Pioneerof The Nile - Workout

[Watcher]

Sounds like he handled the dirt well...


Pioneerof the Nile (six furlongs in 1:13.52): Any questions regarding Pioneerof the Nile's ability to adapt to dirt after racing exclusively on synthetic surfaces throughout his career should have been erased after watching him glide across the track immediately after the break. With exercise rider Joe Steiner aboard, Pioneerof the Nile showed off his long, smooth stride while going effortlessly from start to finish, cutting out a series of 12-second eighth-mile splits without urging before finishing up with good energy to the wire and around the turn. He then proceeded to gallop out strongly down the backstretch before pulling up near the three-eighths pole. The final time might have been a bit misleading because of the somewhat tiring nature of the racetrack and the fact he worked without company. But make no mistake, Pioneerof the Nile has the look of a horse coming up to the Derby in peak form.
Is a work like this usually comparative to how a horse will handle a track on race day?

[Sabong]

Baffert almost always works his horses very fast. I dont think this horse is good enough and I'm not going to let any fast workouts even at CD change my mind. I like it though as it means he will take more money on Derby day & thats more money in my pocket when he runs 10th.

[toussaud]

people forget that POTN has two questions not one. first of all is the dirt. but even htough he takes to dirt, doesn't mean he's GOOD enough to win it. he might be, but there are two questions, not one. it's not assumed that the only thing that can stop him from winning is the dirt

[LemonSoupKid]

But Toussaud, when was the last time that a horse entered, regardless of surface, having beat the probable favorite twice and another of the top prep winners (Papa Clem)?

I don't know what will happen but it seems pretty ignorant to dismiss this fact. Many are taking it very very lightly.

[toussaud]

But Toussaud, when was the last time that a horse entered, regardless of surface, having beat the probable favorite twice and another of the top prep winners (Papa Clem)?

I don't know what will happen but it seems pretty ignorant to dismiss this fact. Many are taking it very very lightly.



nO i agree with you. I am not betting on him but it wouldnt' shock me if he won it. but that does not change the fact that 2 questions have to be answered about him

[FlyinLate]

But Toussaud, when was the last time that a horse entered, regardless of surface, having beat the probable favorite twice and another of the top prep winners (Papa Clem)?

I don't know what will happen but it seems pretty ignorant to dismiss this fact. Many are taking it very very lightly.

Well put, POTN compares to Colonel John from last year. Difference is horses like El Gato Malo last year didn't ship east and win two key preps.

[toussaud]

Well put, POTN compares to Colonel John from last year. Difference is horses like El Gato Malo last year didn't ship east and win two key preps.

But gayego did win the arknasas derby and would have won the rebel had he actually ran in it.

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Pioneer always works out well. This work doesn't surprise me at all. There aren't many horses who don't take to the dirt after running on Santa Anita's surface. If it were Turfway or Keeneland, it would be a different story.

It seems that after every work Pioneer has, Baffert says it was the best work he has ever had. I had high hopes for him going into his last couple races, but was left upset afterwards when he struggled to beat horses like Feisty Suances.

I'll change my opinion on him going into the Derby, thinking that he's just a good work horse, but not necessarily a great race horse. I predict he gets the Colonel John trip and finishes like 6th. Who knows though, the one time I expect less from him is when he'll surprise me and beat me.

[rjorio]

Don't overrate this work, which by all reports was impressive,the surface this work was recorded on will bare only a passing resemblance to that which the Kentucky Derby will be run on. Pioneer Of The Nile must not only handle the surface change but must also show significant improvement. Possible, yes ,but do you really want him at what figures to be an underlayed price for an over hyped horse.

[Marshall Bennett]

Don't overrate this work, which by all reports was impressive,the surface this work was recorded on will bare only a passing resemblance to that which the Kentucky Derby will be run on. Pioneer Of The Nile must not only handle the surface change but must also show significant improvement. Possible, yes ,but do you really want him at what figures to be an underlayed price for an over hyped horse.
You've got that right . overhyped . Gomez strikes out again . He's done almost everything but win a TC race . I see no change in his future .

[SmartyLane]

I def think POTN has the ability, but much like Colonel John last year who posted good workouts prior to the derby on the CD surface, the surface will be much different come May 2nd as was said above. If he gets a trouble free trip, which is probably unlikely with his style and a 20 horse field, then he could possibly do it.

