Keeneland Handle Off 19.2%

[Cangamble]

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090425/BUSINESS/904250342/1003/Handle+off+sharply+at+Keeneland

That is a huge drop off. Live attendance was up. But the signal was available everywhere.
This is discouraging to me, as a HANA member because of course, Keeneland is our number one rated track. Bettors didn't stay clear because of their takeout, that is for sure.
Is it the economy? Was last year just a real good year? Has ADW betting peaked? Is it the poly? I know we are talking about only a 15 day meet, and to be honest, I always found Keeneland to be a tough track to play, even before the poly, because you have horses coming from everywhere. Way too unpredictable.

My guess is the second quarter is going to be an ugly one for the industry which does next to nothing when it comes to growing its customer base.

[andymays]

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090425/BUSINESS/904250342/1003/Handle+off+sharply+at+Keeneland

That is a huge drop off. Live attendance was up. But the signal was available everywhere.
This is discouraging to me, as a HANA member because of course, Keeneland is our number one rated track. Bettors didn't stay clear because of their takeout, that is for sure.
Is it the economy? Was last year just a real good year? Has ADW betting peaked? Is it the poly? I know we are talking about only a 15 day meet, and to be honest, I always found Keeneland to be a tough track to play, even before the poly, because you have horses coming from everywhere. Way too unpredictable.

My guess is the second quarter is going to be an ugly one for the industry which does next to nothing when it comes to growing its customer base.

It's the surface!

[samyn on the green]

The Big-A wraps up today. Their numbers should be published in the next few days and should be a good comparison to the numbers produced by the synthetic tracks.

[toussaud]

IT'S THE SURFACE STUPID

(not calling anyone stupid, just using the old political catch phrase)

[hibiscus]

Agreed. The surface. I used to play Keeneland but have not wagered a cent there since the switch to the Poly-crap.

[Hajck Hillstrom]

...for $50.

Last spring I sent $3,272 through the Keeneland windows.

Maybe there are more like me than I thought....

[DeanT]

It is not the surface, because the same surface was used last spring when handle was 20% higher. Was field size down this spring as compared to last? Smaller fields have been plagueing KY tracks of late. TPX handle was off 25% or so this spring.

[DJofSD]

I'll follow the crowd on this one: it's the surface.

I'd hope some one will do a statistical analysis of the winning odds of SAX, KEE and any other AWS track and compare those numbers to AQU, GPX and any other real dirt surface.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

It is not the surface, because the same surface was used last spring when handle was 20% higher. Was field size down this spring as compared to last? Smaller fields have been plagueing KY tracks of late. TPX handle was off 25% or so this spring.

Huh???????

Keeneland Race Course on Monday released a full business report that revealed average all-sources handle at its 16-day spring meet was down 11 percent over the corresponding 2007 meet, while average ontrack handle was down nearly 6 percent despite an increase in average attendance of 6 percent.

Although the estimated gross all-sources handle of $150.45 million was the second highest in track history, behind only the $158.4 million handled last year, there was an additional day of racing this year at a meet that ran April 4-25 at the Lexington, Ky., track. Average all-sources handle was $9.4 million, down substantially from the nearly $10.6 million bet daily in 2007.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=94080&subs=0&arc=1

[DeanT]

Field size has shown the major correlation. An increase in 1.0 horses translates to a 10% change in handle. OPX field size was up by 0.5 horses and their handle was up 4%. GPX field size was up 0.5 horses and they increased handle by 5%. Conversely, Hawthorne lost field size appreciably this year and they will see a major reduction in handle, as Turfway saw this year. Hawthorne dirt, TPX poly: Same metrics when it comes to field size.

[DeanT]

Huh???????

Keeneland Race Course on Monday released a full business report that revealed average all-sources handle at its 16-day spring meet was down 11 percent over the corresponding 2007 meet, while average ontrack handle was down nearly 6 percent despite an increase in average attendance of 6 percent.

Although the estimated gross all-sources handle of $150.45 million was the second highest in track history, behind only the $158.4 million handled last year, there was an additional day of racing this year at a meet that ran April 4-25 at the Lexington, Ky., track. Average all-sources handle was $9.4 million, down substantially from the nearly $10.6 million bet daily in 2007.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=94080&subs=0&arc=1

That is why I am asking what the field size was. If it was down by 1-1.5 a 15-20% reduction is right in line with historical metrics.

[toussaud]

okay,


it's not ONE thing. it's not JUST the surfact, it's the Surfact + the economy being crap and the horse players out there that are still putting real cake through the window are going for what they know with the money they are spending.

The first thing you do when you cut back on your wagering is you stay with the bets that you know work at the tracks you know. When I am really in a slump the first thing I do is cut out exotics and go back to the tracks I feel the most comfortable with (Oaklawn, churchill and mountineer). I'm pretty sure this is what it is.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

That is why I am asking what the field size was. If it was down by 1-1.5 a 15-20% reduction is right in line with historical metrics.

Sorry, I got confused by your wording.

