Twin Spires Players Pool. What's your opinion?

[andymays]

Twin Spires is doing another players pool for the Kentucky Derby. They are capping it at 75K. Players can put in as little as $10 for a piece of the pool. I will not participate because it's not for me but I think it's good for people that like this sort of thing. The last time I remember them doing this was to invest 50K in a pick 6 and they ended up with two tickets with 5 for a few grand (I think).


http://www.twinspires.com/content/customMenu?url=http://www.twinspires.com/cgi-bin/pp_rules.cgi?affid=2800

My advice would be to put 50k to win on I Want Revenge and then key Tri's, Supers, and Super High 5's with him on top but that's just me.

Anyway, agree or disagree at least Twin Spires is innovative and it will be interesting to see the tickets they come up with prior to the race.

[startngate]

Twin Spires is doing another players pool for the Kentucky Derby. They are capping it at 75K. Players can put in as little as $10 for a piece of the pool. I will not participate because it's not for me but I think it's good for people that like this sort of thing. The last time I remember them doing this was to invest 50K in a pick 6 and they ended up with two tickets with 5 for a few grand (I think).


http://www.twinspires.com/content/customMenu?url=http://www.twinspires.com/cgi-bin/pp_rules.cgi?affid=2800

My advice would be to put 50k to win on I Want Revenge and then key Tri's, Supers, and Super High 5's with him on top but that's just me.

Anyway, agree or disagree at least Twin Spires is innovative and it will be interesting to see the tickets they come up with prior to the race.
If memory serves, the biggest score was the first time they (AmericaTab at the time) did it. They had 5/6 several times at the '04 Breeders' Cup (it only paid 5/6 that year). Only horse they missed was Wilko, and if I remember the ticket he was the only horse they left out of the Juvenile.

Since then it's been a mixed bag. They've had a few that lost money and a few with decent scores. They also had the California Horse Racing Board refuse to let them do it on California Pick 6's, so that's why you don't see the pool very often anymore.

I always throw some money in for fun, but I hope they don't take your advice. I'm not that big a fan of IWR ... certainly not big enough to put 2/3's of my bankroll on his nose ... :D

[andymays]

If memory serves, the biggest score was the first time they (AmericaTab at the time) did it. They had 5/6 several times at the '04 Breeders' Cup (it only paid 5/6 that year). Only horse they missed was Wilko, and if I remember the ticket he was the only horse they left out of the Juvenile.

Since then it's been a mixed bag. They've had a few that lost money and a few with decent scores. They also had the California Horse Racing Board refuse to let them do it on California Pick 6's, so that's why you don't see the pool very often anymore.

I always throw some money in for fun, but I hope they don't take your advice. I'm not that big a fan of IWR ... certainly not big enough to put 2/3's of my bankroll on his nose ... :D


With that much money they will have to spread. In my opinion it should be played the same as if it was $750 and not 75K!

[ryesteve]

Twin Spires is doing another players pool for the Kentucky Derby. They are capping it at 75K.Historically, how have they fared? I think if you just took your 10 bucks and made a show bet, your expected return would be higher.

[andymays]

Historically, how have they fared? I think if you just took your 10 bucks and made a show bet, your expected return would be higher.


It's kinda fun to see what they play. As I said earlier I will not participate in it but the reason it's notable is that every Horseplayer wonders what it would be like to bet that much. Especially in the Pick 6.

[ryesteve]

It's kinda fun to see what they play
Same here... and I love to see the discussions that go like, "How could they spend $75k on a ticket, and leave out <fill in the blank>?!"

[kyle2227]

I put $25 in just for the hack of it. But I am not holding my breath.

[rrbauer]

I put $25 in just for the hack of it. But I am not holding my breath.

What part of $75K is $25? Do the Math: You would get more action giving the $25 to charity and taking the tax deduction. Everyone talks about how stupid the player pool thing is....where does the $75K come from....duh?

[rrbauer]

Well? Who got rich in this year's Player's Pool good thing? Haven't heard a peep from anyone let alone a crow! And, I know that nobody had six.

And, what about the big future-pool payoffs?

[andymays]

I completely forgot about this. I went to the site and didn't see any mention of their bets on Derby Day. Since we have Pick 6 and Super Hi-5 carryovers I assume they blew $75,000.

