Andy Beyer's take on the Derby

[CBedo]

On the Washington Post site, there is a video clip with Beyer predicting the derby. He thinks I Want Revenge is a clear standout, with only Friesan Fire and Dunkirk maybe being competition. He also gives Papa Clem, Regal Ransom, and Desert Party some slight chance.

He thinks the biggest throwout of the major contenders is Pioneer of the Nile. He says that he will be trying to make money by taking a position against this horse.

[LemonSoupKid]

I didn't get to read it yet, but I can see him hemming and hawing at the Beyers of Pioneer of the Nile. All the others you mentioned (save for the UAE horses) were all 100+ Beyers.

The problem is that Beyers aren't very trustworthy this year. I wonder how everyone might change their handicapping due to the rain, as well.

[Sabong]

He sees it much like I do.

[W2G]

I like Andy, he's a giant in this sport.

But if you like IWR, this news has to hurt.

[46zilzal]

He thinks the biggest throwout of the major contenders is Pioneerof the Nile. He says that he will be trying to make money by taking a position against this horse.
Frankly I like that courageous little colt, BUT his running lines don't match up akin to Colonel John last year: TOO SLOW at all the calls.

LOGIC dictates that I Want Revenge can run on both the dirt and the synthogarbage and has progressed but he has shown a tendency to be too far back in all his races. In a field this size LUCK will have to be in his pocket as Rampage and Rumbo and countless others have discovered. Even the Great Native Dancer was too far back, but that was, and is, how racing luck favors the front runners: no TRAFFIC problems

[gm10]

Frankly I like that courageous little colt, BUT his running lines don't match up akin to Colonel John last year: TOO SLOW at all the calls.

LOGIC dictates that I Want Revenge can run on both the dirt and the synthogarbage and has progressed but he has shown a tendency to be too far back in all his races. In a field this size LUCK will have to be in his pocket as Rampage and Rumbo and countless others have discovered. Even the Great Native Dancer was too far back, but that was, and is, how racing luck favors the front runners: no TRAFFIC problems

i like pioneer as well
i have his numbers as higher than colonel john's

there is no standout imo

P.S. If Andy wants to make money by going agst Pioneer, he should lay it on betfair

[Greyfox]

Andy Beyer is a great columnist.
When it comes to The Kentucky Derby, I think that he might have picked a winner once.

[Bettowin]

i like pioneer as well
i have his numbers as higher than colonel john's

there is no standout imo

P.S. If Andy wants to make money by going agst Pioneer, he should lay it on betfair


Isn't Andy a US citizen? Betfair won't let me place bets because of my US citizenship.

[LemonSoupKid]

Frankly I like that courageous little colt, BUT his running lines don't match up akin to Colonel John last year: TOO SLOW at all the calls.

LOGIC dictates that I Want Revenge can run on both the dirt and the synthogarbage and has progressed but he has shown a tendency to be too far back in all his races. In a field this size LUCK will have to be in his pocket as Rampage and Rumbo and countless others have discovered. Even the Great Native Dancer was too far back, but that was, and is, how racing luck favors the front runners: no TRAFFIC problems

Why can't POTN run on both? Could being "too slow at the calls" have more to do with the type of race rather than the horse? Things to think about. Being a winner and improving at the right time is more important than perceived differences in speed. The surfaces and the styles are too hard to compare.

One thing I do agree with is that I don't want any piece of late runners in this, especially if the track is off. I'll see if I can get lucky on a couple coming from late as a score, but the odds on wet track is that the leaders will enjoy kicking stuff back in the other guys faces.

[46zilzal]

Why can't POTN run on both? Could being "too slow at the calls" have more to do with the type of race rather than the horse?
Not only is this guy too slow at all calls but his energy distribution puts him amongst that gang of late movers who will be bumping into one another and several will not get through, BUT now looking him over again, HIS LAST did move him into the arena of normalcy (% median wise at 67.2)

[Bubba X]

Some year, maybe this year, a horse that has been running on synthetic is going to win the Derby. It could be POTN; then again, it might be a horse that has been getting beat by 5 lengths that, for whatever reason, is just far superior on real dirt vs artificial. Obviously, this offers a half dozen or so horses but aside from POTN, the rest should all be pretty big numbers.

Just theorizing here.

[46zilzal]

Some year, maybe this year, a horse that has been running on synthetic is going to win the Derby. It could be POTN; then again, it might be a horse that has been getting beat by 5 lengths that, for whatever reason, is just far superior on real dirt vs artificial. Obviously, this offers a half dozen or so horses but aside from POTN, the rest should all be pretty big numbers.