I thought you said spring 2008 was up 20%

[Imriledup]

Its the surface. Ask any big bettor who has stopped playing Keeneland and 9 out of 10 will tell you they can't bet big money on polycrap.


I've stopped Keeneland cold turkey, i don't even look at the PPs anymore, Keeneland is persona non grata to me.

[Imriledup]

It is not the surface, because the same surface was used last spring when handle was 20% higher. Was field size down this spring as compared to last? Smaller fields have been plagueing KY tracks of late. TPX handle was off 25% or so this spring.

It is the surface. Big bettors gave that track a shot, that's why handle was at normal levels. But, most players just got tired of the random factor and just stopped betting this place. I gave poly a shot at Del mar and keene and other places and it was no use, i left those meets feeling like i was a rank amateur. Those places made me feel like i didn't know the first thing about this game, that's a bad feeling when you've spend many years getting really GOOD at this game.

[JustRalph]

I stopped playing it too.......... up until a year ago.........I tried.....Lord Knows I tried....... :bang:

[toussaud]

I admit to watching the live feed becuase important horses often run there, but I haven't thought about making a bet there in 2 years.

[Cangamble]

I've got a poll up on my newest blog post. So far "polytrack" isn't the number one answer. But it is early still:
http://cangamble.blogspot.com/2009/04/chantal-sutherland-nudenot-yet.html

[horses721]

Agreed. The surface. I used to play Keeneland but have not wagered a cent there since the switch to the Poly-crap.

Same here. Get rid of the surface.

[The Hawk]

I'm another who virtually stopped playing there when they installed the Polytrack.

Seems like a consensus here.

[point given]

50 % economy

30 % poly

10 % field size

10 % other

[toussaud]

i think it's a combo of 1 and 2. there are no field size problems at keeneland

[DJofSD]

i think it's a combo of 1 and 2. there are no field size problems at keenelandRight. Which makes having the AWS so frustrating. While some prefer the smaller field sizes of SAX and HOL, I believe I get more value for my wagering dollar when I have large/full fields. KEE seemed to be doing better as far as field sizes go but with the AWS, I have to pass.

[andymays]

A few hours ago I had an exchange from an email I sent to Keenland. After the exchange Headlines on the Paulick report were:

WAS POLYTRACK MAJOR FACTOR IN DROP IN KEENELAND WAGERING?
By Ray Paulick

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/was-polytrack-major-factor-in-drop-in-keeneland-wagering/

Could be a coincedence but Jim Williams moved pretty fast. Here is my email pasted below! My words are my opinion of course. The article I pasted and sent to him was part of the email. I did delete my personal email info and his!

You have to read from the bottom up!

Thanks again for your additional comments. I will watch for the Aqueduct figures as suggested.

Jim Williams

________________________________________
From: Andy [mailto:onlyandy@]
Sent: Monday, April 27, 2009 10:32 AM
To: Jim Williams
Subject: RE: Comments

Mr. Williams thanks for responding. I obviously can’t stand synthetic surfaces and you should know that in a recent poll 65% of regular Horseplayers agree with me. This accounts for the handle trend on synthetic surfaces being down sharply compared to tracks like Oaklawn, Gulfstream, Fairgrounds, Monmouth, Hawthorne, and on and on. The only Tracks with dirt surfaces that I know are down sharply are in Maryland where Laurel was down 26% mainly because of increased takeout and quality of Racing. Aqueduct will come out today with their numbers and I am eager to see what they are. If you can provide me with numbers from popular Tracks that have shown the declines you are talking about I will take notice.

I like everything about Keenland except the synthetic surface and as in California the people who decided to install them are entrenched in the “synthetic ideology”. Horse Racing is about gambling and if not for gambling Horse Racing would be an equestrian event. Like the leadership in California it seems you will play this out till the bitter end and that’s a shame for Horse Racing.

Thanks,

Andy


Handle off sharply at Keeneland
Betting declines 19.3% despite large crowds
BY GREGORY A. HALL • GHALL@COURIER-JOURNAL.COM • APRIL 25, 2009
•
Keeneland Race Course in Lexington drew some of the largest crowds in its history this spring and also benefitted from its races being available on all major account-wagering platforms.
But those pluses weren't enough to offset sharp declines in betting during the thoroughbred track's 15-day meet.
Preliminary results showed a 19.3 percent drop in all sources handle to $117 million, with a 9.8 percent decline to $19.2 million in on-track handle for Keeneland's races.
Average daily on-track handle was $1,282,928, a 3.8 percent drop from last year's $1,333,106, when the track was open 16 days.
The total attendance of 240,755 was the third-highest in track history, down 1.1 percent from 243,606 last year. The 16,050 average daily crowd was up 5.4 percent from last year and was the second-highest in Keeneland history.
The meet saw two crowds of 30,000-plus, including the 33,680 on April 18 that was the second-largest in track history.
"We are very gratified by the great turnout from our fans," Nick Nicholson, Keeneland president and chief executive, said in a statement. "Three of the past four spring meets have been the best in Keeneland history, so this is a trend and not an aberration."
The meet was the first for Keeneland to be available on all four major national account-wagering platforms -- Churchill Downs' TwinSpires.com, TVG, XpressBet.com and Youbet.com.
Reporter Gregory A. Hall can be reached at (502) 582-4087.


