I'm tossing Dunkirk

[Burls]

I'm tossing Dunkirk.
Can anyone give me a reason not to?
I'm serious about this.
Is there something I'm missing here?

[ezgoerbaby79]

He looked like he was going to fall down with exhaustion after the FL Derby.

[SmartyJ]

Tossing completely, or just from the top spot?

I could see wanting to toss him from the win line, but I definitely think he has a great shot to hit the board. We don't really know how good the Florida Derby was, IMO, and I can't advise anyone to toss a well-bred colt, like Dunkirk completely.

[riskman]

Only 2 out of 47 (4%) RACED IN FLORIDA DERBY AS FINAL PREP and won the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown and Barbaro who both won the Florida Derby. As we know, Dunkirk finished second behind Quality Road who is now out.

This link has some interesting Derby Stats.

http://www.fullcardreports.com

[onefast99]

Did you replace him with Atomic Rain?

[Canadian]

Only 2 out of 47 (4%) RACED IN FLORIDA DERBY AS FINAL PREP and won the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown and Barbaro who both won the Florida Derby. As we know, Dunkirk finished second behind Quality Road who is now out.


So what you're saying is. In the last 3 years 66% of derby winners used the Flordia Derby as their final prep.

That settles it. I'm going with Dunkirk. :cool:

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Only 2 out of 47 (4%) RACED IN FLORIDA DERBY AS FINAL PREP and won the Kentucky Derby. Big Brown and Barbaro who both won the Florida Derby. As we know, Dunkirk finished second behind Quality Road who is now out.

This link has some interesting Derby Stats.

http://www.fullcardreports.com
Actually, the Florida Derby never really was a FINAL prep for the derby until High Fly won in 2005. Before that, it was run earlier in March and was a prep for races like the Bluegrass or Wood. So if that had been a horse's final prep, that would have been quite a long layoff for them. So actually, 2 out of the last 4 years a horse using the Florida Derby as their final prep has won the derby. That 4% is misleading. I'll pass on paying for those reports.

[big frank]

I'm tossing Dunkirk.
Can anyone give me a reason not to?
I'm serious about this.
Is there something I'm missing here? I could give you several reasons TO USE DUNKIRK ! TALENT, PEDIGREE , CONNECTIONS , FIGS ,, What is not to like about this horse ???? HE is my single in the derby

[Zenyatta To Crush]

I could give you several reasons TO USE DUNKIRK ! TALENT, PEDIGREE , CONNECTIONS , FIGS ,, What is not to like about this horse ???? HE is my single in the derby
Wow...a single? Thats pretty bold. I'm not sure if I'd single him but he obviously has a huge shot. You know he's gonna make that big sweeping move at some point in the race. I can't see him finishing worse than 4th. If I had to pick 1 horse to finish in the top 4, it would probably be him.

[Burls]

I could give you several reasons TO USE DUNKIRK ! TALENT, PEDIGREE , CONNECTIONS , FIGS ,, What is not to like about this horse ???? HE is my single in the derby.Dunkirk was impressive in his MSW and Allowance race, but in the Florida Derby, he met a real Stakes horse for he first time, and he sure didn't shine there.
In the Kentucky Derby, he's going to have to worry about I Want Revenge, Desert Party, Chocolate Candy and Papa Clem making their rush to the front and passing him in the final turn. If he is able to make it near the front at the end of the final turn, he's still going to have Pioneer of the Nile and Friesan Fire to pass - and he can thank his lucky stars that Quality Road won't be up there too.
I just don't think Dunkirk is up to it.

[WinterTriangle]

he's still going to have Pioneer of the Nile and Friesan Fire to pass

So, Dunkirk, with a Best Bris of 107 and a Best Beyer of 108 and ran his last 3/8th mile in 36:56 (ON DIRT ahem!)

.....is going to struggle to pass Pioneer who has a Best Bris of 98 (back in October) and a Best Beyer of 96 and ran his last 3/8th mile in 36.75 (on Poly)?

Sorry, but the numbers don't add up for me. :)

[Burls]

So, Dunkirk, with a Best Bris of 107 and a Best Beyer of 108 and ran his last 3/8th mile in 36:56 (ON DIRT ahem!)

.....is going to struggle to pass Pioneer who has a Best Bris of 98 (back in October) and a Best Beyer of 96 and ran his last 3/8th mile in 36.75 (on Poly)?