Update.. they hit 8 Pick-6 consolation tickets (5 of 6 payoff) for a gross return of $13,750.40

This Wednesday they want $100,000 for the carryovers at Churchill. I'll pass again and play it on my own!

[BombsAway Bob]

What part of $75K is $25? Do the Math: You would get more action giving the $25 to charity and taking the tax deduction. Everyone talks about how stupid the player pool thing is....where does the $75K come from....duh?
IMO, It's Great marketing by TWIN SPIRES... they get their cut taking the bet regardless of outcome... BOOKIES shoulda thought of this one a long time ago!

[cmoore]

I've played in it a few times...Actually made a profit once. I think...They need to play more singles and just go for it..

[rrpic6]

As some of you might know, I was in the original Player's Pool in 2004, started by the fine folks at Beulah Park and Winticket.com. When Churchill Downs bought out Winticket and BRIS a few years ago, they kept the Player's Pool concept. I'm proud to say we had quite a run. In the years that I was involved, I'm estimating we doubled everyone's money, collecting 500K and giving back about a Million dollars. Some say "'BIG DEAL"! I say find any stockbroker in America that has doubled people's money in approximately 14 days, which is about how many times I was involved with Rich Nilsen from BRIS, along with Brad Anderson from Columbus, Stanley Bavish, and a few others that helped out. In the 2006 KY. Derby the Pick 6 paid about 125K, in 2007 we had 2 of the 4 tickets for about 500K. I always enjoyed the banter here on PA the times we did not win. I also tried to explain how the time constraints and computer problems encountered during the process.

In 2008, Twinspires made quite a few changes, including replacing myself with a different handicapper. Rich and myself hade tried to incorporate the Superfectas previously, as its payoffs were enormous in many Derbies. IMO, the Hi-5 is not a good idea, as the pool money is not enough to generate a big payout. I know Rich does the best he can to contruct the tickets in the allotted time. As the clock ticks, he must spend all the money collected. We would have liked to have had a computer program made up to separate our "A", "B", "C", selections, to have made hundreds of smaller tickets, but it never happened. I agree the "caveman ticket" sometimes looks ridiculous. However, we did single Street Sense in 2007 on one of the two winning tickets. We've also made blunders by singling Dylan Thomas on most tickets in the 2007 Breeders Cup! (Maybe that's why I got the boot)!;) Hope this helps out a little.

RR

[andymays]

As of 5:42 PST on Tuesday. Current Pool Total: $63,165.00 for Wednesday 5-6 @ Churchill Downs.

[andymays]

As of 4:50 am PST the Current Pool Total: $73,950.00.

Fields are kinda short so it's gonna be interesting how they construct their pick 6 ticket(s).

[rrpic6]

As of 4:50 am PST the Current Pool Total: $73,950.00.

Fields are kinda short so it's gonna be interesting how they construct their pick 6 ticket(s).

In 2005, before California banned the Player's Pool concept, we played into a large carryover at Hollywood. When it appeared that most legs would be won by short odds horses, we were able to construct about ten winning tickets. Each paid about 10K. I believe Rich will attempt to do this today. IMO, they will not attempt to spend more than 20K on one ticket. That ticket would be an attempt to have the only winning ticket if a string of longshots would win. Look for as many as 20 to 25 tickets to be made in the $1000-$4000 range

RR

[andymays]

Pool Closed...

Players' Pool is now closed
Final Pool Total: $80,375.00


Plays will be posted about 2:00pm EST on Twin Spires!

[rrpic6]

Assuming they make a ticket costing 20K, which should cover most likely winners it will look like this:

Leg A: 1,3,5,6,8
Leg B: 1,2,3,4,6
Leg C: 2,3,7,12
Leg D: 1,2,3,4,6
Leg E: ALL
Leg F: 3,4,5,6,8

$20,000

RR

[andymays]

Pick 6 Tickets are in:


P6- Ticket A
R4)# 1,3,5,6,7,8: #5 won paid $9.40 to win
R5)# 1,2,3,4,5,6
R6)# 2,3,7,8,10,12
R7)# 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
R8)# 1,3,4,5
R9)# 2,3,4,6
Ticket Cost: $48,384.00

P6- Ticket B
R4)# 2,4
R5)# 1,2,3,4,6
R6)# 2,3,7,10,12
R7)# 1,2,3,4,6
R8)# 1,4
R9)# 4,6
Ticket Cost: $2,000.00

P6- Ticket C
R4)# 1,5,6,8: #5 won paid $9.40 to win
R5)# 3
R6)# 2,12
R7)# 1,2,3,4,6
R8)# 1,4
R9)# 1,4,6,8,10
Ticket Cost: $800.00

P6- Ticket D
R4)# 1,2,4
R5)# 3,6
R6)# 2,12
R7)# 1,2,6
R8)# 4
R9)# 1,2,3,8,10
Ticket Cost: $360.00

[andymays]

$1 Super Hi-5 - Ticket A
# 2,3,4,6
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10

Ticket Cost: $6,720.00
$1 Super Hi-5 - Ticket B
# 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
WT # 2,3,4,6
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
Ticket Cost: $6,720.00

$1 Super Hi-5 - Ticket C
# 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
Ticket Cost: $15,120.00

$1 Super Hi-5 - Ticket D
# 3,4,6
WT # 2,3,4,6
WT # 2,3,4,6
WT # 1,2,3,4,6,10
WT # 1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10
Ticket Cost: $270.00

$1 Super Hi-5 - Ticket E
# 4
WT # 3
WT # 2
WT # 1
WT # 10
Ticket Cost: $1.00

[andymays]

Only one alive for 6

P6- Ticket A
R4)# 1,3,5,6,7,8: #5 won paid $9.40 to win
R5)# 1,2,3,4,5,6
R6)# 2,3,7,8,10,12
R7)# 1,2,3,4,5,6,7
R8)# 1,3,4,5
R9)# 2,3,4,6
Ticket Cost: $48,384.00

[andymays]

Missed last leg with the #5 winning!

[rrpic6]

My 20K ticket was a winner! Did I win anything?

RR

[andymays]

Hit ticket C for the Hi-5 for $15,509


Lost over 50K overall I believe!

[andymays]

My 20K ticket was a winner! Did I win anything?

RR

$2.00 Pick-6 5/3/1,2,4,5,6,9,11/4/3/5 6 of 6 $33557.80

[andymays]

New Players Pool for tomorrow at Belmont. Capped and closed at 50k!

Same Three Handicappers I believe!

[andymays]

Players' Pool Ticket

Ticket #1
Race 6) 1,3,5,6: #6 paid $3.80 to win
Race 7) 5
Race 8) 1,2,4,6,8
Race 9) 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9
Race 10) 1,2,3,5,6,9, 11,12
Race 11) 1,2,4,6,7

Ticket Cost: $ 14,400


Ticket #2
Race 6) 1,3,5,6: #6 paid $3.80 to win
Race 7) 1,2,3,5,6,7,8
Race 8) 1,2,4,6,8
Race 9) 6,7,8,9
Race 10) 1,2,5,6,9,12
Race 11) 2,6,7


Ticket Cost: $ 20,160


Ticket #3
Race 6) 2,3,4,6: #6 paid $3.80 to win
Race 7) 5
Race 8) 1,2,4,6,8
Race 9) 6,7,8,9
Race 10) 1,2,5,6,9,12
Race 11) 1,2,4,6,7


Ticket Cost: $ 4,800


Ticket #4
Race 6) 1,3,5,6: #6 paid $3.80 to win
Race 7) 5
Race 8) 1,2,4,6,8
Race 9) 2,6,7,8,9
Race 10) 1,2,5,6,9,12
Race 11) 2,8,9,10

Ticket Cost: $ 4,800


Ticket #5
Race 6) 1,3,5,6: #6 paid $3.80 to win
Race 7) 5
Race 8) 3,5,7
Race 9) 6,7,8,9
Race 10) 1,2,3,5,6,9,11,12
Race 11) 1,2,4,6,7

Ticket Cost: $ 3,840


Ticket #6
Race 6) 3,5,6: #6 paid $3.80 to win
Race 7) 1,3,5,6,7,8
Race 8) 2
Race 9) 1,2,4,5,8
Race 10) 1,5,9
Race 11) 2,6,7

Ticket Cost: $ 1,620


Ticket #7
Race 6) 3,6: #6 paid $3.80 to win
Race 7) 5,8
Race 8) 1,2
Race 9) 8,9
Race 10) 1,5,9
Race 11) 2,3,5,6

Ticket Cost: $ 384


Ticket #8
Race 6) 4,6: #6 paid $3.80 to win
Race 7) 5
Race 8) 2
Race 9) 8,9
Race 10) 1,5
Race 11) 6

Ticket Cost: $ 16

[Pace Cap'n]

Only tickets #2 & #6 are still alive after R7.

