funkydj
04-26-2009, 12:03 PM
www.winatthehorses.com (http://www.winatthehorses.com/)
JOE KELLEY HANDICAPS AQUEDUCT APRIL 26th, 2009
RACE 1: PASS on this race. The top two morning line faves look legit and we see no value here.
RACE 2: PASS. The favored entry is tough.
RACE 3: PASS. Small field and no overlays in sight. Be patient as we have some solid plays soon.
RACE 4: PASS. Once again, the two morning line faves look tough and no need to stretch into playing something just to be in the action.
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RACE 5: Let's get ready for a potential overlay. # 2 HERALD SQUARE returns from nearly winning last out in the slop which she loves. Today is dry but we are willing give benefit of the doubt as the horse posted career best pace figures at first two calls in last race. Must use in all your exotics as the horse loves to finish in the money. Eibar taking mount is encouraging.
PLAY: Win/place/show on # 2 at 7/2 and higher.
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RACE 6: I was watching a PBS Special last night on the Philadelphia Sound. The O'Jays were onstage singing "People Get Ready". And this next race is one of those where this is such a false fave and somehow we gots to make some hay here. # 3 SMALL POTATOES is 1 for 28 on the turf and is the ML fave at 5/2. So, where do we turn. # 1 SAGE THE RAGE has a young sire Roaring Fever who gets 20% winners on turf. No small potatoes on that stat. # 5 CARLYN DARLYN putzed thru dirt races all winter and has been set to return for a second try on the weeds. Bernard Callajas specializes in turf races with a +1.29 ROI and a 15% winning %.
PLAY: Win bets on # 1 and # 5 at 4/1 and up.
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RACE 7: Nice state-bred stakes and another tilt where we are skeptical about a favorite. # 3 WISHFUL TOMCAT has won a G3 before and this race is a step down which does not suit us well. # 4 TOMASSI is coming off a layoff and could repeat that feat of winning two years ago off a rest at a mile and an eighth. Should be closing fast. # 2 DR. D.F.C. is a consistent horse who always gives it a good try and sometimes comes away with a win in these state-bred stakes races.
PLAY: Win bet on # 4 and # 2 at 5/1 and up. Exacta key box # 1 with # 2, 4.
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RACE 8: PASS . No big opinions here and best to rest up if you feel that way.
RACE 9: PASS. The morning line faves have cracks. But the rest of the competition is very questionable. Only horse we have slight upset interest is the # 8 THIN DISGUISE where Albertraini is 19% with second time training. Mott was initial trainer and not sure why there was a change. Dominguez sticks. Maybe they are hoping for an off-turf scenario as the filly ran well on a wet track last out. On the turf, we have our doubts.
JOE KELLEY HANDICAPS AQUEDUCT APRIL 26th, 2009
RACE 1: PASS on this race. The top two morning line faves look legit and we see no value here.
RACE 2: PASS. The favored entry is tough.
RACE 3: PASS. Small field and no overlays in sight. Be patient as we have some solid plays soon.
RACE 4: PASS. Once again, the two morning line faves look tough and no need to stretch into playing something just to be in the action.
___________
RACE 5: Let's get ready for a potential overlay. # 2 HERALD SQUARE returns from nearly winning last out in the slop which she loves. Today is dry but we are willing give benefit of the doubt as the horse posted career best pace figures at first two calls in last race. Must use in all your exotics as the horse loves to finish in the money. Eibar taking mount is encouraging.
PLAY: Win/place/show on # 2 at 7/2 and higher.
________
RACE 6: I was watching a PBS Special last night on the Philadelphia Sound. The O'Jays were onstage singing "People Get Ready". And this next race is one of those where this is such a false fave and somehow we gots to make some hay here. # 3 SMALL POTATOES is 1 for 28 on the turf and is the ML fave at 5/2. So, where do we turn. # 1 SAGE THE RAGE has a young sire Roaring Fever who gets 20% winners on turf. No small potatoes on that stat. # 5 CARLYN DARLYN putzed thru dirt races all winter and has been set to return for a second try on the weeds. Bernard Callajas specializes in turf races with a +1.29 ROI and a 15% winning %.
PLAY: Win bets on # 1 and # 5 at 4/1 and up.
__________________
RACE 7: Nice state-bred stakes and another tilt where we are skeptical about a favorite. # 3 WISHFUL TOMCAT has won a G3 before and this race is a step down which does not suit us well. # 4 TOMASSI is coming off a layoff and could repeat that feat of winning two years ago off a rest at a mile and an eighth. Should be closing fast. # 2 DR. D.F.C. is a consistent horse who always gives it a good try and sometimes comes away with a win in these state-bred stakes races.
PLAY: Win bet on # 4 and # 2 at 5/1 and up. Exacta key box # 1 with # 2, 4.
______________________
RACE 8: PASS . No big opinions here and best to rest up if you feel that way.
RACE 9: PASS. The morning line faves have cracks. But the rest of the competition is very questionable. Only horse we have slight upset interest is the # 8 THIN DISGUISE where Albertraini is 19% with second time training. Mott was initial trainer and not sure why there was a change. Dominguez sticks. Maybe they are hoping for an off-turf scenario as the filly ran well on a wet track last out. On the turf, we have our doubts.