CLASS\CONDITION

[BIG HIT]

Hi guy's have no problem on class condition's till we get two nw16m nw1y nw2l.These are really hard two evaluate as seem not much difference.Have to admit nw16m verse horsenw1y they all seem to be pretty much the same.
Just threw the nw2L in because on rare time they have moved up and won usually they move to nw3L more times then not fail frist time any way.How do you guy's look at these condition moves any thing you could share on subject would be grateful.

[Tom]

The these bottom levels, I look for two things-

1. Sharp form, no matter what class, look for horses to move up and repeat good performances. If last out was bad, don't look for any improvement.

2. Class drop from open races, no matter how bad the recent form.

Look for horse who just meet the condition and have been laid off most of the restriction period. Say the race is for NW since November 15. A horse last ran on Novemeber 5 and then was laid off. He comes back, run a race or two, shows a little life - bet hime over a consistent in-the-money but no wins horse who campaigned steadily sicne Nov 15. Proven losers draw money and disappoint regularly.

[so.cal.fan]

Good observations, Tom.

[kitts]

I make most of my money from the races with the real cheapies (although not lately) and my requirement is simple-must have a win showing. This criteria alone often reduces the race to my required 5 contenders. Then aggressive paceline selection. Choose a strong paceline no matter how far back. Try to make all of these strong pacelines similar in DRF SR-TV and/or final time numbers (Beyer, Cramer, or whomever) and then measure ability (some sort of speed handicapping)and evaluate race shape (I use Cramer's RS/POS)and check for value and then make a decision.

[jotb]

Originally posted by BIG HIT
Hi guy's have no problem on class condition's till we get two nw16m nw1y nw2l.These are really hard two evaluate as seem not much difference.Have to admit nw16m verse horsenw1y they all seem to be pretty much the same.
Just threw the nw2L in because on rare time they have moved up and won usually they move to nw3L more times then not fail frist time any way.How do you guy's look at these condition moves any thing you could share on subject would be grateful.


NW16M-Horses that have not won a race in 6 months

NW1Y- Horses that have not won a race in the last year

NW2L- Horses that have not won two races lifetime.

Joe

[Doug]

Watch distance capabilities and race shape/rs.

Doug

[keilan]

pass race

[BIG HIT]

You guy's have been real heip in my re thinking and new idea's thanks agian.

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

Generally speaking, I'd rate a NW2L race over NW16M or NW1Y, since it's more likely to draw younger, lightly raced horses.

When I was making pars for LRL/PIM, IIRC, a 20k-NW2L was roughly equivalent to an open 8500 claiming race.

MP