Just my opinion. This is my first post on the board b/c I just found it. Finally a place to discuss this kind of stuff with other horse race addicts such as myself. Hello to everybody.

[toussaud]

I def think POTN has the ability, but much like Colonel John last year who posted good workouts prior to the derby on the CD surface, the surface will be much different come May 2nd as was said above. If he gets a trouble free trip, which is probably unlikely with his style and a 20 horse field, then he could possibly do it.

Just my opinion. This is my first post on the board b/c I just found it. Finally a place to discuss this kind of stuff with other horse race addicts such as myself. Hello to everybody.
hey

[Bruddah]

I def think POTN has the ability, but much like Colonel John last year who posted good workouts prior to the derby on the CD surface, the surface will be much different come May 2nd as was said above. If he gets a trouble free trip, which is probably unlikely with his style and a 20 horse field, then he could possibly do it.

Just my opinion. This is my first post on the board b/c I just found it. Finally a place to discuss this kind of stuff with other horse race addicts such as myself. Hello to everybody.


A Hale and Hearty welcome from me, Bruddah! a lot of good handicappers and smart horse people on this board. Not many A$$ holes but plenty of good horse crap. (information) :ThmbUp: ;)

[CincyHorseplayer]

But Toussaud, when was the last time that a horse entered, regardless of surface, having beat the probable favorite twice and another of the top prep winners (Papa Clem)?

I don't know what will happen but it seems pretty ignorant to dismiss this fact. Many are taking it very very lightly.

I think that's a good question and to me I think the answer is that 3yo's aren't isolated in time.While Revenge and Clem have gotten better AND faster moving to dirt,a progression you want to see out of a horse headed to the Triple Crown.Pioneer,on a surface he has relished,hasn't gotten better OR faster while the apparent competition has diminished.Not something you want to see out of a horse headed to the triple crown.

Who knows how much if at all the dirt will move him up,but my guess is that it won't be to the tune of 15 Beyer points needed to win the Derby.Plus watching his last race the stretch punch he had shown earlier,which Baffert was saying would increase his chances as the distances grew hasn't "appeared" to have gotten stronger.He might be the weakest of the closers on derby day IMO.

[toussaud]

really, papa clem didn't just jump off the paper on his switch to dirt. he ran a 99 in the arknasas derby, a 91 in the slop of the LA derby and a 94 in the beverly lewis. that's pretty consistant.


Jon White's horse crush on POTN makes me hope he loses.

[Cat Thief]

I was taking him lightly but the more I think of it, the more it doesn't make sense. The horse has won 5 graded race, he has the top jockey and trainer, he obviously can run so I am not taking him lightly anymore, he will be in my top 3,

[joanied]

Hey there Smarty Lane :) grab the reins and tie yourself on...the ride here is outstanding:jump:

[joanied]

I was taking him lightly but the more I think of it, the more it doesn't make sense. The horse has won 5 graded race, he has the top jockey and trainer, he obviously can run so I am not taking him lightly anymore, he will be in my top 3,

Good idea:ThmbUp:
:)

[LemonSoupKid]

I don't fear that I'm going to change your minds (and drop the price) because all the days I've been involved in this game, most people aren't that persuaded when they seem to have made their minds up. The reason I get this impression is that no one has addressed my points really, so far. I'll keep them just to this thread.

I hope you guys continue to doubt (which I like), obviously you can see that I am leaning toward him, but let me mention (ask) a few more things:

1) Toussaud, What are the two questions? Isn't your 2nd question the same for every horse in the race?! Is he good enough? You say that Papa Clem "would have beaten him, or would not have let him pass him" --- but that didn't happen. So at least on one day, more than we can say for Papa, Pioneer was better.

2) One horse from California, Colonel John, last year, worked well over Churchill and didn't win a race with 20 horses in it. That proves a lot. Was he sired by Empire Maker? Was he trained by Baffert? Was he a May Foal?

We just need to be honest about these things.

I haven't determined what a fair price for this horse is, but I have obviously thought a lot about him. In general, I think the minimum you've gotta take, in a race like this is 5 or 6:1. Last year it seemed Big Brown was heads above the class, but this year 4-6 horses wouldn't surprise at all as winners. There are a lot of horses this year that can run well on the lead or very near ... which is an obvious advantage when trip can outright disqualify horses unlike in any other race.

