OTM Al
04-30-2009, 10:54 AM
The numbers people had a heyday in 2006 with the 8-13-2 triple finish. In looking at the derby logo of that year, the horse pictured was #8 and the only other number appearing was 132, as in the 132nd running. In fact, #8 that year was a TC winner with Bernardini in the Preakness and Jazil in the Belmont carying home the pink and black to the winner's circle.
So what do we have this year? The logo this year is a bit uninspired. A horse shoe with just the 135th running. Must say I'm down with the 13 in this race and have been for a couple months now, but this 5 thing just doesn't work out for me. Hold Me Back isn't even going to need to be held back in this one as he isn't going to be even close at the end. So what to do with this 5? Hmmmm.....Dunkirk is 15, but that gives me an extra 1. Well, I do think Bernie can hit the board, so how about a 13-1-15 triple...I can live with that.
Seriously though, the one numerology I do is a point based checklist. 14 maximum points. More than 3 strikes and you are completely out. Its based on a lot of those rules you here get broken these days, but that's fine. I just think if you still have too many of those strikes against you, there is little real chance. So what did I get?
14pts: Papa Clem.
Okay, this surprised me. I probably would have wavered on this guy, but now I have to put him solidly in. Maybe even a small back up for win, but doubtful as I hate hedging.
13pts: Chocolate Candy, General Quarters, I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile, West Side Bernie, Regal Ransom, Desert Party.
This tells me this is still a pretty competative race. I am likely not going to use General Quarters. Reports of his works have been bad. Desert Party is in only if the track is a bit wet. Like seeing Bernie here as he was my price horse. Was a bit wavery on CC as well, but will have to use underneath now.
12pts: Friesian Fire, Advice
Well, FF is an underneath for me, but I simply have no faith in him winning. He never could get past the biggest of the big dogs last year and think he'll be short again. Wet really doesn't matter to me as much as others. that last big number was the kind I always discount a bit anyway because of the big margin. Advice is a bit of a surprise. Just can't use him
11pts: Dunkirk, Musket Man, Hold Me Back, Join in The Dance, Atomic Rain
Nothing we didn't know here. Dunkirk is the one that is the trend bucker poster boy this year. He has talent, but I likely do not even use him as high as 2nd. His Unbridled's Song parantage has me worried about him every time he races. Not using any of the rest. MM is a great one for those second level Derbies across the country this year. Makes me think a bit about Pollard's Vision who I really loved. He may get his brief flash in this Derby, but it isn't going to last.
Auto Toss: Mr. Hot Stuff, Mine that Bird, Summer Bird, Nowhere to Hide, Flying Private.
Ought to have another catagory next year. Still eligible for a NW1X. If its true, you got no business here. 4 of these fit that bill and the other is just plain slow anyway.
So a lot of confirmation for earlier opinions and a little new food for thought.
So what do we have this year? The logo this year is a bit uninspired. A horse shoe with just the 135th running. Must say I'm down with the 13 in this race and have been for a couple months now, but this 5 thing just doesn't work out for me. Hold Me Back isn't even going to need to be held back in this one as he isn't going to be even close at the end. So what to do with this 5? Hmmmm.....Dunkirk is 15, but that gives me an extra 1. Well, I do think Bernie can hit the board, so how about a 13-1-15 triple...I can live with that.
Seriously though, the one numerology I do is a point based checklist. 14 maximum points. More than 3 strikes and you are completely out. Its based on a lot of those rules you here get broken these days, but that's fine. I just think if you still have too many of those strikes against you, there is little real chance. So what did I get?
14pts: Papa Clem.
Okay, this surprised me. I probably would have wavered on this guy, but now I have to put him solidly in. Maybe even a small back up for win, but doubtful as I hate hedging.
13pts: Chocolate Candy, General Quarters, I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile, West Side Bernie, Regal Ransom, Desert Party.
This tells me this is still a pretty competative race. I am likely not going to use General Quarters. Reports of his works have been bad. Desert Party is in only if the track is a bit wet. Like seeing Bernie here as he was my price horse. Was a bit wavery on CC as well, but will have to use underneath now.
12pts: Friesian Fire, Advice
Well, FF is an underneath for me, but I simply have no faith in him winning. He never could get past the biggest of the big dogs last year and think he'll be short again. Wet really doesn't matter to me as much as others. that last big number was the kind I always discount a bit anyway because of the big margin. Advice is a bit of a surprise. Just can't use him
11pts: Dunkirk, Musket Man, Hold Me Back, Join in The Dance, Atomic Rain
Nothing we didn't know here. Dunkirk is the one that is the trend bucker poster boy this year. He has talent, but I likely do not even use him as high as 2nd. His Unbridled's Song parantage has me worried about him every time he races. Not using any of the rest. MM is a great one for those second level Derbies across the country this year. Makes me think a bit about Pollard's Vision who I really loved. He may get his brief flash in this Derby, but it isn't going to last.
Auto Toss: Mr. Hot Stuff, Mine that Bird, Summer Bird, Nowhere to Hide, Flying Private.
Ought to have another catagory next year. Still eligible for a NW1X. If its true, you got no business here. 4 of these fit that bill and the other is just plain slow anyway.
So a lot of confirmation for earlier opinions and a little new food for thought.