Sorry, but the numbers don't add up for me. :)Just curious WT, why do you think Gomez decided to go with Pioneer Of The Nile instead of Dunkirk?
Either Gomez is pretty dense or there's more to consider than just numbers here, perhaps.

[WinterTriangle]

Just curious WT, why do you think Gomez decided to go with Pioneer Of The Nile instead of Dunkirk?
Either Gomez is pretty dense or there's more to consider than just numbers here, perhaps.

Burls, let me preface by saying I'm not on or off Dunkirk. He may not even be on my ticket.

You asked for reasons not to toss, so I'm just playing Devil's Advocate for ya. :)

Gomez got off Dunkirk, iMHO, arranged by his agent, so he will not lose rides with Baffert in upcoming year. No mystery here to me. Business is business. You don't stake the rest of your year's pay on *one* horse in a field of 20 on KY Derby day.

Okay, let's move on. Here's another interesting fact, I haven't seen anyone bring up yet (unless I missed it):

Go back 25 years of Derby and find me runners who posted a 108 beyer in a two-turn race in their third career start ON DIRT.......

[OTM Al]

Go back 25 years of Derby and find me runners who posted a 108 beyer in a two-turn race in their third career start ON DIRT.......

Except that it was originally only a 100 and probably should have stayed there. That was not an honest surface much of this year and especially on that day.

[sally]

My worry is can Pioneer keep his top form for one more race (the toughest he's faced)--if PON doesn't show up I see Dunkirk's biggest threat being I Want Revenge, who I think is in top form and maybe even improving--his biggest weakness could be his jockey--

[toussaud]

I like dunkirk actually.

[sally]

I like dunkirk actually.

to beat I Want Revenge?

[how cliche]

Play him in the derby if you like, but I'm thoroughly convinced Dunkirk misses the board Saturday. I'm also very suspicious that I Want Revenge will perform poorly as well.

I'm a self proclaimed expert on 'the move', the one that people look for every year. Dunkirk = Lawyer Ron @ Saratoga in 2007. Juice move. Same trainer. 'The move' , the real one occurs when the rider drops his hands and the runner explodes. The juice move happens when the runner is being scrubbed on before the turn even starts and the rider never stops. Normally a horse after initially not responding gets tired & so does the rider after a furlong of futile urging. Not a juiced up Lawyer Ron or Dunkirk, who keep grinding. Even with all the juice, Dunkirk was toyed with by Quality Road whose jockey messed up by allowing Dunkirk to range up with all the momentum and not getting after him until it was way way way too late. If you liked Lawyer Ron's race at 'toga then you enjoy the same thing that disgusts me. A not real, juice enhanced mega performance.

I'm gonna say this and many here will scoff. I don't mind though. If you wanna witness 'the move' this year, Square Eddie's Lex is what it's supposed to look like. Doesn't matter, because he's hurt & he was likely a short horse anyway, but what I'm telling you is the truth. Think about Street Sense's race prior to the bc juvie. Square Eddie was up against it, but I reckon he's as talented as anyone going to post in the derby.

Most know the reputation of J. Mullins. Even though IWR wasn't so visually obvious in the better living through chemistry department, I'm suspicious of the massive move up being solely credited to the 'he's a dirt horse' argument. Y'know the trainer starts a suspension the day after the derby. How in the world is TAP or for that matter Jeff Mullet supposed to get their gear past the authorities with super testing in place?

Do the right thing & say nope to dope.

[onefast99]

Play him in the derby if you like, but I'm thoroughly convinced Dunkirk misses the board Saturday. I'm also very suspicious that I Want Revenge will perform poorly as well.

I'm a self proclaimed expert on 'the move', the one that people look for every year. Dunkirk = Lawyer Ron @ Saratoga in 2007. Juice move. Same trainer. 'The move' , the real one occurs when the rider drops his hands and the runner explodes. The juice move happens when the runner is being scrubbed on before the turn even starts and the rider never stops. Normally a horse after initially not responding gets tired & so does the rider after a furlong of futile urging. Not a juiced up Lawyer Ron or Dunkirk, who keep grinding. Even with all the juice, Dunkirk was toyed with by Quality Road whose jockey messed up by allowing Dunkirk to range up with all the momentum and not getting after him until it was way way way too late. If you liked Lawyer Ron's race at 'toga then you enjoy the same thing that disgusts me. A not real, juice enhanced mega performance.

