DRF Derby PP's out!

[Kentucky Bred]

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Kentucky Bred


http://www.drf.com/tc/derby/2003/pps/contender_pps.pdf

[JustRalph]

I think I can wait for post positions

[azibuck]

Has anyone seen the Brisnet version?

[Vinnie]

Hey Folks!

What does everyone think of Buddy Gil's chances in the Derby?! I know that his speed figures don't quite compare with a horse like Empire Maker, but, just in watching his last three, I believe that if he is in the neighborhood coming into the final turn, watch out. This horse runs with a great deal of intestinal fortitude..... If I hadn't seen him in his two prior efforts I would have never had him in the Santa Anita Derby to win it...

With these young horses you just never truly know who you have seen that may have produced their best effort already or on the other hand who may be maturing by leaps and bounds from week to week. I suppose that is what makes these T-Crown events so intriguing.

It should be an interesting race this year.

All the BEST!

Vinnie23

[Kentucky Bred]

As a horse bettor who grew up in SoCal I rooted every year for the California monster to blow 'em away at the Derby. Most years I went home sad. At least I got Gato Del Sol but missed the bet on Ferdinand.

Why have the California invaders, usually well bred and tested against good horses, fared so poorly over the years?

The Cal trainers seem to realize this. Look how many more are opting for prep races out East. Buddy Gil has been at CD for some time now as evidenced by his great 6f work three days ago. But lots of Cal trainers have tried that.

My best guess as to why is either the surface differences from SA to CD or the long break between the SA Derby and the Ky Derby. Some years it can be 5 weeks. It seems like lately it has been one month or so. Still, could be too long to keep a good horse at that type of level.

So, I would love to believe in a horse from a $3,000 stallion taking it all...but...

Kentucky Bred

[Vinnie]

Kentucky Bred,

Your post is well received and you have made many excellent points. I am just searching for a price. I truly believe that Empire Maker appears to be pretty devastating, but, in these types of races I would love to be able to get that bubble-horse that is coming off at a fairly decent price. Did you see that SA Derby?! WOW!! You know Indian Express truly ran a humongous race and he could really be a factor in here if he gets an excellent trip.

Thanks for your excellent comments.

Vinnie

[Kentucky Bred]

I'm not ready to run to the windows yet but the plus points are

...a tremendously underrated trainer in Wally Dollase (He trained a horse for me in the late 80's even before Itsallgreektome...first rate and does what's right for the horse),

...Pay Day choosing the horse over others, winning the race that gave us War Emblem?, (maybe complementary surfaces?)

...and lastly tactical speed in a race which seems so far to lack that usual heavy speed pace scenarios.

I think you will get a price (10-1?), be in contention.

Negatives are the low weight he carried and a month off. Also the big jump in Beyers makes you wonder about the bounce thing.

Give me one trainer in a big race and Dollase maybe the person.

Kentucky Bred

[JustRalph]

A 20 horse field is the big thing to overcome in my opine. I like 10mostwanted too, if Empire maker has any trouble at all....there are a few in there that suddenly come into play. Post position draw will be very interesting

[Vinnie]

Ralph,

I totally agree. All of these young horses running and 20 of them to boot. Which ever horses are able to establish themselves early and not experience too much traffic or difficulties may have a legitimate shot in this one. If Empire Maker should get placed in a post way outside it will be interesting indeed.


Vinnie

ps- Kentucky Bred, I appreciate the comments about Dollase. I will have to keep a close eye on "Ten Most Wanted" because I haven't seen him run in any of the prep races this year that I have personally watched.

[cj]

I had already begun to suspect, and my brother confirmed it in an email, Ten Most Wanted is becoming this year's "wise guy horse". The list is long, the losers are many...Win or lose, I'll be shocked to see more than 9-2 on this guy.

CJ