quite possibly the worst ML odds I have ever heard

[toussaud]

the 4th choice in a 20 horse race at 4 to 1

papa clem at 20 to 1

you can triple west side bernies 30 to 1 and it still wouldnt' be enough

[andymays]

I agree with you on most things but this one I disagree. I think the morning line is OK! Not perfect but OK!

[LemonSoupKid]

Toussaud,

Step into Battaglia's shoes for a second and give me your opinion of what they'll be. Remember, he's not telling you what he thinks (he's not supposed to at least), he's telling you what he thinks the tote board will show.

I was a bit surprised at a few of these too, just want to see how you'd set a few of them differently.

[Bubba X]

He's got the right horse for chalk but I'd expect he'll go off shorter than 3/1; probably 5/2. That's actually a big difference with 20 betting interests.

It's ridiculous that he has the next three grouped at 4/1, 4/1 and 5/1. You are more likely to see every horse spontaneously combust during the race than you are to see four horses go off at 5/1 or less.

The 50/1's are more likely to average 75/1.

Not that Morning Lines mean anything but this one is incredibly poorly done. If every horse went off exactly at these M/L odds, takeout would be 27%. That itself makes it a pretty lousy effort.

[ManeMediaMogul]

He's got the right horse for chalk but I'd expect he'll go off shorter than 3/1; probably 5/2. That's actually a big difference with 20 betting interests.

It's ridiculous that he has the next three grouped at 4/1, 4/1 and 5/1. You are more likely to see every horse spontaneously combust during the race than you are to see four horses go off at 5/1 or less.

The 50/1's are more likely to average 75/1.

Not that Morning Lines mean anything but this one is incredibly poorly done. If every horse went off exactly at these M/L odds, takeout would be 27%. That itself makes it a pretty lousy effort.

Racetracks don't like to open horses at big prices and insult owners that is why Mike didn't use 75-1 and 100-1 although there is no doubt horses will go off at that price. A 126 "book" in a 20-horse field with a 16% takeout is pretty damn good.

For a horse to go off 5/2 in a 20-horse field, he would have to be an overwhelming favorite. I Want Revenge is just one of three or four top contenders. If he is 5/2 he is a major bet against.

[toussaud]

He's got the right horse for chalk but I'd expect he'll go off shorter than 3/1; probably 5/2. That's actually a big difference with 20 betting interests.

It's ridiculous that he has the next three grouped at 4/1, 4/1 and 5/1. You are more likely to see every horse spontaneously combust during the race than you are to see four horses go off at 5/1 or less.

The 50/1's are more likely to average 75/1.

Not that Morning Lines mean anything but this one is incredibly poorly done. If every horse went off exactly at these M/L odds, takeout would be 27%. That itself makes it a pretty lousy effort.


this. It's not even TECHNICALLY correct. how the hell can you make a ML for the biggest race in the world and not put the slightest bit of thought. this is your one shining moment Mike.


please note also, there are 20 horses. for a horse to go off at 5/2 or even 3/1 it has to be a big brown esque difference in talent. street sense went off as fav at 9/2. that's more along the lines of what I expect here with IWR being SS and Dunkirk being curlin who went off at 5 to 1. note also in that race there was 1 more horse at 8 to 1 and everything else was over 10 to 1.

it's not so much the order of the horses, but the grouping and the fact that he can't even get the takeout correct..come on man.


also, i assure you desert party is not going off higher than papa clem. not going to happen.


as far as insulting the owners, this is the freaking kentucky derby. they need to deal with it. Mike has an obligation to dipict to the novice the real m/l odds of a horse.

[LemonSoupKid]

... it won't be double odds for Friesan, Pioneer, or any other "top choice" (the 5/2 compared to 5:1)

I see IWR being closer to 4 with the other boys from 5:1-9:1

[LemonSoupKid]

I think you are spot on here. I haven't liked what Battaglia does for some time. He's a good guy, but a terrible race caller and prone to mistakes on the morning line, which I'm not sure matters, but hey, it's fun to complain, so let's keep it going.

