form reversal and cheap claimers

[redeye007]

is there any way to know when a maiden winner last time out now facing winners has a chance to repeat? cheap claimers seem to have form reversal right after a win.

[fmolf]

is there any way to know when a maiden winner last time out now facing winners has a chance to repeat? cheap claimers seem to have form reversal right after a win.
he needs to be realistically spotted ..(half the mcl price if in open claimer same price if in n2l)msw winners need to be either in n1x or whatever claiming level is a notch below.... i look for decisive winners three lengths or more and widening in their maiden win... horse must have competitive speed figs for the new class of winners it is running against..good luck...most horses do lose though first out against winners

[eastie]

if he took a long time to break his maiden, it will probably be a while before he wins the nw2l. The thinking is that there will be less horse in the race that have already beaten him. either that or if all the horses in the 2l have had a bunch of chances already, then your guy might be ready. he should have run a last quarter in an acceptable time too, no .27's or anything like that.

[46zilzal]

is there any way to know when a maiden winner last time out now facing winners has a chance to repeat? cheap claimers seem to have form reversal right after a win.
Nope. Horses are INDIVIDUALS. Some wake up and get it, some win as a default to the pace scenario, .......dozens of variables at work here.

[Harvhorse]

For a cheap claimer to win after breaking his maiden, It is important that the trainer put him in an advantagious spot. For example in NY recently a horse won in md25sb, the trainer ran him back for 15sb instead of open and he won and the race became a key race. so if a cheap horse wins for say md12.5 a good spot to run him back in is 10n2l.


may the horse be with you

[kitts]

An almost automatic is not betting horse whos won his last race in MCL. If he won MSW and is realistically placed max $32k claimer or OC$25k maybe

[JustRalph]

If he has a Q rating of over 65 in Jcapper............ you can start to find some first out against winners who have a good shot.........75 seems to be a sweet spot.......this is a short sample from the tracks I played last year


http://www.justralph.com/firstwinners_qrating.jpg