How do you pick your longshots?

[Canadian]

When you pick a longshot to win a race, are you (or should you) saying that this horse is most likely to win the race (from your perspective) and they just happen to be a longshot...... Or..... Do you say to yourself, "this horse is 15-1, he probably won't win, but she should win at a rate of about 1 in 13"..... thus giving you an edge.

What would be the correct approach to take?

[46zilzal]

make an odds line and bet the overlays: bigger the better. Simple

[Overlay]

I always go with edge as a criterion. If the horse that I happen to like based on degree of edge is also my top selection (that is, the horse that I consider most likely to win), so much the better. (Of course, it's easier for a horse with lower true odds (according to one's personal line) to offer a greater comparative edge than a horse with higher true odds.)

Also, if you base wager size on degree of overlay, you would generally end up betting more on a horse with lower true odds that's going off at long toteboard odds, than you would on a horse with higher true odds that's going off at long toteboard odds.

[The Judge]

player you can't be affaird of high odds. You know going in the chances of all things breaking your way aren't very good. If you think the horses in front will fade and there is one closer in the race and he is 50-1 the highest odds on the board, so what. Thats how you see the race others think 1 of the front runners will hold on. If your analysis of the race is correct and its a 10 horse field your odds maybe less then 50-1 but your horse is still a longshot no matter what odds criteria you use. Alot of things have to go right for your horse and real wrong for the rest of the field.

One way I look for a longshot is I look for the horse that just seems out of place, why is this horse in this race has somebody gone crazy. If I see this I am interested and will take a long hard look.

[The Judge]

that I have with odds line made by handicappers. If I want to bet a horse I know going in that the horse can't be 15-1 on my odds line. The horse will have to be 6-1 or 7-1 to get a bet so is this horses odds then subjectively lowered so that it makes it more possible that you will get to bet the horse? If its a computer generate odds line this shouldn't be a problem if the computer picks the pace line.

IF THIS IS STRAYING FROM THE TOPIC THEN WAIT A WHILE TO POST A REPLY, 46zilzal and Overlay.

[DRIVEWAY]

When you pick a longshot to win a race, are you (or should you) saying that this horse is most likely to win the race (from your perspective) and they just happen to be a longshot...... Or..... Do you say to yourself, "this horse is 15-1, he probably won't win, but she should win at a rate of about 1 in 13"..... thus giving you an edge.

What would be the correct approach to take?

There's no perfect way to analyze longshot probabilities. But you can set a minimum odds before you place a bet.

What I do is simple. Everyday I handicap with Procaps. Look at all the claimers on dirt and all the claimers and allowance races on Turf. Identify those races with longshots in the top three. Look at the horses running lines for reasonableness and if satisfied add to the wager list for the day.

Yesterday had 31 possible bets. Thirteen met the odds criteria with one winner. Of the eigtheen wagers passed, there were 3 winners.

One day last week there were 23 wagers with no winners. Unfortunately 4 horses ran second that day. Obviously, there will be frustrating results. Horses just below yours minimum odds winning and others running second with nice place mutuals.

I keep a journal of each day and download the results for each track. Occasionally, I'll review my approach but have stayed the course of just placing win bets.

Whatever you wind up doing, keep quality records, maintain selection consistency and minimize any wagers until your satisfied with your approach.

The bigger the minimum odds the greater the runouts will be.

Good Luck.

[cmoore]

First thing is you should like the horse for some reason..Lone Speed, Lone Closer with a ton of front speed race..Pedigree, Great workout tab, Has faced much tougher and the public doesn't realize it...There's countless other reasons..

Picking long shots is much harder then picking 3-1's or less for the beginner or even average handicapper..The reason being is that the 3-1's positives are much more obvious to everyone..The long shot pick probably has 1 maybe 2 angles in it's favor that the public doesn't consider or just over looks..Try to find that one or two angle horse who should be 6-1 and is going off at 10-1..

Patience is key..It gets me on occasions..You keep firing and before you know it..your on a 15-20 bet losing streak..Then you either start firing on any old long shot..Or even worse you lower your standards and start hammering 5/2's trying to get your money back for the day..Don't do it..