Just theorizing here.
I would wager it will be one who did well on both like a Street Sense of Hard Spun

[Bubba X]

I would wager it will be one who did well on both like a Street Sense of Hard Spun
Well, that gives Papa Clem and Gen Quarters, I suppose. Both have, I think, some shot. If one's willing to consider those with a single, at least somewhat tough trip, dirt race, you also get Hold Me Back and Advice.

[OTM Al]

Andy Beyer is a great columnist.
When it comes to The Kentucky Derby, I think that he might have picked a winner once.

He's due!

[Robert Fischer]

:jump:

[toussaud]

I don't believe one wille ver win the derby becuase I doubt we have synethics for more than 5 more years if that.

I think POTN is the oddball of the socal group becuase I dont' think he's particually bred for dirt as I have previous elluded to. Whereas IWR and papa clem are

[Tom]

If POTN presses, or even run in the fornt half, I doubt he can win.
If he sits in the back, and if no one draws of at the top of the stretch, he should be running them down late. He needs help to win, and without the Quality Road/Dunkirk hook up at a mile or so, he may not get it.

I think there is a good change a presser will find himself in position to open up three or four at the top of the stretch and not get caught. Who is the question, though???????

Could it be the Wood runner up?

[Irish Boy]

Not unless they're giving War Pass a chance to try this year.

[Relwob Owner]

Frankly I like that courageous little colt, BUT his running lines don't match up akin to Colonel John last year: TOO SLOW at all the calls.

LOGIC dictates that I Want Revenge can run on both the dirt and the synthogarbage and has progressed but he has shown a tendency to be too far back in all his races. In a field this size LUCK will have to be in his pocket as Rampage and Rumbo and countless others have discovered. Even the Great Native Dancer was too far back, but that was, and is, how racing luck favors the front runners: no TRAFFIC problems


I Want Revenge does not have a tendency to be far back at all in his races....which races are you looking at which would lead you to believe this? the one race where he started well behind was a 6 furlong sprint where they went 21 and one and 43 and 4......IWR will be just off the first bunch in the Derby and will be in the perfect spot to win if he has the goods.

[fmolf]

if you like iwr beyer just killed whatever price you could hope to get!

[toussaud]

I Want Revenge does not have a tendency to be far back at all in his races....which races are you looking at which would lead you to believe this? the one race where he started well behind was a 6 furlong sprint where they went 21 and one and 43 and 4......IWR will be just off the first bunch in the Derby and will be in the perfect spot to win if he has the goods.
the cashall futurity he was not close whatsoever. about 10 or so off the lead.

I don't think he was right off the lead in the robert b. lewis either althoughI could be wrong. I know papa clem was right off the lead that brother keith set and I think both pioneerof the nile and i want revenge were about 7 or 8 back

[46zilzal]

I Want Revenge does not have a tendency to be far back at all in his races....which races are you looking at which would lead you to believe this? the one race where he started well behind was a 6 furlong sprint where they went 21 and one and 43 and 4......IWR will be just off the first bunch in the Derby and will be in the perfect spot to win if he has the goods.
FOR THE MILLIONTH TIME, energy distribution wise NOT POSITIONALLY

LAST four LATE LATE LATE LATE

[Relwob Owner]

FOR THE MILLIONTH TIME, energy distribution wise NOT POSITIONALLY


Just cause you say something a million times, doesnt mean I buy your energy distribution argument....

[Relwob Owner]

the cashall futurity he was not close whatsoever. about 10 or so off the lead.

I don't think he was right off the lead in the robert b. lewis either althoughI could be wrong. I know papa clem was right off the lead that brother keith set and I think both pioneerof the nile and i want revenge were about 7 or 8 back


More incorrect info from your end.....never 10 or so off the lead in the Cashcall-was 4, then 3 and a half, then 5 3/4, then 1 and a half and then missed by a nose. Plus, it was clear in this race that they were trying to get him to rate. In the Lewis, he sat third by 3 lengths thru 23 and 1 and 47 flat and moved....then, in the Gotham, he was a half a length off a 23 and 3 quarter and dominated from there....


You referenced two races and were incorrect both times. You say you study races a lot but your info does not reflect it. If I am wrong, please correct me but the inaccuracy of your above post tells the tale.....

[toussaud]

More incorrect info from your end.....never 10 or so off the lead in the Cashcall-was 4, then 3 and a half, then 5 3/4, then 1 and a half and then missed by a nose. Plus, it was clear in this race that they were trying to get him to rate. In the Lewis, he sat third by 3 lengths thru 23 and 1 and 47 flat and moved....then, in the Gotham, he was a half a length off a 23 and 3 quarter and dominated from there....


