Kentucky Derby 135 Picks: Who Do You Like?

[Stevie Belmont]

Who is picking who? Not sure if there is a thread for this, if there is, get rid of this. Post your pick here. Interesting to see who likes who and why...

[michiken]

Based on pure speed figs, I find it very hard to beat IWR. I will continue to handicap to see if I can find a value perfecta, tri.....

[sam i am]

Here Is My Super

#5
#10
#13
#19

[Bill Cullen]

off track: $1 triple box--> Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Nowhere to Hide, Atomic Rain

Fast track: $1 triple box--> Friesan Fire, General Quarters, Atomic Rain, Advice

[Bruddah]

4-13-15-17
1-4-6-13-15-17
1-4-6-13-15-17

Win- Advice-I want Revenge-Dunkirk-Summer Bird

Plc-West Side Bernie-Advice-Friesan Fire-Papa Clem-I want Revenge-Dunkirk-Summer Bird

Shw-same as plc line

[OTM Al]

13 // 1,6,10,15,19 // 1,6,10,15,19

That's about the limit I will ever spread. I am assuming a wet track here. Otherwise replace Desert Party with Papa Clem

[LemonSoupKid]

I'm taking a stand with these:

16 WPS
Exacta Box 11-16
Tri Box 6-13-16, Tri 16 w/5,12 w/2,6
Supers:
6,16 with 5,11,12 with 6,13,16 with 2,5,11,12
11,13 with 6,12,16 with 13,15,16 with 1,2,3,11
6,16 with 10,15,19 with 6,13,15,16 with 10,11,12,13,19

I have some thoughts on the pick 4. Anyone with thoughts on races 8-9-10?

LemonSoupKid

[Relwob Owner]

I'm taking a stand with these:

16 WPS
Exacta Box 11-16
Tri Box 6-13-16, Tri 16 w/5,12 w/2,6
Supers:
6,16 with 5,11,12 with 6,13,16 with 2,5,11,12
11,13 with 6,12,16 with 13,15,16 with 1,2,3,11
6,16 with 10,15,19 with 6,13,15,16 with 10,11,12,13,19

I have some thoughts on the pick 4. Anyone with thoughts on races 8-9-10?

LemonSoupKid

I really like the 4, Bear Now, in the Humana Distaff....should be abt 8 to 1

[NYPlayer]

I don't think there is any one single horse to like, but I will play against IWR in the top spot. I think West Side Bernie is great value at 30 ML, and early betting has him higher. I plan to key him with Dunkirk and FF in the triple with a few others as "underneath" possibilities (2,11,13,16).

Good luck to everyone. This Derby should be fun.

[Secretariat]

I am not sure how he'll handle the surface, but I'll say Papa Clem at a big price. Freisan Fire could be tough in the slop.

[Relwob Owner]

I'm taking a stand with these:

16 WPS
Exacta Box 11-16
Tri Box 6-13-16, Tri 16 w/5,12 w/2,6
Supers:
6,16 with 5,11,12 with 6,13,16 with 2,5,11,12
11,13 with 6,12,16 with 13,15,16 with 1,2,3,11
6,16 with 10,15,19 with 6,13,15,16 with 10,11,12,13,19

I have some thoughts on the pick 4. Anyone with thoughts on races 8-9-10?

LemonSoupKid



8th-Rustic Flame/Ballymore Lady
9th-Bear Now/Informed Decision
10th-Court Vision

Good luck!

[big frank]

2 predictions ----- Winner ---- DUNKIRK ,,,, Off The Board , I WANT REVENGE

[Boris]

Already bet FF. The rain is going to cost me a few dollars. Tied to the 2,7,10 up and down in the exactiods. Cheap string of tris that have 6/2,7,10/13,15,16 wheeled thru.

Can't see anything long winning this race. The Pamplemoose, Square Eddie, Win Willy, Quality Road – That’s four would be contenders whose removal seriously dilutes the quality of the field. While it makes what was the 10th ranked horse now the 6th ranked horse, it has NOT decreased the quality of the five still in front. There is a hugh gap between the top three or four (plus an import or two) and the next 10 horses. The bottom six 50-to-1’ers are just pylons to navigate.

I expected my 6-6 doublay to be a cover bet, but it ended up too skinny to cover the other bets. I doubt I'll put any kids through college if I bet the race correctly.