I'm gonna say this and many here will scoff. I don't mind though. If you wanna witness 'the move' this year, Square Eddie's Lex is what it's supposed to look like. Doesn't matter, because he's hurt & he was likely a short horse anyway, but what I'm telling you is the truth. Think about Street Sense's race prior to the bc juvie. Square Eddie was up against it, but I reckon he's as talented as anyone going to post in the derby.

Most know the reputation of J. Mullins. Even though IWR wasn't so visually obvious in the better living through chemistry department, I'm suspicious of the massive move up being solely credited to the 'he's a dirt horse' argument. Y'know the trainer starts a suspension the day after the derby. How in the world is TAP or for that matter Jeff Mullet supposed to get their gear past the authorities with super testing in place?

Do the right thing & say nope to dope.
If you are correct then the derby will have a real nice payoff.

[toussaud]

first of all, lawyer ron never improved. pletcher was (at least by me) critized... when he got lawyer ron at 3 he had a talanted horse that could not rate if his life depended on it.

at 4 in the BCC.. you had...a talanted horse that oculd not rate if his lfie dependend on it.

Laywer ron was an open book. leave him alone on the lead and you can go cash your ticket. lawyer ron and war emblem are clones of each other. Lawyer ron's toga showing was becuase he got to lope around track in front.

even before the BCC, pletcher was quoted as saying he was more scared of hard spun than any other horse in the field beucase he knew they were going to get in a speed duel. hard spun should have been every bit of 10-15 to 1 in the BCC becuase he can't rate and there was no way he was going to beat out hard spun for the lead.

secondly, some horses are push button, some aren't. I'm pretty sure POTN is not on roids and he is probably 10x harder to ride than Dunkirk. every race he runs in you can hear Denman or Stauffer talk about POTN being hard ridden about when they hit the turn, and it's a big reason why they did what they had to do to get gomez to ride the horse.


lastly, I would not expect a horse to be as physically exausted as Dunkirk was after the race if he was roided up.

also, It's not in coolmore.. whose sole purpose is to breed horses, to roid the crap out of the horses and possibly mess up the horses fertility and espically one that expensive

[Cratos]

I'm tossing Dunkirk.
Can anyone give me a reason not to?
I'm serious about this.
Is there something I'm missing here?

Dunkirk is the horse to beat in the KY Derby and his performance in the FL Derdy supports that contention when compared against Quality Road’s (out of the Derby) performance.

FL Derby Comparison by Quarters

1st Quarter
QR = 23.74
Dunkirk = 24.68

2nd Quarter
QR = 23.42
Dunkirk = 24.42

3rd Quarter
QR = 23.50
Dunkirk = 22.14

4th Quarter
QR = 24.62
Dunkirk = 24.85

Final Eighth
QR = 12.44
Dunkirk = 12.56

It should be clear that the move that Gomez made with Dunkirk from the ½ mile to the ¾ mile spent the horse and conversely Velázquez put QR on the pace from the outset and maintained a very even race as the field came back to him.

In the Derby both Gomez and Pletcher will have learned from that mistake and Dunkirk should take the 135th Running of the Roses

[toussaud]

dunkirk has no choice but to be "spent". he's a DEEP closer. if dunkrk runs an even race it's not a good sign if you are backing him beucase that means he is goin to be at the back of the pack

[Dahoss9698]

first of all, lawyer ron never improved. pletcher was (at least by me) critized... when he got lawyer ron at 3 he had a talanted horse that could not rate if his life depended on it.

at 4 in the BCC.. you had...a talanted horse that oculd not rate if his lfie dependend on it.

Laywer ron was an open book. leave him alone on the lead and you can go cash your ticket. lawyer ron and war emblem are clones of each other. Lawyer ron's toga showing was becuase he got to lope around track in front.

even before the BCC, pletcher was quoted as saying he was more scared of hard spun than any other horse in the field beucase he knew they were going to get in a speed duel. hard spun should have been every bit of 10-15 to 1 in the BCC becuase he can't rate and there was no way he was going to beat out hard spun for the lead.



You need to watch some of these races again before making statements about them. Lawyer Ron rated off the pace in both of his big wins at Saratoga. He also rated before that in the Met Mile and while a bit headstrong early, he rated pretty nicely in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Pletcher got him to rate.