From: Jim Williams [mailto:jwilliams]
Sent: Monday, April 27, 2009 6:16 AM
To: Onlyandy@
Cc: Betsy Baxter
Subject: Comments


Thank you for taking time to write, expressing dissatisfaction with synthetic surfaces. Actually, average daily mutuel handle at Keeneland this spring was off 9.6 percent, which is less than the 13 percent that wagering was down nationally in March. Average daily mutuel handle on track was up one percent. Keeneland raced one day less—15 compared to 16 days last year—which is 6.3 percent less racing. And, thankfully, no horses suffered catastrophic injuries during the meeting. Again, thank you for your comments.

Regards,
Jim Williams

[JeremyJet]

My head is spinning reading about all these "reasons" for the declines at tracks with synthetic surfaces.

As it's been stated here recently ....

It's the surface, Stupid!

JeremyJet

[andymays]

My head is spinning reading about all these "reasons" for the declines at tracks with synthetic surfaces.

As it's been stated here recently ....

It's the surface, Stupid!

JeremyJet

"It's the surface" is right on the money in my book too!

If you have a point and send these guys an email they read it and respond as long as you present your case in a clear manner and aren't too rude.

[JeremyJet]

"It's the surface" is right on the money in my book too!

If you have a point and send these guys an email they read it and respond as long as you present your case in a clear manner and aren't too rude.

I hear ya, Andy.

It's just too bad HANA didn't raise these issues. I could be wrong, but I don't think synthetic surfaces were even on HANA's radar when they began "handicapping" these tracks. It blows my mind how the surface issue wasn't one of their major sticking points.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[andymays]

I hear ya, Andy.

It's just too bad HANA didn't raise these issues. I could be wrong, but I don't think synthetic surfaces were even on HANA's radar when they began "handicapping" these tracks. It blows my mind how the surface issue wasn't one of their major sticking points.

Regards,

JeremyJet


I agree with you but HANA can't please us all. I agree with 90% of everthing so that's still OK by me. I have a feeling that next year the ratings might be figured differently. Horseplayers are definitely voting with their dollars.

[JeremyJet]

I agree with you but HANA can't please us all. I agree with 90% of everthing so that's still OK by me. I have a feeling that next year the ratings might be figured differently. Horseplayers are definitely voting with their dollars.

Once again we agree, Andy. But the surfaces issue is a major topic. The surfaces some of these tracks employ is the only reason the players are turning away. So what does it matter if they're doing everthing else right if the players go bye-bye because of the surface?

Regards,

JeremyJet

[1st time lasix]

Personnally I have evolved and adjusted my handicapping. I take very little from those here who merely refuse to learn and just throw up their hands. Tey use any opportunity to bash the use of it. All evidence suggests the poly type surface is safer to the animal particpants--- period. That is clear and rather indisputable unless you are just plane pig headed. Of course OJ was aquitted of a double murder.....so i no longer say anything is absolute. Choose to play or don't play. Never understood the angry venom like disgust at the product. I have also never found a great handicapper yet who can't view races from several different angles. I am also not necessarily convinced that poly creates more "random chaos" than various grass conditions or low level claiming races. Some of the forum make it difficult to see how on earth players ever adjust their handicapping from dirt to grass? To each his own i guess. I will always play Keeneland and support their product precisely because they are much more fan friendly with lower takeouts. On the other hand....I wouldn't make an 3 entry exotic play horizontally or vertically at say- calder or philly where i am surely considered a sucker by their onerous rakes. Game is tough enough without the track scooping 5-12% more out of the pools. Just my 2 cents. Four more of those denominations and I could play a super! Ha! ;)

[andymays]

My home tracks are in California so I still play them. The problem is the pace of the races. Particularly the Pro Ride at Santa Anita. Most of the Jocks have the brakes on early and are running up on heals in the first part of two turn races. The synthetic surface at Santa Anita produced close to 50% carryovers which is unheard of.

On dirt surface when I play pick 3's and 4's I would rarely spread much and would always play $5 to $30 and then go 1 by 2 by 2 by 2. On a synthetic surface it's $1 or $2 and I play 2 by 2 by 4 by 4 and sometimes more.

It's all going to come down to Horseplayers voting with their dollars and the market will dictate who survives!

[Charli125]

Once again we agree, Andy. But the surfaces issue is a major topic. The surfaces some of these tracks employ is the only reason the players are turning away. So what does it matter if they're doing everthing else right if the players go bye-bye because of the surface?

Regards,

JeremyJet

Dean already said this, but it bears repeating.

The thing is, the dropoff in hanle is based of of last year's numbers. Keeneland already had the new surface last year, so it shouldn't have had that much of an effect on handle.

Everyone can complain about the surface all they want(and I won't disagree), but the dropoff is post surface change.

