My Derby Picks, and Wagers

[pktruckdriver]

:( Yes even though I can not play with real money this year, that may be okay, as I see this as a pretty wide open derby, :confused: with over a dozen horses with the chance to win this race, and then you have the really good solid horses that , each in it's own right deserve's to be a favorite of sorts.


The Following numbers seem to stand out kinda right now, not in order...


:6: ,:13: ,:15: ,:16:


But then again there is a few other's too, not in order either...


:7: ,:2: ,:11: ,:10:, :5:,:17:



Those are the players so far and I am remiss in leaving a few underneather's off this list here, as I feel the exotic fill out will be a total crap shoot, but those are halve the field and I feel confident with them, and will later try to combine some wagering strategies with them, and keep in all under 50 and 100 bucks, using exacta's and tri's and maybe 1-2 super plays, so with that I wll be back later to finish this.


Good luck all

patrick

[Watcher]

This is what I'm thinking...

Trifecta

:6: :7: :13: :15: :16:
WT
:6: :7: :13: :15: :16: :2: :12: :17: :11: :14:
WT
:6: :7: :13: :15: :16: :2: :12: :17: :11: :5: :19: :14:

[wannano6]

Here is my 1st post and my $30.00 bet
:6: :17:
:6: :16: :17: :19:
:6: :7: :11: :12: :16: :17: :19:
As good as IWR looked in the Wood I am leaving him out. He gave up the lead to POTN while carrying 115 when POTN was carrying 122. Could be my demise.

After reading earliar posts I may slip the :5: in as well. :bang:

Good Luck To All.

P.S. Nice Forum

[pktruckdriver]

Watcher


You are not far from my thoughts there, just a little Pricey, but needed as I can not single anyone , yet.

1.00 is 450.00

2.00 at 900.00

5.00 at 2,250.00


Does anyone ever really bet that much, yeah probally, but not me.
Well I will try to get a more streamline set of wagers later today or tonight, as a muddy field may be able to let me cut quite a few off this list, and I may be able to concentrate on 1-3 horses and make more sensible wagers.

Patrick

[lilmegahertz]

I'm leaning towards a ticket like:

:6: -:13: -:15: -:16: -:19: in no order

with possible singles of:
:1:
:12:
:19:

Good luck and may they all please get home safe and sound when it's all over.:)

[WinterTriangle]

Does anyone ever really bet that much, yeah probally

Well, ask yourself this: if you had all the money in the world and plopped it down on a wager that included 60% of the field, is that really handicapping?

Most people who wager the KY derby have never ridden a horse, have never owned a horse, or even been around any kind of horse up close, walking them, feeding them, every day. :)

To me, it's like the difference between a really good computer programmer of olden days, who could write ELEGANT, simple, well designed code..... and nail it. Unlike the bloated software/code we have today that needs unbelievable amounts of memory to even run.

Same concept. Either people can pick the decent horses out of a field or they can't. When you have to use 70% of a 20 horse field in your wager, it's sort of not handicapping anymore, it's more about bankroll and keeping fingers crossed?

[joanied]

Well, ask yourself this: if you had all the money in the world and plopped it down on a wager that included 60% of the field, is that really handicapping?

Most people who wager the KY derby have never ridden a horse, have never owned a horse, or even been around any kind of horse up close, walking them, feeding them, every day. :)

To me, it's like the difference between a really good computer programmer of olden days, who could write ELEGANT, simple, well designed code..... and nail it. Unlike the bloated software/code we have today that needs unbelievable amounts of memory to even run.

Same concept. Either people can pick the decent horses out of a field or they can't. When you have to use 70% of a 20 horse field in your wager, it's sort of not handicapping anymore, it's more about bankroll and keeping fingers crossed?

:ThmbUp:

[facorsig]

Patrick - I know how keen you are about "hitting the big one" from the Derby. Given the economic downturn, I am offering to play your combination in an exacta for you. If your combination is successful, I will send you the proceeds (minus the wager cost). If your combination loses, no worries, we had a good run. I note your picks are:

The Following numbers seem to stand out kinda right now, not in order...


:6: ,:13: ,:15: ,:16:


But then again there is a few other's too, not in order either...


:7: ,:2: ,:11: ,:10:, :5:,:17:

My plan is to put the first selections over the second selections for exacta combinations.

Fred

[pktruckdriver]

Fred I would be overwhelmed with your confidence in my prowess.


How will you structure the play, with the possible top 4 contenders, or would I need to structure something?

I a way I am kinda glad I am broke this year, this is one tough Derby and so many truly have a chance to win.

Fresian Fire Stands out/accellerated on a sloppy track and Mr. Jones http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/UBGX/I9.gif

Pioneer of the Nile Could get up

I want Revenge Must be considered/ has lucky Joe

Dunkirk unknown/major ability is in there

Desert Party Last was a throw out/ Go Dolphins, almost


================================================== ===

Then you have all the underneath horses, and there are many of them, heck almost all of them actually but will have to put'em up later

[facorsig]

I will submit a ticket:

$1 Ex :6::13::15::16:/:2::5::7::10::11::17: unless you suggest something different!

Fred

[ranchwest]

Right now I'm thinking I have it down to six horses:

5,6,12,13,15,20

[pktruckdriver]

Fred


I would also suggest boxing the top 4 together, and if you desire putting them on bottom too, but this should only be done if the exacta payoffs could support the move.

http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/16.jpg 4/6/11/13
4/6/11/13


http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/19.jpg
6/10/11/13
6/10/11/13

http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg
6/7/15/16
6/7/15/16


Those are some trifecta's at a small price, 12.00 for a buck, real hard to pick so few with a race like this, but since I am not playing I can try to do the best I can, no guarantees here, but many will probally see no faults with these picks and many may consider putting them into the 2nd and maybe 3rd slot too, but that must be your choice , and play at your own risk.



http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/6.jpg
http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/16.jpg http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/15.jpg
http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/15.jpg http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/16.jpg
http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/19.jpg http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/6.jpg http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/4.jpg http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/5.jpg http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/11.jpg http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/13.jpg http://paceadvantage.com/forum/images/SCNums/10.jpg


Do not play, we will see what happens, as my pride made me put this up.


Good luck all
may the derby gods smile upon you today

Patrick


PS: I will be working all day, actually all weekend again

[facorsig]

With scratch to 13, how would you play? You were all over I Want Revenge!

Fred

[pktruckdriver]

Fred I would replace the :13: with different horse for different bets.


Underneath I would replace him with the following



:4: :5: :12:



On Top it would be

:19: or :11:




I do kinda see :6: having his way here now, unless a major mishap happens , the race is his to lose, and all others will be nipping at his hoooves...



Good lluck all

patrick