[andymays]

Still Alive after race 8

Ticket #2
Race 6) 1,3,5,6: #6 paid $3.80 to win
Race 7) 1,2,3,5,6,7,8
Race 8) 1,2,4,6,8
Race 9) 6,7,8,9
Race 10) 1,2,5,6,9,12
Race 11) 2,6,7


Ticket Cost: $ 20,160

[ryesteve]

... and dead after race 9....

[andymays]

Still Alive after race 8

Ticket #2
Race 6) 1,3,5,6: #6 paid $3.80 to win
Race 7) 1,2,3,5,6,7,8
Race 8) 1,2,4,6,8
Race 9) 6,7,8,9
Race 10) 1,2,5,6,9,12
Race 11) 2,6,7


Ticket Cost: $ 20,160


Outsky! No #2 in race 9


I'm getting killed myself today. If anyone here has ever played a big ticket (I think my biggest was close to 3k) it's not as easy as people think. I've always done my best on smaller tickets.

[exiles]

Moe, Larry, and Shemp,embarrassed them selfs again today, in the TWIN SPIRES PLAYERS POOL in the 1st leg race 6 , where # 6 was a clear stand out they gave equal weight to the 1-3-and 5 on over $40.000 of the 50.000 they had to play with, they played the pick 6 like it was a lottery i feel sorry for the folks who invested in that pool.

[vikingrob]

Ticket #1 was the only one that got anything - it got 5 right once, missing on a single in the 7th race.

[gamester01]

On Belmont day, they had $50,000 and bot about 6 tickets.
one consolation.
They had all the right numbers but on different tickets.
If they want to win, they have to get $100,000 and buy one ticket and hope.
I suggested this to them a year ago.
Good handicappers but basically stupid guys.
I like to win.

Gamester01

[exiles]

On Belmont day, they had $50,000 and bot about 6 tickets.
one consolation.
They had all the right numbers but on different tickets.
If they want to win, they have to get $100,000 and buy one ticket and hope.
I suggested this to them a year ago.
Good handicappers but basically stupid guys.
I like to win.

Gamester01

With $50000 to bet into a pick 6 anybody will look like a good handicapper, the 3 stooges should thank god they have a day job, i feel sorry for the folks that invested in that pool, they all should get their money refunded , you call them stupid i don't think they are stupid, they are very lucky,to have won handicapper of the year which is basically a lottery.

[rrbauer]

They had all the right numbers but on different tickets.
If they want to win, they have to get $100,000 and buy one ticket and hope.
Good handicappers but basically stupid guys.


So having the right numbers makes them good handicappers; but, having them on the wrong tickets makes them stupid guys?

Basically what the TS players pool approach does is give those three players extra money to subsidize their big plays and allow them to go deeper than they otherwise would. Because it's structured to benefit those guys at the expense of TS customers makes it a sham, but this is TS and they aren't above a little chicanery at customers' expense.

The reason that you don't put all the spots on one ticket is that all the spots don't have the same chance of winning. The idea is to build tickets that reflect individual horse's chance of winning such that the horses' with the greatest chance of winning end up on the most number of tickets. In addition, it helps to remove combinations from the play that are dominated by (say more than 3) favorites. This makes the play more fragmented in terms of tickets (increases the number) but it is correct statistically.

In this instance, spreading $50K over only six tickets is not much of a spread. Does anyone know what the takeout rate was on the Belmont P6? (It varies depending on the presence/absence of a carryover on regular days, but I don't know if there is a special provision for Belmont day.) This players' pool promotion gets TS enough extra revenue from the handle that they think that it's worth while. Right there should be enough caveat for customers.

[BillW]

Does anyone know what the takeout rate was on the Belmont P6? (It varies depending on the presence/absence of a carryover on regular days, but I don't know if there is a special provision for Belmont day.)

16% non-carryover days
26% carryover days