PDA

View Full Version : Kentucky Oaks Betting


SmartyLane
04-29-2009, 10:53 AM
Kind of new to the board and been a racing fan since 2001, now just pretty much addicted.

Just started actually betting on races last year and this year, and it makes it just that more enjoyable for me, although I don't bet a lot of $$.

On a race like the Oaks and RA at such low odds isn't there still value in the exacta. Say you play the exacta or even the trifecta with JustWhistleDixie or GGG that exacta will still probably pay $10 I'm guessing. To me that is a good bet, but I am not as experienced as many of you are in this. Say you ply RA on top with JWD and GGG on bottom for the exacta or RA on top with JWD, GGG and JWD, GGG for the trifecta.

Explain to me why this is not a good bet even though the payouts are somewhat low on a $4 bet you are going to get back 10 on the exacta and maybe 15-20 on the tri.

Thanks for all the info guys, i enjoy learning on this site and from you all.

LemonSoupKid
04-29-2009, 11:11 AM
... since I've posted on place and show pool betting but I get the feeling, and I'm going to come out and say it right now, that Rachel Alexandra will pay more to place and show than she will to win.

I love it when this happens, it just throws people for a loop, and it's one of the few times when you can risk less to gain more. Hahaha, moohahahahahaha

muahahahahaha

philofbelloni
04-29-2009, 11:26 AM
If you have a strong feeling about 2nd outside of JWD, then the exacta should pay well. Look at Keeneland's 2nd race on 4/11 (Blue Grass day). 7-horse field w/Bluegrass Princess going off at a 4/5. Guarda and Candlemaker were both approx 4-1 2nd choices. Well, Sweet and Flawless ran gamely to place and pay $17+ for the place. The exacta paid $74 & tri paid almost $350.
If you're willing to throw out JWD in the Oaks, you may see a nice price.

FlyinLate
04-29-2009, 11:30 AM
I think Gabby's Golden Gal will be tough here. While she may not be able to tackle RA, I believe she will outfinish JWD.

toussaud
04-29-2009, 11:40 AM
i play to use Rachal Alexandra to basically enhance my bankroll for saturday

DALLIEDOG
04-29-2009, 12:09 PM
i play to use Rachal Alexandra to basically enhance my bankroll for saturday

Since she is 3/5 on the line how do you plan on doing this ?

fmolf
04-29-2009, 04:36 PM
Since she is 3/5 on the line how do you plan on doing this ?
i am going to use her in the oaks/ woodford /derby p3and the oaks/derby double.......i'll put her on top of the just whistledixie in an exacta trying to get some value.....i may use flying spur an nan on the bottom if the exacta pays are overlays usually they are not....if i am having a good day i may build a tri around her as well

toussaud
04-29-2009, 06:33 PM
Since she is 3/5 on the line how do you plan on doing this ?

I'm putting 80% of my set aside bankroll this weekend on RA. I think she would have to injure herself in the race to lose.

Bettowin
04-29-2009, 07:53 PM
I'm putting 80% of my set aside bankroll this weekend on RA. I think she would have to injure herself in the race to lose.

I'll be watching the tote board for your $80,000 to hit the pools:)

toussaud
04-29-2009, 10:06 PM
nah it's not that much but it's a nice amount. I did the same thing for her in the fair grounds oaks but not the fantasy becuase she was too low. I'll take anything over 2/5 for her on oaks day.

lamboguy
04-29-2009, 11:18 PM
... since I've posted on place and show pool betting but I get the feeling, and I'm going to come out and say it right now, that Rachel Alexandra will pay more to place and show than she will to win.

I love it when this happens, it just throws people for a loop, and it's one of the few times when you can risk less to gain more. Hahaha, moohahahahahaha

muahahahahaha

RACHEL is in against a bunch of never win 2's. how do you expect her to pay more than 2.20 to place or show. she might pay that to win.

toussaud
04-29-2009, 11:36 PM
Friday is going to be a bridgejumper holiday. hell i'd seriously consider it and I don't bridge jump. someone or someones are going to pump an ungodly amou t of money on her to show to get a .05 percent return on investment.

strapper
04-30-2009, 10:30 AM
I believe you are right. RA offers no value unless you can nail the exacta or trifecta.

RACHEL is in against a bunch of never win 2's. how do you expect her to pay more than 2.20 to place or show. she might pay that to win.

SMOO
04-30-2009, 10:36 AM
Rachel/IWR double. :ThmbUp:

Bettowin
04-30-2009, 10:58 AM
Rachel/IWR double. :ThmbUp:


That should pay about $10.

wisconsin
04-30-2009, 11:56 AM
In races such as this, handicappers try to manufacture a value ticket, and are often left frustrated and out some money when they could just relax and watch a champion run. You can't go deep because you are going to run over your own money in the exotics, outspending a likely payoff. Your best play is to land on a horse that could be second and leave it at that. My opinion only, of course.

SmartyLane
04-30-2009, 12:39 PM
What would you that know think a Superfecta would pay with
RA/ JWD, GGG/ JWD, GGG/ Flying Spur

M/L Odds are
RA 3/5
JWD 5/2
GGG 10/1
FS 8/1

wisconsin
04-30-2009, 12:47 PM
What would you that know think a Superfecta would pay with
RA/ JWD, GGG/ JWD, GGG/ Flying Spur

M/L Odds are
RA 3/5
JWD 5/2
GGG 10/1
FS 8/1

In that field, probably $80 the short way, or maybe $150 the long way. Depends on how the betting is really going. Your looking at a $9 exacta, then the tri would likely pay no more than 3 times that, and the super would be 3 times the tri. Not always, but often enough. Then again, once in a while you get a kiss.

SMOO
04-30-2009, 01:00 PM
That should pay about $10.

I'll take it (IF R.A. wins), I won't be forced to go back to the similcast on crowded derby day, just watch it on tv.


:6: :cool: :13:

SmartyLane
04-30-2009, 01:19 PM
In that field, probably $80 the short way, or maybe $150 the long way. Depends on how the betting is really going. Your looking at a $9 exacta, then the tri would likely pay no more than 3 times that, and the super would be 3 times the tri. Not always, but often enough. Then again, once in a while you get a kiss.

I am going to do this bet and that bet will cost $2.......I'll bet this 5 times so a $10 total bet, so by what you are saying if it hits you are talking about $400........is that right?

wisconsin
04-30-2009, 02:24 PM
I am going to do this bet and that bet will cost $2.......I'll bet this 5 times so a $10 total bet, so by what you are saying if it hits you are talking about $400........is that right?


That sure would sound easy, eh? Hope you hit it.

SmartyLane
04-30-2009, 02:25 PM
That sure would sound easy, eh? Hope you hit it.

Yeah no kidding :lol:

Richie
04-30-2009, 04:06 PM
the only value in the race would be if one of the 2 favs falters and BE FAIR gets in the exacta. With a possible off track, that's the way I'm playing it

pktruckdriver
05-01-2009, 09:02 AM
My Oaks/Derby double



Racheal/ 13,16,15,6
5.00 for 20.00

Good luck
Patrick