Recency

[misscashalot]

I won't consider betting any horse to win coming into a race off a race of 20 days or more, no matter how good, or no matter how big a class drop, if it doesn't have a work after that race.

Any other thoughts about recency?

[BELMONT 6-6-09]

A published workout within 10 days is what I look for when a horse has not run within three weeks. It seems today that only a handful of trainers win with their charges within a week or less. Years ago this recent race was much more significant. Today it depends on the trainer.

[fmolf]

I like to see a race within 28 days with a work at no longer than 14 days prior to the race preferably a 5f work

[BlueShoe]

Agree.Will consider a runner that has been away up to 21 days without showing a published work.Beyond that,want to see at least one work for every 7 days over that 21 day since raced.Example;horse has been away 33 days,would insist on at least two works showing.Recent works show soundness and intention.Now,like just about everthing else in racing,there are exceptions.There are a few runners that show no works whatsoever under their pp's,but who continue to run well.On these types,would think that the trainer has found that the horse runs best and keeps fit with slow gallops between races.Some trainers,once a horse is in form,will cease works and just gallop the horse between races.The catch is knowing which trainers do this.This recency and works question is one that is still a problem for me,but by sticking to my rules do miss out on a few winners,but also pass a heck of a lot of losers.Have to relate something that zinged me a couple of years ago.Had a horse that I really liked,only he had raced 25 or 26 days ago with no work since,so I passed the race.He won at 10 or 11 to one.When he raced back after that win,noticed that he had breezed 3f the day before the winning race.Since the DRF is published early now,the work was not in the form,so missed it.It is things like this that make this such a complex,frustrating pastime.

[point given]

Agree.Will consider a runner that has been away up to 21 days without showing a published work.Beyond that,want to see at least one work for every 7 days over that 21 day since raced.Example;horse has been away 33 days,would insist on at least two works showing.Recent works show soundness and intention.Now,like just about everthing else in racing,there are exceptions.There are a few runners that show no works whatsoever under their pp's,but who continue to run well.On these types,would think that the trainer has found that the horse runs best and keeps fit with slow gallops between races.Some trainers,once a horse is in form,will cease works and just gallop the horse between races.The catch is knowing which trainers do this.This recency and works question is one that is still a problem for me,but by sticking to my rules do miss out on a few winners,but also pass a heck of a lot of losers.Have to relate something that zinged me a couple of years ago.Had a horse that I really liked,only he had raced 25 or 26 days ago with no work since,so I passed the race.He won at 10 or 11 to one.When he raced back after that win,noticed that he had breezed 3f the day before the winning race.Since the DRF is published early now,the work was not in the form,so missed it.It is things like this that make this such a complex,frustrating pastime.
once knew guys who bought the next days form to see the works the day before like the 3f breeze the day before, not in the raceday form. then there are always the trainers who work out on the farm

[fmolf]

also the better the horses the longer they hold their form on workouts alone..... cheap horse i insist on a race every 21 days..other wise i deem them sore especially at lower tier tracks..these horses need to race to pay their bills at the lower purse structure...vet bills training bills medicine bills and feed bills still the same!

[craig chapman]

Don't some trainers work a horse on there private farms? These workouts go unpublished. Some trainers also work there horses , when no one is around to clock them. I would be interested in your comments on this.

[Greyfox]

Don't some trainers work a horse on there private farms? These workouts go unpublished. Some trainers also work there horses , when no one is around to clock them. I would be interested in your comments on this.

Absolutely right . Automatically tossing runners because they've been away or they don't show works will lead to a lot of losses. "Know thy trainer."

[Dave Schwartz]

I am just finishing a new manuscript I have been working on: Percentages & Probabilitites, 2009.

In that work, I was astounded to find that recency just does not work as it used to. I guess the trainers have read the same books we have. <G>

You will be amazed.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[wonatthewire1]

Sounds very interesting Dave, let us know when it will be available.

Just looking over my records for the last 2 years; lay off horses coming back with a minimum of 3 months off is my second highest ROI spot play (w/1 other factor)

237 wagers
99 winners (41.77%)
average odds of winners: 7.31-1

[dav4463]

Sounds very interesting Dave, let us know when it will be available.

Just looking over my records for the last 2 years; lay off horses coming back with a minimum of 3 months off is my second highest ROI spot play (w/1 other factor)

237 wagers
99 winners (41.77%)
average odds of winners: 7.31-1


Give that other factor please! ;)

[46zilzal]

`a few trainers have access to pools and unclocked training tracks. best to know who they are before recency becomes a primary concern

[bettheoverlay]

My database shows 35-40 days to be the optimum, a slight drop to the 40-60 day range, and a more precipatate drop the other way. Indeed, the last 1680 starters in the 35-40 day range show 15%W and 1.05 ROI. 45-60 days is around 12.5% W and 20 days or less around 11%.

