwoodallpromos
05-03-2009, 02:12 PM
Becasuse the rail speed was 20 Beyer points higher than his prior tracks or the 2 path on Derby day. No one would be surprised if somebody blocked Borel off at the rail.
fmolf
05-03-2009, 07:40 PM
Maybe I'm missing something but if you close into a hot pace at Sundland arent you supposed to win, if you are any good? Or is SUnland biased to front runners? Not sure what is meant here.
he did not close at sunland it was an average paced race and he lost ground after making his move.from the 6f mark on he did not have any late kick do not be fooled by the fractions sunland is fast track
OFFandRUNNING10
05-03-2009, 09:25 PM
Mudd + Borel + Magic
I think calivin not ever rding him helped to becase this horse was a front runner in the past. calivn had him dead last.
i really wouldnt say he was a front runner by any means. when he run his 4 straight races last year he was running 4 and 5th in each race (6 horses in each of those races) at the first call ... he always seemed to make his move except for in the SilverDeputy by the 2nd call but i wouldnt call him a front runner. Also Borel didnt purposely try to put him last... he got pinched not long after the gate and pulled him back which set him up there. Its not like he intentionally went into the race to position him there.
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