Good Luck

[Wickel]

I continue to see Dunkirk as having the most upside. He definitely came from the best prep and was many lengths in front of the third-place horse. Papa Clem will take the field a long way before giving way, but will hang on for the exotics. I'm also including Chocolate Candy (who was gaining on Pioneer) and Hold Me Back. Good luck everyone.

[philofbelloni]

I really like the 4, Bear Now, in the Humana Distaff....should be abt 8 to 1
Agree wholeheartedly on Bear Now. Don't think we'll get that nice a price, though.

8th
Lemon Chiffon/Sugar Mint (Anyone know the reason behind Visit's scratch on 4/11???)
9th
Informed Decision/Bear Now
10th
Proudinsky/Einstein/Zambezi Sun (Proudinsky on soft turf = $$$)
11th
IWR/POTN/FF/(GQ or Choc Candy or DP)

$48 - final leg TBD based on weather

[Robert Fischer]

Friesan Fire to win (quietly a triple crown threat depending on who goes to Baltimore)

Revenge, Papa Clem, or Regal Ransom 2nd


Best 5 = 6 11 13 15 19

[Relwob Owner]

Agree wholeheartedly on Bear Now. Don't think we'll get that nice a price, though.

8th
Lemon Chiffon/Sugar Mint (Anyone know the reason behind Visit's scratch on 4/11???)
9th
Informed Decision/Bear Now
10th
Proudinsky/Einstein/Zambezi Sun (Proudinsky on soft turf = $$$)
11th
IWR/POTN/FF/(GQ or Choc Candy or DP)

$48 - final leg TBD based on weather


I think we may get a decent price...10/1 M/L so lets hope that holds:)

[FormalGold1]

Trifecta:

Friesan Fire, I Want Revenge/Frisan Fire, I Want Revenge/WSBernie,Musket Man, Mr. Hot Stuff,Chocolate Candy,Dunkirk,Pioneer,Summer Bird.

Using Friesan Fire in all the slots on other tickets.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

:6::13: / :3::6::11::13: / ALL / :2::3::6::11::13::17:

The longshot exacta play would look like this:

$1 exacta wheel/backwheel: :2::3::17: with ALL

.....and if two of those keys run first and second I'll be "moving to Fiji where the women don't wear no tops."

[Hajck Hillstrom]

:6::11: / :2::3::6::11: / ALL / :2::3::6::11::17: Superfecta

:2::3::17: / ALL : Exacta wheel/backwheel

[W2G]

This Derby looks light years different than it did a month or so ago. But my top pick is still there. Desert Party for the win and will build exotic tickets under and around him using FF, RR, CC, and FP. Huge day for the Godolphin royal blue.

Desert Party is the complete package, lacking only a big run in a major U.S. prep. The UAE Derby effort will prove to be plenty good enough. 19 hole will scare many away but Dominguez has a better chance to fashion a trip in the second flight from out there as opposed to being smothered inside.

FF is the complete package too but offers no value. Simple as that.

RR moves way up if it's sloppy and I'll hedge a bit in the win pool with him.

CC should be running at the end but not a threat for the win.

FP and Lukas. This colt is bred for the classics like few others in here. Lukas says he's better than Grindstone and as good as Charismatic. Lukas also remarked that FP suffered a breathing obstruction in the Ark Derby. Could crash into the super at a giant price.

19 // 6,10,11,20 // 6,10,11,20

[strapper]

My superfecta:
FREISIAN FIRE
HOLD ME BACK
CHOCOLATE CANDY
PIONEEROF THE NILE

[canleakid]

exacta box !!!!!!!!!!!

[ :15: / :16: / :1: / :6: / :12: ]

[harness2008]

$1 TRIPLE $42 total bet

:15:
:5: :6: :7: :12: :16: :19: :20:
:5: :6: :7: :12: :16: :19: :20:

Dunkirk all the way with some bombs for 2nd and 3rd

[Rookies]

TRI 6,16,19/6,16,19/1,5,6,7,15,16,19
EX 6,16,19/1,5,6,7,15,16,19
Pioneer to win

[Bobzilla]

My concerns are that this will be like 1999 when there was a moderate to slow pace. So it's ironic that my two favorites are both horses that will be off of it. I just feel I should go with the two I most feel are looking to advance forward in their current cycle and not try to get too cute with predicting the pace. I'm hoping Prado doesn't allow Dunkirk to fall too far behind in the early stages. Should there be more early action than anticipated I'm expecting a move up by Chocolate Candy.