Who is your choice, touss?

You aren't worried about the 19 hole? Are others?

[cj's dad]

I am not a MB fan and I'm sure he doesn't think highly of me either, but how in the hell does anybody make an accurate ML in a 20 horse field doing the something for the 1st time on an unknown track condition ???

[Spendabuck85]

From Steven Crist blog on drf.com:

The official morning line for the Kentucky Derby separates the 20 entrants into four distinct tiers, and it's hard to argue with them: four favorites in the 3-1 to 5-1 range; the six most plausible alternatives, all tabbed at 15-1 or 20-1; four slightly less plausible 30-1 shots; and six 50-1 no-hopers, an unusually large assortment of pacesetters and vanity entries.
As mentioned on Monday, the track's morning line adds up to more than 100 percent of the pool because the prices are not meant to be precise dollar-odds forecast, i.e. a 20-1 shot on the ML is a horse who the linemaker expects to go off at anywhere between 20.0-1 and 29.9-1.

Also, a longstanding (and perhaps misguided) sense of propriety prevents track linemakers from making horses more than 50-1, even though the bottom six in this year's race are all eligible to go off much higher.

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/

[toussaud]

I am not a MB fan and I'm sure he doesn't think highly of me either, but how in the hell does anybody make an accurate ML in a 20 horse field doing the something for the 1st time on an unknown track condition ???
you can start by making sure the tackout is correct.

how the hell do you make a technically impossible takeout for the biggest race in the world?

[MrHotStuff]

West Side bernie is a steal at 30-1 and I know he will go up. Maybe not the Best Horse here. But he deserves a look, and i hope he hits the Board. Why do you dislike him so much? Wanna bet a little friendly wager. You give me 2-1 odds he hits the Board for 20. I win 40, you win 20 if he doesn't. He is not super fast, but on Dirt he holds his own. I agree with you on the Odds with the other horses. Should have been IWR 3-1 Dunkirk 4-1 FF 6-1 and POTN 7-1 papa / hold me back @ 12-1 Musket man @ 15-1 CC @ 17-1

Once again,

He ran a good race in New York

Dual Qualifier

When not in the money, its on Poly

Good jockey

Most graded races of all. Experience

Last Race 100 beyers , 0 on the sheet.

[toussaud]

why don't i like him? becuase he's not a good horse, and his owners/trainers are pimping him out to get on the derby trail to the horses detriment. the horse is freakin colicing a week ago and he's still in the derby. that is pathetic to me.

[Imriledup]

the ML maker is supposed to embarrass anyone entering a hopelessly outclassed horse. Make them 200-1 ML.

[Watcher]

why don't i like him? becuase he's not a good horse, and his owners/trainers are pimping him out to get on the derby trail to the horses detriment. the horse is freakin colicing a week ago and he's still in the derby. that is pathetic to me.
Was West Side Bernie's only work since the Wood that 4F in 48 on April 25?

[the4horse]

If you want to see current odds that are a product of actual money-backed opinions go to oddschecker: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/kentucky-derby

Battaglia's line isn't too far off.

[toussaud]

If you want to see current odds that are a product of actual money-backed opinions go to oddschecker: http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing/ante-post-racing/flat/kentucky-derby

Battaglia's line isn't too far off. actually it proves my point. there is 1 horse under 5 to 1.. IWR. no other horse is under 5 to 1.

MIke has 3 under 5 to 1.

if he were smart, he should have just copied their site

[kenwoodallpromos]

From Steven Crist blog on drf.com:

The official morning line for the Kentucky Derby separates the 20 entrants into four distinct tiers, and it's hard to argue with them: four favorites in the 3-1 to 5-1 range; the six most plausible alternatives, all tabbed at 15-1 or 20-1; four slightly less plausible 30-1 shots; and six 50-1 no-hopers, an unusually large assortment of pacesetters and vanity entries.
As mentioned on Monday, the track's morning line adds up to more than 100 percent of the pool because the prices are not meant to be precise dollar-odds forecast, i.e. a 20-1 shot on the ML is a horse who the linemaker expects to go off at anywhere between 20.0-1 and 29.9-1.