You referenced two races and were incorrect both times. You say you study races a lot but your info does not reflect it. If I am wrong, please correct me but the inaccuracy of your above post tells the tale.....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_YNwRPoEOY

to quote Vic..

"I want revenge is in 4th he's about 7 from the front" at about the 39 second mark

this is pathetic. If you are going to do nothing but go though and pick apart people's arguements, it's pointless even posting int his forum. no one is doing nothing but offering their opinions. It's not like I made that 7-10 up off the top of my head, I got it from vic stauffer.

I don't use speed figures or past performances, I have said that a million times now, beucase you miss stuff like that... that IWR sat a little off the lead and settled up before they hit the pole.

[GaryG]

I don't use speed figures or past performances.Ouija board?

[Relwob Owner]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_YNwRPoEOY

to quote Vic..

"I want revenge is in 4th he's about 7 from the front" at about the 39 second mark

this is pathetic. If you are going to do nothing but go though and pick apart people's arguements, it's pointless even posting int his forum. no one is doing nothing but offering their opinions. It's not like I made that 7-10 up off the top of my head, I got it from vic stauffer.

I don't use speed figures or past performances, I have said that a million times now, beucase you miss stuff like that... that IWR sat a little off the lead and settled up before they hit the pole.


Actually, I only pick apart yours because you continually state things as fact that are incorrect....if you are going to take what a race caller says over what the chart person does, good luck to ya....


You have thrown out the same, inaccurate ideas on other threads. I hate it when people throw out things as facts when they arent true and that is the majority of what you do.

I have no problems with opinions at all and I realize the point of the forum. However, after reading your many posts, I got tired of the fact that you make bold proclamations and use non truths to back them up.....look at some of the replies to your posts and you can see that I am not the only one frustrated by you.


Maybe me staying on you will make you think a bit more before randomly saying things and starting threads(my favorite is the 9 day switch between IWR being a "fraud" and now one of only two and a half that you think can win the Derby)....heck, you just tagged yourself in your above post by saying that IWR was a "little off the lead"-wait, wasnt it 7 to 10??? As far as I can tell so far, you get what you give on this Forum and when you write crap, you get crap back

[Relwob Owner]

Ouija board?


eeennny meenny miiiinneeyyy mooooooohhhh

[Bubba X]

crap

[46zilzal]

Just cause you say something a million times, doesnt mean I buy your energy distribution argument....
Fine fall in line with the crowd..Okay by me

[tribecaagent]

Speed and pace figures on synthetic are next to meaningless if the horse is untested on dirt. It's pure speculation. It's very possible that one (or more) will explode on dirt.

Which ones are untested on dirt?

[46zilzal]

Speed and pace figures on synthetic are next to meaningless if the horse is untested on dirt. It's pure speculation. It's very possible that one (or more) will explode on dirt.


In the past few years only Street Sense fit that bill behind the improving early Hard Spun. The rest were still running that day after the race was over.

[sally]

where would you point me to learn more about this energy distribution method you use? If you don't mind...

[tribecaagent]

Hold Me Back has one race as a two-year-old that can be excused.
Mr. Hot Stuff is untested.
Pioneerof the Nile is untested.

Anyone can talk about numbers, trip, running style, stride, etc. It's all a guess when talking about these three.

[46zilzal]

where would you point me to learn more about this energy distribution method you use? If you don't mind...
at a yahoo group called Sartin Alums or
http://paceandcap.com/forums/

Incremental velocity and energy distribution compared to one another and the track model gleaned from previous contests helps predict the winner that fist both the model and the match up.

Laguna Beach? wow another Orange Countian. I graduated from Santa Ana Valley High School many moons ago when it was safe to walk the halls there.

[sally]

Thank you 46!! :)

[slew101]

I think Beyer said last year Big Brown was a complete throw out. I'd like to see a chart on his Derby picks over the last 25 years. Not to knock him, just to see how many he picked.

[rastajenk]

For some reason he often goes against his numbers and his own instincts. Overcooks it, you might say. Probably a reflection of his basic gambler's inclination to go against the flow, beat the favorite, and all that.

[Relwob Owner]

I think Beyer said last year Big Brown was a complete throw out. I'd like to see a chart on his Derby picks over the last 25 years. Not to knock him, just to see how many he picked.