[toussaud]

You need to watch some of these races again before making statements about them. Lawyer Ron rated off the pace in both of his big wins at Saratoga. He also rated before that in the Met Mile and while a bit headstrong early, he rated pretty nicely in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. Pletcher got him to rate.
no he didn't

[Dahoss9698]

So he was on the lead in the Met Mile, Whitney, Woodward and Jockey Club Gold Cup?

[Dahoss9698]

Rating 3 wide off the lead, taking command at the top of the stretch in the Whitney

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AA8u9_uvJM0

[Cratos]

dunkirk has no choice but to be "spent". he's a DEEP closer. if dunkrk runs an even race it's not a good sign if you are backing him beucase that means he is goin to be at the back of the pack

Dunkirk is not a deep closer and if you look at his lifetime PPs you will see that he was never more than 3 ½ lengths off the pace in his previous two starts prior to the FL Derby.

Also Dunkirk went 5 wide in the FL Derby when he made his move that also compromised his chances somewhat.

For a horse to have the kind of explosiveness that he showed in the FL Derby and to be bred to go a distance of ground the 1 ¼ mile KY derby should be ideal for him.

[SmartyLane]

Dunkirk is not a deep closer and if you look at his lifetime PPs you will see that he was never more than 3 ½ lengths off the pace in his previous two starts prior to the FL Derby.

Also Dunkirk went 5 wide in the FL Derby when he made his move that also compromised his chances somewhat.

For a horse to have the kind of explosiveness that he showed in the FL Derby and to be bred to go a distance of ground the 1 ¼ mile KY derby should be ideal for him.

I am unsure on Dunkirk and you all make valid points.....him going 5 wide at GP may be narrow compared to how wide he will have to go at CD to near the lead coming home..........

[WinterTriangle]

Except that it was originally only a 100 and probably should have stayed there. That was not an honest surface much of this year and especially on that day.

I agree, OTM, which is also why (gasp!) I don't use Beyer's numbers. I have never used 'em. I glance at them. I was presenting my research on Dunkirk here for Burls, just including what I've picked up along the way, so included them.
It burns me I have to "do the math" and adjust beyer's who is supposed to be a numbers guy, yet I have to fiddle with his published numbers all the time to make them "true". Give me Steve Roman's pace parameters ANY DAY. He's a real mathematician.

[miesque]

Every year you have to choose which favorites you are going to elimate from your selections and this year is no exception. I am going to let Dunkirk beat me, I have some serious questions about his sturdiness and how much bottom he actually has with only three lifetime races and I am highly suspicious of that Gulfstream fig and I just really don't see how he could have built the requisite foundation and conditioning to improve off that effort because in my eyes after the Florida Derby he looked like a China Doll that was ready to collapse. Now if he was 20/1 that would be one thing, but he is going to probably be the second favorite and the price you will be getting for him is not worth it in my opinion.

[andymays]

As someone who thinks IWR wins going away, the only one in the field that I think has the ability to beat IWR is Dunkirk.

[Burls]

Every year you have to choose which favorites you are going to elimate from your selections and this year is no exception. I am going to let Dunkirk beat me, I have some serious questions about his sturdiness and how much bottom he actually has with only three lifetime races and I am highly suspicious of that Gulfstream fig and I just really don't see how he could have built the requisite foundation and conditioning to improve off that effort because in my eyes after the Florida Derby he looked like a China Doll that was ready to collapse. Now if he was 20/1 that would be one thing, but he is going to probably be the second favorite and the price you will be getting for him is not worth it in my opinion.I agree with you entirely, miesque. I think you have to eliminate those contenders who you think will be most undervalued. I think this will be Dunkirk. If Dunkirk were to be at 20/1, of course he's back on my tickets because he's definitely a real value at that price. For the exotics, I generally rank the horses ordinally and I think if Dunkirk is in the top 5 he's overvalued.

[Burls]

Burls, let me preface by saying I'm not on or off Dunkirk. He may not even be on my ticket.