[kenwoodallpromos]

I say "The morning line maker took about 10 minutes to figure odds on ALL the runners, and dismisses the longshots quickly to move on to the contenders. I look for what the M/Ler missed. Usually on the extreme left or right side of the PP's (race spacing or type, start of race, competition, comments, record at certain distance or type race. A big stakes race recently at 1 1/2 miles at Belmont was won by a longshot who had won a lower class race there- at 1 1/2 miles!
You have to look at what makes a longshot an overlay- weather, record, scratches, early speed, etc; THEN figure what its odds should be.
A favorite who finished place the last 4 races is a false favorite waiting to get beat. A KY Deby closer at the 2 post is looking to get beat.

[Overlay]

If I want to bet a horse I know going in that the horse can't be 15-1 on my odds line. The horse will have to be 6-1 or 7-1 to get a bet so is this horses odds then subjectively lowered so that it makes it more possible that you will get to bet the horse?

Another way to avoid that problem (besides having the computer make the line) is to figure the line yourself, but base it only on objective, quantitative data (as a computer would). Do the calculations and let the resulting probabilities speak for themselves, without subjective adjustment (which makes it easier to maintain betting discipline).

[InFront]

When you pick a longshot to win a race, are you (or should you) saying that this horse is most likely to win the race (from your perspective) and they just happen to be a longshot...... Or..... Do you say to yourself, "this horse is 15-1, he probably won't win, but she should win at a rate of about 1 in 13"..... thus giving you an edge.

What would be the correct approach to take?

I would say in general most good handicappers very seldom will pick a higher odds horse based cause it is "most likely to win the race" but play it due to it's higher odds. The whole concept of winning and profiting in racing is very simple. You must play horses that you estimate will win at a higher rate when compared to how the public actually bets them. But since the public are some of the most accurate people around as a group around accomplishing this task is much easier to say than do.

As far as betting on longshots goes. Think about it, this horse is a longshot for some reason according to the public. Not saying it can't win or at it's final odds may now make it a good overlay or good bet.

In racing it is tough to make profits playing low odds stuff simply cause even though your win% will be decent it is tough for your average payoffs to be high enough overall. Just the same it is almost just as difficult to show profits playing mainly higher odds horses cause while your average payoff would be good your win% will suffer greatly. But I would say overall the public makes more mistakes in higher odds horses than they do in lower odds horses.

You must consider facts that is 80% of all races are won by the top 4 favorites, 80% of all races are won by horses paying less than $16, horses with MLO over 10/1 win only 8% of all races that run, etc. So when you are handicapping any race/horse you must always consider every part of this game and seperate facts (things you definitely know from past research) from fiction (things you don't know).

[Greyfox]

I keep a journal of each day and download the results for each track. Occasionally, I'll review my approach but have stayed the course of just placing win bets.

Whatever you wind up doing, keep quality records, maintain selection consistency and minimize any wagers until your satisfied with your approach.

Good Luck.

:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: Very sage advice.
In my journal I keep notes re: trips, and trainer patterns.
I also use the free DRF Horse Watch to e mail me when my suspected long shot is entered again. If it is a "good fit" with respect to the upcoming field, for Pace and distance, it may be a play. Don't accept too short odds though if the general public is all over it too. Trainers with small stables might want longer odds and may wait until next time for the "send."

[Greyfox]

You must consider facts that is 80% of all races are won by the top 4 favorites, 80% of all races are won by horses paying less than $16, horses with MLO over 10/1 win only 8% of all races that run, etc. .

True. But that still leaves 20 % that can win at higher odds.
Effectively 1 in 5 races defies the above rule.
That's where good scores are made on Daily Doubles and Pick 3's, if you have a "logical long shot."

[fmolf]

i think you need to make an odds line first so you can figure the overlays you like....i have found that most 25/1 and higher horses are actually underlays an should be much greater odds....to actually select longshots i like to look for subtle things like a large gain in the middle fraction when his last few races before last one he has steadily lost ground...or back class coupled with a track change /jockey switch......sometimes i find them thru body language and paddock inspection this is easier at smaller tracks with cheaper animals!I am most comfortable with longshots in the 10/1-20/1 range when i believe they should be lower

[Greyfox]

i think you need to make an odds line first so you can figure the overlays you like....i have found that most 25/1 and higher horses are actually underlays an should be much greater odds....