As being someone who has followed Beyer closely for over 25 years, i can tell you that he has picked very, very few Derby winners. He has done so poorly picking that I believe he has often referenced his own futility in his articles.

[Saratoga_Mike]

People have the right to their own opinions, not their own facts.

[santanajimi]

I think Beyer said last year Big Brown was a complete throw out. I'd like to see a chart on his Derby picks over the last 25 years. Not to knock him, just to see how many he picked.


Beyer and all the supposed sharp guys were against Big Brown last year...
Is it possible he might have the winner THIS year? Absolutely! But i have a feeling he is being influenced by another guy that actually posts here, that hates POTN to hit the board.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Beyer and all the supposed sharp guys were against Big Brown last year...
Is it possible he might have the winner THIS year? Absolutely! But i have a feeling he is being influenced by another guy that actually posts here, that hates POTN to hit the board.

Beyer's record on picking Derby winners ranks right up there with mine -- pretty lousy. From your post, I assume Beyer doesn't like POTN? I don't either. That may make him a lock!

[Run Nicholas Run]

Beyer's record on picking Derby winners ranks right up there with mine -- pretty lousy. From your post, I assume Beyer doesn't like POTN? I don't either. That may make him a lock!

Thats a good one Mike.

Dont want to see Ric Flair get another derby win 2 is enough
(war emblem doesnt count). :mad:

[Market Mover]

Of course he's against any horse who's dominated on the synthetic, like POTN, because this has hurt the reputation and created even more doubters to the "Beyer Speed Figures."

I tell you what, take all synthetic Beyers and add 5...or 10....and then make comparisons...

The problem with Andy Beyer's selections since the introduction of synthetic racing is that his theories do not hold up on these surfaces, and hence he'll always be biased towards conventional dirt performers...

[PaceAdvantage]

Of course he's against any horse who's dominated on the synthetic, like POTN, because this has hurt the reputation and created even more doubters to the "Beyer Speed Figures."

I tell you what, take all synthetic Beyers and add 5...or 10....and then make comparisons...

The problem with Andy Beyer's selections since the introduction of synthetic racing is that his theories do not hold up on these surfaces, and hence he'll always be biased towards conventional dirt performers...Who picked the winner of the Breeders' Cup classic last year? I'll give you a hint...his initials are AB.

And I disagree with your first premise. I don't think synthetics have hurt the reputation of Beyer or his speed figs. They've actually hurt the reputation of the ENTIRE GAME. But that's another story altogether.

The figures are what the figures are, and what they will always be...it's not Beyer's fault you can't use his figures effectively on synths...but there will always be someone else out there taking your money who can....

[kenwoodallpromos]

Since my pick, Musket Man, is stuck in the 2 post and will lose only due to traffic, I have to ask- Who is the best Derby jockey in traffic?

[Will Power]

Beyer has put me on some good horses in the past: Cajun Beat in the BC Sprint '03 (for sure), and maybe War Emblem and Charismatic in the KDerby (both had high Beyer last race SR's).

I also agree with most of his analysis in this years KDerby:
http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2009/chatsbeyer.html

Beyer has done what most of us dream of; make their living by playing the horses. He is fallible, but he puts his money UP!!

My question is......

what are the Sheets guys thinking?

Seriously, did anyone tune in? what are the Sheets guys thinking?

I have a feeling that they are on the same page as AB this year.

[Relwob Owner]

Of course he's against any horse who's dominated on the synthetic, like POTN, because this has hurt the reputation and created even more doubters to the "Beyer Speed Figures."

I tell you what, take all synthetic Beyers and add 5...or 10....and then make comparisons...

The problem with Andy Beyer's selections since the introduction of synthetic racing is that his theories do not hold up on these surfaces, and hence he'll always be biased towards conventional dirt performers...


One thing about Beyer is that he adapts to the times and seems to admit when he has missed/not considered other factors...when his first book came out, it was all about the figures and that was it....in subsequent books, he readily admitted that pace and trip factors were things that he needed to consider, along with others.....this leads me to think he will take a look at synthetics and adjust as well as he moves forward....

I personally love the guy and his figures but for whatever reason, he is usually cold in the Derby....hope he stays that way this year....

[gm10]

Since my pick, Musket Man, is stuck in the 2 post and will lose only due to traffic, I have to ask- Who is the best Derby jockey in traffic?

leparoux in the sense that he will avoid it
nice longshot he is on

[miesque]

One thing about Beyer is that he adapts to the times and seems to admit when he has missed/not considered other factors...when his first book came out, it was all about the figures and that was it....in subsequent books, he readily admitted that pace and trip factors were things that he needed to consider, along with others.....this leads me to think he will take a look at synthetics and adjust as well as he moves forward....