Also, a longstanding (and perhaps misguided) sense of propriety prevents track linemakers from making horses more than 50-1, even though the bottom six in this year's race are all eligible to go off much higher.

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/
When Giacomo won, 15 horses went off at 20-1 or longer; Now M/L has 16 at 15-1 or longer- I'll bet all 16!!

[sandpit]

What surprised me is that there are no horses between 5-1 and 15-1; surely a couple will wind up in that range, no?

[oddsmaven]

the 4th choice in a 20 horse race at 4 to 1

papa clem at 20 to 1

you can triple west side bernies 30 to 1 and it still wouldnt' be enough
Fo the record, the 4th choice is listed 5:1...and Papa Clem won't be that far under 20:1, if he is.

So the line's not bad...he has the four that will be separated from the rest, although I'd put Friesan Fire as the 2nd choice.

[strapper]

This year's Derby is a great betting race, no matter whether you agree or disagree with the line. My own take is the favorite shouldn't be under 4-1. I don't see Dunkirk going off at 4-1. I think more realistically he should be 6 or 8-1. But you can nitpick this or that and no two people are going to agree. That's what many people don't seem to get. The beauty of the game and the reason people are willing to part with their money is the DIFFERENCE OF OPINION. If we all agreed we'd all bet the same horse and he/she would pay zilch.

[Bettowin]

Who really cares about the accuracy of the morning line anyway? I don't base any bets or opinions on the morning line especially when it's days away from the race and we don't know the track condition. To be arguing over the accuracy of the morning line is a waste of time that could be spent actually handicapping the race:)

[JustRalph]

:1: Bernie at 30-1 is what Mikey thinks he will go off........

I hope so

[DRIVEWAY]

I'd be surprised if Bernie went off more than 20-1. He ranks in the top five in SR and TPR, no matter how you select running lines.

Watched the Wood many times. This horse has upside.

WSB has run in 6 straight graded races. He has three straight 1 1/8 mile races.

If he gets a call at the top of the stretch, watch out.

Negatives:
Colic three weeks ago
Post 1
No Off-track experience
Rookie Derby trainer
No wins this year

Horses to beat: IWR and Dunkirk on raw numbers
Friesan Fire on off track
Musket Man knows how to win

[Irish Boy]

Negatives:
Colic three weeks ago
Post 1
No Off-track experience
Rookie Derby trainer
No wins this year

:D Is that all? He's lost to a lot of bad horses in the process of not winning since September of his two year old year.

[DRIVEWAY]

:D Is that all? He's lost to a lot of bad horses in the process of not winning since September of his two year old year.

Ran second to IWR. This is his last prep and his best race. Horses get better they get worse. My guess is that he's on the improve.

Let's see what his final odds are. If he's in the winner's circle, I'll be smiling. If he looses, such is life.

Maybe ALL those bad horses that beat him will be the reason.

[JustRalph]

reminds me of Funny Cide............ dueled Empire Maker in the Wood and lost by very little. Improved and captured the Derby

[Irish Boy]

Beware of argument by analogy. But even if you follow the analogy, it doesn't stand. Funny Cide had at least won two graded stakes races in his two year old year, and his effort in the Wood earned him a 110 Beyer despite a wide trip. He also just missed by a neck in the Wood. West Side Bernie hasn't won since last September and had every chance to win in the Wood with a perfect trip and couldn't hold off a horse that prefers to press the pace that was forced to come from dead last. What you saw was best-case scenario and he couldn't stay within a length of one of the horses in the race on Saturday. Now take into account the awful post draw, the likely slow early fractions, and the lack of breeding for stamina. I'd demand a higher price than Funny Cide got, and Funny Cide's price was irrationally driven up because he was a gelding.