Starter Allowances in Class Hierarchy

[MarquisMark]

First race at Hollywood tomorrow (4/29) is a 20K claimer for 3 year old fillies. The 5 horse's last race was a starter allowance for maiden grads, 4 and up, in which she came in 5th out of 10. Michael Hammersley's little blurb on the side mentions that this horse is getting a class drop by going from the starter allowance to a 20k claimer.

I don't see how this is a class drop though. I would think that a 20k claimer in which horses face other potential winners would be a higher class race than one that only has maiden grads N2L.

Am I mistaken here? Or would this only be going up in class if she was running in 20k claimer, 3 and up rather than 3 year olds only?

These kinds of starter allowance are the proverbial wrench in my works. I can't handicap them and whenever I see them in the PPs, they always throw me for a loop.

[plainolebill]

She is getting some class relief here, dropping from an race that was open to older horses into a low level claimer for 3 YOs.

[Norm]

A couple of considerations -

Check the chart of that last race. The purse is the best indicator of the class of that last race. Also, check how many other 3 yo's were actually entered. A race may be carded as 3 yo ^ but that doesn't mean many or even any actually ran. Sometimes half the field are 3, sometimes only 1, sometimes none. It's still early in the year, 3 yo fillies would not be expected to beat their elders unless the older horses were sorely lacking in talent. Let the purse tell you how much talent was present and consider the ages of the horses that beat her. Also, the exact "starter" conditions are important, there are lots of ways to write a starter allowance.

[Dave Schwartz]

My experience with making pars is that generally starter allowance pars are worthlesss from one year to the next. The one exception to that is the California races for Starters, N2L. It is a very special kind of race.

That race is a class level of 102.6, while the $20k claimer is a 103.4. In addition, horses that have never run at least 2nd in a non-maiden event can be penalized a little.

Thus, I would say it is a slight rise in class.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[BMeadow]

This and similar problems are easily solved if you have numbers or ratings for all the horses involved. In this case, I looked up my current Master Win Ratings for the 1-2-3 finishers in each of the filly's last two races, and compared those ratings with the entrants in today's claiming race. Bettyboomboom's rating is 9, making her the top-rated horse in today's field:

Last race: Ashee 10, Queen Mariles 11, Sky Marni 10
Race before: Motu Nui 9, Boehle 11, Grey Babe 11

Today's race:
Voodoo's Vision xwas9 (penalized because of a suspicious class drop)
Call Aly 6
Daniella Roth 1
Nine To Dine 6
Bettyboomboom 9

Obviously, this is a much weaker field than either of her last two races.

[MarquisMark]

I had looked at the result chart from that race...purse was 23k, as they almost always are for those types of starter allowances. The field of that race (4/1/09-8 at SA) was 10, six 3 yo and four 4 yo. A 3 yo won at a good price.

I guess I am getting confused as I always thought that in allowance races, younger horses typically have the advantage. And dropping into a 3 yo claimer after running in a cheap race where 3 yo supposedly have an advantage anyways, doesn't seem to be much class relief.

[MarquisMark]

Bettyboomboom's rating is 9, making her the top-rated horse in today's field.

That's encouraging to hear. She is my top pick for that race. Don't know how the odds will shake out, but still...

[Thomas Roulston]

Not all of these starter races are created equal; and the best way of figuring out where they rank at each track is to take the purse of the race in question and figure out what class of open-claiming race has the same purse.

The condition that NYRA uses: "For (age/sex) which have started for ($) or less and have not won a race other than maiden or claiming" - clearly outranks its West Coast counterpart - "For (age/sex) which broke their maidens for ($) or less and have never won two races" - and their respective purses reflect that.

But I've come up with a variation that might be more challenging than either of the above: "For three-year-olds and upward which have started for maiden $35,000 or less and have not won for a claiming price exceeding $35,000 or have never won two races." Note that under this condition, maidens would be eligible, and so would a horse that graduated in a maiden special weight (on turf?) if that horse had previously started in a maiden claimer for $35,000 or less (on dirt?).

[pic6vic]

I agree with Dave that this is a slightly higher class, since you vcan have multiple winners. That said, Barry's evaluation shows how weak this race is giving Betty more credence. Also if you were drawn on the outside and were close to the pace at SA for the last month you had no chance. You had to clear or come from the inside to the outside in the stretch. The horses going wide were at a disadvantage

[fmolf]

these are the types of races where the bris rr and cr are very helpful.pointing out which horses ran against better grade horses

[Norm]

I guess I am getting confused as I always thought that in allowance races, younger horses typically have the advantage. And dropping into a 3 yo claimer after running in a cheap race where 3 yo supposedly have an advantage anyways, doesn't seem to be much class relief.Everything depends on how the conditions are written. In an open (unconditioned) allowance race, the 4 yo has a decisive advantage due to physical maturity, especially this early in the year. That advantage begins to dissolve after summer sets in. However, Racing Secretaries have a way of tipping the scale the other way. Here in the mid-Atlantic region, a favorite kind of race reads - 3 yo or 4 and up N2L which pits talented 3 yo's against struggling older horses. In this condition, the advantage shifts to the 3 yo's. The sweetheart scenario in this race is a lightly raced 4 yo that has won a MSW and finished ITM in a N1X. Now, the advantage shifts back to the 4 yo. But, from September (more or less) onward, as the 3 yo's reach maturity, their advantage in this condition becomes decisive..

[BlueShoe]

Betty went boo boo,not boom boom.Out of the money as the heavy fave.Yours truly singled her in the early pick 4 and pick 3,so that didnt last long.She had scratched out of a stronger field Sunday,so perhaps that and the face value class drop should have raised some flags.

[so.cal.fan]

Starter races for maiden claming grads are equal to $10K to $12.5K 95% of the time, in So. California.
To classify otherwise is to do so at your own risk.

[46zilzal]

Starter allowances are the most eclectic races on the card as it hearkens back to a time long before today and many improved significantly since that time.

These contest often have many going UP from the initial "man made" level where they qualified for entry

[MarquisMark]

Starter races for maiden claming grads are equal to $10K to $12.5K 95% of the time, in So. California.
To classify otherwise is to do so at your own risk.

I like this. This sounds like a good parameter to go by and one I am going to keep in mind in the future.

I also had the 5 singled in a cheap pick4 ticket. With Hollywood's fields so short it's hard to find genuine value in those races. A $4 pick4 gives me someething to root for while waiting to see if a good wager presents itself.

[fmolf]

I like this. This sounds like a good parameter to go by and one I am going to keep in mind in the future.

I also had the 5 singled in a cheap pick4 ticket. With Hollywood's fields so short it's hard to find genuine value in those races. A $4 pick4 gives me someething to root for while waiting to see if a good wager presents itself.
their are different classes of starter races ... written like this.."for 3yr olds&^ who have broken their maidens for 30,000 or less"so if you won at mdn 35k you are not eligible...what i do is i compare par times or par figures for the different classes...if a starter race of any type has a beyer par of say 80...look for the equivalent claiming race with this par

[plainolebill]

Starter races for maiden claming grads are equal to $10K to $12.5K 95% of the time, in So. California.
To classify otherwise is to do so at your own risk.

I think that's true for 4YO&UP but not in the case for 3YO where low level claimers are pretty bad - I'd say as a general rule of thumb these kinds of ALWS are equivilant to 25-32K 3yo claimers early in the year. But all the races are different and I don't even consider class for these horses because the pecking order hasn't been established.

[so.cal.fan]

You're right plainoldbill,
3 year old starters are about those claiming brackets, and those claming brackets for 3 year olds early in the year are about the same as the 10K to 12.5K for older runners.
Three year olds early in the year at Santa Anita and even Hollywood Park running that cheap are usually not worth much. Most don't stay racing on major circuits very long.