In summary, I will just say that I don't think the Beyers this year are very good numbers. I am not taking them that seriously. That doesn't mean I haven't looked at them though. This surface issue is annoying, I wish there were some kind of tea party against it and a new wave of dirt racing rekindled in the States. As Zito has said, that is our trademark and if kept well, it can be just as safe.

My thoughts,

LemonSoupKid

[toussaud]

I don't fear that I'm going to change your minds (and drop the price) because all the days I've been involved in this game, most people aren't that persuaded when they seem to have made their minds up. The reason I get this impression is that no one has addressed my points really, so far. I'll keep them just to this thread.

I hope you guys continue to doubt (which I like), obviously you can see that I am leaning toward him, but let me mention (ask) a few more things:

1) Toussaud, What are the two questions? Isn't your 2nd question the same for every horse in the race?! Is he good enough? You say that Papa Clem "would have beaten him, or would not have let him pass him" --- but that didn't happen. So at least on one day, more than we can say for Papa, Pioneer was better.

2) One horse from California, Colonel John, last year, worked well over Churchill and didn't win a race with 20 horses in it. That proves a lot. Was he sired by Empire Maker? Was he trained by Baffert? Was he a May Foal?

We just need to be honest about these things.

I haven't determined what a fair price for this horse is, but I have obviously thought a lot about him. In general, I think the minimum you've gotta take, in a race like this is 5 or 6:1. Last year it seemed Big Brown was heads above the class, but this year 4-6 horses wouldn't surprise at all as winners. There are a lot of horses this year that can run well on the lead or very near ... which is an obvious advantage when trip can outright disqualify horses unlike in any other race.

In summary, I will just say that I don't think the Beyers this year are very good numbers. I am not taking them that seriously. That doesn't mean I haven't looked at them though. This surface issue is annoying, I wish there were some kind of tea party against it and a new wave of dirt racing rekindled in the States. As Zito has said, that is our trademark and if kept well, it can be just as safe.

My thoughts,

LemonSoupKid

my two questions are 1. can he handle dirt and 2. not is he good enough if he FAST enough. that's a totoally different question. I actually think his beyers are about in line with the way he's been running. if that is the case, can he improve say...14 points to win. is he that much better on dirt? as cincy said, his times and lack of accelration leave alot to be desired when you look at the splits in the races he runs.

Also, although empire maker won the belmont, etc, his offspring are not (yet) known for liking dirt. I mad this point in another thread earlier. His best offspring all LOvE synethic and turf. His damsire is a turf horse and while toussaud did run here, she also ran on turf as well (quite well i might add), and his half brother (by mr. dirt sire himself no less mr. p) chester house won the arlington million and is a hell of a turf / synethic sire.

what i'm getting at is, I dn't think it's as ovbious as everyone makes it that just beause the sire is 'empire maker" that POTN is going to love dirt. in fact, looking his pedigree and his siblings I'd suggest otherwise.

I'll add, His other half brother Dearchy was a turf miler. Even his half sis honest lady who is best known for being 2nd in the BC sprint, took a liking to the turf.

Mott even said that this colt's best surface is turf.


You are not taking the beyers seriously because you like POTN. I'm not saying that's wrong. I'm not saying he won't win but he will have to run the race of his life to do so.

Look.. look at the santa anita derby. He runs the 5-6th furlong in 23. 67, then he runs the 7-8th furlongs in 24. 35 and the final furlong in 12.5 even.

even though visually it looks like he's holding off horses, he's actually getting slower and slower as the race is going. He's going the wrong way. it's just that the horses behind him were going slower than he was.

So again, the question is, is he fast enough.

[toussaud]

to make matters worse, it's not like they were cooking the first half mile, they ran it in 48. 65. So you have a horse who is running slow early and slower late.

[Marshall Bennett]

I was taking him lightly but the more I think of it, the more it doesn't make sense. The horse has won 5 graded race, he has the top jockey and trainer, he obviously can run so I am not taking him lightly anymore, he will be in my top 3,
just don't bet on him , he's tired & will fall flat . Gomez rides another loser ... ;)

[discodog]

If you can't make a line on the race, how can you decide who to bet? Who cares about workouts, dirt or fake dirt, trainer hype, jockey hype, Media HYPE (TVG/HRTV). You may as well listen to ESPN, and that nut job crew.

