$1 Derby Superfecta Key - Interested in feedback/comments - pp may change things

[menifee]

Comments on this play?

IWR
FF, DK, CC

FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ

FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ

$144 play

FF, DK,CC
IWR
FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ

FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ

$144 play

FF,DK,CC
FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ
IWR
FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ

$144 play


Big risks: 1. Throwing out the Dubai shippers. 2. Not having Pioneer of the Nile first. 3. Keying on Talamo (he's a great jockey, but he's young and can get in trouble) 4. I'm light in the first and second spots, but I really can't see any of these other horses cracking those first two spots (other than PON)

Super paid 24K last year with the favorite on top - so I might try this play this year.

[Market Mover]

What happened to the dime minimums? And is the pick three linking the Oaks-Woodford Reserve-Derby still a dollar min.?

[menifee]

My understanding is that there are no dime supers. I would love it if there were. I love playing .50 supers.

[garyscpa]

Comments on this play?

IWR
FF, DK, CC

FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ

FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ

$144 play

FF, DK,CC
IWR
FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ

FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ

$144 play

FF,DK,CC
FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ
IWR
FF, DK, CC, PON, WW, WSB, PC, MM, MRHS, HMB, GQ

$144 play


Big risks: 1. Throwing out the Dubai shippers. 2. Not having Pioneer of the Nile first. 3. Keying on Talamo (he's a great jockey, but he's young and can get in trouble) 4. I'm light in the first and second spots, but I really can't see any of these other horses cracking those first two spots (other than PON)

Super paid 24K last year with the favorite on top - so I might try this play this year.

I think you've got a good chance, but I think your play costs $270 per wheel.

[cj's dad]

I think you've got a good chance, but I think your play costs $270 per wheel.

Correctomundo :ThmbUp:

[Bettowin]

IMO you can take Win Willy out of third but I would have Summer Bird in fourth.

[sally]

I think it's a big mistake to discount dubai shippers....

[Bettowin]

Here is my prelimary without knowing post positions.

FF, IWR
FF, IWR, DK
FF, IWR, MM, DK, SB
FF, IWR, MM, DK, SB ,WW, WSB, DP, POTN, PC, CC,

$96

IWR
FF, MM, DK
FF, MM, SB, POTN, DK, RR, DP
FF, MM, SB, POTN, DK, RR, DP, WW, WSB, PC, CC

$162


These get expensive fast:) Probably going to concentrate on the trifecta.

[LemonSoupKid]

I'm looking at this wager currently and my response is, "Oh boy do they"

[1st time lasix]

I think it's a big mistake to discount dubai shippers.... I agree....i would remove General Quarters who i feel has no shot of finishing in top four to make room. good luck.

[Sabong]

I am going to play a big ticket & hope for prices. Here is how I see it now & doubt much will change if the track is sloppy & or pp because I have so many horses covered.
$1 super $1,320
1st IWR, Desert Party
2nd IWR, DP, Dunkirk, FF, PC, RR
3rd & 4th IWR, DP, Dunkirk, FF, PC, RR, Musket Man, CC, GenQ, Hold Me Back, Summer Bird, WestSB, POTN, Mr Hot Stuff

I'm leaving out: Win Willy, Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Join The Dance, Atomic Rain & Advice

I really think the Dubai horses will run huge. I think IWR is the horse to beat as the fav. If Join The Dance does not wreck things I really dont see the pace being that crazy. FF would be very dangerous in that case as well but I just dont see him or Dunkirk winning. I dont like POTN but would feel silly going so deep & leaving him out as if I did he would probley run a well beaten 4th.

[Bettowin]

I am going to play a big ticket & hope for prices. Here is how I see it now & doubt much will change if the track is sloppy & or pp because I have so many horses covered.
$1 super $1,320
1st IWR, Desert Party
2nd IWR, DP, Dunkirk, FF, PC, RR
3rd & 4th IWR, DP, Dunkirk, FF, PC, RR, Musket Man, CC, GenQ, Hold Me Back, Summer Bird, WestSB, POTN, Mr Hot Stuff

I'm leaving out: Win Willy, Mine That Bird, Flying Private, Join The Dance, Atomic Rain & Advice

I really think the Dubai horses will run huge. I think IWR is the horse to beat as the fav. If Join The Dance does not wreck things I really dont see the pace being that crazy. FF would be very dangerous in that case as well but I just dont see him or Dunkirk winning. I dont like POTN but would feel silly going so deep & leaving him out as if I did he would probley run a well beaten 4th.


If you are going that deep and playing that many horses I would reverse it for the trifecta only costing $70 and covers you against a huge winner upset:)