[Bobzilla]

Of particular interest to me while reading Mr. Williams's response to Andy was the second to last sentence. It seemed to me that Mr. Williams wanted to take the opportunity to remind Andy as to why these AWSs were supposedly installed in the first place and appeal to Andy's conscience. The fact is we can all be thankful, for reasons that are self-evident, that there were no catastrophic injuries sustained by any horse competing over the course of the three week meet at Keeneland. Along those same lines many of us were equally thankful last summer when there were no catastrophic breakdowns on the Saratoga main track during the course of its six week meet, a fact that seemed to draw very little attention at the time. Saratoga, of course, is a traditional dirt surface.

Personally, I'll handicap a race on any surface as long as I think I might be able to find value. My own concerns about the proliferation of synthetic surfaces has nothing to do with their complexities as much as it has to do with preserving our dirt track heritage. I do think it's unfortunate that when those with concerns, such as Andy, take the time to communicate these concerns with industry officials that they can expect what amounts to a condescending admonition. Maybe I was reading too much between the lines but that's how it came across to me. This discussion can never seem to get anywhere when one side continues to piously perch themselves on a higher moral plane while devaluing the other side as nothing more than a collection of degenerate goons insensitive to the well-being of the horse and lacking the mental capacity and initiative required to learn something new.

[point given]

Let's not forget that keeneland has a vested interest in poly as well. So the safety issue is not as high a moral ground as they profess.

[andymays]

Of particular interest to me while reading Mr. Williams's response to Andy was the second to last sentence. It seemed to me that Mr. Williams wanted to take the opportunity to remind Andy as to why these AWSs were supposedly installed in the first place and appeal to Andy's conscience. The fact is we can all be thankful, for reasons that are self-evident, that there were no catastrophic injuries sustained by any horse competing over the course of the three week meet at Keeneland. Along those same lines many of us were equally thankful last summer when there were no catastrophic breakdowns on the Saratoga main track during the course of its six week meet, a fact that seemed to draw very little attention at the time. Saratoga, of course, is a traditional dirt surface.

Personally, I'll handicap a race on any surface as long as I think I might be able to find value. My own concerns about the proliferation of synthetic surfaces has nothing to do with their complexities as much as it has to do with preserving our dirt track heritage. I do think it's unfortunate that when those with concerns, such as Andy, take the time to communicate these concerns with industry officials that they can expect what amounts to a condescending admonition. Maybe I was reading too much between the lines but that's how it came across to me. This discussion can never seem to get anywhere when one side continues to piously perch themselves on a higher moral plane while devaluing the other side as nothing more than a collection of degenerate goons insensitive to the well-being of the horse and lacking the mental capacity and initiative required to learn something new.


I think your instincts are dead on when reading into Mr. Williams comments. When Del Mar installed their synthetic surface and anyone spoke out against it they were labeled "Horse Haters" and told that they didn't care if children were traumatized if they saw a breakdown at the Races on a dirt surface. Bob Baffert was villified to no end when he spoke out against synthetic surfaces and he was almost run out of town.

The trend in our society seems to be that it's not enough to disagree you have to destroy the people you disagree with through personal attacks and inuendo. That's part of the reason I am so against synthetic surfaces for racing (not training). There are still injuries and breakdowns on sythetic surfaces (maybe a little less), but the Horseplayer is not served well by these surfaces. When faced with the fact that synthetic surfaces were not what we were sold in the infomercial they just won't concede an inch in the debate. In my opinion they produce a more inconsistent past performance because they can change drastically from day to day and hour to hour. Heck they even change when a cloud passes over and the temperature changes 7 degrees!

That brings me back to Del Mar and last year they decided to water after the second race. In the third race after they watered more horses went wire to wire than in the other races especially the first race. Joe Harper was interviewed and said they keep a thermometer in the surface and constantly monitor the temperature. Oh that makes me feel confident in the surface!

Anyway I have to give Mr. Williams credit for answering and he was very polite and probably a very nice man. My criticism of his surface had to piss him off so hats off to him for responding.

[lamboguy]

do you think odds changes have anything to do with this problem?

do you think people like to bet horses that leave the gate @ 4-1 and pay $6.40 when you greet the cashier?

or maybe you even like it better when an exacta drops from $900 in the winners circle to just under a tax ticket when the cashier greets you?

of course we all know why this happens, its the SIMULCAST MONEY every single time. those guys down at the simulcast outlets are alot smarted than those kentucky guys!

[Cangamble]

do you think odds changes have anything to do with this problem?

do you think people like to bet horses that leave the gate @ 4-1 and pay $6.40 when you greet the cashier?

or maybe you even like it better when an exacta drops from $900 in the winners circle to just under a tax ticket when the cashier greets you?

of course we all know why this happens, its the SIMULCAST MONEY every single time. those guys down at the simulcast outlets are alot smarted than those kentucky guys!
Computer programs set to bet with a half a minute to post by big bettors are probably a very big reason, as they have to wait until the last possible moment to see if they are getting a overlay.
Too many on the same horse can cause an underlay by the time all bets are in.