[LemonSoupKid]

I won't deny that Empire Maker foals have a liking for the turf. You make good points ... but don't get disingenuous on me. Emipire Maker wasn't just a Belmont winner (and I'll admit that was in the slop) he finished a close 2nd in the Derby! I had Funny Cide, but Funny Cide was not the better horse (just that day).

And no I don't dislike the Beyers just because they aren't as good to Pioneer. I have a problem with the egregious adjusting. I'm not sure they are good at all.

If the Beyers are so good or trustworthy, why do the Performance Figures differ so greatly? Big Brown had the biggest PF last year, but those below him weren't so controversial. Both QR and BB both ran at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby --- and since Beyers are strictly are about time, they don't tell us the story.

PFs (forgetting other parameters that strengthen my argument) hold up very well in the Derby over the past few years. So you please tell me why after Quality Road's top number all the other numbers are virtually the same and POTN has the 3rd best figure?

If you watch the SA Derby again, he was forced to take the lead early ... and that won't be the case in the Kentucky Derby, which suits him better.

[LemonSoupKid]

Disco, I never said I couldn't make a line for the race. Not all the info is in. I see you guys have decided, which is fine. Good luck. My arguments stand on their own merits.

[toussaud]

I won't deny that Empire Maker foals have a liking for the turf. You make good points ... but don't get disingenuous on me. Emipire Maker wasn't just a Belmont winner (and I'll admit that was in the slop) he finished a close 2nd in the Derby! I had Funny Cide, but Funny Cide was not the better horse (just that day).

And no I don't dislike the Beyers just because they aren't as good to Pioneer. I have a problem with the egregious adjusting. I'm not sure they are good at all.

If the Beyers are so good or trustworthy, why do the Performance Figures differ so greatly? Big Brown had the biggest PF last year, but those below him weren't so controversial. Both QR and BB both ran at Gulfstream in the Florida Derby --- and since Beyers are strictly are about time, they don't tell us the story.

PFs (forgetting other parameters that strengthen my argument) hold up very well in the Derby over the past few years. So you please tell me why after Quality Road's top number all the other numbers are virtually the same and POTN has the 3rd best figure?

If you watch the SA Derby again, he was forced to take the lead early ... and that won't be the case in the Kentucky Derby, which suits him better.


1. correct me if im' wrong but didnt' peace rules finish ahead of empire maker?

2. the whole point about empire maker and the belmont is simply that he took to dirt. he always took to dirt. from his maiden at belmont, to the florida derby to the wood, it never was an issuse for him. but it seems to be an issue for his offpsring.


3. my user name is his dam, lol, I assure you I like empire maker a heck of alot. But he is what he is.

[Sabong]

I personally dont see where being by Empire Maker is such a postive thing on any surface. His best runners have been vastly overhyped (Country Star) and to me so far he is just not much of a sire when you consider how bad he is dragging down his mares. Yeah they are still young & it took Chester House a while to start getting runners but so far Empire Maker has been very dissipointing as a sire. Pioneer of The Nile is a half to Forefathers who I'm sure you all remember from a couple years ago. He was a decent horse & ran on dirt for Zito but was mainly a one turn speed minded horse so that does not flatter POTN chances for me either.

[Bignick63]

I don't think this comparison is at all relevant. It's a totally different thing going synth to dirt than dirt to synth. Not saying POTN is going to win but to discount him for this kind of reason makes no sense.

-nick
www.nickborg.com

[toussaud]

people talk about dunkrik and his lack of foundation, however I'm pretty sure, not 100% sure but pretty sure, no horse has ever won the derby without every running on dirt before the race./

[LemonSoupKid]

I have trepidation about the surface thing, but you are throwing out another anachronistic "derby jinx"

Why has no one done it? No one has tried. Big Brown was a turf winner. Yes, he had run on dirt. But the question remains:

Would you rather have a horse that has beaten several others in the field and has a nice 2 year old foundation or one that hasn't beaten them with no real 2 year old foundation?

