I can't believe I'm writing this post

[Kentucky Bred]

BETTING ON THE MORNING LINE


I'm strictly a spot player. I look for certain race profiles that occur throughout the country on a daily basis. Usually pace related. I only bet them when the price is right and for me that means going after horses that are at least 6-1 or more. $20-$40 mutuals are the key.

I have always believed that, if you can, wait as long as you can right up to posttime to make your wager. After all, the data/information you are using to decide on your play is the very latest and therefore the most accurate. I still believe this.

However, I have one problem...ME!

This website isn't big enough to hold all of the stories of how I found a way to screw up the betting of this longshot and that longshot. Last minute decisions to not play a winner because my odds started to go down or up or sideways. Or the computer locks up 2 minutes to post. One time Suffolk Downs ran a race 50 minutes before their designated posttime. I missed that winner too! (I felt like Sufferindowns on that day...for sure) Constant decisions to play or not to play based upon last minute action or odds swings. Looking over my plays, even with a healthy ROI, I realized how much money I was leaving on the table because of me!

So, I did a study of my selections based upon the morning line. And you know what? They were still very profitable. Not as much but when I looked at all the plays I screwed up, I would have made much more money.

Last weekend, I alerted on a play at Praire Meadows. This horse was 15-1 on the morning line and was a clear play for me. I watched the odds steadily go up past 40-1 and I said..."too high for me". Yea, the profits from this $90+ horse would have been nice, but the ego of hitting the highest mutual of my life would have meant much more. Same thing this meeting at OP with a $88 horse that I just got scared off of. "What was the public seeing that I'm not seeing. Well, I think I'll just watch this one."

I have now converted. For what I do, I find that horses with an 8-1 morning line have the most consistent chance of being a price. 6-1's often get bet down too far. I have read that 20-1 ML horses have a very low win % so I avoid those. Everything in the middle is fair game. If I catch the race on TVG, that's great. If I'm out and about, no problem. The one catch is I have to at least see the scratches before playing to make sure that the race hasn't changed too much.

Well, I've said it. I've decided to bet based upon inferior information because I can't control myself to do the right thing. I'm sure I'm not the only one out there with these issues. I'll report back in a month or two with a progress report.

Kentucky Bred

[anotherdave]

Interesting post. I know exactly what you are talking about. I am using the morning line too. At least I project what I think the crowd will do. (adjust the morning line a bit usually). I did a study on my top two selections over a whole year and found that if I used the morning line as a basis I would do just as well as if I knew (unrealistically) the post time odds to make my decision. And the stress of trying to bet with a minute left and the constant changes of odds was getting to me. That isn't the situation to make a good disciplined wager.

So now I make all my bets before the first race. Yeah, there will be the odd one that irritates me, but a few come in as a nice surprise too. The kind of bets you like (6-1 and up) are the exact kind of bets you know that I know I'd be making for sure. If I've got a horse that is my first choice and 10-1 on the morning line(and likely the real odds), is there any reason to sit by the computer waiting for the last odds change? Not for me. Just bet it. If there is a race where I am confused about whether I'll have good enough odds, I will hold off on betting that one and take a look at the odds with 10 minutes to post, but most of the time I'm pretty good at predicting what the crowd will do. And with a family and other responsibilities I can't sit by the computer for 5 or 6 hours in a row. And as a bonus I don't make the lack of discipline mistakes I used to make.

AD

[Fastracehorse]

< I have read that 20-1 M/L horses have a very low win % so I avoid those.

KB - this is not meant to be an insult but this statement doesn't make sense to me. Of course these types have a low win % but for me that is not the point. If you are a good handicapper, and it sounds like you are very good - if a 20-1 M/L is your top pick, I would assume it is a contender.

So, 20-1 M/L contenders are probably a profitable bet for you.

Of course they are rare, but they occur often enough that they are very important horses, at least for me.

I posted a 58-1 horse as my top pick that won this past SA meet. I select contenders, and, this one made sense. That really, really helps the bankroll. If I said I had one at Gulfstream too that would be red boarding - so I didn't have one at 50-1 at GP this year. 5 months into the year - are there any more??

My point being, you are a skillful player - why let the M/L tell you how skillful you are - you tell the M/L!

:) :) :) :( :eek: :cool: :cool:

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

< Yeah, there will be the odd one that irritates me, but a few come in as a nice surprise too.

You have a great attitude and hence, you save yourself alot of mental anguish. Because, this game will get to you if you let it.

fffastt

[Kentucky Bred]

...for your well thought out postings. I really thought long and hard about this.

Fffastt--I don't mean that I don't like to play 20-1 shots...I love them. I had read somewhere that the number of winners that were 20-1 on the ML was unbelievably small. So, since I am not waiting for the odds to go up and up just before post, I really avoid a ton of absolute poor horses by avoiding the 20-1's on the ML. That means for me 8-1, 10-1, 12-1 and 15-1's generally on most ML's. That $90+ horse was a 15-1 that got lost in the crowd. Just curious if you remember what the ML was on your $58 horse.

The thing that scared me the most about going to this is because I considered the ML to be somewhat hypothetical. It is not real. And it changes from track to track based upon the track handicapper which is often the announcer. I would expect some consistency from major tracks but who makes the line at Prairie Meadows? or Delta Downs? That is what scared me.

Dave's point got me thinking. Maybe I should spend a bit more time analyzing and predicting how the public will bet. I could include some 6-1's that I do not thing the public will like and I could include some 20-1's that really do have a shot at a price and I think will provide value. Thanks again for taking my musings seriously.

Kentucky Bred

[sq764]

I think most morning lines are terrible anyway. I know the bigger tracks have pretty decent ML's, but for the most part, the smaller tracks are awful. I have honestly seen 15/1 ML horses that should be the favorite and end up being the favorite and win like a favorite..

Makes me wonder what the hell these ML makers are watching..if anything..

[penguinfan]

Originally posted by sq764

Makes me wonder what the hell these ML makers are watching..if anything..



LMAO

[Fastracehorse]

..........the M/L on that horse but like you said, he got lost on the crowd - so he wasn't really a 58-1 shot.

But what if the M/L 20-1 was a contender of yours?? - :) :)

Great post.

fffastt

[Kentucky Bred]

Fffastt--After reading your posts, I am including the 20-1's. You are right. Stop being a chicken.

Buttt...I won't bet the 30-1's at Keeneland...not ever...not ever!

I still have my pride. LOL

Kentucky Bred

[Fastracehorse]

I would never tell you how to bet - I have my own problems :p :p

However, your skillful - even 30-1 skillful.

fffastt

[Holy Bull]

My thinking would be if you are just using the morning line as your only source of odds, you might as well just not look at odds at all and just make your plays based on historical data. As others have alluded to, I've seen many tracks where they might as well just have a random number generator create a morning line instead of a person.

The way I handled the original problem is to reverse the whole process. Instead of generating picks, and then sitting around waiting to consult the tote board all day to see if the odds are there, and often times making mistakes, I just have a program scan the tote boards for the tracks I follow and when a race hits close to post time, have it consult my database/picks program

[hurrikane]

Good thread.

the MLO is really track dependant. If you check 20+ -1 shots at NY you will find rarely do any win. Not profitable.
At lesser tracks and esp the minor tracks it is very common.

I handle the the problem like this. I base my research on MLO. So I bet MLO. I could get a little better results with off odds but I don't have the time or inclination to sit and watch 15 tracks all day.

My results are close to what my research shows. And that is what I want..

[sq764]

...you handicapped each card with no morning line odds at all..

Would it be:

1) Easier to handicap
2) Harder
3) Make no difference

[anotherdave]

I do handicap each card with no morning line odds. I use the "hide M/L odds" setting on Bris custom Custom PP. Then I pick my top 2 choices in each race and give them what I'd consider fair odds. Then I check the morning line odds after to compare. I find that having the morning line odds on the form consciously or unconsciously affects my handicapping so I don't look at them until after the selection is made.

AD

[sjk]

Holy Bull,

I play a lot of tracks and visually scan the odds boards to know when to make a betting decision. I miss some plays. What do you use to scan the odds boards to make your plays?

[Holy Bull]

sjk:

I write my own software for tote board watching and automated betting.

[Dave Schwartz]

Kentucky Bred,

As a database handicapper, permit me to put forth another possibility.

M/L is just another factor, albeit a factor that is typically in line with the final odds to one degree or another.

Why not search for a factor (or two) that typically mimics the way the public wagers? (I believe that the handicapping tool you use has the capability of doing that.)

In other words, build your strategy around a static value that is neither dependant upon the final odds nor the whims of the line maker.

Just an idea.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[sq764]

Anotherdave,

I was curious as to how you handle or react to a horse that you may list as 2/1 and he's 15/1 ML odds. Do you automatically file that one under nice overlay potential, or do you see the ML odds and go back to see if something isn't right?

Just wondering if you treat these as gems or as ones for further review since the ML and your own odds are so far off..

[anotherdave]

Originally posted by sq764
Anotherdave,

I was curious as to how you handle or react to a horse that you may list as 2/1 and he's 15/1 ML odds. Do you automatically file that one under nice overlay potential, or do you see the ML odds and go back to see if something isn't right?

Just wondering if you treat these as gems or as ones for further review since the ML and your own odds are so far off..

I make my selections before I look at the morning lines, so the high odds on the ML wouldn't stop me. I have to have confidence in what I did before or I'll start second-guessing myself. I avoid that at all costs.

I try to adjust morning lines. I use them as a base, but try to figure what I think his odds will be. In the example you gave I'd be betting with both barrels as there is almost no doubt I'd have an overlay. But I might figure the public will put him at 8-1 instead of 15-1, but that's still pretty good.

AD

[joeprunes]

As you said 20-1 rarley wins but some do. I`m sure you dont like a 20-1 every day but when you like a horse , especially your top pick is a long shot you should hope it goes up to 60-1..jp

[Kentucky Bred]

By relying on the ML as your value measurement and playing early after scratches, when that horse goes up to 60-1 and you've already bet it, you are now along for the ride. I know it is a psychological thing but I'm starting to realize the importance of the psych thing in what we do.

I went through at least 10 different changes. First, bet it 5 minutes to post, then 3 minutes, then 2 minutes. Then just before the gates open. Each one had all kinds of problems, at least for me. That 60-1 is being ignored by just about everyone and you are wondering who is missing something. I started playing games with myself to talk myself out of the play. And with the run-outs you get playing price horses, you will be right (by not betting) most of the time. But when you are wrong (And your horse wins) you die).

My wife said a million times, "just play the horse and forget about it". I found that that is easier said than done. Playing the ML, especially with some of the variations described by others in this thread, seems to me to be the way to go.

I don't know about those here who play shorter price horses. I would think it could be the same but maybe not. For longshot players though, it is definitely a mental game for sure.

Kentucky Bred

[sq764]

Oh God, the wife thing just thrills me after deciding to pass on a horse I initially liked and watching him win at 15/1

"You know, you should have just bet him to win since you liked him".. Boy that statement, coming right after that happening sure sits very well..

Gotta love em..

[Pace Cap'n]

Kentucky,

As a fellow longshot player, I can certainly relate to what you say.

Many is the time I have found a M/L 15-1 that I liked, looked up at the tote and see that it's 50 or 60-1, and got to thinking I must be crazy to play a horse like that. Then watched it come in, paying big bucks a keying a huge tri. Makes you feel lower than a snake's belly in a wagon rut.

I have often thought it would be better to ignore the M/L and NEVER look at the tote--at least it would be for the longshot player. If any wager is going to lose more than it wins, the the tote only becomes important when wagering on short-price horses. Or when looking for the elusive "Value", which is, to me,
quite different than a "Longshot".

The greatest anguish the game has for me is not the loss of a wager, but the missed opportunity of the un-made bet.


Steve

[Kentucky Bred]

Originally posted by Pace Cap'n
Kentucky,


The greatest anguish the game has for me is not the loss of a wager, but the missed opportunity of the un-made bet.


Steve

Pace Cap'n:

For me, one of the truest statements I've ever read on this site.

I deal with losses pretty well as a necessary part of a winning game. But writing "no bet" on my record sheet next to a winning play is pure hell. I've written too many this year.

It is moments like this that make me realize that I am not alone in this crazy game we play and the tremendous value the Internet can have for those who want it.

Sorry for the multiple post.

Kentucky Bred

[Tom]

For me, I don't care about missing a bet. I can pass every race on the card if I dont have a compelling reason to bet. I see horses win every day that I have on top and don't bet.
For every race I actually bet, I probably pass 10-20.
I enjoy watching my horse come home first, but the real thrill is when I hit the Account - Show Balance button and watch that puppy grow.

[Pace Cap'n]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Tom@HTR
For me, I don't care about missing a bet. I can pass every race on the card if I dont have a compelling reason to bet. I see horses win every day that I have on top and don't bet.
For every race I actually bet, I probably pass 10-20.
I enjoy watching my horse come home first, but the real thrill is when I hit the Account - Show Balance button and watch that puppy grow.


Tom, I totally agree. I, too, pass lots of races. The reference was actually to the longshot bet that I almost pulled the trigger on, but didn't.

Steve