Who Inherits Pace-Setter Role

[Easy Goer]

In this years Ky-Derby now that Quality Road has been declared out of the race, Who will become the Early Fractions Leader?

I honestly cant determine by the pp's, but I'm thinking it will be Papa Clem or maybe Friesan Fire since he turned in a blistering 5fur workout on Monday.

I'm kind of thinking that whoever does become the front runner wont have the ability to go Gate to Wire maybe like Quality Road would have. But one never knows until the race is run?

My Early Pace scenario has Friesan Fire breaking 2nd or 3rd then taking over at about somewhere after the 1st 1/4 then on the lead & trying to Go the Distance to the Wire. Somebody is going to have to decide then who is going to challenge Him. But I dont know who that will be? If Friesan Fire is able to get an easy 1/2 in .47 & change & an easy 3/4's in maybe around 1:13 then it could be his race to Win or Lose.

I'm basing this prediction on the fact that few of the major contenders have 1/2 mile times of .47 secs or less in their G-1-2-3 Races & the ones that do may not want to engage in a protracted pace battle that early in the race.

[samyn on the green]

Regal Ransom should have the lead. Not only is he fast but he is part of an entry and the faster he goes the better it is for Desert Party.

[Derbyman32]

I am having a really hard time with this Derby after the injury to Quality Road. I thought that he would have been the major pace factor and most likely winner.

The thing that bothers me is the Sheikh's horses Desert Party and Regal Ransom I do think Regal Ransom could be the speed but I have no idea how far he carries it.

From what I have seen Desert Party has also been reported to be doing very good. I think that the Sheikh will win a Derby its just a matter of time.

I wish I could figure out the pace and the scenario that you stated with Friesan Fire could play out that way. Larry Jones has proved he can bring a horse to the Derby and he may get the job done this year. I know Hard Spun had the same kind of work going into the Derby and he ran a great race.

Figures to be a fun and great betting Derby.

[Easy Goer]

Regal Ransom should have the lead. Not only is he fast but he is part of an entry and the faster he goes the better it is for Desert Party.

Thats certainly a good choice, as Regal Ransom has shown early speed in his races in the USA. He also Won the UAE Derby after taking the lead shortly after the 1st 1/4 mile.

[fmolf]

the question is not who will be out on the lead that should be regal ransom baring an extreme outside draw ,but who if anybody will go with him?o lot of this depends on the post position draw...i will give my opinion in more detail near the end of the week

[Oaklawn]

There's a lot of rain going through Lexington in the next few days. Who has the pedigree or experience on the slop?

[SMOO]

There's a lot of rain going through Lexington in the next few days. Who has the pedigree or experience on the slop?

Desert Party
Friesan Fire
Take The Points

have all won in the slop

[JustRalph]

There's a lot of rain going through Lexington in the next few days. Who has the pedigree or experience on the slop?

What about Louisville? Lex I could care less

[Market Mover]

Regal Ransom is a Red Ransom, and they can go long. Very long.

The Darley surprise this year is that Regal Ransom has progressed at a faster overall rate than Desert Party. And at this point, they might be on level terms (in fact, Dettori was quite surprised when RR kicked back and didn't let Desert Party pass him in deep stretch of Nad Al Sheba).

Alan Garcia is a very strong rider on the lead. He's light, he can sit tight, and give 'em a rousing stretch ride. If he can get reach the 6 furlong mark in 1:12 or slower, I feel this horse will have a great shot at hitting the top three...

The Sheikh wants to win this race very badly, and I feel Suroor's instructions to Alan will be to secure the lead no matter what. Perhaps the more interesting strategy will be coming from Friesan Fire's corner. Gab Saez might have been more highly criticized on what happened to Eight Belles as they crossed the wire into the clubhouse turn, but I think this jock will remember his late move on Eight Belles last year essentially let Big Brown spurt away and get the best of them. I feel the most important factor in this race is when Friesan Fire makes his move. This horse has been dominant when he is able to make his move and overtake the leaders towards the beginning of the far turn, and then command the race into the stretch...

But we are not at FGNO. We are at Churchill, and when Saez decides to engage Regal Ransom is the rate limiting step of this Derby. If he presses RR too soon, they are going to speed up away from the field and 6 furlong mark to 1:11 or faster even. That'll draw the stalkers and dilute their stretch drives. This would favor the deeper closers as there's going to be a lot of tired horses in deep stretch. I would press the case for Chocolate Candy to pick 'em up very late. Of the California horses, he takes the longest to get his run going, but it's a sustained run and a consistent, grinding run every time. He was ready to go another furlong to catch POTN at the end of that paceless SA Derby...In this scenario, Regal Ransom would finish off the board, and you'll have a better chance with Darley in the superfectas using his stablemate Desert Party.

However, let's say a second scenario developed. Let's say Saez, a good rider (albeit inexperienced Derby rider), decides to lay further off the pace and not press RR, this changes the complexion of the race entirely. FF has good tactical speed that would put him right behind RR on any given day. But we know weird things happen in the Derby, and bad posts, bad breaks, or bad traffic trouble might put typical stalkers/pace pressers further back than they would like. If FF is not pressing towards the lead by the 6 furlong mark, we've got an entirely different outcome.

In this second scenario, I see RR slowing the tempo beyond 1:12, and giving his stalkers a distinct advantage from the closers. In this scenario, POTN, Papa Clem, and Flying Private may have better chances because they've got essentially head starts on closers like IWR, Summer Bird, Win Willy, et al...

The most difficult aspect of handicapping the Derby is trying to envision who is where at the 6 furlong mark...then you can start developing vertical plays based on who has the best chance at completing your intended slots. As I handicap this Derby, I'm still wondering where Musket Man and General Quarters will be at this juncture?

[big frank]

ATOMIC RAIN will be on the boiler... At the finish it will be DUNKIRK in front AND DRAWING AWAY !!!!!!!!!!!!