You asked for reasons not to toss, so I'm just playing Devil's Advocate for ya. :)
In retrospect, my comments came off a little more snide than I had intended. Your comments are just the sort of thing I was asking for because there's always the possibility that Dunkirk will end up on my ticket if someone makes me aware of the right considerations.
Besides, the pre-Derby chatter is half the fun.
In that spirit, let me throw this out.
After the Florida Derby, Gomez realized that, despite his impeccable pedigree, Dunkirk just didn't have that good old-fashioned hunger to win that other horses like Quality Road and Pioneer Of The North do.
That's what made Gomez opt for Pioneer Of The North.
I don't think Gomez has any difficulty getting rides these days.
Worse, the ways things are going in So. Cal., I have a feeling that Gomez and Bejarano might be heading eastward pretty soon, so being on Baffert's good side won't be a major consideration for Gomez.

[Cratos]

I am unsure on Dunkirk and you all make valid points.....him going 5 wide at GP may be narrow compared to how wide he will have to go at CD to near the lead coming home..........

Papa Clem should make the KY Derby an honest pace early and going wide at Churchill Downs is not bad because the long stretch allows for recovery.

Dunkirk major deficiency is “seasoning” because he didn’t run as a two-year old and have had only 3 lifetime starts. But I believe he will win and will be an excellent bet at odds of 3-1 or better.

[Bettowin]

Papa Clem should make the KY Derby an honest pace early and going wide at Churchill Downs is not bad because the long stretch allows for recovery.

Dunkirk major deficiency is “seasoning” because he didn’t run as a two-year old and have had only 3 lifetime starts. But I believe he will win and will be an excellent bet at odds of 3-1 or better.


I don't think Papa Clem will have anything to do with the pace. He should be about 4-6 lengths back waiting to move in the last 1/2 mile just like many others in this race. Pressing the pace would be a sure way out of the money finish IMO.

[JPinMaryland]

I mentioned this after the FL derby and didnt see if anyone posted in response to . it seemed to me that the that derby had a strong wind factor and most likely the wind was into their faces on the front stretch and at their backs in the home stretch. This would work against a front runner but a closer like Dunkirk should have got the most out of that but actually was sort of spent at the end. (could also be that fast 3rd quarter he ran as well)

My guess is that Dunkirk doesnt get the distance, so I am tossing, but maybe I am reading the FL derby wrong??

[Cratos]

I don't think Papa Clem will have anything to do with the pace. He should be about 4-6 lengths back waiting to move in the last 1/2 mile just like many others in this race. Pressing the pace would be a sure way out of the money finish IMO.

Papa Clem has been on or near the lead in 4 of his 6 lifetime starts and in the Arkansas Derby (which he won) it would have been futile to put him on the front-end to battle with Old Fashioned who turned in the quick early fractions.

However Papa Clem wasn’t a closer in the 9 horse Arkansas Derby field, but a mid-pack runner who was never more than 4 ½ lengths off the lead and came on when Old Fashioned faltered. His connections cannot and should not allow the Papa Clem’s jockey to hold in mid-pack and run with the likes of Dunkirk because that will most likely spell defeat.

[toussaud]

this IMHO is a 2 and a half horse race. IWR or dunkirk. I say 2 and a half beucase I can see a situtation where papa clem wins it. he's the gamest horse I have seen since alaphbet soup, and ifr he has the lead in the stretch, I don't think anyone gets past him. if RB can get him to the lead in the strech or entering the stretch, I think papa clem could gut out the rest of it. that's a big if.

[Bettowin]

Papa Clem has been on or near the lead in 4 of his 6 lifetime starts and in the Arkansas Derby (which he won) it would have been futile to put him on the front-end to battle with Old Fashioned who turned in the quick early fractions.

However Papa Clem wasn’t a closer in the 9 horse Arkansas Derby field, but a mid-pack runner who was never more than 4 ½ lengths off the lead and came on when Old Fashioned faltered. His connections cannot and should not allow the Papa Clem’s jockey to hold in mid-pack and run with the likes of Dunkirk because that will most likely spell defeat.

I still say he will be 4-6 lengths back which isn't really midpack considering how many horses are running. After a mile he needs to be within a couple of lengths if he wants to have any chance. This isn't the Ark Derby and there are more speed horses and more horses that will be in front of him who won't be slowing down much either so he is going to have to run a race much much better than his last to have a chance to hit the board. Gonna be a good one Saturday and hope we both cash big:)

[Relwob Owner]

this IMHO is a 2 and a half horse race. IWR or dunkirk. I say 2 and a half beucase I can see a situtation where papa clem wins it. he's the gamest horse I have seen since alaphbet soup, and ifr he has the lead in the stretch, I don't think anyone gets past him. if RB can get him to the lead in the strech or entering the stretch, I think papa clem could gut out the rest of it. that's a big if.


Your posts sometimes confuse me.....didnt you start a thread saying that you thought I Want Revenge is a fraud and spend tons of time saying why he wouldnt win?????

Also, very strange that you use Alphabet Soup as your benchmark of a horse's gameness....


Lastly, thinking this is a two and a half horse race is a pretty irrational thing to think....there are 7 or 8 who could win

[toussaud]

Your posts sometimes confuse me.....didnt you start a thread saying that you thought I Want Revenge is a fraud and spend tons of time saying why he wouldnt win?????

Also, very strange that you use Alphabet Soup as your benchmark of a horse's gameness....


Lastly, thinking this is a two and a half horse race is a pretty irrational thing to think....there are 7 or 8 who could win

I am entitled to change my mind and I have to some extent. That and quality road being out of the race. I don't think is going to be alot of pace in the race, and if there is not a pace in the race IWR will not have to run fast and if he can get away with no running fast the race is over.

Alaphabet soup while not great, was extremely game. go back and look at the 96 classic. you weren't going to look him in the eye and pass him. I think papa clem is the same way


there are not 7 or 8 horses that can win. there are 7 or 8 horses that don't suck. there is a big difference between the two. Choclate Candy, POTN, Fresin fire, Desert Party don't suck. but they have no realistic chance of winning they are too slow.

There are only really, 2 horses that can win, and a half.

[Relwob Owner]

I am entitled to change my mind and I have to some extent. That and quality road being out of the race. I don't think is going to be alot of pace in the race, and if there is not a pace in the race IWR will not have to run fast and if he can get away with no running fast the race is over.

Alaphabet soup while not great, was extremely game. go back and look at the 96 classic. you weren't going to look him in the eye and pass him. I think papa clem is the same way


there are not 7 or 8 horses that can win. there are 7 or 8 horses that don't suck. there is a big difference between the two. Choclate Candy, POTN, Fresin fire, Desert Party don't suck. but they have no realistic chance of winning they are too slow.

There are only really, 2 horses that can win, and a half.


Strange that you would start a thread about one horse and why he couldnt win and then nine days later, say he is one of two and a half out of 20 that is the only one that has a chance to win......especially in a race like the Derby where nothing really changed except that Quality Road isnt running, which doesnt really impact IWR at all except that one good contender is out....


I have already noticed that your "too slow" analysis is your go to for explaining why you dont like horses....for Fresian Fire, it just doesnt apply at all...look at his fractions and who he was running against and "slow" isnt his concern....distance may be.....thinking only 2 and half horses out of 20 can win a race like the Derby doesnt give credence to the importance of what trip a horse gets and that a horse can be much the best and not hit the board....

Lastly, Papa Clem and his gameness doesnt make sense to me, either-Fresian Fire went right by him and Pioner of the Nile outgamed him as well...he passed a tired and hurt Old Fashioned and other than that was only game against MSW competition.....

[toussaud]

i'm fickle like that.

I don't think you read my post very closely if you think I am looking at horses he has beaten and calling him slow. I get pretty technical when I break down a race, I concentrate on splits more than anything and I look at accelration and decelration. When I say FF is too slow, I mean literarly, he is TOO SLOW.. not in "too slow" that he hasn't beaten any one.. too slow in the sense that he is not fast enough to win. he doesn't have the turn of foot to win it, and has not in any of his races shown a statistial turn of foot necessry to pull off a derby win.

In fact I believe he is quite possibly the worst overlay in the race. he has run in races with pretty soft fractions and still runs him slow. horse has no turn of foot. in the risen star after running the 7th and 8th furlong in 25 seconds he runs the last furlong in 7 seconds. that's SLOW. at least IWR can product a legit turn of foot under the right circimstances.

I mentioned the horses he was beating simply to put it out there how crappy they horses down there had to be to get beat that badly.

[Relwob Owner]

i'm fickle like that.