90% of the horses in the 35-40% range show a workout since their last race, horses that have none are to be shunned. A workout in the last 10 days ups the win% a tic in all ranges. 90-120 days horses often lead the way in ROI.

[CincyHorseplayer]

I think every circuit has it's own standards and you have to know them and the overall feel of trainer methods.

Here in Ohio I won't bet any horse that has raced in more than 28 days;excepting 2 instances that my records have proven to break the mold;

1)a horse coming off a win

2)a horse shipping in

But even those horses I won't bet if they've been away for 38 days or more unless a trainer specializes in it and in Ohio only one does=Bob Jeanotte.

Then comes the work criteria which is different for everywhere and everybody.

In stakes races I like to see the 5f work.In lesser at least a 4f work within 10 days.No 3f works alone.

And I just wanted to add that stats and databases are an awesome place to start but looking through forms and seeing patterns and doing the times of recency for winners,especially shippers,is a reward just by the information you will gain in the process.Too much lost in the raw numbers of statistics.

[Tampa Russ]

Wins the 13th today at TDN after 899 days on the shelf.

[Tom]

Whew! Just made my cut off of 900 days! :D

[JustRalph]

Whew! Just made my cut off of 900 days! :D


I don't bet any horse that hasn't raced since the last leap year

[DanG]

For those that haven’t read it; HTR (Ken Massa) published an excellent newsletter on ‘modern layoffs that might surprise some people who still use the previous standards on thoroughbred rest.

May / June 2007 [pg-8]: http://www.homebased2.com/km/pdf/HTRReport-MayJun07.pdf

[Dave Schwartz]

My database shows 35-40 days to be the optimum, a slight drop to the 40-60 day range, and a more precipatate drop the other way. Indeed, the last 1680 starters in the 35-40 day range show 15%W and 1.05 ROI. 45-60 days is around 12.5% W and 20 days or less around 11%.

BetOver,

This is somewhat similar to what my studies show.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Harvhorse]

Miss Cashalot, I am suprised at you, as a very sophisticated NYRA player you know very well that there are trainers who routinly win off long and short lay off. Levine and r. dutrow to name just 2. You have NYRA stats on many things you must be aware that the recency thing is old school.

[sjk]

Data from last 3 years or so:


from to win pct starts
0 4 11.90% 882
5 9 12.26% 53457
10 14 12.72% 180666
15 19 12.82% 162348
20 24 12.85% 158507
25 29 13.20% 106276
30 34 13.48% 57472
35 39 13.77% 47454
40 44 13.48% 37326
45 49 13.21% 23318
50 54 13.34% 15965
55 59 12.94% 15806
60 64 13.41% 12408
65 69 12.66% 8686
70 74 12.45% 8047
75 79 12.18% 7315
80 84 12.01% 5712
85 89 10.95% 4539
90 94 12.12% 4587
95 99 11.59% 4117
100 104 11.50% 3226
105 109 11.25% 3226
110 114 10.14% 3175
115 119 11.89% 2650
120 124 10.40% 2279
125 129 10.10% 2672
130 134 9.41% 2488
135 139 9.71% 1916
140 144 8.87% 2051
145 149 9.70% 2103
150 154 10.26% 1872
155 159 11.84% 1697
160 164 9.94% 1961
165 169 9.39% 2003
170 174 9.47% 1584
175 179 8.79% 1820
180 184 9.80% 1887
185 189 9.85% 1747
190 194 9.97% 1414
195 199 9.32% 1716
200 204 9.69% 1620
205 209 10.72% 1334
210 214 10.03% 1435
215 219 9.49% 1486
220 224 9.22% 1367
225 229 9.88% 1123
230 234 9.76% 1394
235 239 9.98% 1333
240 244 7.62% 1089
245 249 8.51% 1058
250 254 8.62% 1114
255 259 10.22% 978
260 264 10.18% 815
265 269 9.26% 972
270 274 11.27% 896
275 279 8.83% 725
280 284 10.61% 754
285 289 9.32% 783
290 294 11.17% 716
295 299 11.65% 601

[pandy]

I won't consider betting any horse to win coming into a race off a race of 20 days or more, no matter how good, or no matter how big a class drop, if it doesn't have a work after that race.

Any other thoughts about recency?

If profit is your goal (not win percentage), I think the smartest thing to do is concentrate more on horses coming off layoffs. 3yo's making their first start off the bench are the best, even off a 6 month layoff. The prices are overlaid because bettors think they need a race, but most of the time they don't. I also love horses dropping off a long layoff, as long as the odds are high.

[misscashalot]

If profit is your goal (not win percentage), I think the smartest thing to do is concentrate more on horses coming off layoffs. 3yo's making their first start off the bench are the best, even off a 6 month layoff. The prices are overlaid because bettors think they need a race, but most of the time they don't. I also love horses dropping off a long layoff, as long as the odds are high.

It's a trainer and class thing

Allowance horses do better at returning off a long layoff than cheaper runners because there's more time invested in preping a more valuable animal.

Know thy trainer's pattern. Some are great at winning first time after a long layoff like Pletcher, And some use a race or 2 to bring the horse into top running shape. Pletcher average DSLR winner is 61 days, where Mott averages 32 days. Both are primarily allowance horse trainers, so all things are equal. Draw your own conclusion.

Just a point of info.
2008 to present NYRA circuit in
860 claiming races, average DSLR winning days 34.5
718 Allowance 46 days
As you see they card alot more claiming races than allowance,
which affects this difference. So the perception of what a long layoff is should be judged by class of race. Nobody ever said it's easy.

When I see data that's lumped together from
different tracks and classes and trainers I tend
not to draw conclusions.

[FUGITIVE77]

In the midwest a lot of trainers have access to training tracks and most works go unpubilished.

[misscashalot]

Miss Cashalot, I am suprised at you, as a very sophisticated NYRA player you know very well that there are trainers who routinly win off long and short lay off. Levine and r. dutrow to name just 2. You have NYRA stats on many things you must be aware that the recency thing is old school.

Thanks for you post Harv
You're right about those 2
It is an old school thing,
if you have the tools,
and do your home work

R Dutrow is a gem
so is Jacobson
and so many more have their tells

and it all comes down to works
coupled with DSLR

Some trainers win 95% of their winning races coming
off a race in a prescribed # of days with no work in between,
and others only win coming off at least 2 works, so if they enter
while breaking a pattern, which often happens, I lay off consideration

I won't get into the works aspect because
so many here have conflicting views, which I
am sure are valid. But the views are divergent
due to the circuits. From what I glean here, and I don't
know if I'm correct, work reporting at the lower
grade circuits aren't as valid as in the NYRA venue.

I would appreciate a correction or comment
on my view about works reporting on the various circuits

[Fastracehorse]

Never say never.
Doug O'Neil in Cali often races them without a work when they r good ( Lava Man ).
He says, 'I like to leave the running for the race.'

fffastt

[misscashalot]

Never say never.
Doug O'Neil in Cali often races them without a work when they r good ( Lava Man ).
He says, 'I like to leave the running for the race.'

fffastt

I would like to know how many days btwn races he usually come with, without a work in btwn.

[Fastracehorse]

Ive seen 21 days.

Funny thing is, alot of horses can run really well with minimal prepping. Coming off the bench is actually a gr8 thing for me, but it seems alot of punters need 2 c a race. Or Uve heard of '3rd race in form cycle' being popular. I know this is different than prepping between races but how hard do they have 2 work when they have race conditioning? Some of the best first time starter runners have a very light work tab. And, some trainers like 2 c sharp drills, at Calder today a 3yo filly won as a FTStarter with a recent work best of a 100. She didn't fool anybody but could she have without giving her ability away in the work?
I guess preps help 2 keep their charges well muscled, it might be less important for routers than sprinters - routers being able to hold their form longer and getting alot of what they need from galloping, it's an interesting facet of the game to say the least.

fffastt

[Imriledup]

Don't some trainers work a horse on there private farms? These workouts go unpublished. Some trainers also work there horses , when no one is around to clock them. I would be interested in your comments on this.

Here's my take on workouts.

Workouts are used to keep an ALREADY SHARP horse sharp and not to get a dull horse to BECOME Sharp which means this.

You want slow and steady works. A trainer who is working slowly is telling you that his horse is ready and he's just using maintenance to keep him fit, sharp and happy. A trainer who works em fast is saying that my horse isn't ready so i need a few fast works to get him ready.

Less is more with works.

[CBedo]

My database shows 35-40 days to be the optimum, a slight drop to the 40-60 day range, and a more precipatate drop the other way.
I recently did a study of layoffs at Mountaineer (looking at 2008 races). I found similar results. I found that horses coming back in less than 14 days didn't do well, 14-21 were somewhat positive, 21-42 fairly neutral, then after 42 performance started to tail off, with a pretty severe drop once you got out past the 60s.

[Fastracehorse]

I recently did a study of layoffs at Mountaineer (looking at 2008 races). I found similar results. I found that horses coming back in less than 14 days didn't do well, 14-21 were somewhat positive, 21-42 fairly neutral, then after 42 performance started to tail off, with a pretty severe drop once you got out past the 60s.

DRF has a stat for horses coming back off 7 days rest.

Lots of horses win off long layoffs - with good mutuels, prob cuz punters like 2 c a race.

fffastt