Besides win bets on the two, I'll key both Dunkirk and Chocolate Candy to win in the superfecta with the hopes that the one who doesn't win finishes either 2nd, 3rd or 4th. It's the Derby. A day to take chances and hope you get lucky.

11,15/ 11,15/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,12,16,19/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,12,16,19
$180 for $1

11,15/ 3,10,16,19/ 11,15/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,12,16,19
$72 for $1

11,15/ 3,10,16,19 / 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,12,16,19/ 11,15
$72 for $1

[Viruss]

I'm Betting #:14: Atomic Rain Across the board

Exacta box :14: -:6: -:7: -:10:

Tri :6: :14: / :6: :14: /:1::2::7: :9: :10: :12: :15:

Tri :6: :14: / :1: :2: :7: :9: :10: :12: :15: /:6: :14:


Good Luck Earl J

[PaceAdvantage]

:15: Dunkirk
:2: Musket Man
:4: Advice
:6: Friesan Fire

[surfdog89]

Long shot Summer Bird..............

[Canarsie]

:6: :15:
:2: :6: :12: :15:
: :2: :6: :12: :15:
:2: :6: :7: :11: :12: :15: :16:

$1 exotics

Tri $12
Super $48

[Tom]

Topsiders:
:1: West Side Bernie
:6: Freisen Fire
:15: Dunkirk

Underneathers:
:16: POTN
:7: Pappa Clem
:19: Desert Party
:17: Summer Bird

[justin13892002]

1,6,3 ex bx
tri bx
1,6,3
ex
1,3,8
tri
16/168/38


GOOD LUCK BETTERS

[Red Knave]

I'm looking forward to this one.

I tossed POTN originally but decided that if I add him in he won't hurt me. :)

I like Musket Man on the rail today.

1:55 PM Churchill 11 WIN $10.00 6 $10.00 76453304828048
1:55 PM Churchill 11 WIN $5.00 2,7,15 $15.00 69755809907204
1:54 PM Churchill 11 EXA $1.00 10,19 / 2,6,7,17 $8.00 88806343995544
1:54 PM Churchill 11 EXA $3.00 2,6,7,17 / 2,6,7,15,17 $48.00 90203989312580
1:56 PM Churchill 11 EXA $1.00 16 / 2,7,17 $3.00 02327082689902

[superfecta]

1 dollar super

key 15 over 1,2,6,7

best longshot bet super

2/6,15/6,7,1,16/6,7,1,16

super hi five

:15: / :6: / :16: :1a: :2: / :1a: :2: :7: / :11: :17: :10:

[Garvin27]

Can't touch the exotics here. Trying #11 Chocolate Candy WP&S.

[Bobzilla]

Adjustment to Superfecta mentioned before. Adding MM to level 2 and SB to level 4.

11,15/ 11,15/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,12,16,19/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,12,16,17,19
$200 for $1

11,15/ 2,3,10,16,19/ 11,15/ 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,12,16,17,19
$100 for $1

11,15/ 2,3,10,16,19 / 1,2,3,5,6,7,10,12,16,19/ 11,15
$90 for $1


Good luck to everybody and let's hope the best horse wins and nobody gets hurt.

[joanied]

AAARRRGGGHHH...I had posted my picks...I can't find :confused: the stupid thing... and I typed out 3 different picks lists...cause I can't make up my mind:bang: DUH!!
No matter...toss 'em anyway....
1-Freisan Fire
2-Pioneerof the Nile
3-Dunkirk
4-Papa Clem
5-Hold Me Back

or:eek: ...
1-Freisan Fire
2-Pioneerof the Nile
3-Desert Party
4-Papa Clem
5-Hold me Back

Tah-Dah:jump:

Good luck to everyone here:)
And here's to a clean run race...every one home safe & sound:ThmbUp:
May the best horse win:)

[OnlineHorseRacing]

I like , I hope Desert Party and Hold me back keep there odds over 10-1 , I hoping for a nice payoff for the tri box.

6Friesan Fire19Desert Party5Hold me Back

[exactaplayer]

I posted these on another thread.
:6::9::7::10:
Boxed these in exa. Like the 7.

[exactaplayer]

19
with
6,7,15,16 top and bottom