I don't think you read my post very closely if you think I am looking at horses he has beaten and calling him slow. I get pretty technical when I break down a race, I concentrate on splits more than anything and I look at accelration and decelration. When I say FF is too slow, I mean literarly, he is TOO SLOW.. not in "too slow" that he hasn't beaten any one.. too slow in the sense that he is not fast enough to win. he doesn't have the turn of foot to win it, and has not in any of his races shown a statistial turn of foot necessry to pull off a derby win.

I have read all your posts and many times, your info makes no sense and you throw out info that when looked into, isnt really accurate.....for instance, you say Papa Clem is game when he hasnt proved that at all. You say Fresian Fire is too slow but you back Papa Clem, who Fresian Fire went by with ease....as far as being "technical" with your posts--you have compared splits at different tracks, which doesnt make sense in many ways either.....

[xfile]

I WANT REVENGE
WESTSIDE BERNIE
CHOCOLATE CANDY
...based 90% on pedigree analysis

[Bettowin]

I have read all your posts and many times, your info makes no sense and you throw out info that when looked into, isnt really accurate.....for instance, you say Papa Clem is game when he hasnt proved that at all. You say Fresian Fire is too slow but you back Papa Clem, who Fresian Fire went by with ease....as far as being "technical" with your posts--you have compared splits at different tracks, which doesnt make sense in many ways either.....


Amen.

I am just waiting for Toussad's final picks:)

[toussaud]

I alread said I it 10 times, it's dunkirk or IWR, more than likely dunkirk but depends on the odds.

[46zilzal]

Dunkirk does have the unique distinction of running versus the fastest pace of race of ANY of the entrants here. If he improves off his fledgling efforts, and repeats anywhere near that effort against the BEST colt not here (Quality Road) he fits the profile for the race better than most. This field has an abundance of late runners and I fear a huge traffic jam. Being UP front at least at the 3/4's mark will be a big plus this year.

[toussaud]

Dunkirk does have the unique distinction of running versus the fastest pace of race of ANY of the entrants here. If he improves off his fledgling efforts, and repeats anywhere near that effort against the BEST colt not here (Quality Road) he fits the profile for the race better than most. This field has an abundance of late runners and I fear a huge traffic jam. Being UP front at least at the 3/4's mark will be a big plus this year.
nail on the head.

the only reason I am even considering IWR honestly is becuase I am afraid Dunkirk would get stuck in traffic or get a curlinesque trip. if dunkirk can get a clear run the race is over.

there isn't a horse, maybe outside papa clem and summer bird, that has seen the fractions anywhere near what they are going to experience on saturday besides dunkirk.

[Dahoss9698]

nail on the head.

the only reason I am even considering IWR honestly is becuase I am afraid Dunkirk would get stuck in traffic or get a curlinesque trip. if dunkirk can get a clear run the race is over.

there isn't a horse, maybe outside papa clem and summer bird, that has seen the fractions anywhere near what they are going to experience on saturday besides dunkirk.

Toussaud, did you get a chance to watch that race I added here? I was just curious what you thought, since you ignored it.

[toussaud]

no, which race?
and i"ve watched literarly every race that every horse has ran in the field, I haven't' ignored anything. that's how I handicap.

[Relwob Owner]

I alread said I it 10 times, it's dunkirk or IWR, more than likely dunkirk but depends on the odds.


Just like you dedicated a whole thread to saying IWR was a fraud.....you have three more days to change your mind and I am sure you will....throw enough mud against the will and some will stick.....

[toussaud]

Just like you dedicated a whole thread to saying IWR was a fraud.....you have three more days to change your mind and I am sure you will....throw enough mud against the will and some will stick.....
I dont' know what your gripe is. I'm entitled to change my opinion and I have. I really don't see what the big deal is.

also my opinion has been changed with the slew of defections.

[Relwob Owner]

I dont' know what your gripe is. I'm entitled to change my opinion and I have. I really don't see what the big deal is.

also my opinion has been changed with the slew of defections.

No gripe-just responding to your posts, thats all....you throw out a bunch of really strong opinions so you should expect that....in addition, you throw out many things which really dont make sense when analyzed, so you should expect comments back there as well.....as far as the slew of defections, besides Quality Road, who else that isnt in the race would you have considered?

[1st time lasix]

In recent days it seems to me that Toussand posts like a inexperienced teenager...he adds very little. I think it is him that i am "tossing." Now on my "ignore" list.

[Dahoss9698]

no, which race?
and i"ve watched literarly every race that every horse has ran in the field, I haven't' ignored anything. that's how I handicap.

