Cholly
05-01-2009, 07:34 PM
Analysis of the Derby/Oaks Double odds using Rachel Alexandria:
• Odds on IWR will match his M/L of 3-1.
• Pioneer of The Nile is cold, rising to 7-1.
• Friesan Fire & Dunkirk flip-flop in order; 4-1 & 6-1 respectively. (maybe bettors anticipating an off-track?)
• Chocolate Candy is taking action…bet down to 13-1 from
M/L of 20-1.
• Everyone else will be bet close to their M/L.
• I thought it interesting that of the 6 horses that will go off at odds > 100-1, two are trained by Todd Pletcher, and one each by Zito & D. Wayne. Even Hall of Fame status is no guarantee of respect.
Two streaks that interest me:
1. The last 3 winner's odds were 2-1, 9-2, & 6-1.The last
sequence of 4 consecutive single digit winners ended in 1979.
2. Godolphin runners have really stunk it up in previous Derbys. This from the same stable that combines more money than God with astute horsemanship that has allowed them to dominate European racing.
I’m betting across the board on both Godolphin horses, doubling up in the show-hole, and boxing them in an exacta. The bonus is that with their distinctive blue silks, I won’t have any problem picking out my horses…provided that they’re close enough to be in the picture.
It is with no hesitation I’ll bet against I Want A Syringe (moniker courtesy of Tim Rice). Fast, no doubt…but he took 4 races to break his maiden, and in later stakes either refused to go past Pioneer of the Nile or coughed up a lead to that one. In his lauded Wood victory, he beat by a length a horse who today will go off at 50-1. This one still has to show me he’s got the heart of a champion.
MAJOR CAVEAT: If the track is muddy or sloppy, look for chalk. The last time those conditions yielded a winner with double digit odds was Exterminator in 1918.
• Odds on IWR will match his M/L of 3-1.
• Pioneer of The Nile is cold, rising to 7-1.
• Friesan Fire & Dunkirk flip-flop in order; 4-1 & 6-1 respectively. (maybe bettors anticipating an off-track?)
• Chocolate Candy is taking action…bet down to 13-1 from
M/L of 20-1.
• Everyone else will be bet close to their M/L.
• I thought it interesting that of the 6 horses that will go off at odds > 100-1, two are trained by Todd Pletcher, and one each by Zito & D. Wayne. Even Hall of Fame status is no guarantee of respect.
Two streaks that interest me:
1. The last 3 winner's odds were 2-1, 9-2, & 6-1.The last
sequence of 4 consecutive single digit winners ended in 1979.
2. Godolphin runners have really stunk it up in previous Derbys. This from the same stable that combines more money than God with astute horsemanship that has allowed them to dominate European racing.
I’m betting across the board on both Godolphin horses, doubling up in the show-hole, and boxing them in an exacta. The bonus is that with their distinctive blue silks, I won’t have any problem picking out my horses…provided that they’re close enough to be in the picture.
It is with no hesitation I’ll bet against I Want A Syringe (moniker courtesy of Tim Rice). Fast, no doubt…but he took 4 races to break his maiden, and in later stakes either refused to go past Pioneer of the Nile or coughed up a lead to that one. In his lauded Wood victory, he beat by a length a horse who today will go off at 50-1. This one still has to show me he’s got the heart of a champion.
MAJOR CAVEAT: If the track is muddy or sloppy, look for chalk. The last time those conditions yielded a winner with double digit odds was Exterminator in 1918.