Last Race Beyer Speed Fig for '09 Ky-Derby

[Easy Goer]

I know many have a disdain for the Beyer Speed Figs but they have been fairly accurate in helping to determine the Winner of the last 3 runnings of the Ky-Derby, meaning horses within the Top 5 Hi-Last Race Speed Fig have Won the Ky-Derby. The horses with the Top Last Race Beyer Speed Figs are as follows below.

Dunkirk-108
Friesan Fire-104
I Want Revenge-103
Papa Clem-101
West Side Bernie-101
Summer Bird-99
Musket Man-98
Pioneer of the Nile-96
Win Willy-96

Because Pioneer of the Nile has been racing on synthetics I decided to list all the way down to the mid 90's. My thinking is Dirt races make for higher Speed Figs. After the Derby is over lets see if the Winner is among the Top 5 or the Top 9 or not among the Top 9 at All.

[MrHotStuff]

Thanks for that. I keep returning to West Side Bernie. I know he is bred for Speed Top and Bottom.

But :

1. 101 Byers
2. Dual Qualifier
3. 1 bad race is on Poly with Prado who moved too early.
(Does it work in the opposit sometimes. Dirt to Poly ?)
4. Elliott
5. Bernstein's best performers have raced in South America. He is the sire of Storm Mayor, the champion stayer in Argentina with wins at 1 ½ miles on both turf and dirt, and at 1 9/16 miles on dirt. He has also produced Storm Military, a stakes-winner at 1 1/4 miles in Argentina.

6. he is the First Foal from Time honored. I think she is carrying the Distance through Her Dam Hazels Honor out of Honor Grades. he is a Half to Ap Indy and Summer Squall. Reaching i know. But it has to cxome from somewhere.

I think he can hit the Board, easily @ 40-1 i wish he would have made a little better move after IWR came out and knocked him over to the middle of the course. ;)

[fmolf]

i tossed out all the ark. derby horses!I believe the track was tricked up for that race..... or it was just a fast surface that day .....either way i am discounting those horses

[Bruddah]

i tossed out all the ark. derby horses!I believe the track was tricked up for that race..... or it was just a fast surface that day .....either way i am discounting those horses

The Ark Derby surface was nominally the same as the Rebel and Southwest prep races ran earlier in the meet. The crew prepares the surface basically in the same manor on major race days. If it was a tinge faster on Derby day, it was because it was more Spring like weather in the Ozark Mountains that weekend. It usually is for the mid January to mid April meet at Oaklawn.

[OTM Al]

I know many have a disdain for the Beyer Speed Figs but they have been fairly accurate in helping to determine the Winner of the last 3 runnings of the Ky-Derby, meaning horses within the Top 5 Hi-Last Race Speed Fig have Won the Ky-Derby. The horses with the Top Last Race Beyer Speed Figs are as follows below.

Dunkirk-108
Friesan Fire-104
I Want Revenge-103
Papa Clem-101
West Side Bernie-101
Summer Bird-99
Musket Man-98
Pioneer of the Nile-96
Win Willy-96

Because Pioneer of the Nile has been racing on synthetics I decided to list all the way down to the mid 90's. My thinking is Dirt races make for higher Speed Figs. After the Derby is over lets see if the Winner is among the Top 5 or the Top 9 or not among the Top 9 at All.

Be very careful with these and remember how they came about. Dunkirk was upgraded 8 points after the fact and ran on a track that was really sped up. I Want Revenge was left at the break and had some big traffic problems, so judge that number as you will and FF had a lifetime top winning by open lengths in the slop, so that number is a little funny too. Individual BSFs like this tell very little of the story about both the race and the horse

[Easy Goer]

Be very careful with these and remember how they came about. Dunkirk was upgraded 8 points after the fact and ran on a track that was really sped up. I Want Revenge was left at the break and had some big traffic problems, so judge that number as you will and FF had a lifetime top winning by open lengths in the slop, so that number is a little funny too. Individual BSFs like this tell very little of the story about both the race and the horse

Dont Worry Al. I never base my total analysis on any one method, especially when it comes to the Ky-Derby. I just think its an interesting discussion, particularly after the War Emblem Ky-Derby when War Emblem had the Highest Last Race Beyer Speed Fig & then the betting crowd promptly let him go off at $20-1, I remember many questioning the validity of the # due to his last race having been @ Sportsmans Park (Laughs).

Yeah that was real funny because I think even Andy Beyer himself didnt pick War Emblem because he doubted the class & competition level in the ILL-Derby @ Sportsmans Park too.

[fmolf]

I know many have a disdain for the Beyer Speed Figs but they have been fairly accurate in helping to determine the Winner of the last 3 runnings of the Ky-Derby, meaning horses within the Top 5 Hi-Last Race Speed Fig have Won the Ky-Derby. The horses with the Top Last Race Beyer Speed Figs are as follows below.

Dunkirk-108
Friesan Fire-104
I Want Revenge-103
Papa Clem-101
West Side Bernie-101
Summer Bird-99
Musket Man-98
Pioneer of the Nile-96
Win Willy-96

Because Pioneer of the Nile has been racing on synthetics I decided to list all the way down to the mid 90's. My thinking is Dirt races make for higher Speed Figs. After the Derby is over lets see if the Winner is among the Top 5 or the Top 9 or not among the Top 9 at All.
also remember that in the last 16 yrs only two winners have not run a triple digit beyer in one of its last three races... sea hero-(1993)-paid $27.80 and giacomo-(2005)-paid $102.60 so tread carefully

[Easy Goer]

I know many have a disdain for the Beyer Speed Figs but they have been fairly accurate in helping to determine the Winner of the last 3 runnings of the Ky-Derby, meaning horses within the Top 5 Hi-Last Race Speed Fig have Won the Ky-Derby. The horses with the Top Last Race Beyer Speed Figs are as follows below.

Dunkirk-108
Friesan Fire-104
I Want Revenge-103
Papa Clem-101
West Side Bernie-101
Summer Bird-99
Musket Man-98
Pioneer of the Nile-96
Win Willy-96

Because Pioneer of the Nile has been racing on synthetics I decided to list all the way down to the mid 90's. My thinking is Dirt races make for higher Speed Figs. After the Derby is over lets see if the Winner is among the Top 5 or the Top 9 or not among the Top 9 at All.

With the late scratch of Win Willy, the list of Top Last Race Beyer Speed Fig horses for the Ky-Derby has changed at the bottom of the list as follows below.

Dunkirk-108
Friesan Fire-104
I Want Revenge-103
Papa Clem-101
West Side Bernie-101
Summer Bird-99
Musket Man-98
Pioneer of the Nile-96
General Quarters-95
Chocolate Candy-94

I also decided to add "Chocolate Candy" because he finished 2nd in the SA-Derby & also because his last races were also over synthetic tracks. Again the thinking is had his last couple of races been over dirt tracks then his Speed Fig would be higher.

Ok lets see if the Winner of the '09 Ky-Derby will be among the Top 5 Highest Last Race Beyer Speed Fig horses like it has been for the last 3 years or among the Top 10 or not among the Top 10 at all.

[Bettowin]

The Ark Derby surface was nominally the same as the Rebel and Southwest prep races ran earlier in the meet. The crew prepares the surface basically in the same manor on major race days. If it was a tinge faster on Derby day, it was because it was more Spring like weather in the Ozark Mountains that weekend. It usually is for the mid January to mid April meet at Oaklawn.

The Rebel weekend was wet and cold. IMO, the track was much slower than it was for Ark Derby day. With that said, Papa Clem caught Old Fashioned who I never thought could get much over a mile and Summer Bird would have caught them both with another 100 yards so I think Summer Bird will finish ahead of Papa Clem and neither will hit the money. However I am not going to leave SB out of the fourth spot on my super tickets.