For Marc DRF (EMPIRE MAKER)

[jotb]

Hello Marc:


In the result charts over at the DRF, dated 4/12/03 (wood day) there were two variants created for the day. Sprints were 13 and routes 12. Apparently the DRF assumes there was no change in the resiliency of the track during the course of the day because races 1 and 9 were sprints with the same variant of 13 and races 3 and 9 were routes with the same variant of 12.

My question is why does Steven Crist who is Chairman and Publisher of the DRF write an article in Simulcast Weekly in the April 27th issue, page 4, titled (These numbers may be no help) and claim that on "Wood Memorial day the track was drying out to muddy and was clearly changing throughout the afternoon and required a split variant for final time comparisons"? If there is truth in this will we see a new variant in the DRF past performances on Empire Makers and the rest of the horses that ran on this day?

Joe

[cj]

I can answer that one...the DRF variant is independent and only changes if the official track condition changes, i.e fast to good, good to sloppy, etc.

The variant Crist refers to is the Beyer variant, and it is not published in print, but can be extracted if you know the Beyer Speed and Beaten Length Adjustment charts. This variant was indeed split.

The early routes(3,5) that day had a Beyer variant of about 14 points fast, but the Wood had a Beyer variant of 5 points fast. Likewise, the early sprints(1,2,4) had a variant of 15 fast, while the later races were only 6 fast.

One other difference you will notice...The DRF variant lumps one turn miles in with the other two turn routes, while the Beyer variant puts one turn miles with the sprints.

CJ

[Tom]

So, EM might have run a 102 instead of a 111 is you don't agree with the split.
At 111, I am looking hard to see if there are signs he might bounce. If he ran a 102, I am more confident he will run big again.

[cj]

Tom,

If you don't agree with the split, the 2 races before and after the Wood look way out of whack. In this case, I thought it made sense. Can't see Congaree running a 105 or so.

CJ

[andicap]

What do the Raggies say?

[Tom]

I agree - I just gave this day a good long look, because EM is either going to regress or move ahead, and he is the key to the whole enchilada. I think the split was right.

[jotb]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by cjmilkowski
[B]I can answer that one...the DRF variant is independent and only changes if the official track condition changes, i.e fast to good, good to sloppy, etc.

The variant Crist refers to is the Beyer variant, and it is not published in print, but can be extracted if you know the Beyer Speed and Beaten Length Adjustment charts. This variant was indeed split.

The early routes(3,5) that day had a Beyer variant of about 14 points fast, but the Wood had a Beyer variant of 5 points fast. Likewise, the early sprints(1,2,4) had a variant of 15 fast, while the later races were only 6 fast.

Hello:

Good observation! I viewed all my Simo Weekly's and the only times they split the variant is when the surface changes from good to sloppy or good to muddy. The only time they do not split the variant when the surface condition changes is when the track goes from sloppy to muddy like it did on Wood Memorial Day.

I thought it be best to split the variant for the day until I noticed that wind played a role rather than the maintaince crew. In those route races horses had the advantage of a tailwind going into the first turn and into the stretch whereas, the sprint races only had this advantage into the stretch. The winds were out of the North-Northwest 15-25mph and I'm convinced played a significant role in the outcome of final times, not to mention early fractions as well. The only race I excluded from the sample was the 1st race which was well below par. If you view the 9.0F races that day, you will see that the 3rd and the 5th races were faster the first 1/4 and 1/2 mile than the Wood Memorial. The 5th race was faster a full length at the 3/4 mark than the Wood. Keep in mind that the 3rd race was for 30k claimers and the 5th an ALW2L. If the tailwind was an advantage for the route races and early fractions were faster than par, what do we make of the 23.50, 47.21. and 111.19 Wood? There was absolutely no pressure early on which enables the early pace types to finish first,second and fourth. I guess that might be the reason, Funny Cide was able to come back along the rail. These slow early fractions make for a faster final time but if horses had an advantage in the stretch because of this tailwind, was the Wood Memorial's final time really that fast? I wonder where Empire Maker would have finished if he was in the 5th race against ALWNW2L.

Joe