Accepting the above bold premise as true, that the 25-1 horse should be 50-1 by your odds prediction, would that stop you from putting a few bucks on the nose of it because it was "underlayed according to your odds theory?"
At any track a double digit odds runner that has an "angle chance" to win,
should be considered as a possible flat bet play.

"If" I see something there in the past performances, I think 25-1 is an outstanding opportunity to make a play - win or place. My odds line wouldn't deter me. ("If" is the operative word.)

[fmolf]

Accepting the above bold premise as true, that the 25-1 horse should be 50-1 by your odds prediction, would that stop you from putting a few bucks on the nose of it because it was "underlayed according to your odds theory?"
At any track a double digit odds runner that has an "angle chance" to win,
should be considered as a possible flat bet play.

"If" I see something there in the past performances, I think 25-1 is an outstanding opportunity to make a play - win or place. My odds line wouldn't deter me. ("If" is the operative word.)
absolutely would not make the play..why would i bet a horse that actually would win once in fifty one races at half the price he should be.... i look for horses i have at 15/1 and the public makes them 25/1...the higher the better..just because a horses odds are high does not make him a good bet.. i will not make a bet on any horse that i give less than a 15/1 shot to win

[KathleenImposter]

Wait for a cheap maiden race and bet a horse who has been running against MSW or tough MCL with poor form, but with some hint in the form that the horse can run (IE, a horse who maybe runs midpack but fades and gets beat 15-20 lengths and beats a couple of horses). You can hit about 3-4 a day at all racetracks if you just bet this angle. Usually get between 8-1 and 15-1 as others do bet the maiden droppers.

[fmolf]

Wait for a cheap maiden race and bet a horse who has been running against MSW or tough MCL with poor form, but with some hint in the form that the horse can run (IE, a horse who maybe runs midpack but fades and gets beat 15-20 lengths and beats a couple of horses). You can hit about 3-4 a day at all racetracks if you just bet this angle. Usually get between 8-1 and 15-1 as others do bet the maiden droppers.
excellent longshot angle.... i have used it often i like to see a brief flash of speed at the higher class usually in first or second fraction...horse must still be an overlay according to my assigned odds

[ranchwest]

I don't think anyone has said anything about finding a vulnerable favorite. There's only one winner. If it's the favorite, it's not a longshot.

[Greyfox]

absolutely would not make the play..why would i bet a horse that actually would win once in fifty one races at half the price he should be.... i look for horses i have at 15/1 and the public makes them 25/1...the higher the better..just because a horses odds are high does not make him a good bet.. i will not make a bet on any horse that i give less than a 15/1 shot to win

Your thinking is right for sure, when it comes to flat bet plays.
That is based on the assumption that your abiliity to make an odds line truly reflects a horse's chances. If you're wrong on that ability, then who knows what the horse's chances are.
When you look at a 25-1 horse at the track do you truly know that his odds should be 50-1 or 15-1?
Perhaps I look at the same horse and see it as 10-1 and you look at it and see it at 30-1. Which of us is right? We'd have to sit there for a couple of years and see who is the most accurate.
We know 25-1 horses on the board come in with less frequency than 25-1.
However, some bettors are better than others at spotting when those 25-1 shots are coming in. On occasions I would make the play and particularly in flat and horizontal bets.

[dutchboy]

1. Longshots that have the highest number of days since their last race. Must be at least 100 days. If it is a cheap claiming race this may be the only horse that is well rested and is not sore.

2. Longshots that are returning in 9 days or less since last race. Only bet if it is just one horse. Trainer intent may have been today's race so the horse may show a bad finish which raises today's odds. Or the horse may have been fit but had a bad start or traffic problems.

Not sure why it happens but if you look at huge prices these two things often show up. If you keep the pp's and results it might be something to look at.