It was earlier when we were discussing Lawyer Ron. I posted the replay of that years Whitney. Funny how you missed it....

[Relwob Owner]

In recent days it seems to me that Toussand posts like a inexperienced teenager...he adds very little. I think it is him that i am "tossing." Now on my "ignore" list.



I cant put my finger on what it is, but something in his posts made me want to reply and get some answers on why they seemed so random and in certain cases, incorrect....I like the 'toss" analogy, especially in Derby time:)

[JPinMaryland]

Dunkirk: This years Sweet Northern Saint?

[fmolf]

IMHO west side bernie will offer the best value in this race..he has strong pace numbers...was ahead of iwr in the stretch of the wood....is making his third start off the layoff..has run a triple digit beyer against gr1 competition running the last 3/8 in 36.75...and is working well..has the look of the improving horse..only negative isjourneyman jock elliott.....hope he sits on the rail and hopes for a street sensian trip home!

[46zilzal]

Dunkirk: This years Sweet Northern Saint?

Those two are nothing alike: former a speed type the other a from the clouds dud.

[sally]

Those two are nothing alike: former a speed type the other a from the clouds dud.

Dud? I was under the impression you felt he had a decent chance since he ran well against Quality Road...did I misunderstand? Or is it the likely traffic jam that makes him a "dud"?

[Relwob Owner]

Those two are nothing alike: former a speed type the other a from the clouds dud.


Your post reads that Dunkirk(the former) is a speed type and the "other" SNS is a come from the clouds dud....plus, you supported Dunkirk earlier in the thread and now he is a "dud"....explain either?

[46zilzal]

Dud? I was under the impression you felt he had a decent chance since he ran well against Quality Road...did I misunderstand? Or is it the likely traffic jam that makes him a "dud"?
The above statement is a HISTORICAL comparison and has NOTHING to do with tomorrow. Sweetnorthernsaint was a dud with his inappropriate racing style in HIS Derby run

[beerbong]

Winter Triangle - Just so you know this is the other forum I've seen you at.I respect your opinions and those of others here.I don't get here much but it's a nice change of pace.The more imformation the better.Good Luck
Krawdad

[Relwob Owner]

The above statement is a HISTORICAL comparison and has NOTHING to do with tomorrow. Sweetnorthernsaint was a dud with his inappropriate racing style in HIS Derby run


so Dunkirk is the speed horse and SNS is the closer who is a dud????Still makes no sense...weird comparison especially considering it has nothing to do with tomorrow :bang:

[46zilzal]

so Dunkirk is the speed horse and SNS is the closer who is a dud????Still makes no sense...weird comparison especially considering it has nothing to do with tomorrow :bang:
Since they ran in completely different years, I can't see why this is such a bother to you.

Dunkirk's % median first and then Sweetnorthersaint

[Relwob Owner]

Since they ran in completely different years, I can't see why this is such a bother to you.

Dunkirk's % median first and then Sweetnorthersaint

I love opinions but hate inaccuracies and you analysis is full of them-pointless facts and comparisons bother me as well and putting Sweetnorthernsaint in a Derby analysis is bizarre....

Opinions are opinions but many things you say as fact just arent accurate....Dunkirk is not a speed horse, it is that simple...

I am the idiot here because I got sucked into your vortex and by doing so, wasted time and space on this forum...lesson learned.

No more energy, your posts give me a headache and my "energy distribution" is gone....best of luck with you and your bets.

[JPinMaryland]

The comparison with Sweet Northern Saint is that both were/are second choice in the betting pre race. Of course in the last tick before they went off SNS went down to 6-1 I think to be the favorite, w/ Barbaro at 7-1.

I just think the odds are similar.

And of course both are money burners :eek:

[Relwob Owner]

The comparison with Sweet Northern Saint is that both were/are second choice in the betting pre race. Of course in the last tick before they went off SNS went down to 6-1 I think to be the favorite, w/ Barbaro at 7-1.

I just think the odds are similar.

And of course both are money burners :eek:


Now it makes sense....geez. Thanks for the info....

[46zilzal]

Now it makes sense....geez. Thanks for the info....
nope not even close, but no more explanations

[xfile]

DUNKIRK might take to a wet track very well. GENERAL QUARTERS too. FRIESAN FIRE has best wet track pedigree of the lot.