[DJofSD]

The thing is, the dropoff in hanle is based of of last year's numbers. Keeneland already had the new surface last year, so it shouldn't have had that much of an effect on handle.
Yes, and, if I played KEE last year then decided to not play it this year, my lack of participation would be a part of the drop. So don't jump to a partially invalid conclusion.

[Imriledup]

Keeneland will never admit that the decline in handle has to do with Polytrack.

What a bunch of jokers. They spent millions of dollars to install a surface that horseplayers didn't want.

The players who said they don't care are not winning either. I know you all like to play devils advocate, but you are not winning more money with polytrack. You are either staying the same, or getting worse.

If you can show me a player who was a winning long run player on dirt who is now winning MORE on polytrack, i'll show you 10 who are not.

The only way you can win in the long run as a horseplayer is to be able to really predict the pace of the races with a strong degree of accuracy. You can't just blindly bet on horses who are going to be pace compromised and be a long run winner.

The margin of profit is so thin, that you can't have a few more races Per 100 that you are totally confused about the pace scenario. Most of these races at keeneland and Del Mar are so competitive, so evenly matched, that if you have no idea how fast the pace is going to be, you have to idea whether you should bet a speed horse or a closer. If you see 3 speeds on paper on a dirt track, you know they are going to be going gangbusters. You can actually handicap the race. On polytrack, 2 of those jocks grab hard and one of them gets loose and the entire complexion of the race changes, and not for the 'bettor'. First of all, you don't know which 2 jocks are going to 'grab' and you don't even know IF they'll grab. So, you are left having absolutely no idea how the race is going to shape up. Once in a while you will be right, but you are going to be wrong too often to turn a long run profit.

The inability to predict rider intent on Polytrack is the difference between winning and losing. (not to mention how tricky the surface is anyway even excluding jockey strategy).

Losing tons of money on closers is the fastest way to the poorhouse when you predict speed duels that never develop.

[Bruddah]

Of particular interest to me while reading Mr. Williams's response to Andy was the second to last sentence. It seemed to me that Mr. Williams wanted to take the opportunity to remind Andy as to why these AWSs were supposedly installed in the first place and appeal to Andy's conscience. The fact is we can all be thankful, for reasons that are self-evident, that there were no catastrophic injuries sustained by any horse competing over the course of the three week meet at Keeneland. Along those same lines many of us were equally thankful last summer when there were no catastrophic breakdowns on the Saratoga main track during the course of its six week meet, a fact that seemed to draw very little attention at the time. Saratoga, of course, is a traditional dirt surface.

Personally, I'll handicap a race on any surface as long as I think I might be able to find value. My own concerns about the proliferation of synthetic surfaces has nothing to do with their complexities as much as it has to do with preserving our dirt track heritage. I do think it's unfortunate that when those with concerns, such as Andy, take the time to communicate these concerns with industry officials that they can expect what amounts to a condescending admonition. Maybe I was reading too much between the lines but that's how it came across to me. This discussion can never seem to get anywhere when one side continues to piously perch themselves on a higher moral plane while devaluing the other side as nothing more than a collection of degenerate goons insensitive to the well-being of the horse and lacking the mental capacity and initiative required to learn something new.

Bob, your piece was well said, written and gets a Big Amen BRUDDAH! Be careful, their are some who will say you are a Bigot. Biggoted against what, you ask? I don't know. But, you will have an opposite opinion of what their little minds hold as truths. Therefore, you are the Bigot.

Thanks for expressing (better than I) my Bigotry. :D

[DeanT]

These debates are certainly interesting. When change happens to us as horseplayers we do not like it, and never have really. I took a completely different look when these surfaces came in though, namely if I want to play racing I have to try and learn them. Why? Because they are going to be a part of racing forever.

European horseplayers embrace all weather, as they do turf racing, and I believe that there is a way to work these tracks into ones repitoire as many here have mentioned: CJ, Jeff, Dave S and others. I know people might not want to hear this opinion, but here goes: Keeneland this meet was about as fair as any track I have played for the last twelve months. If people did not take the time to give it a shot, use the polycapping database and try and model the track and the trainers, they were missing out on some good betting opps, in my opinion.

I hate to post things anymore because everytime I do someone thinks it is a HANA post. This is just me as a player. I blew my brains out the first poly meet at KEE a couple of years ago and was swearing at it just like everyone else. I blamed all my defeats on the surface. But once I started doing some due diligence the track was not this engima. I found it was me. Ever since last year I have had good meets betting there, and every time it shuts down I wish it had not. It is a super place to play racing.

Please do not jump on me because you disagree. It is just my opinion as a horseplayer. I believe we have to be open minded in racing. I am of the opine that if horses race on jello I might not like it, but I would try to model the jello and find some overlaid winners. It is just the way I am as a horseplayer I guess - stubborn.

[Charli125]

Yes, and, if I played KEE last year then decided to not play it this year, my lack of participation would be a part of the drop. So don't jump to a partially invalid conclusion.

So you're saying that someone might play a meet on an entirely unknown surface the first year it's offered, and then decide not to play on the same surface the next year. Sorry, but that makes no sense to me.

If anything, a new surface creates a learning curve, and the amount of handle should increase as handicappers become familiar with the surface. If you invested last year, but not this year, then you really can't blame the surface.

That's just my 2 cents, but I think a lot of players are using the surface as an excuse. (I'm not saying I did any good at KEE myself this year, I did terrible)

[Imriledup]

So you're saying that someone might play a meet on an entirely unknown surface the first year it's offered, and then decide not to play on the same surface the next year. Sorry, but that makes no sense to me.

If anything, a new surface creates a learning curve, and the amount of handle should increase as handicappers become familiar with the surface. If you invested last year, but not this year, then you really can't blame the surface.

That's just my 2 cents, but I think a lot of players are using the surface as an excuse. (I'm not saying I did any good at KEE myself this year, I did terrible)

I think a lot of players have the attitude "why should i HAVE To learn a new surface?"

If every surface in America was poly or Synth, than you would be forced to learn. As it stands now, you are not forced to learn anything, you can bet dirt if you want to and you won't have to waste your time relearning how to ride a bike again.

[Charli125]

I think a lot of players have the attitude "why should i HAVE To learn a new surface?"

That's a good point, and I agree.

[DJofSD]

So you're saying that someone might play a meet on an entirely unknown surface the first year it's offered, and then decide not to play on the same surface the next year. Sorry, but that makes no sense to me.

If anything, a new surface creates a learning curve, and the amount of handle should increase as handicappers become familiar with the surface. If you invested last year, but not this year, then you really can't blame the surface.

That's just my 2 cents, but I think a lot of players are using the surface as an excuse. (I'm not saying I did any good at KEE myself this year, I did terrible)
No, it was not an unknown surface. And, no, I am not blaming the surface.

Given a preference, I'd have regular old dirt. But as has been stated, AWS is not going to go away, so, I'll pick my spots. And so I've choosen not to play the main track at KEE. Is that a condemnation of AWS? Perhaps. However, I am looking forward to DMR especially if it is the DMR surface of 2008 and not the surface of 2007.

I've always played turf and have found that for the amount of time I have available for handicapping, turf races offers more. I understand racing and pace when it comes to the green stuff. For the AWS at KEE, I found I did not understand it very well. For those that do or find other more traditional approaches to handicapping KEE, that's great. For myself, well, I just try to remember what Dirty Harry says: a man has got to know his limitations.

There is a learning curve for AWS. Perhaps the decline in the handle means a majority of bettors are not very high up the curve.

[samyn on the green]

Good post, the truth of the matter is that someone is winning there and if they are ahead of the learning curve they are winning big. These debates are certainly interesting. When change happens to us as horseplayers we do not like it, and never have really. I took a completely different look when these surfaces came in though, namely if I want to play racing I have to try and learn them. Why? Because they are going to be a part of racing forever.

European horseplayers embrace all weather, as they do turf racing, and I believe that there is a way to work these tracks into ones repitoire as many here have mentioned: CJ, Jeff, Dave S and others. I know people might not want to hear this opinion, but here goes: Keeneland this meet was about as fair as any track I have played for the last twelve months. If people did not take the time to give it a shot, use the polycapping database and try and model the track and the trainers, they were missing out on some good betting opps, in my opinion.

I hate to post things anymore because everytime I do someone thinks it is a HANA post. This is just me as a player. I blew my brains out the first poly meet at KEE a couple of years ago and was swearing at it just like everyone else. I blamed all my defeats on the surface. But once I started doing some due diligence the track was not this engima. I found it was me. Ever since last year I have had good meets betting there, and every time it shuts down I wish it had not. It is a super place to play racing.

Please do not jump on me because you disagree. It is just my opinion as a horseplayer. I believe we have to be open minded in racing. I am of the opine that if horses race on jello I might not like it, but I would try to model the jello and find some overlaid winners. It is just the way I am as a horseplayer I guess - stubborn.

[andymays]

In Europe the Horses with the least class and ability race on synthetic. Why do we want to copy a second race surface for second rate horses?

An not to be a smart ass but why don't we put synthetic in to replace the turf courses as well? We could color it green and then we wont have to move the rails around and if it rains we don't have to take it off the turf. Heck synthetic plays more like turf anyway especially when it's slow.

When we had turf and dirt we had two distinct and wonderful surfaces!

Bob Baffert was quotes as saying that (something like this) synthetic makes good Horses mediocre and it makes bad horse mediocre.

That's why you have photo finishes in most synthetic races. The close finishes produce more pissed off Horseplayers like me!

[DJofSD]

That's why you have photo finishes in most synthetic races. Now that is something I've never heard before. Is that just rhetoric or is there some element of truth to that statement?

[andymays]

Now that is something I've never heard before. Is that just rhetoric or is there some element of truth to that statement?


I believe that the beaten lengths thing is much tighter in synthetic races!

[OTM Al]

I will watch for the Aqueduct figures as suggested.


Down about 10% are the early returns.

[andymays]

Down about 10% are the early returns.

I don't like that number but the truth is the truth.

[Bruddah]

I believe that the beaten lengths thing is much tighter in synthetic races!

I agree. The first part of a synthetic race is jockeying for position. The last 3/8ths is about the running. The difference between good and bad horse times in sprinting 3/8ths is very little, thus closer and more photo finishes.

As for me, I don't like 3/8th sprints to the wire. (JMHO)

[andymays]

I agree. The first part of a synthetic race is jockeying for position. The last 3/8ths is about the running. The difference between good and bad horse times in sprinting 3/8ths is very little, thus closer and more photo finishes.

As for me, I don't like 3/8th sprints to the wire. (JMHO)


Might as well have a quarter horse race!

[cj]

Might as well have a quarter horse race!

If that was all there was to it, sprinters would stretch out and win with great consistency. Seeing how they don't, I'll think it runs a little deeper.

[andymays]

If that was all there was to it, sprinters would stretch out and win with great consistency. Seeing how they don't, I'll think it runs a little deeper.


I agree with you. I was being a smart ass!

[dartman51]

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090425/BUSINESS/904250342/1003/Handle+off+sharply+at+Keeneland

That is a huge drop off. Live attendance was up. But the signal was available everywhere.
This is discouraging to me, as a HANA member because of course, Keeneland is our number one rated track. Bettors didn't stay clear because of their takeout, that is for sure.
Is it the economy? Was last year just a real good year? Has ADW betting peaked? Is it the poly? I know we are talking about only a 15 day meet, and to be honest, I always found Keeneland to be a tough track to play, even before the poly, because you have horses coming from everywhere. Way too unpredictable.

My guess is the second quarter is going to be an ugly one for the industry which does next to nothing when it comes to growing its customer base.

GEE, surely no one would be foolish enough to THINK that the economy MIGHT have had something to do with it. It's pretty reckless to be betting on the ponies when you are struggling to make ends meet. I turned 60 in December and lost my job in the housing industry in January. It's the first time in my adult life that I've been unemployed for longer than 2 weeks. I have only made a handful of bets since January, and I only made them because my account with Twin Spires is in good shape. I find myself being much more selective in my wagers, which is a good thing. I know there's a number of people that don't like the surface, and to those people I would say, you better learn to adapt, because I believe that in 10 years, ALL the major tracks will be synthetic surfaces. I know this will probably be an unpopular post, but that's OK. It won't be the first , nor will it be the last, so fire away.

[dartman51]

Personnally I have evolved and adjusted my handicapping. I take very little from those here who merely refuse to learn and just throw up their hands. Tey use any opportunity to bash the use of it. All evidence suggests the poly type surface is safer to the animal particpants--- period. That is clear and rather indisputable unless you are just plane pig headed. Of course OJ was aquitted of a double murder.....so i no longer say anything is absolute. Choose to play or don't play. Never understood the angry venom like disgust at the product. I have also never found a great handicapper yet who can't view races from several different angles. I am also not necessarily convinced that poly creates more "random chaos" than various grass conditions or low level claiming races. Some of the forum make it difficult to see how on earth players ever adjust their handicapping from dirt to grass? To each his own i guess. I will always play Keeneland and support their product precisely because they are much more fan friendly with lower takeouts. On the other hand....I wouldn't make an 3 entry exotic play horizontally or vertically at say- calder or philly where i am surely considered a sucker by their onerous rakes. Game is tough enough without the track scooping 5-12% more out of the pools. Just my 2 cents. Four more of those denominations and I could play a super! Ha! ;)

Well said 1st Time, I agree completely. Those that don't learn to adjust, will be left behind.

[toussaud]

the point is, why SHOULD we change our handicapping. it's not a matter of can we or can't we, why should we? what is the incentive to change the way you handicap a race, when there are 30 other dirt tracks in the country? I like kurt Becker as much as the next guy but keeneland is not that important.

every bettor has 2-3 tracks they usually play on a daily basis. Keeneland is losing tht fight to be in the top 2-3

[andymays]

Well said 1st Time, I agree completely. Those that don't learn to adjust, will be left behind.


Or those that don't like it don't play it!

[toussaud]

Well said 1st Time, I agree completely. Those that don't learn to adjust, will be left behind.

actually those who don't adjust just play dirt tracks.

[dartman51]

the point is, why SHOULD we change our handicapping. it's not a matter of can we or can't we, why should we? what is the incentive to change the way you handicap a race, when there are 30 other dirt tracks in the country? I like kurt Becker as much as the next guy but keeneland is not that important.

every bettor has 2-3 tracks they usually play on a daily basis. Keeneland is losing tht fight to be in the top 2-3

While I respect your opinion, and your views, my question to you is ,why not?? If you can learn SOMETHING that will help you put some of these big payoffs in your pocket, why not. And they do still run turf races there. :)

[toussaud]

While I respect your opinion, and your views, my question to you is ,why not?? If you can learn SOMETHING that will help you put some of these big payoffs in your pocket, why not. And they do still run turf races there. :)

Bec uase I don't gamble for the sake of it or for charity. I don't owe keeneland, santa anita, hollywood park or presque isle anything.


the whole point is to "compete" for your business, what keeneland/santa anita/hollywood par, is trying to do is to shame you into business..."well why can't you learn something new, you sould be open to new things"

No thanks, i"ll just continue playing what i know and what I like.

[DeanT]

the point is, why SHOULD we change our handicapping. it's not a matter of can we or can't we, why should we? what is the incentive to change the way you handicap a race, when there are 30 other dirt tracks in the country?

Don't you change your handicapping on dirt as well though? I do, quite a bit. Hawthorne started speedy, then went to late. Philly Park this meet was solid to late pace/stamina horses and then for about three weeks was a speedway. Mountaineer's bias tends to change twice a week this meet. I did not find Keeneland changed that much this meet at all. Santa Anita had a stretch which played to late, but really, it did not change much either, imo.

[andymays]

I don't think the surface matters for 80% to 90% of Horseplayers.

I also don't know anyone who does it for a living that does better on synthetic surfaces!

[toussaud]

Don't you change your handicapping on dirt as well though? I do, quite a bit. Hawthorne started speedy, then went to late. Philly Park this meet was solid to late pace/stamina horses and then for about three weeks was a speedway. Mountaineer's bias tends to change twice a week this meet. I did not find Keeneland changed that much this meet at all. Santa Anita had a stretch which played to late, but really, it did not change much either, imo.


I am not really a bias person. not that I don't believe in them, but i figure that's too big a can of worms for me to factor in

No what I dispise the unhandicappable. Meaning, the horse that has been running at churchill/oaklawn for the last 2 years and has never seen a turf track and gets to keeneland and that turf sire 2 generatoins back in a horses pedigree jumps up and makes a horse that would not have a c hanbge look like a freak on polytrack. the stuff you can't handicap for.

I like dirt becuase dirt horses like dirt. turf hores like turf.

what i hate and will not handicap is horses that hop scotch from one sutract to another. I won't touch the illionis circut for this reason. horses coing off a 7 month layoff to win going away, horses coming off off the board months at hawthore to jup up and look like a grade 1 winner first out.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Don't you change your handicapping on dirt as well though? I do, quite a bit. Hawthorne started speedy, then went to late. Philly Park this meet was solid to late pace/stamina horses and then for about three weeks was a speedway. Mountaineer's bias tends to change twice a week this meet. I did not find Keeneland changed that much this meet at all. Santa Anita had a stretch which played to late, but really, it did not change much either, imo.

What amazes me is how very few can see that racing on polycrap = jockey racing instead of horse racing.

Jockey strategy on polycrap is such a big factor that in a lot of races, it becomes the sole reason for the outcome.

I like betting on horses, not humans.

[DeanT]

Jockey strategy on polycrap is such a big factor that in a lot of races, it becomes the sole reason for the outcome.

I agree. Very good point. Some guys really know how to ride those tracks; and some don't.

[BillW]

I agree. Very good point. Some guys really know how to ride those tracks; and some don't.

Kinda like turf racing.

[Imriledup]

What amazes me is how very few can see that racing on polycrap = jockey racing instead of horse racing.

Jockey strategy on polycrap is such a big factor that in a lot of races, it becomes the sole reason for the outcome.

I like betting on horses, not humans.

Totally agree.

[slewis]

It seems like the jury is no longer out....

The consensus and evidence is quite overwhelming... Bettors prefer dirt and turf compared to rubber and carpet....

Good.. Im glad the majority of bettors sees it this way....


Now Mr. Phipps and Mr. Janney and legislators in Calimexico.....

Let's install more tracks with polytrack and really get rid of the remaining bettors...

We'll bribe the politicians to install slots at every track.... and we'll rule the world!!!!! Well, the racing world anyway.....

[affirmedny]

http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20090425/BUSINESS/904250342/1003/Handle+off+sharply+at+Keeneland

That is a huge drop off. Live attendance was up. But the signal was available everywhere.
This is discouraging to me, as a HANA member because of course, Keeneland is our number one rated track. Bettors didn't stay clear because of their takeout, that is for sure.
Is it the economy? Was last year just a real good year? Has ADW betting peaked? Is it the poly? I know we are talking about only a 15 day meet, and to be honest, I always found Keeneland to be a tough track to play, even before the poly, because you have horses coming from everywhere. Way too unpredictable.

My guess is the second quarter is going to be an ugly one for the industry which does next to nothing when it comes to growing its customer base.

Is anybody factoring in there was one less entire day of racing this year? Wouldn't that be a significant percentage of handle in a short meet like this? I'm no fan of the poly, but let's be fair.

[toussaud]

Is anybody factoring in there was one less entire day of racing this year? Wouldn't that be a significant percentage of handle in a short meet like this? I'm no fan of the poly, but let's be fair.sush

[toussaud]

the very first race at arlington proves my point. horse goes off at a deserved 33 to 1, hasn't been within 10 lengths in the last 4 and wires the damn field on the track. the unhadicappable.