Hold Me Back could well be the value play

[Derbyman32]

Based on Hold Me Backs last 2 races and the way he has trained at Churchill I think he will be a major force in the stretch this year. I do think their is enough pace to give him a great shot and I hope he stays in the 15-1 range.

I hope that Mott wins a Derby and maybe this is the one. I have watched his progress since arriving at Churchill and he has not missed a beat. Go up to Ralph's thread on workouts and check him out he looks ready to go. I know his only bad race was on the dirt but it was not Churchill's dirt which can make a difference and Mott said he was not himself that day he ran bad.

Now if I can just figure out who to key him with, I know I am using IWR and FF. Maybe Dunkirk and West Side Bernie. Still in decision mode on others.

[fmolf]

Based on Hold Me Backs last 2 races and the way he has trained at Churchill I think he will be a major force in the stretch this year. I do think their is enough pace to give him a great shot and I hope he stays in the 15-1 range.

I hope that Mott wins a Derby and maybe this is the one. I have watched his progress since arriving at Churchill and he has not missed a beat. Go up to Ralph's thread on workouts and check him out he looks ready to go. I know his only bad race was on the dirt but it was not Churchill's dirt which can make a difference and Mott said he was not himself that day he ran bad.

Now if I can just figure out who to key him with, I know I am using IWR and FF. Maybe Dunkirk and West Side Bernie. Still in decision mode on others.
i am going to bet hold me back and another horse i feel is peaking at the right time west side bernie. i like hold me backs jock better though

[Run Nicholas Run]

HOLD ME BACK does come up for me on a pretty
strong angle I use for the derby (14 of the last 18 years)
so he is LIVE. ;) :5:

[Rapid Grey]

Hold Me Back's Remsen was not that bad imo. He got a 77 Beyer for basically a non-effort, and his rider, John V., pretty much wrapped up on him the last 1/8th. As a developing two year old that is not a bad number and projects to run a 95 to 100 Beyer tomorrow, which should put him in the money.

Not sure about the win but I agree, this is a very live horse to use underneath.

[Bobzilla]

Hold Me Back's Remsen was not that bad imo. He got a 77 Beyer for basically a non-effort, and his rider, John V., pretty much wrapped up on him the last 1/8th. As a developing two year old that is not a bad number and projects to run a 95 to 100 Beyer tomorrow, which should put him in the money.

Not sure about the win but I agree, this is a very live horse to use underneath.


I agree. HMB's Remsen doesn't say anything about his potential dirt form. All it showed me is what happens when a lightly raced two year old has an extremely disadvantageous trip, hung wide and towards the back behind pedestrian fractions. The dynamics of the 2008 Remsen were the kind that would favor those with tactical and geometric advantages. HMB had none of the above and became an also ran.

I suspect there is some ability here and though I'm still studying the race and won't finalize my opinions until tomorrow, based on what I've studied till now this horse might offer the best value relative to his true chances of hitting the board.

What concerns me about this race is the pace scenario. Just because there will be some horses positioned up front doesn't in any way guarantee a pace. This race looks to me like a race that could easily become like the 1999 Derby when there was very little, at least by Derby standards, and there were many runners who never had a chance, mostly because of being in tight. So my only concern at this time about HMB's chances of making the top 4 is that he might be bottled up and not have any chance to make a meaningful move due to a moderate to slow pace.

[JBmadera]

He's my pick as well (not good for ya'll based on how cold I've been....:eek: ), I agree that his only dirt race is a toss and I expect him to really move forward tomorrow. I'm going to key box him with :6: ,:7: ,:11: and see what happens.


btw - I sat in on one of those KD blog sessions and Evan said he looked awesome on the track....:ThmbUp:

JB

[Rapid Grey]

What concerns me about this race is the pace scenario. Just because there will be some horses positioned up front doesn't in any way guarantee a pace. This race looks to me like a race that could easily become like the 1999 Derby when there was very little, at least by Derby standards, and there were many runners who never had a chance, mostly because of being in tight. So my only concern at this time about HMB's chances of making the top 4 is that he might be bottled up and not have any chance to make a meaningful move due to a moderate to slow pace.

I'm concerned as well. HMB doesn't have the tactical speed that Desormeaux's other Derby winners did, more of a one run deep closer that would benefit from a fast pace. Hopefully Join in the Dance and Regal Ransom do show the speed expected and Friesan Fire adds to the pace as well. Would think that Desormeaux trys to save ground the first 1/2 mile of the race and start picking off horses going into the 2nd turn. Moving fastest of all coming out of the turn and finding his way into the top 3. With 20 betting interests if you get him in the Tri it would still figure to be a signer, even with a favorite on top.

[overthehill]

if you all like hold me back, why wouldnt you like general quarters as well? he beat him in last and figures to get a much better trip. if he gets off ok he should be no worst than 5th going into the first turn and is bred to go the distance. I think both gq and hmb have been underrated in the ml.

[Irish Boy]

I think the Remsen is about what you can probably expect from this horse. His trip wasn't that bad, and as a one-move closer that's what he's going to have to expect from here on out. The fractions left him without a chance, but that doesn't explain the drop back 14 lengths. I could see him hitting the board if the pace unexpectedly heats up and draws in a lot of the front runner/presser types, so maybe consider him on the bottom end of exotics if you like Dunkirk.

[JBmadera]

if you all like hold me back, why wouldnt you like general quarters as well? he beat him in last and figures to get a much better trip. if he gets off ok he should be no worst than 5th going into the first turn and is bred to go the distance. I think both gq and hmb have been underrated in the ml.

GQ could be right there - I am looking at HMB's form cycle, which I think indicates a big move forward, plus I really like his PED and the reports about his fitness/how he took to the track.

GL!

jb

[Derbyman32]

Hi all, I am sticking with Hold Me Back and going to add Desert Party to my exacta's and tri's. So I am just anxiously awaiting the race while I enjoy the Oaks today.

May try a Oaks, Woodford, Derby Pick 3 and use Rachel as a hopefully free square ;)

Good Skill and Luck to all

Derbyman32

[46zilzal]

I have a tough time with a colt who's only breaktrough races have been on the syntho-garbage. Turfways lines are known to transfer too fast

[Sabong]

He is already & going to get too much play. If anything I think he is going to be the main underlay.