I personally love the guy and his figures but for whatever reason, he is usually cold in the Derby....hope he stays that way this year....


Thats pretty much my sentiments as well, .

The thing is, as was pointed out by PA, Beyer did correctly predict the winner of the Breeders Cup Classic and that was a horse coming in from Europe who had never officially been assigned a single Beyer Speed Figure prior to that race. Last night I read the transcripts for the three DRF Chats and in Beyer's he noted that over the next few weeks they would be reviewing their methodology regarding synthetic Beyers and perhaps making a few changes and I was happy to read that. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Beyer, but the synthetic Beyers currently are simply not as useful as they are on dirt and I don't think I am the only one who almost automatically makes some adjustments when looking at them. Beyer is certainly astute enough to realize that and I would not be surprised to see their reliability improve.

The one point that I think all of us can agree with is that handicapping on synthetic is different then conventional dirt. I have from the beginning and continue to view that as an opportunity. It is my opinion that synthetic handicapping rewards those taking a more comprehensive approach to handicapping. There is less of an emphasis on speed figs and a greater emphasis in factors such as class and conditioning. Over the last several years I have become more and more interested in turf racing because I find it more enjoyable to cap and watch and its also more fulfilling to follow at the upper levels, especially compared to the TC Trail where there is brief brilliance followed by a disappearance into oblivion for so many. One of my favorite attributes about turf is the late acceleration aspect and I happen to really like the fact that synthetics allow for that, some more then others. I know there are many who despise that aspect of synthetics, but I personally like it.

[Saratoga_Mike]

Of course he's against any horse who's dominated on the synthetic, like POTN, because this has hurt the reputation and created even more doubters to the "Beyer Speed Figures."

I tell you what, take all synthetic Beyers and add 5...or 10....and then make comparisons...

The problem with Andy Beyer's selections since the introduction of synthetic racing is that his theories do not hold up on these surfaces, and hence he'll always be biased towards conventional dirt performers...

If it were as simple as adding 5 to 10 points to existing Beyers, the Beyer organization already would have made the adjustment.

In any case, Andy and my Derby selections were lousy long before the introduction of synthetic racing surfaces.

[NYPlayer]

My question is......

what are the Sheets guys thinking?




You can download The Sheets Seminar on line - www.thesheets.com (http://www.thesheets.com/)

Concerning the top three, Len Friedman of The Sheets says that Friesan Fire has the best chance of being in the money, while Dunkirk has the single best chance of winning. He rates both horses approximately equal. He does not like IWR.

[Will Power]

Thanks NY

[Greyfox]

You can download The Sheets Seminar on line - www.thesheets.com (http://www.thesheets.com/)

Concerning the top three, Len Friedman of The Sheets says that Friesan Fire has the best chance of being in the money, while Dunkirk has the single best chance of winning. He rates both horses approximately equal. He does not like IWR.

Thank you for the link.
Maybe it was my lack of know how,
but I didn't find anything there free.

As I do my own handicapping, I don't need to be charged for a second opinion.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Without Beyer and Sheldon Kovitz there would be no figure handicapping.The guy is a revoutionary and we are all in his debt.He doesn't have to be right by a race like this,as it's unique as no other.But his methodology in whatever it has been transformed into by other resources is as close to an absolute measure that exists.

Imo,combined with the art of form interpretation it's the best synthesis of ideals,class notwithstanding.

I don't think tommorrow yields any profitability,as is most days,if you are a win and/or place bettor.It looks chalky.But the diehards on here that insist the unbeatable game is precedented on that are wrong.Exotics allow an average smart player to beat the game and I think this Derby is no different.

[riskman]

Thank you for the link.
Maybe it was my lack of know how,
but I didn't find anything there free.

As I do my own handicapping, I don't need to be charged for a second opinion.

But if the info were free, would you consider a second opinion? :)

[NYPlayer]

Thank you for the link.
Maybe it was my lack of know how,
but I didn't find anything there free.

As I do my own handicapping, I don't need to be charged for a second opinion.

They do charge for the seminar online. It includes an opinion of every horse and Len Friedman's general outlook for the Derby.

As it turns out, you didn't miss anything. Friedman rated every horse from "A" to "F". No horse rated an A. Friesan Fire and Dunkirk scored a B+. Borel's horse rated an F, but he ran an A+ race.

So the lesson is, just because someone isn't liked by their teachers, doesn't mean they can't do something really, really, big!