Excel spread sheet for Harness (Update)

[Ray2000]

Excel spread sheet for Harness (Update)

I've added a new sheet to my "SulkyPicker" program that shows a diagram of the track and lets you advance the horses to the next call pole. This can be based on the current loaded race or you can manually set the parameters for Race Track, "Form", "Gate Speed" and "Driver Ability". In fact you don't even need a data file if you want to use the info from a track program or PDF program. (There's no typing, only a series of mouse clicks.)

The file name is SulkyPicker.zip and can be found at http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/ (http://members.localnet.com/~rayschell/)

The main sheet is trying to come up with a better Odds Line, this sheet is trying to show finishers based on trip, so the results will usually be different. There's an option to have the computer rate a horse's "Form" based on best odds or best performance-times trend.

Will not work for races with less than 6 or more than 10 horses or coupled entries. Races with double trailers or only meager past performance lines give poor results. I'm not 100% sure the Lightning Lane (Open Stretch) info is correct.

The spreadsheet works best on Excel 2007 but is compatible back to Version 10.65 (2002 SP3). It will not run on earlier Excels.
(Pickup truck and starting gate face the wrong way. :lol: )
I don't have the time or knowledge to fix it for older versions, so this sheet isn't in the SulkyPickerM file

You will need 1280x1024 32 bit color for best display but is usable at lower resolutions with some fussing with zoom settings.

Any comments or suggestions would be appreciated.



This is the original post (2008 version)
http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=44426 (http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=44426)

Hard to believe it's been over a year...:)

[Ray2000]

If you downloaded the new version before 9:00 pm today, there was an error. Only doing mile tracks. This has been corrected. Sorry:blush:

[Sinner369]

First of all I must say "Great Job" Ray...........I downloaded the SulkyPicker early
in 2008 but never got around to looking at it.

Finally I started to investigate the spreadsheet and I must say initially that it is still a "Great Job".

I downloader the latest version with a July 23/09 date on it. A few questions for you............

1) What is the main purpose of the program?.........Is it like the harness version of Alan Woods and Bill Benter Hong Kong program..............Compare computer generated odds with the actual people odds line and bet accordingly?

2) How is the Computer generated odds line............is it accurate and if it is........for what Tracks?

3) Are you using the program yourself?

sinner

[Ray2000]

Thx Sinner369

1)

The original purpose of the spreadsheet was to come up with a better predictor of the final tote board odds as compared to the Morning Line, which as my posts have mentioned, are absolutely terrible as some tracks. To do this, I found that simply 'ranking' many factors (those listed on page "Factors") and converting to an odds line, (I won't go into that here) came up with a more accurate line the ML at most tracks.

I proved this to myself by running a correlation factor between Morning Line and actual odds and then a correlation factor between the spreadsheet odds line and the actual odds for a large sample of races in 2007.
My spreadsheet odds were better but not as much as I had hoped.

So I added the page where one could vary the 'weight' or importance of the different factors and eventually put it up for anyone who wanted to experiment with finding a good combination of weights for their use. I also included my way of evaluating current form as one of the factors. Some users have told me that they like to find races where the Morning Line to Pick line ratio is high as a starting point in their own handicapping.

2)

As for the accuracy, I listed the correlation factors below BUT that is for all equal weight factors and didn't use form factor so I should redo those numbers. They probably won't change too much. The program doesn't do coupled entries or small fields or races where there just isn't enough info, like Maiden races. Those aren't counted.

3)

The spreadsheet is very similar to the one I use, except I rate the horses with a different method (not ranks) and include some modeling or where the horses might be at different points in the race based on their ability and likelihood to leave the gate with today's driver.

Good luck with it and let me know if I can be of any help.


SulkyPicker vs Actual Odds


Track Correl Count
FRD 0.720 1350
CALX 0.710 498
NFLD 0.704 1289
BMLP 0.702 678
STGA 0.701 894
MAY 0.689 464
WR 0.683 1121
M 0.679 1182
HAR 0.678 1662
WDB 0.673 1614
MOH 0.663 1950
PCD 0.658 1311
BR 0.657 915
MR 0.649 642
HOP 0.647 1527
HP 0.640 1202
GEOD 0.639 960
YR 0.636 1227
NP 0.636 1155
HM 0.592 483
PPK 0.592 711
HAW 0.585 504
SCD 0.576 815
FLMD 0.569 2784
LON 0.566 1956
KD 0.566 801
GRV 0.561 807
TGDN 0.560 573
VD 0.558 459
MEA 0.548 1479
FHLD 0.547 534
PRC 0.543 441
CHST 0.530 1356
ROCK 0.518 516
RIDC 0.492 2453



A score of 1.00 would be perfect, 0.0 is no relation at all

[Ray2000]

TrackMaster has changed the compression method on data files. The change is from RAR (16 bit) to Win RAR (32 bit) compression to allow 64 bit systems to access/expand the files. You may have noticed that there is a new icon.

Some people who have been using my Excel spreadsheet "SulkyPicker" are experiencing problems if they are using Vista Operating System and have "User Account Control" turned on. You will need to turn it off in the "User" control panel.