[dutchboy]

Longshots ( 10-1 plus ) that have one or more of these:

1 Best total pace
2 Best early and mid pace combined
3 Best late pace if this is a turf race
4 Have run a race to par for today's race
5 Best final time
6 Trainers with a specialty.
7 First time starters in maiden races when running against horses with multiple starts who have already proven they cannot win.

[andymays]

Here's a good angle!

Gelded, good works since, up in class, good trainer, 10-1 or better!

[BIG RED]

I like when I do have a nice price horse going, and it looks like there will be a heavy fave I do not like. Naturally, your horse gets even more odds (overlay), and I will place the to win bet, feeling more comfortable.

[JustRalph]

I don't pick them............the crowd does............

it is very detailed.........for me anyway. But the crowd overlooks them......I don't...............I have several in mind that I couldn't believe the crowd bet "against"

[Greyfox]

I don't pick them............the crowd does............

it is very detailed.........for me anyway. But the crowd overlooks them......I don't...............I have several in mind that I couldn't believe the crowd bet "against"

:ThmbUp: Right on the money JR. Right on.:ThmbUp:

[The Judge]

If you make a horse 15-1 on "your" odds line it is difficult for me to understand how you would ever get to bet the horse. It would seem that you would have so many horses rated ahead of a 15-1 shot that there would be at least 2-3 other horses going off at overlays before you get to your 15-1 shot.

This is one reason the odds line makers usually make a cut off of 6-1 or 7-1 for horses that are bettable on their odds line. Also for most people it becomes more and more difficult to distinquish between high odds horses.

Most hanidcappers can tell a odds on horse from a 3-1 horse , but very few people can tell the difference between a 15-1 and a 22-1. What are the characteristics of a 15-1 horse and a 22-1 horse they must be so close as to be almost indistinquishable.

[eqitec]

Overlays are the key. See what I do below:

[fmolf]

Your thinking is right for sure, when it comes to flat bet plays.
That is based on the assumption that your abiliity to make an odds line truly reflects a horse's chances. If you're wrong on that ability, then who knows what the horse's chances are.
When you look at a 25-1 horse at the track do you truly know that his odds should be 50-1 or 15-1?
Perhaps I look at the same horse and see it as 10-1 and you look at it and see it at 30-1. Which of us is right? We'd have to sit there for a couple of years and see who is the most accurate.
We know 25-1 horses on the board come in with less frequency than 25-1.
However, some bettors are better than others at spotting when those 25-1 shots are coming in. On occasions I would make the play and particularly in flat and horizontal bets.
you are absolutely corresct those beetorsthat see 25/1's that do come in i am sure are making very accurate odds lines.... plenty of my 15/1's do go off higher and i do bet them i try to stay off 25/1 horses that i see no redeeming qualities in.. i understand your point i think we are basically saying the same thing!... i like all ..i hope.. do use more long shots in my spread legs of the horizontal wagers when i have a good opinion

[Harvhorse]

i handicap the race, any 1st or 2nd choices 5/1 or better I bet them. Any 3rd or 4th choices9/1 or higher I bet them.

[fmolf]

Overlays are the key. See what I do below:
are the fair odds your own odds line?... then you check that against the odds close to post time ..i use a similar method except i ignore the morning line..do not find it to be helpful except in baby races and maiden races with firsters..then only to see which horses are taking good money

[Greyfox]

Most hanidcappers can tell a odds on horse from a 3-1 horse , but very few people can tell the difference between a 15-1 and a 22-1. What are the characteristics of a 15-1 horse and a 22-1 horse they must be so close as to be almost indistinquishable.

Absolutely spot on. Once a horse is moving to double digits and I like his chances, I don't mind seeing the odds go higher and higher.
The other evening in Hollywood's last race a horse # 8 Hot and Stacey? or something like that, looked fantastic in the post parade. It's previous races were little to get warmed up about. But it had previously shown speed and stopped. It's odds moved from 15-1, to 20-1, and then finished at 29-1.
I flat bet it. It just lost the win and paid $ 20 place.
I felt that this one looked so good in the post parade that anything over 10-1 would make it a play for me. I don't know that I would have taken it just on looks at 5-1. I'd want to see some form in the racing lines.
I think JR is right. I pick the horse I like. The public determines if it's a longshot or not. The higher they want to make my player, the better.