The choice is easy to me ... unless horse #1 just looks terrible in taking to the track.

Does any of this guarantee results? No! There are 20 horses. It's never easy winning, that's why the payouts are so great for this race, if you can hit it.

[toussaud]

I have trepidation about the surface thing, but you are throwing out another anachronistic "derby jinx"

Why has no one done it? No one has tried. Big Brown was a turf winner. Yes, he had run on dirt. But the question remains:

Would you rather have a horse that has beaten several others in the field and has a nice 2 year old foundation or one that hasn't beaten them with no real 2 year old foundation?

The choice is easy to me ... unless horse #1 just looks terrible in taking to the track.

Does any of this guarantee results? No! There are 20 horses. It's never easy winning, that's why the payouts are so great for this race, if you can hit it.


you just proved my point for me and whyi don't believe in derby jinxes. people use derby jinxes to disqualifiy horses they dont' lke,a nd when they apply to their horses they don't mean much.

If POTN loses, which I think he will, it won't be becuase he has never raced on dirt before. i was just using this as an exmple of how derby jinxes can be munipluated.

[TommyCh]

This is an extremely generalized comment. In picking your horses for this race, the only thing you have to go on, obviously, are the preps which, for the most part, were run under much better circumstances: decent weather, smaller fields, lesser competition. The Derby is like no other race. I haven't been overly impressed with Pioneerof the Nile, but what if he doesn't really like synthetic and has just done well because he's a good horse? With the craziness of the Derby, it might be all he has to do is hang around, get some luck and be able to run 10 furlongs. The Derby borders on the bizarre as a race anyway and the synthetic-to-dirt conundrum is a huge complication. Sure Quality and Revenge and even Dunkirk seem to be the cream of the crop, but chances are a couple of these won't even be able to show it. I get mad at the connections for even entering horses who truly do not have a chance. It's a nice car, but you don't see a Toyota Prius in the Indy 500. We all know who the better horses are, but this is a real dart game.

[foul]

POTN is a May baby. That alone is enough in my opinion to keep him from winning.

foul

[LemonSoupKid]

TommyCH,

I'm with you 100%. What do you think is the max # of starters that should be allowed? Having to reply in an instant, the number 14 comes out of my mouth. What do you think?

Foul,

Couldn't you also say that (especially since he has shown he can win and outduel others) the May foal is actually a positive?

The kid

[foul]

the kid

I don't think so. I believe POTN is even a late May baby, that is a lot of maturity to give up. The average racing span of life for a horse is about 72 months. I equate this to a 19 year old young man competing against a 16-17 year old. Big difference in my book.

[joanied]

Pioneerof the Nile was foaled on May 5th
:)

[LemonSoupKid]

After recapping the 97 Triple Crown Series, (what a series!), I noticed that Captain Bodgit was a May foal. Say what you will, but that horse was right there every time, flying! Then he got hurt and Touch Gold did it in Elmont

LSK

[TommyCh]

LemonSoupKid,
To answer your question, I would say 14, main gate. But the criteria for selection also needs improvement, so that would have an effect. You just know you can toss at least four or five every year who don't belong. And I think the Derby might even hurt those four or five for the rest of their careers; it's grueling. Not to open a can or worms, but what is the history of the current system and the allowance of 20 horses in the field? When did that start?

[Relwob Owner]

the kid

I don't think so. I believe POTN is even a late May baby, that is a lot of maturity to give up. The average racing span of life for a horse is about 72 months. I equate this to a 19 year old young man competing against a 16-17 year old. Big difference in my book.

I think you can look at him being a May baby as a positive....he has done so well out West while just learning and he could be peaking at just the right time.....I could see the May baby argument as a negative if he hadnt beaten much, but since he has already accomplished so much, I think it shows he hasnt come close to fully getting it and he may this Saturday....couldnt have e better guy to get him there than Baffert, either....

[joanied]

I think you can look at him being a May baby as a positive....he has done so well out West while just learning and he could be peaking at just the right time.....I could see the May baby argument as a negative if he hadnt beaten much, but since he has already accomplished so much, I think it shows he hasnt come close to fully getting it and he may this Saturday....couldnt have e better guy to get him there than Baffert, either....

:ThmbUp: Yeah, baby:ThmbUp: