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gm10
04-26-2009, 05:17 AM
Hi people,

I have posted a free Kentucky Derby preview on my website.

http://www.latekick.com/Public/kd2009.aspx

All feedback appreciated.

Guy

Tom
04-26-2009, 01:31 PM
Nice. Thanks for sharing.

In the late kick ratings, 4 points - a length?

joanied
04-26-2009, 01:39 PM
Guy...I took a look at your Derby preview...and the only feed back I can offer is...very nice:ThmbUp: I beleive your 'take' on each horse is well thought out and I pretty much agree with what you said for each colt...the only thing is, no one seems to mention that Papa Clem's win in the Ark. Derby was to a horse (Old Fashioned) that raced, probably fom the gate, with a fractured knee...if OF hadn't broke that knee...he wins the Ark. Derby. But, PC did look good in that race.

What a wide open race this is...I cannot recall any other recent Derby where just about everyone keeps changing their minds :confused: on picks.

Is this a fun Derby or what:jump:

LutherCalvin
04-26-2009, 01:55 PM
I think that you are underestimating Flying Private.

Stevie Belmont
04-26-2009, 03:47 PM
Flying Private...Ha

You know what...I'll have him under at 60/1

Pick and preview later in the week

juanepstein
04-26-2009, 05:23 PM
19 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty $114,000

He comes into the Kentucky Derby with a dismal 1/7 record, and was comfortably beaten by Pioneerof The Nile and Chocolate Candy in his last race. No chance.







lmao!!!


obviously they didnt analyze the race to much.

onefast99
04-26-2009, 08:36 PM
Good assessments of the field we will know in 6 days who is for real and who will be running vs cheaper for the rest of 2009.

joanied
04-26-2009, 09:27 PM
I'm gonna post my picks after the draw too....I guess we are all waiting for that.

PS...Not much mention of Oaks Day....my picks:
Zenyatta in the Distaff
Rachel A in the Oaks....these two mares might be the best horse in the country right now:ThmbUp:

philofbelloni
04-27-2009, 08:58 PM
....my picks:
Zenyatta in the Distaff
Rachel A in the Oaks....these two mares might be the best horse in the country right now:ThmbUp:
Jonied, what do you think that double will pay? I'm putting down $25 on the double but only if I receive 2-1 odds. Thanks for your time!

joanied
04-28-2009, 03:50 PM
Jonied, what do you think that double will pay? I'm putting down $25 on the double but only if I receive 2-1 odds. Thanks for your time!


phil...this 'double' is two different races...Rachel A goes in the Oaks, Zenyatta in the Louisville Distaff...and each of these two will go off as very heavy favorites...like, even money...

and in all honesty...any handicapping questions are best answered by the handicappin' dudes & dudetts we have here....if I answered handicapping questions, I'd probably be...well...FULLofbelloni :D

At any rate...I do wish you best of luck :ThmbUp: with all your bets...have ya been over to the 'Handicapping' section yet?

philofbelloni
04-28-2009, 07:02 PM
Thanks Jonied. I just saw the Friday card (which looks very intriguing) and Zenyatta/Rachel Alexandre are running 5 races apart. Shame I may miss Zenyatta's race since I won't be out of work until 3pm. I figured the two largest purses on the card would run consecutive. My thought was to play a $25 Zenyatta/RA daily double and hope to collect $75 for use on a Saturday pick 4.
Finally, the twisted logic behind my forum name stems from my given name - Phil Bell (middle initial is "O".) Good luck to everyone on Friday & Saturday.

joanied
04-28-2009, 07:22 PM
Thanks Jonied. I just saw the Friday card (which looks very intriguing) and Zenyatta/Rachel Alexandre are running 5 races apart. Shame I may miss Zenyatta's race since I won't be out of work until 3pm. I figured the two largest purses on the card would run consecutive. My thought was to play a $25 Zenyatta/RA daily double and hope to collect $75 for use on a Saturday pick 4.
Finally, the twisted logic behind my forum name stems from my given name - Phil Bell (middle initial is "O".) Good luck to everyone on Friday & Saturday.

Phil...no twisted logic on your forum name...it's a great play :ThmbUp: on words...I love it...made me laugh the first time I saw your post!!

yep...they always spread the big races out during the day...keeps everyone on their toes and buying hot dogs & beer:D

Can't you record the races? I have my DVD all set...I record everything...then of course, you can watch it on the computer too...but much better to se it on a TV screen...in HD no less....yipppppeeee:jump:
You can look at the bright side as per your bets on Friday's card...save yer $$ and play your Pick 4 on Saturday...best of luck, Phil...when Rachel A & Zenyatta come screaming down the stretch...I'll be jumping and crying and laughing all at once...scares the crap outta my dogs:D

cnollfan
04-28-2009, 07:29 PM
Just confirming the latekick rating for Desert Party, which is pretty low, especially since you say that you rate him higher than Regal Ransom.

Thanks for the post.

Bettowin
04-28-2009, 07:33 PM
Guy...I took a look at your Derby preview...and the only feed back I can offer is...very nice:ThmbUp: I beleive your 'take' on each horse is well thought out and I pretty much agree with what you said for each colt...the only thing is, no one seems to mention that Papa Clem's win in the Ark. Derby was to a horse (Old Fashioned) that raced, probably fom the gate, with a fractured knee...if OF hadn't broke that knee...he wins the Ark. Derby. But, PC did look good in that race.

What a wide open race this is...I cannot recall any other recent Derby where just about everyone keeps changing their minds :confused: on picks.

Is this a fun Derby or what:jump:


Not to bring up Old Fashioned's unfortunate issues but you can't assume he would have beat Papa Clem if he didn't have a knee problem. Win Willy beat him his previous race and he was a prime play against in the Ark Derby. With that said I was impressed on how he held on at a longer distance to get second. How do we know when he suffered the injury?

gm10
04-30-2009, 07:18 AM
I'll try to address to the feedback later today, but just wanted to say that I've added the predicted ratings.

I will probably make the past performance data freely available as a one-off.

gm10
04-30-2009, 08:52 AM
* 2 latekick points = 1 length in routes
* Flying Private ... I stand by my opinion that he is a throw-out for the win. I can see a certain appeal in using him for fourth, but there are a few others who I rate higher.
* Mr. Hot Stuff ... I really don't think he is a serious contender. HE has one high rating, but that was in a maiden specialweight. He hasn't achieve anything in graded company.
* Desert Party ... this horses has obviously improved a lot during the Dubai winter, so my (American) ratings are probably a bit too low in terms of representing his current ability.
* Papa Clem ... I agree. It's definitely an element that you need to consider.

gm10
04-30-2009, 08:55 AM
The past performances data for the KD is now free-to-view, just for the occasion!

I'm using the free samples page for it, so (free and very quick) registration is required (it would have taken too much time to build a separate page just for this).

http://www.latekick.com/Protected/freepp.aspx