[fmolf]

If you make a horse 15-1 on "your" odds line it is difficult for me to understand how you would ever get to bet the horse. It would seem that you would have so many horses rated ahead of a 15-1 shot that there would be at least 2-3 other horses going off at overlays before you get to your 15-1 shot.

This is one reason the odds line makers usually make a cut off of 6-1 or 7-1 for horses that are bettable on their odds line. Also for most people it becomes more and more difficult to distinquish between high odds horses.

Most hanidcappers can tell a odds on horse from a 3-1 horse , but very few people can tell the difference between a 15-1 and a 22-1. What are the characteristics of a 15-1 horse and a 22-1 horse they must be so close as to be almost indistinquishable.
it is experience for me... i play ny so here as in everywhere certain jock/trainer combos get bet...bringing 15/1-20/1 odds down... like everyone i have certain angles i like for longshots "i cannot tell you what it looks like but you'll know it when you see it"..I like to go back and look at the pp's when a longshot i did not have comes in...looking for clues as to why he won...oft times i am still scratching my head looking......if i have a 15/1 my line going off at 25/1 and a 6/1 going off at 8/1.. odds are high enough i just may bet both!

[dav4463]

Horses with poor recent races who have done well in the past.

Horses with good recent races, but have a low profile trainer and/or jockey.

Horses that have competitive speed figures, but has never shown ability at today's distance and/or surface.

Lightly-raced horses with poor speed figures in maiden races or 3yo races against a field of proven losers with better numbers.

Top jockey at the meet on a horse with low speed figures causing you to ask "why is he on this horse?"

[fmolf]

Horses with poor recent races who have done well in the past.

Horses with good recent races, but have a low profile trainer and/or jockey.

Horses that have competitive speed figures, but has never shown ability at today's distance and/or surface.

Lightly-raced horses with poor speed figures in maiden races or 3yo races against a field of proven losers with better numbers.

Top jockey at the meet on a horse with low speed figures causing you to ask "why is he on this horse?"all good angles!
don't forget shippers from lower level tracks with competitve numbers or back class....

[nobeyerspls]

My dad took me to the track in 1956 when I was thirteen and over the years I have found seven reasons to bet a racehorse (I posted them on this forum before). On rare occasions more than one of those reasons is present in a single horse and that presents tremendous value. One such recently was a $94 filly at Oaklawn (freshened, blinkers on, 2nd lifetime start).
You want to bet these straight but determining the right exotics to play (i.e. vertical or horizontal) is the real challenge. The plan is to bet a little to win a lot and the ultimate goal is $10,000 or more for a $20 bet. The opportunities are rare but when you hit one you have reached handicapping nirvana.

[fmolf]

i always look for change be it track...equipt...surface....jockey...meds....first time gelding /second time gelding....first with trainer etc etc....

[uncbossfan]

One that has worked well for me is catching a hot young jock and riding the waive before everybody catches on. I was lucky enough to see Bejarano and Leparoux race at TP before they got big and followed them from there to places like Kee, CD, etc and caught some great prices

My jock right now is Miguel Mena. He will cash a few bombs at CD this meet and I'm glad to see he got a mount in a very short Oaks field Friday.

I almost exclusively play longer shots, 5-1 or higher. You have the obvious ones like lone speed and horse for course, but some other angles are when a particular jock has had better luck than most, fires fresh off a layoff and being able to throw the last race or 2 out due to surface or trip he got.

[fmolf]

i still will play a solid favorite on top in exactas ....use him in p3's or p4's...perhaps build a tri around him , but that is my least favorite wager.. i do not like to lock myself into only one wager and lots of races i will bet two horses if the odds are overlayed enough to make it worthwhile!

[dav4463]

all good angles!
don't forget shippers from lower level tracks with competitve numbers or back class....



Good point. A Sunland Park to Lone Star Park horse paid my bills one month!

[fmolf]

Good point. A Sunland Park to Lone Star Park horse paid my bills one month!
ditto for me sunland to turf paradise though... had everything win bet exata and tri. :jump: